Tesla unlikely to Survive (Vol. 3)
Discussion
annodomini2 said:
skwdenyer said:
Interestingly, if the Semi can truly deliver 2kWh/mile then it may yet be cheaper than a diesel truck if charged at base, even with the price hikes - but only if electricity doesn’t breach 37.5p / kWh including VAT.
But the theoretical running cost benefit is much thinner than it once was.
Businesses are paying much more for electricity than home users they were not subject to the cap, on a solar forum I lurk on on Facebook, one business was quoted £2/day standing charge and £1/kwh for electric.But the theoretical running cost benefit is much thinner than it once was.
In theory the announced cost-caps will bring that back down again. In theory…Tesla did the job of making electric cars more mainstream.
It is fast as electric motors deliver power in a different way. That’s a party piece.
As a product, pragmatically speaking, is of average to low quality and, in my eyes pretty boring designs.
Some tech is/was interesting but that’s it. As product… not worth the price tag and certainly not aspirational by any measure.
It is fast as electric motors deliver power in a different way. That’s a party piece.
As a product, pragmatically speaking, is of average to low quality and, in my eyes pretty boring designs.
Some tech is/was interesting but that’s it. As product… not worth the price tag and certainly not aspirational by any measure.
CrgT16 said:
Tesla did the job of making electric cars more mainstream.
It is fast as electric motors deliver power in a different way. That’s a party piece.
As a product, pragmatically speaking, is of average to low quality and, in my eyes pretty boring designs.
Some tech is/was interesting but that’s it. As product… not worth the price tag and certainly not aspirational by any measure.
The battery performance, UI and self driving tech are all a leap ahead of mainstream i would sayIt is fast as electric motors deliver power in a different way. That’s a party piece.
As a product, pragmatically speaking, is of average to low quality and, in my eyes pretty boring designs.
Some tech is/was interesting but that’s it. As product… not worth the price tag and certainly not aspirational by any measure.
Since the last post, stock is down over 40%
Surveys put overall sentiment in negative territory
Inventory is now so high they’re offering discounts and free supercharging to shift
The removal of parking sensors has been seen as a disaster without an alternative
They’ll not go bust, but I can see the share price heading south to $30 which will still make them bigger than BMW. It’s probably more accurate to say the bubble is bursting
And you still see Tesla fans saying but the dip, the same thing they’ve been saying since it fell below $200 a share
Surveys put overall sentiment in negative territory
Inventory is now so high they’re offering discounts and free supercharging to shift
The removal of parking sensors has been seen as a disaster without an alternative
They’ll not go bust, but I can see the share price heading south to $30 which will still make them bigger than BMW. It’s probably more accurate to say the bubble is bursting
And you still see Tesla fans saying but the dip, the same thing they’ve been saying since it fell below $200 a share
Edited by Heres Johnny on Wednesday 28th December 06:36
Musk will be cashing out a lot more, the Twitter deal was a right mess, another 10 billion at the least in the next few months.
I saw a photo of the new Tesla truck, quality is very poor, truck owners need them to do a lot of miles and heavy work, I don't think they are up for the job.
I saw a photo of the new Tesla truck, quality is very poor, truck owners need them to do a lot of miles and heavy work, I don't think they are up for the job.
Golfgtimk28v said:
Musk will be cashing out a lot more, the Twitter deal was a right mess, another 10 billion at the least in the next few months.
I saw a photo of the new Tesla truck, quality is very poor, truck owners need them to do a lot of miles and heavy work, I don't think they are up for the job.
He’s promised he won’t sell shares for 12 months and probably not 24 months. He’ll have the regulator on his back if he does sell more, especially in the next month or 2 as it will be seen as a deliberate attempt to hold up the share price with misinformation.I saw a photo of the new Tesla truck, quality is very poor, truck owners need them to do a lot of miles and heavy work, I don't think they are up for the job.
The semi also has competition, maybe not the range but there are several alternatives. Europe won’t go near the semi either, and the bigger commercial benefit would come from delivery vans that could be sold globally. Built the next ups box van or Ford electric transit and you have something, only Ford have beaten them to it as you can but an electric transit.
The cybertruck.. the design already looks dated just like tech in sci-fi films shot in the 1980s. FSD name banned in California.
Heres Johnny said:
He’s promised he won’t sell shares for 12 months and probably not 24 months. He’ll have the regulator on his back if he does sell more, especially in the next month or 2 as it will be seen as a deliberate attempt to hold up the share price with misinformation.
The semi also has competition, maybe not the range but there are several alternatives. Europe won’t go near the semi either, and the bigger commercial benefit would come from delivery vans that could be sold globally. Built the next ups box van or Ford electric transit and you have something, only Ford have beaten them to it as you can but an electric transit.
The cybertruck.. the design already looks dated just like tech in sci-fi films shot in the 1980s. FSD name banned in California.
Why no Semi in Europe? Overall length?The semi also has competition, maybe not the range but there are several alternatives. Europe won’t go near the semi either, and the bigger commercial benefit would come from delivery vans that could be sold globally. Built the next ups box van or Ford electric transit and you have something, only Ford have beaten them to it as you can but an electric transit.
The cybertruck.. the design already looks dated just like tech in sci-fi films shot in the 1980s. FSD name banned in California.
Rivian’s Amazon van looks good. What’s happened to Arrival in the van space?
Tesla has achieved a huge amount. To get to all these factories is a huge achievement for a startup. But one wonders if they took their eye off the product pipeline ball?
Cybertruck bizarrely showed a lack of ambition - it all-but said “we can’t compete in the mainstream” which was a touch odd given Musk’s historical bullishness. Pickups IIRC are a protected market in the USA - 25% import tariff, meaning margins aren’t AIUI under as much threat as in the passenger car space.
South tdf said:
Smiljan said:
Takemeaway said:
For the the majority of car drivers....................Tesla remains aspirational
I know the sun is hot today but this really did make me laugh out loud.For the first time a few weeks ago I was impressed with a Tesla, it was the M3 Performance with boost and power upgrades?? It felt so much quicker than the normal performance one which is far from slow but has still not converted me.
Stomp the pedal, and hold on tight.
What an experience.
skwdenyer said:
Why no Semi in Europe? Overall length?
Rivian’s Amazon van looks good. What’s happened to Arrival in the van space?
Yes, A traditional design in Europe means you’d need to shorten the trailer to still comply with the overall length limitation. Rivian’s Amazon van looks good. What’s happened to Arrival in the van space?
Semi and Cyber truck are US market products they’ll need to develop Europe/Asia alternatives if they want to sell them outside of North America.
Arrival are still heading for volume production and customer deliveries probably next year (2023). The question is I suppose how many of the non binding LOI’s will convert over to binding orders. The EV box van space is lot more crowded now than two years ago with Rivian in the US and Ford / MB / Peugeot / Citroen in Europe. They may now be a little late to market.
b0rk said:
Yes, A traditional design in Europe means you’d need to shorten the trailer to still comply with the overall length limitation.
Semi and Cyber truck are US market products they’ll need to develop Europe/Asia alternatives if they want to sell them outside of North America.
Arrival are still heading for volume production and customer deliveries probably next year (2023). The question is I suppose how many of the non binding LOI’s will convert over to binding orders. The EV box van space is lot more crowded now than two years ago with Rivian in the US and Ford / MB / Peugeot / Citroen in Europe. They may now be a little late to market.
Given the obvious aero benefits (and the need for sake in order to make electric HGVs sensible), will we not see pressure for regulatory change on the overall length question?Semi and Cyber truck are US market products they’ll need to develop Europe/Asia alternatives if they want to sell them outside of North America.
Arrival are still heading for volume production and customer deliveries probably next year (2023). The question is I suppose how many of the non binding LOI’s will convert over to binding orders. The EV box van space is lot more crowded now than two years ago with Rivian in the US and Ford / MB / Peugeot / Citroen in Europe. They may now be a little late to market.
skwdenyer said:
b0rk said:
Yes, A traditional design in Europe means you’d need to shorten the trailer to still comply with the overall length limitation.
Semi and Cyber truck are US market products they’ll need to develop Europe/Asia alternatives if they want to sell them outside of North America.
Arrival are still heading for volume production and customer deliveries probably next year (2023). The question is I suppose how many of the non binding LOI’s will convert over to binding orders. The EV box van space is lot more crowded now than two years ago with Rivian in the US and Ford / MB / Peugeot / Citroen in Europe. They may now be a little late to market.
Given the obvious aero benefits (and the need for sake in order to make electric HGVs sensible), will we not see pressure for regulatory change on the overall length question?Semi and Cyber truck are US market products they’ll need to develop Europe/Asia alternatives if they want to sell them outside of North America.
Arrival are still heading for volume production and customer deliveries probably next year (2023). The question is I suppose how many of the non binding LOI’s will convert over to binding orders. The EV box van space is lot more crowded now than two years ago with Rivian in the US and Ford / MB / Peugeot / Citroen in Europe. They may now be a little late to market.
skwdenyer said:
Given the obvious aero benefits (and the need for sake in order to make electric HGVs sensible), will we not see pressure for regulatory change on the overall length question?
Possibly but regulators do not move quickly so not a near term solution. Think 5 to 10 years into the future if you want/need regulatory change. Also its not just a case of going yeah lets allow an extra 1m or so on the train length, turning circles would need to considered and road design guides checked for impact. The big European LGV makers all have EV designs under development or in a few case in production as cab-over designs, if the aero benefits of a traditional cab placement where that significant they would have been lobbying for such a change some time ago.
The semi being a day cab rather than a sleeper is more significant in where Telsa see there market being. The semi in its current form is for medium distance trunking between depots where tractor swaps are viable not general contract haulage.
b0rk said:
skwdenyer said:
Given the obvious aero benefits (and the need for sake in order to make electric HGVs sensible), will we not see pressure for regulatory change on the overall length question?
Possibly but regulators do not move quickly so not a near term solution. Think 5 to 10 years into the future if you want/need regulatory change. Also its not just a case of going yeah lets allow an extra 1m or so on the train length, turning circles would need to considered and road design guides checked for impact. The big European LGV makers all have EV designs under development or in a few case in production as cab-over designs, if the aero benefits of a traditional cab placement where that significant they would have been lobbying for such a change some time ago.
The semi being a day cab rather than a sleeper is more significant in where Telsa see there market being. The semi in its current form is for medium distance trunking between depots where tractor swaps are viable not general contract haulage.
Re the semi, there seems plenty of room for a sleeper compartment, unless I'm missing something.
skwdenyer said:
Sadly European (and I include the UK in that) regulators move very slowly on things like this.
Re the semi, there seems plenty of room for a sleeper compartment, unless I'm missing something.
The last interior video of a production unit showed a pair of fold down seats behind the driver then a fixed wall. The fold down seats are inline with the doors so less than ideal for a fold down bed and of course the glazed windows. Re the semi, there seems plenty of room for a sleeper compartment, unless I'm missing something.
https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/zsgi...
A sleeper cab is IMHO going to need to use the space between the interior cab rear wall and external rear wall. Maybe in the current ones this a dead void or maybe Tesla have stuff in the space. I can’t recall seeing anything that states what is or isn’t back there.
Listened to Teslas earnings call last night
Musk talking about 3 years of hell with the M3 getting it ramped up, brand new way of building cars but finally happy with where they got to after 3 years. With 1.2m sales of MY last year, out of total 1.8m, that must mean 0.5m model 3 sales?
Maybe the penny will drop that all this investment in building cars this way and the difficulty of building cars in a way thats completely bespoke to Tesla, that by the time you get your production right, people are already bored with your cars. 0.5m M3 sales isn't very many and by all accounts, seems like the M3 highland is getting a lukewarm reception.
Are they going to do this all over again with their compact car?
What happens when people are bored of the MY? Giga casting doesn't allow for wholesale changes, only cosmetic tweaks. Maybe the MY and M3 casting machines are ready for scrap not long after they get production right, unless Tesla are going to try and flog the same car over and over without a proper MKII coming to market? Seems a crazy strategy if that's the case.
Is it a misjudgement from Tesla to put so much effort into their style of construction that their hands are tied and they can't evolve their model line up properly?
Musk talking about 3 years of hell with the M3 getting it ramped up, brand new way of building cars but finally happy with where they got to after 3 years. With 1.2m sales of MY last year, out of total 1.8m, that must mean 0.5m model 3 sales?
Maybe the penny will drop that all this investment in building cars this way and the difficulty of building cars in a way thats completely bespoke to Tesla, that by the time you get your production right, people are already bored with your cars. 0.5m M3 sales isn't very many and by all accounts, seems like the M3 highland is getting a lukewarm reception.
Are they going to do this all over again with their compact car?
What happens when people are bored of the MY? Giga casting doesn't allow for wholesale changes, only cosmetic tweaks. Maybe the MY and M3 casting machines are ready for scrap not long after they get production right, unless Tesla are going to try and flog the same car over and over without a proper MKII coming to market? Seems a crazy strategy if that's the case.
Is it a misjudgement from Tesla to put so much effort into their style of construction that their hands are tied and they can't evolve their model line up properly?
Instead of the dumb af Cybertruck that only appeals to children and immature adults, and falls short in all of the promised areas (range, price, availability), they should have made a "normal" truck to compete with the F150 Lightning, Rivian R1T, Hummer, Ram, etc. They might have even got to market before those companies too.
They have seriously dropped the ball not getting a Model 2 out to market last year, apparently it is not coming until 2025 so is at least 18-24 months late to the party. A $25,000/£25,000 compact Tesla would have been a game changer in a key battleground. As it is, the Chinese are increasingly legacy manufacturers are eating their lunch.
The 3 and Y are still decent cars, and people are still buying them, but it feels to me that other manufacturers are advancing far more quickly than Tesla, who seem to be treading water with those models.
They have seriously dropped the ball not getting a Model 2 out to market last year, apparently it is not coming until 2025 so is at least 18-24 months late to the party. A $25,000/£25,000 compact Tesla would have been a game changer in a key battleground. As it is, the Chinese are increasingly legacy manufacturers are eating their lunch.
The 3 and Y are still decent cars, and people are still buying them, but it feels to me that other manufacturers are advancing far more quickly than Tesla, who seem to be treading water with those models.
Durzel said:
Instead of the dumb af Cybertruck that only appeals to children and immature adults, and falls short in all of the promised areas (range, price, availability), they should have made a "normal" truck to compete with the F150 Lightning, Rivian R1T, Hummer, Ram, etc. They might have even got to market before those companies too.
They have seriously dropped the ball not getting a Model 2 out to market last year, apparently it is not coming until 2025 so is at least 18-24 months late to the party. A $25,000/£25,000 compact Tesla would have been a game changer in a key battleground. As it is, the Chinese are increasingly legacy manufacturers are eating their lunch.
The 3 and Y are still decent cars, and people are still buying them, but it feels to me that other manufacturers are advancing far more quickly than Tesla, who seem to be treading water with those models.
Agree with your first two points. On your last point, Tesla seem to be putting effort into improving the production efficiency of the Model 3 and Y which is behind the scenes and so doesn't get much visibility. However, that brings them a cost advantage as they continue to build these two models at scale. And a key issue for increasing EV adoption rate is getting the price down and ideally getting below price parity with the equivalent ICE car. As Tesla will likely build somewhere close to 2 million model 3 and Y cars this year they have a decent chance of doing this.They have seriously dropped the ball not getting a Model 2 out to market last year, apparently it is not coming until 2025 so is at least 18-24 months late to the party. A $25,000/£25,000 compact Tesla would have been a game changer in a key battleground. As it is, the Chinese are increasingly legacy manufacturers are eating their lunch.
The 3 and Y are still decent cars, and people are still buying them, but it feels to me that other manufacturers are advancing far more quickly than Tesla, who seem to be treading water with those models.
Plus there has been some (fairly) decent progress on FSD including a complete re-write, combined 'single stack', and a move to a new 'neutral net' architecture for training. Yes, we have been promised FSD 'jam tomorrow' by Musk for the last few years, but I think it would harsh not to acknowledge some of these steps are very time consuming, and expensive, probably necessary, and seem to be in broadly the right direction.
Gassing Station | Tesla | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff