Tesla unlikely to Survive (Vol. 3)
Discussion
LivLL said:
I hadn't realised there was an imminent Mk2 Model Y. It hasn't been out long enough yet to need it I wouldn't have thought.
Lots of rumours but no release dates or other info from Tesla that I can see.
There are still a bunch of Mk 1 Model 3's in inventory - LR RWD at £42k for example but the PCP rates are nuts.
I think the Model Y would benefit from an interior update (even though I've just had one delivered for my wife). It's a fantastic car, but applying the changes they have done for the new Model 3 would make it even better. Lots of rumours but no release dates or other info from Tesla that I can see.
There are still a bunch of Mk 1 Model 3's in inventory - LR RWD at £42k for example but the PCP rates are nuts.
Re the older model RWD Model 3, they were being cleared out with 4 year interest free finance (which was a brilliant deal), so I think when someone at Tesla realises they still have a few left, they will need to apply a better finance offer to get them gone.
EddieSteadyGo said:
TBH I wonder if Tesla are really a leader anymore in cell battery technology. Seems they are licensing more and more from CATL.
However, I think Tesla will be paying market rate for their batteries, considering their buying power and relationship with CATL. That would mean their cost prices will be now far below $120/kwh.
Just one part of the reason for the reduction in battery prices is the cost of lithium carbonate. It's only a component of the cost, but it is fallen by over 80% from the peak in Nov 2022.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium
I've read that the costs of nickel and cobalt have also fallen - by 40 and 60% but I can't remember which way round!However, I think Tesla will be paying market rate for their batteries, considering their buying power and relationship with CATL. That would mean their cost prices will be now far below $120/kwh.
Just one part of the reason for the reduction in battery prices is the cost of lithium carbonate. It's only a component of the cost, but it is fallen by over 80% from the peak in Nov 2022.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium
EddieSteadyGo said:
LivLL said:
I hadn't realised there was an imminent Mk2 Model Y. It hasn't been out long enough yet to need it I wouldn't have thought.
Lots of rumours but no release dates or other info from Tesla that I can see.
There are still a bunch of Mk 1 Model 3's in inventory - LR RWD at £42k for example but the PCP rates are nuts.
I think the Model Y would benefit from an interior update (even though I've just had one delivered for my wife). It's a fantastic car, but applying the changes they have done for the new Model 3 would make it even better. Lots of rumours but no release dates or other info from Tesla that I can see.
There are still a bunch of Mk 1 Model 3's in inventory - LR RWD at £42k for example but the PCP rates are nuts.
Re the older model RWD Model 3, they were being cleared out with 4 year interest free finance (which was a brilliant deal), so I think when someone at Tesla realises they still have a few left, they will need to apply a better finance offer to get them gone.
It's true there's no official date for the refresh, but it seems guaranteed it's going to happen at some point soon, and that always puts some people off committing to the soon to be 'old' new car.
essayer said:
My view is that Tesla need more colours. Blue, white, black, grey, red. BORING
Agree! And a basic selection of zero cost colours, not just white.For one of the more exciting car brands of recent times, it's ridiculous they've eroded some of that USP by flooding the roads with facsimile cars. It makes the cars the opposite of special and interesting.
TheDeuce said:
Agree! And a basic selection of zero cost colours, not just white.
For one of the more exciting car brands of recent times, it's ridiculous they've eroded some of that USP by flooding the roads with facsimile cars. It makes the cars the opposite of special and interesting.
But they are obsessed with making production as efficient and cheap as possibleFor one of the more exciting car brands of recent times, it's ridiculous they've eroded some of that USP by flooding the roads with facsimile cars. It makes the cars the opposite of special and interesting.
Puzzles said:
TheDeuce said:
Agree! And a basic selection of zero cost colours, not just white.
For one of the more exciting car brands of recent times, it's ridiculous they've eroded some of that USP by flooding the roads with facsimile cars. It makes the cars the opposite of special and interesting.
But they are obsessed with making production as efficient and cheap as possibleFor one of the more exciting car brands of recent times, it's ridiculous they've eroded some of that USP by flooding the roads with facsimile cars. It makes the cars the opposite of special and interesting.
soupdragon1 said:
Breaking news
Tesla compact (model 2?) has been shelved and won't be made after all
That 20m cars a year target was dead a long time ago IMO, but it's official now by the looks of it.
Musk is saying Reuters (who reported it originally) are "lying".Tesla compact (model 2?) has been shelved and won't be made after all
That 20m cars a year target was dead a long time ago IMO, but it's official now by the looks of it.
Crazy as it sounds, it looks very much like Musk is focusing this new car on being the long awaited 'robotaxi'. They were always going to be built on the same platform, but maybe now they aren't going to bother with the version which needed a steering wheel.
Musk is putting huge focus onto FSD, with "ver12" which is the brand-new, rewritten, end-to-end machine learning version. It does seem improved, although still not perfect. Although within the last few months they have already surpassed where they got over the last few years of versions 1-11.
EddieSteadyGo said:
soupdragon1 said:
Breaking news
Tesla compact (model 2?) has been shelved and won't be made after all
That 20m cars a year target was dead a long time ago IMO, but it's official now by the looks of it.
Musk is saying Reuters (who reported it originally) are "lying".Tesla compact (model 2?) has been shelved and won't be made after all
That 20m cars a year target was dead a long time ago IMO, but it's official now by the looks of it.
Crazy as it sounds, it looks very much like Musk is focusing this new car on being the long awaited 'robotaxi'. They were always going to be built on the same platform, but maybe now they aren't going to bother with the version which needed a steering wheel.
Musk is putting huge focus onto FSD, with "ver12" which is the brand-new, rewritten, end-to-end machine learning version. It does seem improved, although still not perfect. Although within the last few months they have already surpassed where they got over the last few years of versions 1-11.
Article seems well nailed down on the facts tbh
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/TESLA-I...
soupdragon1 said:
Musky lad put the look emoji on this post...
So Elon is either lying too, or downright stupid.
I mean, if you're going to have a robotaxi, you'll make it a compact? Not much use for the airport run etc. It makes no sense.
Their modelling AFAIK is based on fulfilling urban ride jobs around the main US cities. A compact, cheap, car is ideal for that purpose. And the money-making opportunities are gigantic. I was watching a video of an analyst working through the numbers and, if they pull it off, the profit numbers were amazing per car.So Elon is either lying too, or downright stupid.
I mean, if you're going to have a robotaxi, you'll make it a compact? Not much use for the airport run etc. It makes no sense.
They’ve not registered a single mile above L2 and for robotaxi it needs to be L4 or L5. The gulf between these levels is far more than just whether the car can have a good go at doing it.
Waymo are required to have constant backup, I don’t see this being much different if they do get a permit to proceed
I see a “vision” event coming, maybe a steering wheel free car, and “coming soon” and then try and blame the regulators for holding them back even though they’ve not engaged with them on a constructive basis
Waymo are required to have constant backup, I don’t see this being much different if they do get a permit to proceed
I see a “vision” event coming, maybe a steering wheel free car, and “coming soon” and then try and blame the regulators for holding them back even though they’ve not engaged with them on a constructive basis
Gone fishing said:
They’ve not registered a single mile above L2 and for robotaxi it needs to be L4 or L5. The gulf between these levels is far more than just whether the car can have a good go at doing it.
Waymo are required to have constant backup, I don’t see this being much different if they do get a permit to proceed
I see a “vision” event coming, maybe a steering wheel free car, and “coming soon” and then try and blame the regulators for holding them back even though they’ve not engaged with them on a constructive basis
Having watched quite a few videos of people using FSD 12.3 its pretty clear they are way beyond L2. Cars driving through cities, along twisting roads and along freeways for extended periods with zero intervention from the driver. Steering around obstacles, through roadworks, selecting a parking spot and autoparking - this is not L2. And FSD 12.4 reportedly steps it on significantly further than that.Waymo are required to have constant backup, I don’t see this being much different if they do get a permit to proceed
I see a “vision” event coming, maybe a steering wheel free car, and “coming soon” and then try and blame the regulators for holding them back even though they’ve not engaged with them on a constructive basis
The barrier to robotaxis outside North America is regulatory. The UNECE World Vehicle Regulations currently ban anything that stretches it beyond simple ADAS. As an example, L2 is supposed to allow autosteer. Many cars have autosteer. But with a restriction on turning angle so that it cannot follow bends on roads unless they are gentle.
Ignore the haters and watch the videos. Now that FSD is out of Beta it is remarkable. Most of the information out there when you Google it simply hasn't caught up with what 12.3 is doing. So you need to watch the videos. WholeMarsCatalog on TwiX as a starter for 10.
JustGetATesla said:
Having watched quite a few videos of people using FSD 12.3 its pretty clear they are way beyond L2. Cars driving through cities, along twisting roads and along freeways for extended periods with zero intervention from the driver. Steering around obstacles, through roadworks, selecting a parking spot and autoparking - this is not L2. And FSD 12.4 reportedly steps it on significantly further than that.
The barrier to robotaxis outside North America is regulatory. The UNECE World Vehicle Regulations currently ban anything that stretches it beyond simple ADAS. As an example, L2 is supposed to allow autosteer. Many cars have autosteer. But with a restriction on turning angle so that it cannot follow bends on roads unless they are gentle.
Ignore the haters and watch the videos. Now that FSD is out of Beta it is remarkable. Most of the information out there when you Google it simply hasn't caught up with what 12.3 is doing. So you need to watch the videos. WholeMarsCatalog on TwiX as a starter for 10.
I’m sorry but you have no understanding of the levels if you think what Tesla offer is above L2The barrier to robotaxis outside North America is regulatory. The UNECE World Vehicle Regulations currently ban anything that stretches it beyond simple ADAS. As an example, L2 is supposed to allow autosteer. Many cars have autosteer. But with a restriction on turning angle so that it cannot follow bends on roads unless they are gentle.
Ignore the haters and watch the videos. Now that FSD is out of Beta it is remarkable. Most of the information out there when you Google it simply hasn't caught up with what 12.3 is doing. So you need to watch the videos. WholeMarsCatalog on TwiX as a starter for 10.
L3 and onwards is primarily the shift in responsibility (I prefer the word accountability) for driving, not who undertakes the task. That shift is massively underestimated.
This explains how you can have a less capable system driving at L3 than a very capable L2 system which is what we have with Mercedes v Tesla, and there’s good reason why the Mercedes system does what it does at the moment.
https://tesla-info.com/blog/self-driving-levels.ph...
JustGetATesla said:
Having watched quite a few videos of people using FSD 12.3 its pretty clear they are way beyond L2. Cars driving through cities, along twisting roads and along freeways for extended periods with zero intervention from the driver. Steering around obstacles, through roadworks, selecting a parking spot and autoparking - this is not L2. And FSD 12.4 reportedly steps it on significantly further than that.
The barrier to robotaxis outside North America is regulatory. The UNECE World Vehicle Regulations currently ban anything that stretches it beyond simple ADAS. As an example, L2 is supposed to allow autosteer. Many cars have autosteer. But with a restriction on turning angle so that it cannot follow bends on roads unless they are gentle.
Ignore the haters and watch the videos. Now that FSD is out of Beta it is remarkable. Most of the information out there when you Google it simply hasn't caught up with what 12.3 is doing. So you need to watch the videos. WholeMarsCatalog on TwiX as a starter for 10.
Whole mars is absolutely not a starter for 10. Just go on twitter and search FSD and get the good, the bad and the ugly, rather than cherry pick.The barrier to robotaxis outside North America is regulatory. The UNECE World Vehicle Regulations currently ban anything that stretches it beyond simple ADAS. As an example, L2 is supposed to allow autosteer. Many cars have autosteer. But with a restriction on turning angle so that it cannot follow bends on roads unless they are gentle.
Ignore the haters and watch the videos. Now that FSD is out of Beta it is remarkable. Most of the information out there when you Google it simply hasn't caught up with what 12.3 is doing. So you need to watch the videos. WholeMarsCatalog on TwiX as a starter for 10.
Or go to Reddit and look. People are getting it for free at the minute but are calling it unusable, unsafe etc.
It's miles away from being an actual useful product.
Ignore the haters? Ignore the simps too I would add to that, and try and find the balanced view in the middle.
soupdragon1 said:
Whole mars is absolutely not a starter for 10. Just go on twitter and search FSD and get the good, the bad and the ugly, rather than cherry pick.
Or go to Reddit and look. People are getting it for free at the minute but are calling it unusable, unsafe etc.
It's miles away from being an actual useful product.
Ignore the haters? Ignore the simps too I would add to that, and try and find the balanced view in the middle.
Its largely irrelevant outside the US anyway - we're not going to get it any time soon. Too big a regulatory challenge - if you set your Tesla off on robo taxi service and it kills someone, who is liable?Or go to Reddit and look. People are getting it for free at the minute but are calling it unusable, unsafe etc.
It's miles away from being an actual useful product.
Ignore the haters? Ignore the simps too I would add to that, and try and find the balanced view in the middle.
I am massively skeptical on this subject and have done quite a few videos poking a stick at it (and another out on Friday) - I'm not ramping this. Just pointing out that they do appear to have made a massive advance in the 12.3 release with supposedly 12.4 being another leap forward. Great. Lets assume 13.1 comes along and is flawless. Who is liable when the unmanned vehicle is involved in a crash with fatalities (as is inevitable).
Just because we can do a thing doesn't mean we automatically should...
FSD:
- Getting the cars to steer accurately, accelerate and brake safely and also assertively, to recognise road signs, pedestrians, other vehicles and unfamiliar obstructions accurately 99.9% of the time and make the right decisions 99.9% of the time is 10% of what it takes to achieve actual, useful FSD
- Getting the cars to do all the above, 99.99999999% of the time is the other 90% of what it takes to achieve FSD.
So far, 10% or less of the work has been done. It's easy to showcase the cars doing some very clever things - but it's all worthless, at least in terms of exceeding L2 basic driver aids, unless the car can do it all in a way where it can deal with literally any situation at least as accurately and competently as a human - and so dependably that you could spend a lifetime as a passenger and not expect to see a single error made - because any error could be deadly if you can't take control. We're so far from that.
- Getting the cars to steer accurately, accelerate and brake safely and also assertively, to recognise road signs, pedestrians, other vehicles and unfamiliar obstructions accurately 99.9% of the time and make the right decisions 99.9% of the time is 10% of what it takes to achieve actual, useful FSD
- Getting the cars to do all the above, 99.99999999% of the time is the other 90% of what it takes to achieve FSD.
So far, 10% or less of the work has been done. It's easy to showcase the cars doing some very clever things - but it's all worthless, at least in terms of exceeding L2 basic driver aids, unless the car can do it all in a way where it can deal with literally any situation at least as accurately and competently as a human - and so dependably that you could spend a lifetime as a passenger and not expect to see a single error made - because any error could be deadly if you can't take control. We're so far from that.
JustGetATesla said:
Its largely irrelevant outside the US anyway - we're not going to get it any time soon. Too big a regulatory challenge - if you set your Tesla off on robo taxi service and it kills someone, who is liable?
I am massively skeptical on this subject and have done quite a few videos poking a stick at it (and another out on Friday) - I'm not ramping this. Just pointing out that they do appear to have made a massive advance in the 12.3 release with supposedly 12.4 being another leap forward. Great. Lets assume 13.1 comes along and is flawless. Who is liable when the unmanned vehicle is involved in a crash with fatalities (as is inevitable).
Just because we can do a thing doesn't mean we automatically should...
Ah it’s you.. maybe fact check you videos before posting in future, your range video was unbelievably wrongI am massively skeptical on this subject and have done quite a few videos poking a stick at it (and another out on Friday) - I'm not ramping this. Just pointing out that they do appear to have made a massive advance in the 12.3 release with supposedly 12.4 being another leap forward. Great. Lets assume 13.1 comes along and is flawless. Who is liable when the unmanned vehicle is involved in a crash with fatalities (as is inevitable).
Just because we can do a thing doesn't mean we automatically should...
Gassing Station | Tesla | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff