Kit car industry dead in 10 years
Discussion
Equus said:
98elise said:
The average driver will need 7kWh per day. That's like running a hob for an hour.
You must have a f
king big cooker!The average hob runs at about 1-1.5kWh.per ring.
It's kW for power not kWh, which is energy
98elise said:
Did you do physics? The average driver will need 7kWh per day. That's like running a hob for an hour. If you spread that out over say 10 hours late evening to morning then you're looking at a 700wats. That won't even trouble a 13amp socket.
7kWh, at I understand about 0.2kWh/km is 20-22miles, a 10mile drive.A quick suggests the average mileage for a uk car is 7600 miles in 2018, which is 21 miles a day, so that sort of stacks up. This figure is going down, and the number of cars per household goes up.
Around 1.2 cars per household, with 76% of households and 82% of adults have access to a car or van.
So to correct from car to household, 7*1.2=8.4 kWH per household additional load.
Which I would suggest is quote a lot more than most would us with an electric hob, if only because like our a lot of hobs are gas!
The average electric consumption per household has been under 4000kWh for halve a decade, 3760 in 2017, which is 10.3kWh day.
So on average, you would move from 10.3kWh to 18.7 which is over an 80% increase. Nearly double.
Which I would suggest is very signification both in terms of generation and distribution capacities.
Daniel
dhutch said:
98elise said:
Did you do physics? The average driver will need 7kWh per day. That's like running a hob for an hour. If you spread that out over say 10 hours late evening to morning then you're looking at a 700wats. That won't even trouble a 13amp socket.
7kWh, at I understand about 0.2kWh/km is 20-22miles, a 10mile drive.A quick suggests the average mileage for a uk car is 7600 miles in 2018, which is 21 miles a day, so that sort of stacks up. This figure is going down, and the number of cars per household goes up.
Around 1.2 cars per household, with 76% of households and 82% of adults have access to a car or van.
So to correct from car to household, 7*1.2=8.4 kWH per household additional load.
Which I would suggest is quote a lot more than most would us with an electric hob, if only because like our a lot of hobs are gas!
The average electric consumption per household has been under 4000kWh for halve a decade, 3760 in 2017, which is 10.3kWh day.
So on average, you would move from 10.3kWh to 18.7 which is over an 80% increase. Nearly double.
Which I would suggest is very signification both in terms of generation and distribution capacities.
Daniel
In addition it would be simple to design a charge controller to only fast charge when there was very little household load. I could design something to do that in about 10 minutes and build it with components from Maplin.
dhutch said:
Loverly, still a nonsense statement.
Slight hyperbole on the time required and the sourcing of components, perhaps, but in fairness it's really not complicated.It wouldn't be a big deal to go one step beyond moderating charge rates against household load, and get the chargers to communicate with the National Grid, to moderate them against overall load on the Grid, too.
I don't doubt that increased EV use will have to dovetail in with a smart grid, charging at times outside of peak demand, and even feeding back into the grid when required. Likely it wont even have to be that smart, as the trends and periods are really fairly boring, but equally we are doing woeful job of it at the moment.
What this space. I have no doubt it will change a lot and work, but it is still the case that if we all switch to EV's overnight tomorrow, the infrastructure as currently in place, would fail to sustain it.
Daniel
What this space. I have no doubt it will change a lot and work, but it is still the case that if we all switch to EV's overnight tomorrow, the infrastructure as currently in place, would fail to sustain it.
Daniel
dhutch said:
...it is still the case that if we all switch to EV's overnight tomorrow, the infrastructure as currently in place, would fail to sustain it.
But we're not going to all switch to EV's overnight. Neither are we going to all switch to electric heating of our homes with heat pumps. Even if the most extreme ideas currently being touted took place - to not only ban fossil fuel boilers on new homes from 2025, but to ban sales of replacement fossil fuel domestic boilers altogether from that date - there will be a gradual take-up of both EV's and electric domestic heating. This will certainly be challenging for the National Grid, but far from impossible, and they are planning for it.
And the point is that they don't need the infrastructure yet, and we'd be calling them all sorts of idiots if they did implement it early - at a cost of many £billions - just to have the over-capacity sitting there unused.
It makes absolutely no financial sense to develop infrastructure far ahead of demand.
We seem to have wandered a little off the OP's original statement re the kitcar market being dead in 10 years (which it pretty much will be, it's already on life support!) & unless I've missed it amongst all the argument about whether we will have grid capacity or not, no one appears to have mentioned the minor bit of legislation that stops you from putting anything thro' IVA that is over 48V, if over 48V, then the following applies
"In order for a car to be IVA'd it must first pass R100, an EEC directive that needs to be approved by JLR or Mira and overseen by VOSA's tech arm known as VCA. See section 69 in the IVA manual. Cost is quoted between £6,000 and £16,000"
Now, admittedly the DVLA have also said
"Notifying DVLA of a voltage change after approval is not required or recorded"
However, you then get into a minefield of :- are you insured, is it road legal etc etc & believe me the first time someone amateur building gets electrocuted & dies there will be one humongous hue & cry & any loopholes will surely be blocked
You can still take something that is already road legal & make it electric without any further testing as long as you're not modifying the chassis (monocoque in most cases), but that's not really a kitcar is it? as it will still look like what it was originally (which could of course be a 7 or a GT40 or an Ultima or whatever as long as it had been previously registered)
All in all I wouldn't say the futures looking rosy for amateur built cars
"In order for a car to be IVA'd it must first pass R100, an EEC directive that needs to be approved by JLR or Mira and overseen by VOSA's tech arm known as VCA. See section 69 in the IVA manual. Cost is quoted between £6,000 and £16,000"
Now, admittedly the DVLA have also said
"Notifying DVLA of a voltage change after approval is not required or recorded"
However, you then get into a minefield of :- are you insured, is it road legal etc etc & believe me the first time someone amateur building gets electrocuted & dies there will be one humongous hue & cry & any loopholes will surely be blocked
You can still take something that is already road legal & make it electric without any further testing as long as you're not modifying the chassis (monocoque in most cases), but that's not really a kitcar is it? as it will still look like what it was originally (which could of course be a 7 or a GT40 or an Ultima or whatever as long as it had been previously registered)
All in all I wouldn't say the futures looking rosy for amateur built cars
We have got well off-topic.
Interesting about the current regs, which does look like new-built road-going electric only cars will need some catching up on the regs. Presumably unlike 're-engineing' an existing car with ev running gear, which it does appear a couple of instances exist. If its not iva required, presumably, you just get the v5 updated....
However my point with the was the reverse really, in that if we cant have new IC engined cars, in only a few years from now, then that will quite quickly closes up the 'cheap hot hatch' route for those who want something with an engine, and or to do a bit of tinkering. Sooo, maybe the ban on new IC cars will create an interest in kit build IC carss?
Daniel
Interesting about the current regs, which does look like new-built road-going electric only cars will need some catching up on the regs. Presumably unlike 're-engineing' an existing car with ev running gear, which it does appear a couple of instances exist. If its not iva required, presumably, you just get the v5 updated....
However my point with the was the reverse really, in that if we cant have new IC engined cars, in only a few years from now, then that will quite quickly closes up the 'cheap hot hatch' route for those who want something with an engine, and or to do a bit of tinkering. Sooo, maybe the ban on new IC cars will create an interest in kit build IC carss?
Daniel
What hasn't been mentioned on here is the impact of the EU's new General Safety Regulation. Briefly put this mandates a load of Driver Assistance functions, such as emergency lane keeping and automatic emergency braking from 2022 / 2024 depending on the type of vehicle. This will impact all the Ariel / Caterham type vehicles never mind us home builders. It's a massive topic in the low volume car industry at the moment.
Steve Dean said:
I've not seen a single statement of how the National Grid is going to provide all the power for the Electric vehicles that everyone is going to be forced to buy. To put this in some real world context ..... a friend who preaches about how they have a smart meter and go round their house turning off single light bulbs, has just purchased an Electric car and are crapping themselves as they've discovered that charging their car uses more electricity than all the appliances in their house being turned on at once.
Discuss !!!!!!!
Here you go, this is from before the recent announcement but is valid nonetheless:Discuss !!!!!!!
https://theenergyst.com/millions-electric-vehicles...
article said:
Asked whether the UK government’s target to phase out new petrol and diesel cars by 2040 should be brought forward to 2030, Cooper said he believed National Grid “would support a more ambitious target” and could “absolutely” cope in that scenario.
The ENA’s Reid said network companies worked on the premise that there could be a “bow wave” before that, based not on government policy, but customer choice.
Cooper agreed. “[Regardless of government mandates] the list of consumers buying combustion cars post 2030 will be a very short list.”
He said even if ramp up of electric vehicles met its most aggressive scenarios, the transmission system would not require a “wholesale upgrade”.
The ENA’s Reid said network companies worked on the premise that there could be a “bow wave” before that, based not on government policy, but customer choice.
Cooper agreed. “[Regardless of government mandates] the list of consumers buying combustion cars post 2030 will be a very short list.”
He said even if ramp up of electric vehicles met its most aggressive scenarios, the transmission system would not require a “wholesale upgrade”.
VxDuncan said:
What hasn't been mentioned on here is the impact of the EU's new General Safety Regulation. Briefly put this mandates a load of Driver Assistance functions, such as emergency lane keeping and automatic emergency braking from 2022 / 2024 depending on the type of vehicle. This will impact all the Ariel / Caterham type vehicles never mind us home builders. It's a massive topic in the low volume car industry at the moment.
Surely low volume builders would be exempt, just like they are with a host of current UK/EU/World standards.dhutch said:
VxDuncan said:
What hasn't been mentioned on here is the impact of the EU's new General Safety Regulation. Briefly put this mandates a load of Driver Assistance functions, such as emergency lane keeping and automatic emergency braking from 2022 / 2024 depending on the type of vehicle. This will impact all the Ariel / Caterham type vehicles never mind us home builders. It's a massive topic in the low volume car industry at the moment.
Surely low volume builders would be exempt, just like they are with a host of current UK/EU/World standards.Seems light years ago since the halcyon age of kit car building in the late 1980's/early 90's.....Stoneleigh/Newark/Donington shows jam packed.
The bitter feud between Peter Filby and Den Tanner, rival mag owners
Plentiful supplies of RWD donor Granadas, Sierras, Cortinas with Pinto engines etc
Happy days?
The bitter feud between Peter Filby and Den Tanner, rival mag owners
Plentiful supplies of RWD donor Granadas, Sierras, Cortinas with Pinto engines etc
Happy days?
Wacky Racer said:
Seems light years ago since the halcyon age of kit car building in the late 1980's/early 90's.....Stoneleigh/Newark/Donington shows jam packed.
The bitter feud between Peter Filby and Den Tanner, rival mag owners
Plentiful supplies of RWD donor Granadas, Sierras, Cortinas with Pinto engines etc
Happy days?
Have to agree - bought a Westfield Kit in 1999 from the (long gone ) Harrogate show after two years of research - industry is now unrecognisable compared to these days, makes me very sad to say it but, I think dead in 10 yrs is being very optimistic - I can see Stoneleigh & Newark not happening this year now - so maybe 2-3 years left for home builders then a few of the big , long term players just producing factory built specials for well heelded customers wanting a classic replica or track day monsterThe bitter feud between Peter Filby and Den Tanner, rival mag owners
Plentiful supplies of RWD donor Granadas, Sierras, Cortinas with Pinto engines etc
Happy days?
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