Brazil scenario #1
Discussion
So Ferrari get their car working well at Interlagos and are running 1-2, Massa finding something from within to lead at home after the final stops.
McLaren are running 3-4, Alonso digging deep and using all his experience to hold off Lewis in the race of his life. He's catching the Ferraris' too. Only enough to catch them with 3 laps to go but anything's possible this year.
Kimi's only hope is to take the win and hope Lewis drops out before the flag. There are rumours that Lewis overtook under waved yellows at turn one. Todt makes the call.
What does Felipe do? Does he play the corporate puppet role or will he go all out for glory at home knowing the team would be lynched by the crowd if they aren't happy? He does have a latin temperament after all and sometimes it's difficult to think about next year when you're at home and you can barely hear your own engine above the samba drums in the crowd. Besides, team orders aren't allowed. And anyway, where is that Mr Alonso driving next year?
McLaren are running 3-4, Alonso digging deep and using all his experience to hold off Lewis in the race of his life. He's catching the Ferraris' too. Only enough to catch them with 3 laps to go but anything's possible this year.
Kimi's only hope is to take the win and hope Lewis drops out before the flag. There are rumours that Lewis overtook under waved yellows at turn one. Todt makes the call.
What does Felipe do? Does he play the corporate puppet role or will he go all out for glory at home knowing the team would be lynched by the crowd if they aren't happy? He does have a latin temperament after all and sometimes it's difficult to think about next year when you're at home and you can barely hear your own engine above the samba drums in the crowd. Besides, team orders aren't allowed. And anyway, where is that Mr Alonso driving next year?
Edited by kevin ritson on Sunday 7th October 18:43
There is NO WAY that Massa would disobey the team orders that he indubitably will get (has already got, more likely).
This is what made today's outcome so gutting - Lewis had succeeded in eliminating Massa's role as spoiler, which role he will have a second opportunity to play in a fortnight from now.
Imagine that the team's positions were reversed, and Ferrari drivers were at 107 and 103, with a McLaren guy at 100. You could almost guarantee that one of the Ferrari drivers would win the title, because the factory would pick the favoured son and force the other to work on his behalf.
In contrast, McLaren will allow each driver an equal opportunity to win, which necessarily and ironically will reduce the likelihood that either will do so.
This is what made today's outcome so gutting - Lewis had succeeded in eliminating Massa's role as spoiler, which role he will have a second opportunity to play in a fortnight from now.
Imagine that the team's positions were reversed, and Ferrari drivers were at 107 and 103, with a McLaren guy at 100. You could almost guarantee that one of the Ferrari drivers would win the title, because the factory would pick the favoured son and force the other to work on his behalf.
In contrast, McLaren will allow each driver an equal opportunity to win, which necessarily and ironically will reduce the likelihood that either will do so.
LH Wins if:
-1st or 2nd
-3rd and 4th if FA doesn't win
-5th if FA does worse than 2nd
-6th and 7th if FA does worse than 2nd and KR doesn't win
-8th if FA does worse than 3rd and KR worse than 2nd
-every other finish if FA is worse than 4th and KR worse than 2nd
FA wins if:
-1st if LH 3rd or worse
-2nd if LH 6th or worse
-3rd if LH 8th or worse and KR doesn't win
-4th if KR doesn't win and LH doesn't score
KR wins if:
1st if LH worse than 5th and FA worse than 2nd
2nd if LH worse than 8th and FA worse than 3rd
That covers every possibility
with acknowlegements to Club Scuderia!
-1st or 2nd
-3rd and 4th if FA doesn't win
-5th if FA does worse than 2nd
-6th and 7th if FA does worse than 2nd and KR doesn't win
-8th if FA does worse than 3rd and KR worse than 2nd
-every other finish if FA is worse than 4th and KR worse than 2nd
FA wins if:
-1st if LH 3rd or worse
-2nd if LH 6th or worse
-3rd if LH 8th or worse and KR doesn't win
-4th if KR doesn't win and LH doesn't score
KR wins if:
1st if LH worse than 5th and FA worse than 2nd
2nd if LH worse than 8th and FA worse than 3rd
That covers every possibility
with acknowlegements to Club Scuderia!
Edited by geofflowe on Sunday 7th October 19:30
sniff petrol said:
hornet said:
What happens if LH is fifth with FA second?
LH = 107+4=111
FA = 103+8=111
Both have four wins, so what would decide the title? Qualifying positions?
LH wins championship due to more 2nd places.LH = 107+4=111
FA = 103+8=111
Both have four wins, so what would decide the title? Qualifying positions?
hornet said:
What happens if LH is fifth with FA second?
LH = 107+4=111
FA = 103+8=111
Both have four wins, so what would decide the title? Qualifying positions?
In that situation, I believe that the FIA President will invoke his Extraordinary Powers to declare that, since neither driver had managed to distinguish himself from the other, the title must go to the highest-scoring driver who was not content to settle for a draw. Otherwise, F1's failure to have a clear-cut winner would bring the sport into disrepute.LH = 107+4=111
FA = 103+8=111
Both have four wins, so what would decide the title? Qualifying positions?
This would give the title to Raikkonen.
hornet said:
sniff petrol said:
hornet said:
What happens if LH is fifth with FA second?
LH = 107+4=111
FA = 103+8=111
Both have four wins, so what would decide the title? Qualifying positions?
LH wins championship due to more 2nd places.LH = 107+4=111
FA = 103+8=111
Both have four wins, so what would decide the title? Qualifying positions?
At the risk of stating the obvious, Hamilton and Mclaren have seriously screwed up here. Although Lewis is in the best position of the 3 contenders, it’s impossible to predict what’ll happen at the last race in Brazil.
In normal circumstances, it’d be reasonable to assume that Massa is the least likely of the four to win. However, Interlagos is his home race, he won there only last year and he has the least pressure on his shoulders, going into the race. The others can’t afford to make a mistake; he can.
The Mclaren MP4-22 is arguably better suited to the tight turns and kerb-riding at Interlagos. However, any advantage it might enjoy will probably be negated by Ferrari team orders. Massa will almost certainly be fuelled light and used in any way he can to help Kimi’s cause.
Hamilton’s ability to learn tracks has been impressive thus far and he’s had the legs on Alonso of late but he has no experience of racing at Interlagos, while Alonso won there in 2005 and seemingly loves the place. And what about Kimi? If he finds himself fighting for position with Hamilton on the track, his only hope of winning the WDC lies with finishing in front of the Mclaren and his attempts to get past will be suitably aggressive. Kimi or Massa tagging Hamilton and taking him out of the race would be the nightmare scenario, for me.
I can’t begin to imagine the nerves and tension that Hamilton will be fighting in Brazil. Kimi and Alonso had all but given up hope of the WDC in recent weeks. Anything they achieve in Interlagos is just a bonus to them. Hamilton, on the other hand, had the championship in the bag, needing only to finish in front of Alonso at China to seal it. The psychological effects of coming so close but failing may prove to haunt him. Will he able to fight the fear of losing and take the title? I’m not sure I would.
In normal circumstances, it’d be reasonable to assume that Massa is the least likely of the four to win. However, Interlagos is his home race, he won there only last year and he has the least pressure on his shoulders, going into the race. The others can’t afford to make a mistake; he can.
The Mclaren MP4-22 is arguably better suited to the tight turns and kerb-riding at Interlagos. However, any advantage it might enjoy will probably be negated by Ferrari team orders. Massa will almost certainly be fuelled light and used in any way he can to help Kimi’s cause.
Hamilton’s ability to learn tracks has been impressive thus far and he’s had the legs on Alonso of late but he has no experience of racing at Interlagos, while Alonso won there in 2005 and seemingly loves the place. And what about Kimi? If he finds himself fighting for position with Hamilton on the track, his only hope of winning the WDC lies with finishing in front of the Mclaren and his attempts to get past will be suitably aggressive. Kimi or Massa tagging Hamilton and taking him out of the race would be the nightmare scenario, for me.
I can’t begin to imagine the nerves and tension that Hamilton will be fighting in Brazil. Kimi and Alonso had all but given up hope of the WDC in recent weeks. Anything they achieve in Interlagos is just a bonus to them. Hamilton, on the other hand, had the championship in the bag, needing only to finish in front of Alonso at China to seal it. The psychological effects of coming so close but failing may prove to haunt him. Will he able to fight the fear of losing and take the title? I’m not sure I would.
kevin ritson said:
I'd rather Kimi doesn't have it. After all their strops, Ferrari don't deserve one title this year, let alone two.
I think both Ferrari drivers have been exemplary on and off the track this year. Massa and LH are friends, and even RD has had kind words for Kimi this year.flemke said:
hornet said:
What happens if LH is fifth with FA second?
LH = 107+4=111
FA = 103+8=111
Both have four wins, so what would decide the title? Qualifying positions?
In that situation, I believe that the FIA President will invoke his Extraordinary Powers to declare that, since neither driver had managed to distinguish himself from the other, the title must go to the highest-scoring driver who was not content to settle for a draw. Otherwise, F1's failure to have a clear-cut winner would bring the sport into disrepute.LH = 107+4=111
FA = 103+8=111
Both have four wins, so what would decide the title? Qualifying positions?
This would give the title to Raikkonen.
I do think it will take an extraordinary amount of luck (or FIA intervention) for KR to win the championship... it certainly looks like its either Hamliton or Alonso - lets just hope they don't take each other off at the first corner!
Or, conversely, an integral part of Lewis' ongoing preparation has been to expect something to go wrong - some sheer bad luck. He's had that now and he's still in the best position of all three contenders to win the title in the last race.
Whilst I don't believe McLaren will do, or have done, anything to sabotage Alonso's car, Lewis can probably feel he has the balance of support from the team by virtue of Alonso's busy mouth.
In all, and in the context of what his expectations must have been at the start of the season - I'd have thought Lewis is in a brilliant position and there's no reason for him to be otherwise than in a very positive frame of mind as to his prospects.
Whilst I don't believe McLaren will do, or have done, anything to sabotage Alonso's car, Lewis can probably feel he has the balance of support from the team by virtue of Alonso's busy mouth.
In all, and in the context of what his expectations must have been at the start of the season - I'd have thought Lewis is in a brilliant position and there's no reason for him to be otherwise than in a very positive frame of mind as to his prospects.
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