Is the bubble about to burst?

[g7jhp]

roygarth said:

If you add buyers premium of what, 15%? It doesn't look so bad, even for the Porsches. The Ferraris are selling within estimate, albeit towards the low end.

Not my definition of a bubble bursting but who knows....

^^^ Not sure why people say this.

Correct me if I'm wrong but the price guide is supposed to be for the hammer price (before other fees).

If you expected £250-280k on a 993 Turbo S and were offered £190k I doubt you'd be happy.

People are happy to shout when expectations are being exceeded, but play it down when they fall horribly short.

In this case it's not a one off it's clearly across the board (at this auction).

[Black_mamba]

...is it going to burst, not sure, but here is my experience. I've just sold my '89 911, priced at between what the dealer bid was and what they would retail it for, idea being the buyer can spend a few £'s getting the car even better having spent dealer money or so, I thought everyone would be a winner. The car went up for sale in April, sold end of August, in that time I had about 20 genuine enquires, half a dozen visits and test drives, and a final movement of about 10% of my asking price. Hardly flying off the shelf.

Many of the equivalent cars that were price similarly to mine, at the start of my sale both privately and at dealers are still there. 'Normal' (average miles 100k or so, good service history, no rust) are not shifting quickly, most of the enquiries I took were people wanting an 'investment' car to go with their other 'investment' cars. I think that the gulf between a sellers expectation (built on the ever rising 'bubble' promise of future gains) and the expectations of buyers (who are expecting a lot more from a car they are tipping alot of money into) is very wide. I went to a couple of auctions too over the summer, as an Auction house kept badgering me to put the car in their auctions, I was surprised how low some of the cars went for (the final price muddied by the addition of their somewhat ridiculous costs. My conclusion is that the market isn't as racy as people might perceive it to be. That Scottish fella's from Dragon's Den voice keep reverberating in my head now '....and for that reason I'm ooot'.

[roygarth]

g7jhp said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but the price guide is supposed to be for the hammer price (before other fees).

I have always assumed the estimates includes buyers premium as reports after auctions imply this as they list the 'Estimate' and the 'Sold For' (which definitely includes buyers premium). If not, one would not be comparing like with like.

But I could be wrong.

[Xpuffin]

g7jhp said:

All London Lots are here
http://www.rmsothebys.com/lf15/london/lots/?sort=l...


LOT129 1968 Ferrari Dino 206 GT at £310k (was expected £325-375k)....sure the seller still made a few £££'s.
http://www.rmsothebys.com/lf15/london/lots/1968-fe...

SOLD FOR 356.500

LOT139 1989 Porsche 911 Speedster at £155k (was expected £180-220k).
http://www.rmsothebys.com/lf15/london/lots/1989-po...

SOLD FOR 178.250

LOT141 1981 Lamborghini Countach LP 400S at £235k (was expected £245-315k)
http://www.rmsothebys.com/lf15/london/lots/1981-la...

SOLD FOR 270.250
LOT142 1956 Porsche 356 A Carrera 1500 GS Coupé by Reutter at £270k (was expected £300-350k).
http://www.rmsothebys.com/lf15/london/lots/1956-po...

SOLD FOR 310.500

LOT144 1973 Ferrari 365 GTB/4 Daytona Spider by Scaglietti at £1.7m (was expected £2m-£2.4m).
http://www.rmsothebys.com/lf15/london/lots/1973-fe...

SOLD FOR 1.955.000

LOT145 1972 Porsche 911 Carrera RS 2.7 Touring at £380k (was expected £425-525k).
http://www.rmsothebys.com/lf15/london/lots/1972-po...

SOLD FOR 437.000

LOT158 1953 Porsche 356 Pre-A 1500 Coupé by Reutter at £145k (was expected £190-230k).
http://www.rmsothebys.com/lf15/london/lots/1953-po...

SOLD FOR 166.750

LOT159 1998 Porsche 911 Turbo S at £190k (was expected £250-280k).
http://www.rmsothebys.com/lf15/london/lots/1998-po...

SOLD FOR 218.500

LOT163 1962 Porsche 356 Carrera 2 Coupé by Reutter at £345k (was expected £350-400k).
http://www.rmsothebys.com/lf15/london/lots/1962-po...

SOLD FOR 396.750

LOT168 1992 Ferrari F40 at £755k (was expected £780-900k).
http://www.rmsothebys.com/lf15/london/lots/1992-fe...

SOLD FOR 868.250

All bids on the hammer price, so before fees!

Edited by g7jhp on Monday 7th September 21:06

Sold prices based on 12.5% plus vat sellers fee. Sotherbys do charge up to 20% so this figure is optimistic.
Prices look pretty healthy to me

Edited by Xpuffin on Tuesday 8th September 08:58

[Xpuffin]

g7jhp said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but the price guide is supposed to be for the hammer price (before other fees).

Guide price is always after all fees.

[roygarth]

Prices look pretty healthy to me too.

That will upset the pinko, lefty, card carrying trade unionist commy's desperate for a price collapse and a hit of schadenfreude

[Xpuffin]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Fine art even higher, Sotherbys was one of the auction houses involved in price fixing recently and, as far as I'm aware, still offers sellers a cut of the buyers premium to attract custom.

[g7jhp]

Xpuffin said:

g7jhp said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but the price guide is supposed to be for the hammer price (before other fees).

Guide price is always after all fees.

Thanks for the clarification. Shame they don't show bid and bid plus fees figure to make it more buyer friendly!

[ASM993]

I went to this sale. I'd say majority of the lots didnt make reserve. The loveliest car was a ferrari daytona conv. in a gorgeous "marron somethingitalian" colour with very low miles. Mark Sumpter got the best bargain in the swb 911 for 50k I'd say!
The oddest thing was the anti-Sotherby demo that was going on - loads of police around. Very symbolic to have a protest about minimum wages outside an auction selling cars for hundreds of thousands of pounds.

[roygarth]

Here are the results of last weeks Salon Prive Silverstone Auction showing pre-sale estimates and results. Both include Buyers Premium.

https://www.silverstoneauctions.com/the-salon-priv...

[WindyM]

roygarth said:

Here are the results of last weeks Salon Prive Silverstone Auction showing pre-sale estimates and results. Both include Buyers Premium.

https://www.silverstoneauctions.com/the-salon-priv...

Thanks for posting. It's a shame it doesn't show the maximum bid for stuff that didn't sell!

It looks like the stuff that sold was on or above estimate.

I'm surprised the '73 Touring didn't sell...

[PorscheGT4]

WindyM said:

Thanks for posting. It's a shame it doesn't show the maximum bid for stuff that didn't sell!

It looks like the stuff that sold was on or above estimate.

I'm surprised the '73 Touring didn't sell...

the top bid was only £380k on it.

[aceparts]

A car as an investment has never stood right in my little head. It's a car. OK, so some mega rare special, perhaps but everything else should be purchased for the love of it. I purposely wrote (in my head) the value of my 993 down to £0 when I purchased it 13 years ago. It represented about 200% of my net worth at the time.

I think anyone paying £100+K for one now may be expecting it to feel like a £100K car....

[jimmyslr]

WindyM said:

roygarth said:

Here are the results of last weeks Salon Prive Silverstone Auction showing pre-sale estimates and results. Both include Buyers Premium.

https://www.silverstoneauctions.com/the-salon-priv...

Thanks for posting. It's a shame it doesn't show the maximum bid for stuff that didn't sell!

It looks like the stuff that sold was on or above estimate.

I'm surprised the '73 Touring didn't sell...

Interesting. My take on those results would be that some did sell, but plenty didn't and of those that didn't many were the more valuable, recently inflated cars. Will be interesting to see other auction results but this looks to me as it folk with a 6 figures upwards to spend were a bit more cautious than was the case earlier in the year.

[RSVP911]

Xpuffin said:

Sold prices based on 12.5% plus vat sellers fee. Sotherbys do charge up to 20% so this figure is optimistic.
Prices look pretty healthy to me

Edited by Xpuffin on Tuesday 8th September 08:58

So the majority were in / very close to the range , only two missing by a decent margin - they all should like big numbers to me

[RSVP911]

Xpuffin said:

Sold prices based on 12.5% plus vat sellers fee. Sotherbys do charge up to 20% so this figure is optimistic.
Prices look pretty healthy to me

Edited by Xpuffin on Tuesday 8th September 08:58

So the majority were in / very close to the range , only two missing by a decent margin - they all should like big numbers to me

[Xpuffin]

g7jhp said:

Xpuffin said:

g7jhp said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but the price guide is supposed to be for the hammer price (before other fees).

Guide price is always after all fees.

Thanks for the clarification. Shame they don't show bid and bid plus fees figure to make it more buyer friendly!

Just as important is how the bidding goes for each lot in determining what's hot and what's not.
For example if the room is alight but the car only hits it's low estimate and sells that's a better indication of popularity than the car that exceeds top estimate but with only 2 bidders.
I try never to bid until near the peak, On a recent auction purchase my first bid was on "going twice" just to see what the interest was like. If the highest bidder had bid on after 2 bids from me I would have stopped as it's likely to have been a heart purchase.

[david hockney]

roygarth said:

Here are the results of last weeks Salon Prive Silverstone Auction showing pre-sale estimates and results. Both include Buyers Premium.

https://www.silverstoneauctions.com/the-salon-priv...

There appears to be several very unexpected results- some very nice cars failed to meet reserve and yet some of the fairly common watches sold for top whack- £5700 for a bog standard green bezel Rolex Submariner ?? £7600+ for a black dial/steel Daytona that's 10 years old ??? Hardly auction house bargains ! Looks like
steel sports Rolex are still a safe place to have your cash....

[Geesus]

There's a fair few 997.1 GT3s that haven't moved for months, some have dropped in price by 5k.
Anyone have any more auction results or late?

[355Chris355]

The results of Chris Evans auction at Bonhams were below expectation. Several of the big ticket items failed to sell and the ones that did sell were at or below the lower guide price. Someone on here may have the full list of results.