Cars not selling?

Cars not selling?

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Discussion

NewNameNeeded

2,560 posts

226 months

Saturday 15th September 2018
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Interesting thread. RE: good rare cars continuing to increase in value - I'm not so sure prices will be anything like as strong for some of the models mentioned here in the near future. Bit off topic this, but it has been on my mind for a while.

I think nostalgia has a big part to play, and nostalgia is a temporary and fleeting effect.

Kids that had 993 posters on their walls, for instance, now being an age where they can fulfill their dream and own one drive up prices above market value. But those buyers aren't around indefinitely.

I think the same of manual gear boxes. We perhaps grew up without a viable alternative. So driving a manual car is natural to us, and so it's the car we'd choose. We remember the difficulty in learning how to go through the gears, how great it was once we'd got the knack of it. Feeling at one with the car. And auto boxes were hopeless just a few short years ago.

In a few years I'll be surprised if learner drivers even have a manual as an option. I don't see them getting in to their 30's or 40's, getting some spare cash and lusting after buying a car with a manual gear box, without Bluetooth, heads-up displays, gizmos that make them hero drivers. I don't see them lusting after Honda NSX's or 993's. Tech and creature comforts have become too important to too many of them.

Reduced supply will surely support prices to some degree. But I'm not so sure the next generation will have the same love for the motors we hold in high esteem.

IMI A

9,414 posts

202 months

Sunday 16th September 2018
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Andy-6ufnp said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I presume you've driven one extensively to come up with that summary. I have one and 7k miles in it's certainly not rubbish. Doesn't sound great but it's actually a great little torquey 4 pot that pulls like a train and the gearbox is pretty dam good too!
Looks a million dollars too wink

I love them but not driven one yet. Mk 7 DSG GTI has a four pot turbo and its a fun experience down a give and take road. Easy to drive but thats nice most of the time. I think Alfaholics or a similar company have been spicing up exhaust, power, chassis etc too so very tweakable. Is it easy to get in and out of for old codgers like me? smile

Andy-6ufnp

133 posts

98 months

Sunday 16th September 2018
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
Not trying to tell you what you can or can't do or say but many people slate it (for some justifiable reasons) but it's not as bad as 'rubbish' unless you are comparing it with much more technically advanced/bigger engines in premium make vehicles. For a four pot it's miles more appealing than my wife's Golf R and has at least got an engine note that is real. I've only owned 18 911's so I understand what a great engine can sound like and agree a 4 pot is never going to compete!

Andy-6ufnp

133 posts

98 months

Sunday 16th September 2018
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IMI A said:
Looks a million dollars too wink

I love them but not driven one yet. Mk 7 DSG GTI has a four pot turbo and its a fun experience down a give and take road. Easy to drive but thats nice most of the time. I think Alfaholics or a similar company have been spicing up exhaust, power, chassis etc too so very tweakable. Is it easy to get in and out of for old codgers like me? smile
I'm an old codger and at 5'8 I get in very easily and there is a technique to getting out that makes it painless. Parking where you can fully open the doors is best but can be challenging in some car parks. Alfaworkshop are the people to go to for anything 4C and have a great reputation for improving them. They can be a handful on the UK roads but that's not an issue in Europe with great quality tarmac.

EGTE

996 posts

183 months

Sunday 16th September 2018
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Did someone say Lotus? If you're looking outside the Porsche fold, they're a lot better than you think!

Here's the Evora versus a 991.2GT3 at Castle Combe:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HaJ7aQa7FU&t

And no, they're no longer "lots of trouble, usually serious", not now they run Toyota engines and drivetrains.

browngt3

1,411 posts

212 months

Sunday 16th September 2018
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NewNameNeeded said:
Interesting thread. RE: good rare cars continuing to increase in value - I'm not so sure prices will be anything like as strong for some of the models mentioned here in the near future. Bit off topic this, but it has been on my mind for a while.

I think nostalgia has a big part to play, and nostalgia is a temporary and fleeting effect.

Kids that had 993 posters on their walls, for instance, now being an age where they can fulfill their dream and own one drive up prices above market value. But those buyers aren't around indefinitely.

I think the same of manual gear boxes. We perhaps grew up without a viable alternative. So driving a manual car is natural to us, and so it's the car we'd choose. We remember the difficulty in learning how to go through the gears, how great it was once we'd got the knack of it. Feeling at one with the car. And auto boxes were hopeless just a few short years ago.

In a few years I'll be surprised if learner drivers even have a manual as an option. I don't see them getting in to their 30's or 40's, getting some spare cash and lusting after buying a car with a manual gear box, without Bluetooth, heads-up displays, gizmos that make them hero drivers. I don't see them lusting after Honda NSX's or 993's. Tech and creature comforts have become too important to too many of them.

Reduced supply will surely support prices to some degree. But I'm not so sure the next generation will have the same love for the motors we hold in high esteem.
You make an interesting point regarding the nostalgia effect. However, when it comes to something as iconic as a 911, and if you're into cars generally, I think its only a part of the decision. For example I have always fancied a pre-war, so many decades before I was even born. Have you seen the prices of BMW 328s?

POORCARDEALER

8,526 posts

242 months

Sunday 16th September 2018
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The market is softening big time, only the very very best will stay up in the clouds, auction houses sale rates have dropped dramatically which is a usual indication of "market adjustment"...people are realising and ringing around trying to sell, I have been offered more air colled porsche in the last 3 months than the whole of last year, both dealer and private.

Some adjustment isnt all bad news, more enthusuasts will be able to re enter the market, cars should sell more easily due to lower buying prices allowing more buyers.

Not a bad time to be sat with a pocket full of cash

v8ksn

Original Poster:

4,711 posts

185 months

Sunday 16th September 2018
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POORCARDEALER said:
The market is softening big time, only the very very best will stay up in the clouds, auction houses sale rates have dropped dramatically which is a usual indication of "market adjustment"...people are realising and ringing around trying to sell, I have been offered more air colled porsche in the last 3 months than the whole of last year, both dealer and private.

Some adjustment isnt all bad news, more enthusuasts will be able to re enter the market, cars should sell more easily due to lower buying prices allowing more buyers.

Not a bad time to be sat with a pocket full of cash
Market softening is the feeling I am getting too but that has not been based on any factual evidence, just my feeling from looking at cars for sale and the length of time they have been for sale.

I have noticed it with property too, nothing really seems to be moving. My wife and I were considering moving house at the beginning of last year and then due to various reasons, we decided against it. Since then, we have seen the price of the house we were looking at reduced by the owners twice.

EGTE

996 posts

183 months

Sunday 16th September 2018
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v8ksn said:
Market softening is the feeling I am getting too but that has not been based on any factual evidence, just my feeling from looking at cars for sale and the length of time they have been for sale.

I have noticed it with property too, nothing really seems to be moving. My wife and I were considering moving house at the beginning of last year and then due to various reasons, we decided against it. Since then, we have seen the price of the house we were looking at reduced by the owners twice.
My feeling is that a lot of sellers are in denial, keeping the prices unrealistically high and consequently those cars are not selling, as you first asked.

v8ksn

Original Poster:

4,711 posts

185 months

Sunday 16th September 2018
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
https://hiltonandmoss.com/whats-happening-classic-...

article said:
But the question that people really want the answer to is not what has happened in the past, but what will happen in the future. One of the question we are regularly asked is – “When will the bubble burst?”

Well, we don’t believe it will, but we do expect to see a slow down in the rise of market values. Our belief is driven by the answers our customers give to the following questions – Why, How, and What? Why? Prior to the last price crash in the classic car market in the mid-nineties, buyers were acquiring exotic classics as investment only purchases, to sit in their garages for sale at a later date. Dealers were guilty of driving prices up which only made the hungry investors, flush with the economic prosperity of the eighties, more excited about the values – in effect, there was a feeding frenzy.
Edited by v8ksn on Sunday 16th September 13:02

Discombobulate

4,854 posts

187 months

Sunday 16th September 2018
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
Fast, but it was crazier then. Dealers calling up customers with year old run of the mill 911s and Ferraris and offering to replace them with new ones so they could sell the used ones above list.
In 1992 we had a XJ220 that we passed on at list (to John Madjeski). Two months later other owners a bit further down the waiting list were facing at least a £150,000 loss if they needed to sell - and it got worse.

Edited by Discombobulate on Sunday 16th September 15:12

Cheib

23,289 posts

176 months

Sunday 16th September 2018
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
When the car market turns it goes wrong big time. I'd expect a 30 to 50% correction. Last winter trade bids for air cooled cars weren't exactly punchy from what I understand.

This market has come so far you could easily see cars losing 30 to 50% of their value. Something like say a 993 Carrera S....which would currently be valued at say £70k. I reckon you could easily see those cars under £50k.



ooid

4,113 posts

101 months

Sunday 16th September 2018
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
not 90's but I can easily remember seeing Jay Kay's 360 modena on sale around 35k, just after the last recession...rolleyes

Wilmslowboy

4,216 posts

207 months

Sunday 16th September 2018
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
The average drop was about 50% - things like Testarossas and flat nose 911s lost best part of 80% from thier peaks.

- See USA index graph.


v8ksn

Original Poster:

4,711 posts

185 months

Sunday 16th September 2018
quotequote all
Cheib said:
When the car market turns it goes wrong big time. I'd expect a 30 to 50% correction. Last winter trade bids for air cooled cars weren't exactly punchy from what I understand.

This market has come so far you could easily see cars losing 30 to 50% of their value. Something like say a 993 Carrera S....which would currently be valued at say £70k. I reckon you could easily see those cars under £50k.
IF that happens, I guess the owners would just keep their cars instead.

Cheib

23,289 posts

176 months

Sunday 16th September 2018
quotequote all
Cheib said:
When the car market turns it goes wrong big time. I'd expect a 30 to 50% correction. Last winter trade bids for air cooled cars weren't exactly punchy from what I understand.

This market has come so far you could easily see cars losing 30 to 50% of their value. Something like say a 993 Carrera S....which would currently be valued at say £70k. I reckon you could easily see those cars under £50k.
DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.
I am not sure you need an extraneous event per se....some car prices have gone up 1500% in the last fifteen years. I don’t think there’s any asset class that has done that and not retraced. Don’t forget this is an asset class where standing still costs money.,.maintenance, storage, insurance etc...cars are “negative carry”. Easy to wear those costs when prices are stable...when the car has lost say 10% in the last year and you then get an unexpected £10k bill that becomes a lot less palatable.

As for forced selling I remember a bloke I knew through work had a 6 month old Cayenne Turbo on his drive...one of five cars he had. Thought his job was in danger so he decided he wanted out, Car had cost IIRC £80k to £90k....his OPC didn’t want to know despite 15 year relationship. Specialist dealer bid £45k then backed out. He sold it for £28k.

Mario149

7,758 posts

179 months

Sunday 16th September 2018
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Cheib said:
When the car market turns it goes wrong big time. I'd expect a 30 to 50% correction. Last winter trade bids for air cooled cars weren't exactly punchy from what I understand.

This market has come so far you could easily see cars losing 30 to 50% of their value. Something like say a 993 Carrera S....which would currently be valued at say £70k. I reckon you could easily see those cars under £50k.
DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.
I don't think it's as simple as that. If interest rates went up dramatically, people who were relying on cheap debt to fund their lifestyle may need to get rid. Or if their business started doing badly due to economic climate, or if they or their other half lost their job etc etc. Endless permutations where having a toy nominally valued at say £75k sat on the drive becomes a situation that is unsustainable, and where even letting it go for £65k becomes desirable for a quick sale. That becomes the new benchmark so for the next quick sale, the next person needs to go lower. Multiply that a few times as people like us spot cars being advertised cheap and going quickly, and there we go.



Mario149

7,758 posts

179 months

Sunday 16th September 2018
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v8ksn said:
IF that happens, I guess the owners would just keep their cars instead.
That won't always be an option

Phooey

12,615 posts

170 months

Sunday 16th September 2018
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Lack of financial confidence equals panic and sometimes drastic measures. Emotional attachments soon become forgotten and cars are the first to be tossed into the fire.

Edited by Phooey on Sunday 16th September 20:09

jimmy p

960 posts

167 months

Sunday 16th September 2018
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I think this is a very pessimistic thread.
Car sales tend to dry up at the back end of summer. Certainly threads like this aren't going to help the market or less your intention is to try and further slow it so that cars become more affordable, fair enough for buyers but not nice for owners.
Think you will have to wait for spring to get a true view of the market.
However if your car does lose value your next car you buy will also have (unless you buy new) so its only the capital you currently have tied up in it which is effected.