When will used car prices drop?

[Porsche911R]

shantybeater said:

RSVP911 said:

+1

+2. The 80% funding from the govt is masking/delaying it all. Once the funding stops and unemployment goes through the roof (which it will and already has) the prestige car market is going to take a beating far worse than 2008.

unemployment wont go though the roof and has NOT already gone though the roof ?, people in employment might drop to 2017 levels but not to 2008 levels !! atm it's gone form 3.8% to 4% but for other reasons as well.

it might go up 2 million (not sure, it will be more like 1 million imo), that's not really an issue and again those people in those jobs were not the prestige car market buyers any way. Jobs are being created in other area's for the lower paid, but they don't want the jobs !! we are flying workers in !!!

in 2008 it was about 8% after effect , in 87 it was 11.5% odd, it might goto 5 or 6% from 4% this time imho.

way too many people on here have zero confidence, starting to sound like the pro EU group of nutters. :-)
I guess it depends what people call though the roof, we see a lot of fake news and scare stories on SM and by pen pushers and people on here who in the main were pro EU pen pushers also lol.

this is not the same sort of issues as 87, 2008.

The markets up 15 to 20% from the 23rd March.

[av185]

Cheib said:

NickUSA said:

There's nothing wrong with yellow, not like boring grey, black or white which the dealers try to push customers towards.

We own two brightly coloured Porsche’s but neither are daily drivers. It’s not what most buyers want...and I think the natural home for a car like that 4S is someone that wants to daily it.

Yep this is the point.

Even yellow GT3s are a hard sell never mind a yellow Carrera.

Understandably most buyers want dark metallics on these and this is further confirmed by grey being the most popular new car colour in 2019.

[av185]

Have it yes.

So would I.

[Kev78]

I think realistically high mile, early 991’s should have been around £30k before corona.

Just looking at some of the private ads on AT. Most sellers are in dreamland.

[alltalk]

Tend to agree - sadly we won't see real prices move unless there are a number of people who "must" sell rather than "want" to sell, and even then they may not be public as they have to accept offers they wouldn't normally entertain.

Whilst you own the car you can feel like you have an asset of a perceived value, once you actually sell you have crystallised any loss.

[Kev78]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I’ve been watching for a while and nothing seems to be selling.

They are now mass produced cars, not the low number, reliable, air cooled rarity they once were.

“Porsche tax” is well and truly over imo. How it survived this long I will never know.

Some are still asking half the original rrp for 9 year old cars with 100k and 5+ owners.

Once CAP and WBAC sites re open and start setting trade values, opinions on current value will go out of the window.

[av185]

Kev78 said:

I’ve been watching for a while and nothing seems to be selling.

They are now mass produced cars, not the low number, reliable, air cooled rarity they once were.

“Porsche tax” is well and truly over imo. How it survived this long I will never know.

Some are still asking half the original rrp for 9 year old cars with 100k and 5+ owners.

Once CAP and WBAC sites re open and start setting trade values, opinions on current value will go out of the window.

So air cooled Porsches were all reliable then?

The residuals have always been strong for certain Porsches in particular because they are value as a performance and product package and with GT cars are actually underpriced and limited numbers for brand filtering purposes.

Also CAP and WBAC do not determine market prices they merely reflect them.

[Kev78]

av185 said:

Kev78 said:

I’ve been watching for a while and nothing seems to be selling.

They are now mass produced cars, not the low number, reliable, air cooled rarity they once were.

“Porsche tax” is well and truly over imo. How it survived this long I will never know.

Some are still asking half the original rrp for 9 year old cars with 100k and 5+ owners.

Once CAP and WBAC sites re open and start setting trade values, opinions on current value will go out of the window.

So air cooled Porsches were all reliable then?

The residuals have always been strong for certain Porsches in particular because they are value as a performance and product package and with GT cars are actually underpriced and limited numbers for brand filtering purposes.

Also CAP and WBAC do not determine market prices they merely reflect them.

They set trade values which then set retail value.

991 GT3 and new GT4 are nowhere near a limited in numbers as previous generations. There are a stack of them on AT that have been sat for over a year. Prices are going one way.

The air cooled cars are more desirable as they were not mass produced.

Porsche’s first attempts at water cooled engines were a total failure (996/997.1). 991.1 gt3 3.8 is another lemon. What are they even worth now with a few years left of that 10 year extended warranty?

[gizlaroc]

Porsche911R said:

unemployment wont go though the roof and has NOT already gone though the roof ?, people in employment might drop to 2017 levels but not to 2008 levels !! atm it's gone form 3.8% to 4% but for other reasons as well.

it might go up 2 million (not sure, it will be more like 1 million imo), that's not really an issue and again those people in those jobs were not the prestige car market buyers any way. Jobs are being created in other area's for the lower paid, but they don't want the jobs !! we are flying workers in !!!

in 2008 it was about 8% after effect , in 87 it was 11.5% odd, it might goto 5 or 6% from 4% this time imho.

way too many people on here have zero confidence, starting to sound like the pro EU group of nutters. :-)
I guess it depends what people call though the roof, we see a lot of fake news and scare stories on SM and by pen pushers and people on here who in the main were pro EU pen pushers also lol.

this is not the same sort of issues as 87, 2008.

The markets up 15 to 20% from the 23rd March.

Sorry, this will be far worse than 2008.

Universal Credit have had 1,500,000 sign up in the last 3 weeks alone.


They are saying that 10% unemployed at the end of this would be a good result.

[Miopyk]

gizlaroc said:

Porsche911R said:

unemployment wont go though the roof and has NOT already gone though the roof ?, people in employment might drop to 2017 levels but not to 2008 levels !! atm it's gone form 3.8% to 4% but for other reasons as well.

it might go up 2 million (not sure, it will be more like 1 million imo), that's not really an issue and again those people in those jobs were not the prestige car market buyers any way. Jobs are being created in other area's for the lower paid, but they don't want the jobs !! we are flying workers in !!!

in 2008 it was about 8% after effect , in 87 it was 11.5% odd, it might goto 5 or 6% from 4% this time imho.

way too many people on here have zero confidence, starting to sound like the pro EU group of nutters. :-)
I guess it depends what people call though the roof, we see a lot of fake news and scare stories on SM and by pen pushers and people on here who in the main were pro EU pen pushers also lol.

this is not the same sort of issues as 87, 2008.

The markets up 15 to 20% from the 23rd March.

Sorry, this will be far worse than 2008.

Universal Credit have had 1,500,000 sign up in the last 3 weeks alone.


They are saying that 10% unemployed at the end of this would be a good result.

15% unemployment in the US already. The UK figures are likely masked by the Furlough scheme so underlying numbers won't reveal themselves until lockdown starts to recede.

[Welshbeef]

Miopyk said:

15% unemployment in the US already. The UK figures are likely masked by the Furlough scheme so underlying numbers won't reveal themselves until lockdown starts to recede.

Isn’t ROI nearing 50% out of work.
288k previously unemployed now an extra 900k odd out of low 2m total workforce.

[shantybeater]

Porsche911R said:

shantybeater said:

RSVP911 said:

+1

+2. The 80% funding from the govt is masking/delaying it all. Once the funding stops and unemployment goes through the roof (which it will and already has) the prestige car market is going to take a beating far worse than 2008.

unemployment wont go though the roof and has NOT already gone though the roof ?, people in employment might drop to 2017 levels but not to 2008 levels !! atm it's gone form 3.8% to 4% but for other reasons as well.

it might go up 2 million (not sure, it will be more like 1 million imo), that's not really an issue and again those people in those jobs were not the prestige car market buyers any way. Jobs are being created in other area's for the lower paid, but they don't want the jobs !! we are flying workers in !!!

in 2008 it was about 8% after effect , in 87 it was 11.5% odd, it might goto 5 or 6% from 4% this time imho.

way too many people on here have zero confidence, starting to sound like the pro EU group of nutters. :-)
I guess it depends what people call though the roof, we see a lot of fake news and scare stories on SM and by pen pushers and people on here who in the main were pro EU pen pushers also lol.

this is not the same sort of issues as 87, 2008.

The markets up 15 to 20% from the 23rd March.

For you to have such a positive attitude you must be so far completely unaffected by the recent events (and everyone around you). I envy you living in such a bubble I really do, because first hand my immediate social group has been wildly affected. Most are furloughed and of those not many expect to have a job to go back to once the government grants end. My lodger couldn’t even get through to the universal credit website, it was crashing due to overload.

I also wouldn’t assume everyone buying Porsche’s (or other prestigious cars) are unaffected just because you are fine. As has been mentioned previously, some of the target market lease cars well beyond their means. You also have to remember the entire car market is likely to have a knock-on effect as you go up the scale. Yes most of the buyers looking for 100k GT3’s will be ok, but the guys below buying the Caymans, the m3’s, the RS3’s etc? Those prices fall, and so will your target market (and the ones above it).

Also, we are flying Romanians in because the furlough scheme is still going on, and we have ridiculous benefits scheme, so for some, why work?

Edited by shantybeater on Thursday 23 April 19:57

[av185]

Kev78 said:

av185 said:

Kev78 said:

I’ve been watching for a while and nothing seems to be selling.

They are now mass produced cars, not the low number, reliable, air cooled rarity they once were.

“Porsche tax” is well and truly over imo. How it survived this long I will never know.

Some are still asking half the original rrp for 9 year old cars with 100k and 5+ owners.

Once CAP and WBAC sites re open and start setting trade values, opinions on current value will go out of the window.

So air cooled Porsches were all reliable then?

The residuals have always been strong for certain Porsches in particular because they are value as a performance and product package and with GT cars are actually underpriced and limited numbers for brand filtering purposes.

Also CAP and WBAC do not determine market prices they merely reflect them.

They set trade values which then set retail value.

991 GT3 and new GT4 are nowhere near a limited in numbers as previous generations. There are a stack of them on AT that have been sat for over a year. Prices are going one way.

The air cooled cars are more desirable as they were not mass produced.

Porsche’s first attempts at water cooled engines were a total failure (996/997.1). 991.1 gt3 3.8 is another lemon. What are they even worth now with a few years left of that 10 year extended warranty?

CAP is a guide which reflects the prevailing market it does not fix it in stone.

You are talking bullst because on the one hand you are saying prices are falling yet CAP have frozen their prices for the next few months.

Make your mind up.

I know the GT3 and GT4 market thanks having had all recent models and currently run a 991.2 GT3 and 981 GT4 amongst other Porsches with a 718 GT4 arriving later this year.

If you knew the cars you would realise spec is all and there are very few cars only a handful in fact of top correct spec 991.2 GT3 manuals which command the best money.

Re numbers there were 600 981 GT4s and likely only 400 718 GT4s as Porsche are cutting back production with the prevailing economic circumstances.

You say the 991.1 GT3 is a lemon so you clearly haven't driven never mind owned one.

The fact cars that approaching 7 years old with c25k miles are still selling for just under list £ is testament to their ability and market demand. Not many if any cars can claim such residuals.

Try getting your facts right before posting.

Edited by av185 on Thursday 23 April 19:57

[GT4P]

av185 said:

The fact cars that approaching 7 years old with c25k miles are still selling for just under list £ is testament to their ability and market demand. Not many if any cars can claim such residuals.

Edited by av185 on Thursday 23 April 19:57

That is not a fact it's conjecture, you do not know what that car above sold for or if it was just pulled by the owner, we have had an owner poster of a 991.1gt3 saying its a bloodbath trying to sell and i have even shown you a low miles CS car that is well under list that hasn't sold!
As mentioned on another post do you live in some kind of bubble? Or are you in denial?

[Discombobulate]

Porsche911R said:

unemployment wont go though the roof and has NOT already gone though the roof ?, people in employment might drop to 2017 levels but not to 2008 levels !! atm it's gone form 3.8% to 4% but for other reasons as well.

it might go up 2 million (not sure, it will be more like 1 million imo), that's not really an issue and again those people in those jobs were not the prestige car market buyers any way. Jobs are being created in other area's for the lower paid, but they don't want the jobs !! we are flying workers in !!!

in 2008 it was about 8% after effect , in 87 it was 11.5% odd, it might goto 5 or 6% from 4% this time imho.

way too many people on here have zero confidence, starting to sound like the pro EU group of nutters. :-)
I guess it depends what people call though the roof, we see a lot of fake news and scare stories on SM and by pen pushers and people on here who in the main were pro EU pen pushers also lol.

this is not the same sort of issues as 87, 2008.

The markets up 15 to 20% from the 23rd March.

And still down 20% from 20th Feb

[av185]

GT4P said:

av185 said:

The fact cars that approaching 7 years old with c25k miles are still selling for just under list £ is testament to their ability and market demand. Not many if any cars can claim such residuals.

Edited by av185 on Thursday 23 April 19:57

That is not a fact it's conjecture, you do not know what that car above sold for or if it was just pulled by the owner, we have had an owner poster of a 991.1gt3 saying its a bloodbath trying to sell and i have even shown you a low miles CS car that is well under list that hasn't sold!
As mentioned on another post do you live in some kind of bubble? Or are you in denial?

As previously discussed I agree we don't know what that car sold at or indeed if it sold at all.

Point is though we have had various buyers of 991.1 GT3 threads recently who testify the prices the best RIGHT SPEC cars commanded obviously pre lockdown.

Obviously noone knows what will happen to the market post lockdown but traditionally as you well know yourself, and as history prives GT3s hold their value better than most in any crisis.

Makes no odds to me btw my gen 2 is a keeper and I have several other depreciating cars to worry about lol.

[GT4P]

Over the long term GT cars do fair better than regular models but they have been know to crash ie falling well below list. IMHO the 997 models will fair best and the 991.1 the least.

[av185]

GT4P said:

Over the long term GT cars do fair better than regular models but they have been know to crash ie falling well below list. IMHO the 997 models will fair best and the 991.1 the least.

Fair point but don't forget that the 992 GT3 which probably won't arrive in the UK until 2021 will be around £160k with some spec and the first flipped cars will be £210k+ which will tend to support previous gen residuals particularly later model cars.

Furthermore the 992 due to gpfs etc will not sound as good as the 991 similar to the 718 v 981 and interior will not be everyones taste which has resulted in several of us on PH actually already declining allocations.

[RSVP911]

av185 said:

GT4P said:

Over the long term GT cars do fair better than regular models but they have been know to crash ie falling well below list. IMHO the 997 models will fair best and the 991.1 the least.

Fair point but don't forget that the 992 GT3 which probably won't arrive in the UK until 2021 will be around £160k with some spec and the first flipped cars will be £210k+ which will tend to support previous gen residuals particularly later model cars.

Furthermore the 992 due to gpfs etc will not sound as good as the 991 similar to the 718 v 981 and interior will not be everyones taste which has resulted in several of us on PH actually already declining allocations.

First flipped cars £k210 - you are joking right ?

[Porsche911R]

shantybeater said:

For you to have such a positive attitude you must be so far completely unaffected by the recent events (and everyone around you). I envy you living in such a bubble I really do, because first hand my immediate social group has been wildly affected. Most are furloughed and of those not many expect to have a job to go back to once the government grants end. My lodger couldn’t even get through to the universal credit website, it was crashing due to overload.

Edited by shantybeater on Thursday 23 April 19:57

Better to have a positive attitude, having lived though the last 2 crashes, I don’t think this is the same. Although we will all be paying for it for years. How time will tell, prob a higher VAT rate.

I am very affected but no one I know will loose their jobs.