When will used car prices drop?

[Xfe]

Cheib said:

PTS Weissach Pack GT3 RS for just under £200k https://www.pistonheads.com/buy/listing/10815187?c...

It’s done 8k miles (good effort!)

At that mileage it'll probably drive quite a bit better than a low mileage car too. In my experience the cars improve/bed-in well into the first 10k miles

[blacksun80]

MannyLon said:

I brought a 981 Spyder in July. Trade in was 67k and price on display was 72k. So 5k. But 4 new tyres, new battery, Topaz replacement ppf front bumper, GTech whole car coating including interior and warranty for 2 years. Not sure how much mark up in that?

Sure some prices may have high mark up, but worth looking closer on what the dealer has done to the car..

In another recent case Markup was >10k at that price level:
There was a nice 2016 Targa 4S with ~20k miles advertised on eBay for 73k with extended warranty running until March 21, i was in touch with seller who said Porsche had offered him 70k, but was far away and bit above my budget so never went to see it...
It’s now for sale at Porsche Leeds OPC for 82.5k

[MannyLon]

blacksun80 said:

In another recent case Markup was >10k at that price level:
There was a nice 2016 Targa 4S with ~20k miles advertised on eBay for 73k with extended warranty running until March 21, i was in touch with seller who said Porsche had offered him 70k, but was far away and bit above my budget so never went to see it...
It’s now for sale at Porsche Leeds OPC for 82.5k

And how much did they spend on bringing up to OPC standards?

[blacksun80]

MannyLon said:

And how much did they spend on bringing up to OPC standards?

I don’t doubt that there is a decent amount of cost to do that (I guess a few thsd incl. extending warranty) and I know it’s in general an industry with (very) low profit margins.

I am just confirming a prior posters observation that in this price range the markup can well be 10k+ (in this case 12.5k), which is also more than what I would have thought it would be...

[MannyLon]

blacksun80 said:

I don’t doubt that there is a decent amount of cost to do that (I guess a few thsd incl. extending warranty) and I know it’s in general an industry with (very) low profit margins.

I am just confirming a prior posters observation that in this price range the markup can well be 10k+ (in this case 12.5k), which is also more than what I would have thought it would be...

Agreed. Often overlooked.

[Porsche911R]

Don’t buy and sell Ferrari then, the gaps from trade to retail is twice Porsche.

I do think OPC take the piss on 100% pucker spec well looked after cars, and then offer the same for a nail which needs 4 new tyres, brakes and a service !

Just lazy buyers where they win more on some cars than others, and it ave out, but you are better offloading a 3.9 year old car to an OPC which needs 6k work over part exing a car you keep upto standard and needs nothing.

[MannyLon]

Porsche911R said:

Don’t buy and sell Ferrari then, the gaps from trade to retail is twice Porsche.

I do think OPC take the piss on 100% pucker spec well looked after cars, and then offer the same for a nail which needs 4 new tyres, brakes and a service !

Just lazy buyers where they win more on some cars than others, and it ave out, but you are better offloading a 3.9 year old car to an OPC which needs 6k work over part exing a car you keep upto standard and needs nothing.

Have you delved into the Italian stuff?

[Porsche911R]

MannyLon said:

Have you delved into the Italian stuff?

No, not easy to get in and out of.
Only car which I would look at is a 458 speciale.

[Cheib]

Porsche911R said:

MannyLon said:

Have you delved into the Italian stuff?

No, not easy to get in and out of.
Only car which I would look at is a 458 speciale.

Think it’s pretty easy to get into them....out’s slightly different !

[av185]

A Speciale is quite a hard car to actually value correctly atm but medium term they will undoubtedly do well.

With newish del miles Pistas around list ££ these are far more compelling value wise atm imo.

[Porsche911R]

av185 said:

A Speciale is quite a hard car to actually value correctly atm but medium term they will undoubtedly do well.

With newish del miles Pistas around list ££ these are far more compelling value wise atm imo.

But it's very uninteresting. Values are meaningless.

[av185]

Porsche911R said:

av185 said:

A Speciale is quite a hard car to actually value correctly atm but medium term they will undoubtedly do well.

With newish del miles Pistas around list ££ these are far more compelling value wise atm imo.

But it's very uninteresting. Values are meaningless.

Until you buy a car!

[Porsche911R]

av185 said:

Until you buy a car!

Most cars drop and the value is meaningless if you have petrol for blood, you want a car which is right and drives well.

There comes a point on ave wages one does not order a brand new Macca with £40k options, but bar that, values is getting annoying on these threads and has taken over.

The last 7 years of Porsche owner ship is dire.
Bit like the Rolex forums and owners.

Every thing is hard to get and goes for overs, but every one seems to have a GT car or a steel sports Rolex any way.

[MannyLon]

Porsche911R said:

Most cars drop and the value is meaningless if you have petrol for blood, you want a car which is right and drives well.

There comes a point on ave wages one does not order a brand new Macca with £40k options, but bar that, values is getting annoying on these threads and has taken over.

The last 7 years of Porsche owner ship is dire.
Bit like the Rolex forums and owners.

Every thing is hard to get and goes for overs, but every one seems to have a GT car or a steel sports Rolex any way.

Totally. Infact, they have very similar marketing and hence so successful. Nearly every other thread on Rolex Forums is about money and value in a year's time. How can people possibly enjoy ownership of these things if they constantly worry about residuals.

[hornbaek]

I actually think we are entering into a new valuation paradigm. My hypothesis is that if you buy a car today the residual in 5-7 years from now will be max 20% of the purchase price. This paradigm will hit across all ICE cars due to legislation driving popular demand towards zero unless the car is rare or has some provenance ( but then it’s use will be severely limited ).
I have never used finance to buy a car but if a finance company is bullish enough to underwrite any residual value with no strings attached on a purchase of an ICE powered car in 5-7 years time being higher than the said 20%, then I’ll have a look. (Aston Martin sold a number of Vantages around X-Mas with a guaranteed “hand-back” of 80k after 3 years). That seems to have been a loss leader in terms of 3rd party finance deal.

Only my opinion btw.

[av185]

hornbaek said:

I actually think we are entering into a new valuation paradigm. My hypothesis is that if you buy a car today the residual in 5-7 years from now will be max 20% of the purchase price. This paradigm will hit across all ICE cars due to legislation driving popular demand towards zero unless the car is rare or has some provenance ( but then it’s use will be severely limited ).
I have never used finance to buy a car but if a finance company is bullish enough to underwrite any residual value with no strings attached on a purchase of an ICE powered car in 5-7 years time being higher than the said 20%, then I’ll have a look. (Aston Martin sold a number of Vantages around X-Mas with a guaranteed “hand-back” of 80k after 3 years). That seems to have been a loss leader in terms of 3rd party finance deal.

Only my opinion btw.

But the current demand for used cars across the board including much high end stuff has been unprecedented and shows no signs of coming of the boil with prices up over 6% during August alone.

The 20% residual figure you mention at between 5 years old and 7 years old is typical of mainstream car values anyway but this would never happen to much limited production premium brand stuff even approaching 2030 possible cutoff despite some models having greater production numbers.

The possibility of an £11k 6 year old GT4 next year looks slightly remote.

[davey68]

Been casually watching 718 prices and they seem to have gone up recently. Base 718 caymans were around 30k maybe even less but they all seem to be 32-35 now. Interesting times on the used market.

[v8ksn]

davey68 said:

Been casually watching 718 prices and they seem to have gone up recently. Base 718 caymans were around 30k maybe even less but they all seem to be 32-35 now. Interesting times on the used market.

The used car market has all gone a bit crazy hasn't it. I just don't understand it.

[Anonymous-poster]

v8ksn said:

davey68 said:

Been casually watching 718 prices and they seem to have gone up recently. Base 718 caymans were around 30k maybe even less but they all seem to be 32-35 now. Interesting times on the used market.

The used car market has all gone a bit crazy hasn't it. I just don't understand it.

Loads of free money been dropped into the economy while most people have been spending less.

[jakesmith]

Anonymous-poster said:

v8ksn said:

davey68 said:

Been casually watching 718 prices and they seem to have gone up recently. Base 718 caymans were around 30k maybe even less but they all seem to be 32-35 now. Interesting times on the used market.

The used car market has all gone a bit crazy hasn't it. I just don't understand it.

Loads of free money been dropped into the economy while most people have been spending less.

And lots of people looking to avoid public transport according to car dealer friend