Are we on the verge of a big price crash on GT cars?

[Curv3hunter]

The best trade offer I got in 2019 when I sold my 981 GT4 was 63k. High spec Clubsport, PCCB etc.
3 closest OPC wouldn't even give a trade bid.

The same car now/previous 18 months would be 10-15k more. Prices just need to realign to pre covid.

[Andyoz]

993rsr said:

It's called denial, and that's not the big river in Egypt

The thing is, everyone's looking for immediate evidence of price collapses. It is already softening but these things don't just fall off a cliff. It takes a while for the changes to the cost of credit to flow thru.

[LucasA]

tedblog said:

LucasA said:

I was surprised at the price of the new Civic Type R that was revealed today - 48 grand *edited, sorry 47 grand, 50+ with options.*

Surely if this is the new normal for a hot hatch, a GT4 at 80/90k looks relatively good value, even in harder times.

A 992 GT3 at 200k considering how good they are and what they rival also doesn't seem like a stupid buy. I'd rather have one over a similar age Lambo Huracan or Ferrari F8. They are also cheaper to run which may appeal in times of penny pinching.

Overall the market may correct, but Porsche GT in particular more than other things, not so much.

Edited by LucasA on Wednesday 30th November 17:09

I love the way you said looks great value against the Civic.

That just shows how crazy the price is!

[Grantstown]

Far fewer hot hatches will be sold compared to years gone by. It’s a segment that seems to have disappeared in favour of these sophisticated, but expensive offerings.

[Andyoz]

Grantstown said:

Far fewer hot hatches will be sold compared to years gone by. It’s a segment that seems to have disappeared in favour of these sophisticated, but expensive offerings.

Yes, I don't consider them hot hatches anymore.
They were cars purely aimed at the cheap PCP 'monthly' brigade...were....

[isaldiri]

Andyoz said:

Yes, I know. That's my point. I called this over a year ago...

I still don't think some here realise what this abrupt end to the post 2008 credit cycle can do to asset values.

To be fair though, quite a few, including on here have also been predicting the end of the GT/collector car market literally for years since 2015. Finally being right now doesn't mean they 'called it right long ago'....

[marky911]

Too new and too many of them. They’re bound to come down first (out of the GT stuff).
Older stuff will be affected too but will go down later/less and not as far.

[freedman]

Curv3hunter said:

The best trade offer I got in 2019 when I sold my 981 GT4 was 63k. High spec Clubsport, PCCB etc.
3 closest OPC wouldn't even give a trade bid.

The same car now/previous 18 months would be 10-15k more. Prices just need to realign to pre covid.

There is surely no chance of getting a trade bid at £73-£78k, when there are cars being retailed at under £70k

[Mumsn3t]

freedman said:

There is surely no chance of getting a trade bid at £73-£78k, when there are cars being retailed at under £70k

No chance. Try it, punch the details into WBAC to get an idea. The market has already started to soften. I for one welcome the end to this crazy period.

[GT4RS]

bus_ter said:

Window shopping on Autotrader (as you do) and noticed there are now 90 718 GT4's and 30 981 GT4's for Sale. Prices down to the £60K's

That's quite a remarkable change from just 6 months ago. Is the current financial climate about to crash the price of GT cars?

Here’s a couple of interesting questions.

Is there 120 genuine buyers currently in the Uk seriously looking to buy a used gt4 at an inflated price over or just under list?

Or

Is there 120 genuine buyers currently in the Uk seriously looking to buy a used gt4 at an inflated price over or just under list, in a falling market?

Or

Is there 120 genuine buyers currently in the Uk seriously looking to buy a used gt4 at an inflated price over or just under list, in a falling market and are comfortable borrowing at a high interest rate between 11 and 14%

Or

Is there 120 genuine buyers currently in the Uk seriously looking to buy a used gt4 at an inflated price over or just under list, in a falling market, comfortable borrowing at a high interest rate between 11 and 14% and happy to have a guarantee future value set far lower than they ever expected?

My guess is there’s plenty of dreamers and window shoppers, but there are very few serious/ genuine buyers.

Supply increases, people see the price of what they thought was a safe place to leave their money become risky and more come to the market. The ones who are sensible and need to sell will pitch there car slightly lower than others, the ones who don’t are rolling the dice…..

[rkwm1]

Andyoz said:

The thing is, everyone's looking for immediate evidence of price collapses. It is already softening but these things don't just fall off a cliff. It takes a while for the changes to the cost of credit to flow thru.

Looking for evidence?? Its there for everyone to see. They fell off the cliff a while back......now are well on the way down!!

[ChrisW.]

GT4RS said:

bus_ter said:

Window shopping on Autotrader (as you do) and noticed there are now 90 718 GT4's and 30 981 GT4's for Sale. Prices down to the £60K's

That's quite a remarkable change from just 6 months ago. Is the current financial climate about to crash the price of GT cars?

Here’s a couple of interesting questions.

Is there 120 genuine buyers currently in the Uk seriously looking to buy a used gt4 at an inflated price over or just under list?

Or

Is there 120 genuine buyers currently in the Uk seriously looking to buy a used gt4 at an inflated price over or just under list, in a falling market?

Or

Is there 120 genuine buyers currently in the Uk seriously looking to buy a used gt4 at an inflated price over or just under list, in a falling market and are comfortable borrowing at a high interest rate between 11 and 14%

Or

Is there 120 genuine buyers currently in the Uk seriously looking to buy a used gt4 at an inflated price over or just under list, in a falling market, comfortable borrowing at a high interest rate between 11 and 14% and happy to have a guarantee future value set far lower than they ever expected?

My guess is there’s plenty of dreamers and window shoppers, but there are very few serious/ genuine buyers.

Supply increases, people see the price of what they thought was a safe place to leave their money become risky and more come to the market. The ones who are sensible and need to sell will pitch there car slightly lower than others, the ones who don’t are rolling the dice…..

This applies only to driver / purchasers .... but a lot of the cars advertised are with dealers who themselves are seeing many of the same reasons not to hold stock. Hence the argument applies also to them ... that the best value cars will sell and the others will be a roll of the die.
What happens when dealers NEED cash flow ?

[Mumsn3t]

ChrisW. said:

This applies only to driver / purchasers .... but a lot of the cars advertised are with dealers who themselves are seeing many of the same reasons not to hold stock. Hence the argument applies also to them ... that the best value cars will sell and the others will be a roll of the die.
What happens when dealers NEED cash flow ?

This happened to a friend in 2008. He was substantially under water on almost all good stock. Took a bath and lost a huge amount of money.

[Andyoz]

rkwm1 said:

Looking for evidence?? Its there for everyone to see. They fell off the cliff a while back......now are well on the way down!!

Yes, I definitely saw some decent price chops around Truss budget and now it's a steady decline...There's now 5 x 992 GT3's at sub £200k on OPC site.
991.2 GT3 prices getting the chop too as the price compression happens (as predicted).

Sure they are 'overs' but the thing is that's evaporating fast and it's a feedback loop. Lads will just sit on their hands until next year unless they really need one and no one really needs a Porsche.

[Curv3hunter]

freedman said:

Curv3hunter said:

The best trade offer I got in 2019 when I sold my 981 GT4 was 63k. High spec Clubsport, PCCB etc.
3 closest OPC wouldn't even give a trade bid.

The same car now/previous 18 months would be 10-15k more. Prices just need to realign to pre covid.

There is surely no chance of getting a trade bid at £73-£78k, when there are cars being retailed at under £70k

You wouldnt now but 6-12 months ago it was possible.

[GT4RS]

ChrisW. said:

GT4RS said:

bus_ter said:

Window shopping on Autotrader (as you do) and noticed there are now 90 718 GT4's and 30 981 GT4's for Sale. Prices down to the £60K's

That's quite a remarkable change from just 6 months ago. Is the current financial climate about to crash the price of GT cars?

Here’s a couple of interesting questions.

Is there 120 genuine buyers currently in the Uk seriously looking to buy a used gt4 at an inflated price over or just under list?

Or

Is there 120 genuine buyers currently in the Uk seriously looking to buy a used gt4 at an inflated price over or just under list, in a falling market?

Or

Is there 120 genuine buyers currently in the Uk seriously looking to buy a used gt4 at an inflated price over or just under list, in a falling market and are comfortable borrowing at a high interest rate between 11 and 14%

Or

Is there 120 genuine buyers currently in the Uk seriously looking to buy a used gt4 at an inflated price over or just under list, in a falling market, comfortable borrowing at a high interest rate between 11 and 14% and happy to have a guarantee future value set far lower than they ever expected?

My guess is there’s plenty of dreamers and window shoppers, but there are very few serious/ genuine buyers.

Supply increases, people see the price of what they thought was a safe place to leave their money become risky and more come to the market. The ones who are sensible and need to sell will pitch there car slightly lower than others, the ones who don’t are rolling the dice…..

This applies only to driver / purchasers .... but a lot of the cars advertised are with dealers who themselves are seeing many of the same reasons not to hold stock. Hence the argument applies also to them ... that the best value cars will sell and the others will be a roll of the die.
What happens when dealers NEED cash flow ?

Very good point, I would imagine many of the GT cars we see for sale in independents are SOR, but yes some will have stock on stocking loans which wouldn’t be good for them. From my understanding many porsche centres are now unwilling to buy gt cars or 992 turbo s cars unless they are well below market prices as there far to many for sale and not enough buyers.

As someone else mentioned many who don’t need to buy now and don’t fancy loosing their shirt will sit and wait.

What’s surprising is Ashgood have a 991.2 gt3 for 127k and it hasn’t sold yet. This car is a good 10k cheaper than others! What hope do the £145k 991.2 gt3 cars have !

[ChrisW.]

I am also hearing that the OPC's are starting to see a lot of order cancellations ... in the short term this reduces waiting times and releases a few fixed build cars for potential customers who could not place orders, so more reason to phone around if anybody is looking for a car ?

But beyond a certain point, I wonder what the outcome of this may be ?

[Andyoz]

ChrisW. said:

I am also hearing that the OPC's are starting to see a lot of order cancellations ... in the short term this reduces waiting times and releases a few fixed build cars for potential customers who could not place orders, so more reason to phone around if anybody is looking for a car ?

But beyond a certain point, I wonder what the outcome of this may be ?

Yes, people here on PH have stated they have cancelled orders and I personally know people that have cancelled orders.

Suddenly, their current car looks just fine in the face of PCP monthly that would increase by up to 50%...

The supply/demand shocks that were predicted at the start of Covid have years to play out yet.
One things for sure, manufacturers need to keep pumping out cars so they won't let up and they don't give a fook what it does to used prices.

Edited by Andyoz on Wednesday 7th December 15:12