Will you be EV or internal combustion in ten years/?/
Discussion
Zetec-S said:
ad13 said:
But for a lot of people owning a car is a (for want of a better word) 'emotional' experience.
Yes, for plenty of people it's a method for getting from A to B, but it's still theirs, they can keep it shiny, impress the neighbours, use it when they want, etcI'd rather pay more and own my car knowing I've looked after it, than running the autonomous taxi lottery and never knowing what to expect.
Amen to all that, and I hope you're right. But I know very few young (under 30) people who actually *work* on cars - they expect to be able to get in and drive, and if it needs work they think the work can be done by clicking a mouse. That kind of mindset leads inexorably towards the autonomous taxi experience rather than the polishing-the-car-outside-the-suburban-bungalow experience.Yes, for plenty of people it's a method for getting from A to B, but it's still theirs, they can keep it shiny, impress the neighbours, use it when they want, etcI'd rather pay more and own my car knowing I've looked after it, than running the autonomous taxi lottery and never knowing what to expect.
I read a while back that if a young bloke wants to impress his girlfriend nowadays he buys a new phone, whereas 40 (even probably 20) years ago he bought a fancy car.
westernlancia said:
The problem with 2nd hand EVs isn't going to be the price of purchase - a 7-year-old EV won't be worth a row of beans, but it will be because the batteries last for about that long and are so expensive to replace, and no-one will want to spend £2-3000 on batteries for a car that's worth 5 hundred quid.
If you don't believe me, what effect does (for instance) the cost of replacing an Audi Tiptronic gearbox (been there, done that, no more Audis for me...) have on the value of the car? It might sound like a great deal to buy an Audi that needs a new gearbox for £500, spend £2000 on the gearbox, and have a reliable car that at least won't need a gearbox rebuild - but in practice no-one does it and they all end up in scrapyards.
As the Leafs (Leaves?) will.
Just my 2 cents worth, but as a massive fan of bangernomics I don't see EVs fitting into the purchasing patterns of people like me...
Depends on what you expect out of the batteries as well, everything I've seen recently suggests that while the batteries will deteriorate they aren't deteriorating as quickly as people expected. If the car had a usable range of say 120 miles when brand new but dropped to 80 miles after 7 years, then that would be plenty for the role I would expect such a Leaf to do.If you don't believe me, what effect does (for instance) the cost of replacing an Audi Tiptronic gearbox (been there, done that, no more Audis for me...) have on the value of the car? It might sound like a great deal to buy an Audi that needs a new gearbox for £500, spend £2000 on the gearbox, and have a reliable car that at least won't need a gearbox rebuild - but in practice no-one does it and they all end up in scrapyards.
As the Leafs (Leaves?) will.
Just my 2 cents worth, but as a massive fan of bangernomics I don't see EVs fitting into the purchasing patterns of people like me...
I'm also expecting the cost of replacement batteries to come down as well, not massively but enough to make it worth car sales garages time to swap out the batteries to increase resale. The rest of a Leaf should be fine at 7 years old, even less to go wrong than a normal small Japanese hatchback.
I want the flying cars and personal rocket packs promised in the 1960s before I start considering the EVs being promised in 10 years!
On a more serious note - EVs have some massive hurdles to overcome - people may accept one as a 2nd car, but people also want a car they can jump into and drive 300 miles right now, at no notice, should they need to.
Yes, it rarely happens - but people don't like uncertainty - if you have to load balance charging EVs, as we will, someone will go to their car to answer a family emergency and find it's not scheduled to charge until the small hours of the morning - based on their usual usage pattern.
That that point, lots of cursing and wishing they had an ICE will happen!
It only takes one or two incidents of an EV inconveniencing your life to put people off them.
On a more serious note - EVs have some massive hurdles to overcome - people may accept one as a 2nd car, but people also want a car they can jump into and drive 300 miles right now, at no notice, should they need to.
Yes, it rarely happens - but people don't like uncertainty - if you have to load balance charging EVs, as we will, someone will go to their car to answer a family emergency and find it's not scheduled to charge until the small hours of the morning - based on their usual usage pattern.
That that point, lots of cursing and wishing they had an ICE will happen!
It only takes one or two incidents of an EV inconveniencing your life to put people off them.
tankplanker said:
epends on what you expect out of the batteries as well, everything I've seen recently suggests that while the batteries will deteriorate they aren't deteriorating as quickly as people expected. If the car had a usable range of say 120 miles when brand new but dropped to 80 miles after 7 years, then that would be plenty for the role I would expect such a Leaf to do.
I'm also expecting the cost of replacement batteries to come down as well, not massively but enough to make it worth car sales garages time to swap out the batteries to increase resale. The rest of a Leaf should be fine at 7 years old, even less to go wrong than a normal small Japanese hatchback.
All fair points, and I'm not trying to 'diss' the idea (I use a 1992 Nissan Micra K10 as a daily, and it's an amazing car). But the ranges quoted are optimistic even when new - they don't take account of heating, lights and other drains on the battery, so the idea of a 7-year-old one with a useful range of 60 miles with the lights on is a bit scary.I'm also expecting the cost of replacement batteries to come down as well, not massively but enough to make it worth car sales garages time to swap out the batteries to increase resale. The rest of a Leaf should be fine at 7 years old, even less to go wrong than a normal small Japanese hatchback.
As for battery prices - surely those are within the gift of the manufacturers? Depends how much profit they are going to want to make on them, but manufacturers do not have a good record in bringing down parts prices for older cars to help people keep them on the road. VW are a fairly honourable exception and recently dropped the spares prices on older cars quite a lot (it makes sense from their point of view because it increases residuals). But most of the others, when you go into the garage and ask for a part for your 12-year-old car worth £250, are quite happy to look you in the face and say 'that'll be £800, Sir'.
A few years back I called in at my local Audi place for some parts for that awful A6 I had, and the cars on the forecourt (rearcourt actually) were mostly burnt out. They wouldn't tell me what the problem was, but I understood from the paintless dent removal bloke, who also worked for us, that someone had left an old A4 in there with instructions to call if the work it needed was expensive. According to said PDR man they didn't call, and when he went in on Monday morning to collect it they said 'that'll be £800 (or whatever) + VAT, Sir'. So he told them they could bloody keep it, and on the way out he chucked a match in it (his car, after all). So I was told, anyway...
Edited by westernlancia on Friday 2nd June 11:13
Trabi601 said:
I want the flying cars and personal rocket packs promised in the 1960s before I start considering the EVs being promised in 10 years!
On a more serious note - EVs have some massive hurdles to overcome
It only takes one or two incidents of an EV inconveniencing your life to put people off them.
The thing which for me would be a deal breaker is the fact that when the battery goes flat on you, you are buggered. I live in a very rural area (nearest big town 40 miles away), and the thought of getting nearly all the way back and then running out of battery in the dark 10 miles away gives me the willies.On a more serious note - EVs have some massive hurdles to overcome
It only takes one or two incidents of an EV inconveniencing your life to put people off them.
A while back I broke down with my car trailer on the back in a Devon lane at 1 a.m., and the lights and hazards on the trailer were pretty weak because the towcar's battery was on the way out.
It was only when I heard the rising crescendo of someone who had gone out for a 'blast', approaching from about a mile away, that I realised I was completely toast if he came round the bend and my trailer was there - a broken-down trailer round a dark bend isn't what you usually expect to find in a Devon lane in the dark when you're out for a bit of fun in your Elise.
So I ran about 200 yards and put out my warning triangle, and then ran as far as I could and waved my arms at him (I was worried about getting run over). Luckily he saw me and slowed down, but it need not have been like that.
I would have thought that EVs with flat batteries round blind bends at night will be a fairly common occurrence once they become widespread. And they won't have any lights on because the batteries will be flat...
westernlancia said:
All fair points, and I'm not trying to 'diss' the idea (I use a 1992 Nissan Micra K10 as a daily, and it's an amazing car). But the ranges quoted are optimistic even when new - they don't take account of heating, lights and other drains on the battery, so the idea of a 7-year-old one with a useful range of 60 miles with the lights on is a bit scary.
As for battery prices - surely those are within the gift of the manufacturers? Depends how much profit they are going to want to make on them, but manufacturers do not have a good record in bringing down parts prices for older cars to help people keep them on the road. VW are a fairly honourable exception and recently dropped the spares prices on older cars quite a lot (it makes sense from their point of view because it increases residuals). But most of the others, when you go into the garage and ask for a part for your 12-year-old car worth £250, are quite happy to look you in the face and say 'that'll be £800, Sir'.[/url]
I'm fully expecting third parties to step in for the batteries, like I know they have already for the Insight: https://bumblebeebatteries.com/hybrid-batteries/ho... you can even get Lithium Ion replacements: http://www.insightcentral.net/forums/modifications... so with a bit of luck I'd expect other early EVs to get similar treatment. As the Leaf is so cheap, and the majority of the cars in very good knick, then upgrading the battery to be a common task. It should be within the purview of even an average mechanic, on the Leaf it seems to be replacing the floor from the underneath as the battery is integral to the floor. As for battery prices - surely those are within the gift of the manufacturers? Depends how much profit they are going to want to make on them, but manufacturers do not have a good record in bringing down parts prices for older cars to help people keep them on the road. VW are a fairly honourable exception and recently dropped the spares prices on older cars quite a lot (it makes sense from their point of view because it increases residuals). But most of the others, when you go into the garage and ask for a part for your 12-year-old car worth £250, are quite happy to look you in the face and say 'that'll be £800, Sir'.[/url]
Edited by westernlancia on Friday 2nd June 11:13
The range of 120 miles I quoted is based on experience of the current 30kwh leaf, which is advertised at 155 miles. I wouldn't want anything with smaller batteries than that personally. Although I'm expecting battery replacements to allow for upgrading a lesser models battery capacity to even more than the 30kwh currently offered. I know Telsa have recently doubled the battery capacity in the lab, by the time I am ready even a 50% capacity increase should be available in the wild.
tankplanker said:
'm fully expecting third parties to step in for the batteries, like I know they have already for the Insight:
As the Leaf is so cheap, and the majority of the cars in very good knick, then upgrading the battery to be a common task. It should be within the purview of even an average mechanic, on the Leaf it seems to be replacing the floor from the underneath as the battery is integral to the floor.
The range of 120 miles I quoted is based on experience of the current 30kwh leaf, which is advertised at 155 miles.
I know Telsa have recently doubled the battery capacity in the lab, by the time I am ready even a 50% capacity increase should be available in the wild.
And there's also the fact that the technology is advancing very fast. But I'd still worry about breaking down round that blind bend in the dark, while trying to squeeze those extra few miles out of the dying battery...As the Leaf is so cheap, and the majority of the cars in very good knick, then upgrading the battery to be a common task. It should be within the purview of even an average mechanic, on the Leaf it seems to be replacing the floor from the underneath as the battery is integral to the floor.
The range of 120 miles I quoted is based on experience of the current 30kwh leaf, which is advertised at 155 miles.
I know Telsa have recently doubled the battery capacity in the lab, by the time I am ready even a 50% capacity increase should be available in the wild.
westernlancia said:
And there's also the fact that the technology is advancing very fast. But I'd still worry about breaking down round that blind bend in the dark, while trying to squeeze those extra few miles out of the dying battery...
On a regular commute that should only happen due to a lack of planning. You should know how far you are going and how far the battery will go for all trips in an EV. I do this already in my ICE cars as I prefer to plan my fill ups so I can buy the fuel cheaper and I can't remember the last time I had to fill up somewhere other than of my choosing. Irregular, urgent journeys are something else, the latest Prius would be a far better fit once it has had a chance to age and drop its price.tankplanker said:
n a regular commute that should only happen due to a lack of planning. You should know how far you are going and how far the battery will go for all trips in an EV. I do this already in my ICE cars as I prefer to plan my fill ups so I can buy the fuel cheaper and I can't remember the last time I had to fill up somewhere other than of my choosing. Irregular, urgent journeys are something else, the latest Prius would be a far better fit once it has had a chance to age and drop its price.
Very little of my life is planned - I run a diesel company car, a couple of petrol powered toys / track cars and a petrol / LPG campervan.LPG range and availability anxiety is bad enough, and that's knowing I have a tank of unleaded to fall back on! - I'd never leave the house if I had to rely on an EV. My anxiety would get the better of me!
Trabi601 said:
Very little of my life is planned - I run a diesel company car, a couple of petrol powered toys / track cars and a petrol / LPG campervan.
LPG range and availability anxiety is bad enough, and that's knowing I have a tank of unleaded to fall back on! - I'd never leave the house if I had to rely on an EV. My anxiety would get the better of me!
It's exactly my experiences with LPG that have put me off an EV!! I tow with an old Volvo 940 on LPG, and it does about 15-18 mpg when towing. A while ago I drove it back from Sicily with an Integrale on the trailer, and I spent literally the entire journey looking for LPG stations, because its range at that MPG on my tank is about 110 miles. As you can imagine, I did a lot of miles on petrol (ouch!) because there weren't always LPG stations in the right places (it's especially bad south of Naples). LPG range and availability anxiety is bad enough, and that's knowing I have a tank of unleaded to fall back on! - I'd never leave the house if I had to rely on an EV. My anxiety would get the better of me!
And if you add to that the 20 minutes or so it takes to fill up, once you have queued behind the couple in the Dutch campervan who have gone to lunch and left their rig at the only pump, it is really an enervating experience. I reckon that the 20-25 LPG stops at getting on for half an hour each, including slowing down and speeding up time, added around a full day (plus a night's hotel costs) to my travel time.
But at least with an LPG car I can switch to petrol when it runs out...
Edited by westernlancia on Friday 2nd June 12:44
I drove using LPG for more than ten years.Never felt nervous about it.
It is the beginning of the end for the internal combustion engines for cars.Pollution for starters and technology is moving on.The Chinese are investing big in electric cars of the future the bandwagon is rolling on.
It is the beginning of the end for the internal combustion engines for cars.Pollution for starters and technology is moving on.The Chinese are investing big in electric cars of the future the bandwagon is rolling on.
One thing's certain; If everyone changed to electric vehicles tomorrow, then there would be a lot of frustrated drivers going nowhere, and the lights would be going out. 
There's barely enough generating capacity during peak times in winter to meet present demand. So I think I'll keep my clean diesel (EURO 6) just in case. 
There's barely enough generating capacity during peak times in winter to meet present demand. So I think I'll keep my clean diesel (EURO 6) just in case. 
BoRED S2upid said:
tankplanker said:
I will go EV only when self driving cars becomes mandatory for road use.
Never then. I can certainly see a future where we have an EV for short trips and a proper car over say 100 miles ew.
Self drive will be limited to big cities.
I plan to be running a Tesla model 3 towards the end of next year, can't bloody wait!
I had a 24kwh leaf for two weeks, my commute was 35 miles each way. It was a cold January last year. I had no issues with the return journey, usually with 30 miles range remaining each day. No issues.
I'm a petrol head but I'm also a tech geek.
The idea of never having to queue up at a petrol station to fill up THEN having to queue to pay while someone pays for their weekly shop/ latte etc combined with the reassurance of waking up to car with a full charge allowing me to travel approx 200+ real world miles with no planning and all across Europe with minimal planning due to tesla sat Nov planning a supercharger pit stop is just brilliant.
I had a 24kwh leaf for two weeks, my commute was 35 miles each way. It was a cold January last year. I had no issues with the return journey, usually with 30 miles range remaining each day. No issues.
I'm a petrol head but I'm also a tech geek.
The idea of never having to queue up at a petrol station to fill up THEN having to queue to pay while someone pays for their weekly shop/ latte etc combined with the reassurance of waking up to car with a full charge allowing me to travel approx 200+ real world miles with no planning and all across Europe with minimal planning due to tesla sat Nov planning a supercharger pit stop is just brilliant.
westernlancia said:
I would have thought that EVs with flat batteries round blind bends at night will be a fairly common occurrence once they become widespread. And they won't have any lights on because the batteries will be flat...
FWIW most EVs still run lights and indicators from the 12v battery, not the traction battery..I have zero interest in electric vehicles from a driver's point of view and from an ownership point of view.
My three modes of vehicle currently are (1) the workhorse (Audi S4) and (2) the pride and joy fun machine (McLaren 12C) and (3) my track toy (Caterham R500)
I'll still be internal combustion engine with petrol in ten years and beyond.
I don't even fancy the idea of hybrids.
Absolute acceleration is not the major factor when I choose a car so the hype around how electric vehicles can get to 60mph or 100mph is totally irrelevant to myself and I suspect to many other driver focused minds.
My current 'fleet' may change in ten years but they'll always be petrol combustion.
Mainly because with IC engines as a driver you can hear what is happening in terms of power delivery, gearing, potential acceleration and more importantly the power delivery of an IC engine forms a major character of the vehicle that gives it definition.
I've only driven one electric vehicle so far (Tesla) as a pure point of curiosity and it was 'sole-less' to say the least.
My three modes of vehicle currently are (1) the workhorse (Audi S4) and (2) the pride and joy fun machine (McLaren 12C) and (3) my track toy (Caterham R500)
I'll still be internal combustion engine with petrol in ten years and beyond.
I don't even fancy the idea of hybrids.
Absolute acceleration is not the major factor when I choose a car so the hype around how electric vehicles can get to 60mph or 100mph is totally irrelevant to myself and I suspect to many other driver focused minds.
My current 'fleet' may change in ten years but they'll always be petrol combustion.
Mainly because with IC engines as a driver you can hear what is happening in terms of power delivery, gearing, potential acceleration and more importantly the power delivery of an IC engine forms a major character of the vehicle that gives it definition.
I've only driven one electric vehicle so far (Tesla) as a pure point of curiosity and it was 'sole-less' to say the least.
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