The cloudy future of the German Car industry gets worse..
Discussion
It's a funny old world isn't it. We're just at the beginning of a change in how our personal vehicles are powered for the first time since the horse moved to the ICE. We have a bunch of people already convinced that it'll never work. It might not be the long term future but it will be the short term future.
People seem to be forgetting that the ICE cars have had 100 years of development & untold amounts of investment to get them to this point. EV's are absolute babies in comparison, imagine what the developments will be in the next 20 years alone?
I'm not sure we're even at the Ford Model T level of development for EV's yet. The Model T was the first affordable car, everything before that was still pretty rare & expensive. I wouldn't even put Tesla's along side the T at the moment, still rare & expensive for most people. Imagine what will happen once the Model T EV appears that makes them cheap and in reach of the majority.
People don't like change, I get that but it's doesn't seem hard to imagine in a few years that lightweight, fast charging, great handling & reasonable priced EV's will arrive. History tells us this happens. What I can also see is that the next change after that will not 100 years
I'd add I'm not some kind of blinded evangelist as I own 4 v8's but I'd love a car I could run for buttons, charge up at home whilst I'm asleep, is as nice a place to be as my Range Rover & goes like the clappers I, just can't afford one yet!
People seem to be forgetting that the ICE cars have had 100 years of development & untold amounts of investment to get them to this point. EV's are absolute babies in comparison, imagine what the developments will be in the next 20 years alone?
I'm not sure we're even at the Ford Model T level of development for EV's yet. The Model T was the first affordable car, everything before that was still pretty rare & expensive. I wouldn't even put Tesla's along side the T at the moment, still rare & expensive for most people. Imagine what will happen once the Model T EV appears that makes them cheap and in reach of the majority.
People don't like change, I get that but it's doesn't seem hard to imagine in a few years that lightweight, fast charging, great handling & reasonable priced EV's will arrive. History tells us this happens. What I can also see is that the next change after that will not 100 years
I'd add I'm not some kind of blinded evangelist as I own 4 v8's but I'd love a car I could run for buttons, charge up at home whilst I'm asleep, is as nice a place to be as my Range Rover & goes like the clappers I, just can't afford one yet!
Edited by Jammez on Friday 15th November 10:37
RDMcG said:
As one of those GT3 people who actually track cars I am sadly convinced that the era is ending. Not just because of the emissions issue either.
(1) The world is becoming increasingly urbanized in many places. Very prevalent in North America with small towns dying everywhere.
(2) 5G is just a blip now but will launch a huge range of high speed services only available in dense areas
(3) fewer young people are getting drivers’ licenses.
(4) more and more cities are restricting cars
(5) Taycan. - when a company like Porsche goes electric we are screwed.
(6) society pressures. I now feel a bit uneasy having multiple cars. I drove a Panamera Turbo into Berlin in the summer and ran smack into a huge anti-ICE demo.
I think the era of the private car in the next
20 years will change drastically. It was a helluva run-from the jalopies of my youth to the raw cars to the performance stuff now. For the first time in decades I do not have a planned car. Maybe one more RS but even then it would be my last.
At some stage I suppose some kind of intelligent EV for geriatrics might show up and I could sit in the back and read the paper - but there will be no papers any more. Stop off for a ham sandwich and find that the Ham has been replaced with tofu.
Brave new world.
Maybe it’s just getting interesting...(1) The world is becoming increasingly urbanized in many places. Very prevalent in North America with small towns dying everywhere.
(2) 5G is just a blip now but will launch a huge range of high speed services only available in dense areas
(3) fewer young people are getting drivers’ licenses.
(4) more and more cities are restricting cars
(5) Taycan. - when a company like Porsche goes electric we are screwed.
(6) society pressures. I now feel a bit uneasy having multiple cars. I drove a Panamera Turbo into Berlin in the summer and ran smack into a huge anti-ICE demo.
I think the era of the private car in the next
20 years will change drastically. It was a helluva run-from the jalopies of my youth to the raw cars to the performance stuff now. For the first time in decades I do not have a planned car. Maybe one more RS but even then it would be my last.
At some stage I suppose some kind of intelligent EV for geriatrics might show up and I could sit in the back and read the paper - but there will be no papers any more. Stop off for a ham sandwich and find that the Ham has been replaced with tofu.
Brave new world.
NorthernUproar said:
Maybe it’s just getting interesting...
Possibly so. Great change occurs much faster than. we think.1885 First car
1900 Lots of manufacturers
1908 Model T.....
so 23 years to cars for the people.
These are very short times. In 1884 almost nobody could imagine a car.
look back 23 years...1996.
Seems short.
Yet the World Wide Web was only 4 years old and the iPhone was not to be for another 11 years.
Yes- we could see major changes in 23 years.
Jammez said:
People don't like change, I get that but it's doesn't seem hard to imagine in a few years that lightweight, fast charging, great handling & reasonable priced EV's will arrive. History tells us this happens. What I can also see is that the next change after that will not 100 years
Dear me, wrong on just about every point.Ferdinand Porsche worked on battery powered electric vehicles in his early days. He abandoned it because ICE had more potential. Electrics have had every bit as much development as ICE and we are where we are.
People do like change, they want improvement, that is why they buy new cars. People don't like politically driven change which forces them to buy a poorer product for a higher price. Do they want a car which costs a fortune, is inconvenient to run, and in a very short time will be a technical museum piece for whatever reason? Do you? Really?
History doesn't tell us that miracles happen because we wish for them. In 1963 we thought by 2000 we would all have flying cars, personal submarines and ray guns, and we would travel to Mars on holiday. You should always beware of the future as visualised from the past, though it gave us Flash Gordon and Batman.
Politicians, not history, tell us our dreams will come true. Remember 'the White Heat of Technology' which in 1963 Harold Wilson promised us would make Britain great? Technology is driven by necessity, commerce, resources and science, and delivers what it delivers, like nuclear power, jet engines and the internet, not what people expected at all.
Unfortunately we are living in an era where we are promised everything we want by politicians who think that they can tell the most outrageous lies with complete impunity, and we think that we can make things happen just by talking about them.
The automotive future may be rather different to what you expect.
Cardigankid
I agree with pretty much everything you have written on this subject and admire your ability to write intelligently and without emotion
There was an excellent article in The Guardian recently by a German University lecturer called Dr Hans Werner Sinn. There is a great bit in it where he says "EU lawmakers deliberately took Europeans for a ride"
Cheers
Philip
I agree with pretty much everything you have written on this subject and admire your ability to write intelligently and without emotion
There was an excellent article in The Guardian recently by a German University lecturer called Dr Hans Werner Sinn. There is a great bit in it where he says "EU lawmakers deliberately took Europeans for a ride"
Cheers
Philip
PhilipRM said:
There was an excellent article in The Guardian recently by a German University lecturer called Dr Hans Werner Sinn. There is a great bit in it where he says "EU lawmakers deliberately took Europeans for a ride"
Which was quickly debunked as unscientific opinion piece based on false data...I don't live in the UK so whilst I read the article I didn't see the debunking. If you don't mind taking the time I would be interested in learning who "debunked as unscientific opinion piece" and what was the supposed "false data".
My suspicion is that there is no doubt a lot of false data on both sides of the argument.
My suspicion is that there is no doubt a lot of false data on both sides of the argument.
Germany’s sprawling industrial sector is suffering its steepest downturn for a decade, underlining how the engine of the eurozone’s biggest economy is sputtering.Industrial output, which includes Germany’s dominant factory sector, dropped 5.3 per cent in October from the same month in 2018, according to the Federal Statistics Office. The figures suggest that the German industrial slowdown is likely to weigh on overall euro zone growth in the fourth quarter. Reconditioned engines
eAyeAddio said:
I just don't get why some people are so opposed to electric cars......... Have you seen the performance figures for the Porsche Taycan?.......... They are astonishing.
This is PISTONheads forum - and not the 70's milk float appreciation society 
Acceleration is a 'thing' for milk floats, but for many an ICE 'wins' at everything else.
A number of months ago I was invited to drive a Tesla - went along as my car was being serviced any ways, and apart from the acceleration, the milk float just felt like some cheesy uninspiring gadget.
It also felt like its just one step away from the age of 'autonomous milk floats' - the driver engagements was that uninvolving and disconnected.
With this being a motoring enthusiast forum I guess I'm on the other end of the scale wondering why some on here are vying for milk floats to take over from 'normal' ICE cars?
V10leptoquark said:
This is PISTONheads forum - and not the 70's milk float appreciation society
Acceleration is a 'thing' for milk floats, but for many an ICE 'wins' at everything else.
A number of months ago I was invited to drive a Tesla - went along as my car was being serviced any ways, and apart from the acceleration, the milk float just felt like some cheesy uninspiring gadget.
It also felt like its just one step away from the age of 'autonomous milk floats' - the driver engagements was that uninvolving and disconnected.
With this being a motoring enthusiast forum I guess I'm on the other end of the scale wondering why some on here are vying for milk floats to take over from 'normal' ICE cars?
agree. milk floats are the future for 99.99% of driving. to be clear, they're fast, comfortable, clean and green. but reviews of them should be in Stuff magazine. PH should shrink in to a driving hobby site. Acceleration is a 'thing' for milk floats, but for many an ICE 'wins' at everything else.
A number of months ago I was invited to drive a Tesla - went along as my car was being serviced any ways, and apart from the acceleration, the milk float just felt like some cheesy uninspiring gadget.
It also felt like its just one step away from the age of 'autonomous milk floats' - the driver engagements was that uninvolving and disconnected.
With this being a motoring enthusiast forum I guess I'm on the other end of the scale wondering why some on here are vying for milk floats to take over from 'normal' ICE cars?
it gets more interesting/confusing when an EV sports car is released.
Like other commentators, I am and have been over 40 years, a petrolhead. So I would like to continue enjoying driving ICE powered vehicles and I am extremely sceptical about some of the info I read on electric cars. So naturally when I read what I thought was an interesting article written giving for once what I see as some of the real issues, I put it in an earlier post.
Now Lt. Coulomb very quickly responded to my post with "Which was quickly debunked as unscientific opinion piece based on false data..."
I thought that was an interesting reply so I asked him who debunked and what was the false data. I am still waiting for a response so I guess that Lt. Coulomb has
a) gone on holiday and is not following the thread anymore
b) decided he can't be bothered to reply to my request
c) found himself incapable of answering my follow-up questions
I hope it's a) and I'd still be pleased to read his reply. As i also stated i suspect there is a lot of false date floating around both sides of the argument but I for one am not at all convinced but what I have read and seen so far that electric vehicles are the saviour to our climate change crisis.
Cheers
Philip
Now Lt. Coulomb very quickly responded to my post with "Which was quickly debunked as unscientific opinion piece based on false data..."
I thought that was an interesting reply so I asked him who debunked and what was the false data. I am still waiting for a response so I guess that Lt. Coulomb has
a) gone on holiday and is not following the thread anymore
b) decided he can't be bothered to reply to my request
c) found himself incapable of answering my follow-up questions
I hope it's a) and I'd still be pleased to read his reply. As i also stated i suspect there is a lot of false date floating around both sides of the argument but I for one am not at all convinced but what I have read and seen so far that electric vehicles are the saviour to our climate change crisis.
Cheers
Philip
This is the point. If there are advantages in the current raft of EV’s then let’s hear about it. Instead, what we seem to get is ‘EV’s are the future, anyone who can’t see it is old/stupid/a nazi.’ No actual debate or argument.
The whole CO2/MMGW agenda is an apparently simple solution to an extremely complex and very real problem, namely pollution. I would suggest that we need to be extremely sceptical of politicians who offer us simple solutions.
The use of young people, in my view a form of child abuse, is the cynical manipulation of those who do not have the information or experience to make rational judgements, by people in a position of trust. It proves nothing.
The whole CO2/MMGW agenda is an apparently simple solution to an extremely complex and very real problem, namely pollution. I would suggest that we need to be extremely sceptical of politicians who offer us simple solutions.
The use of young people, in my view a form of child abuse, is the cynical manipulation of those who do not have the information or experience to make rational judgements, by people in a position of trust. It proves nothing.
Fundamentally an electric car is a better product, you can charge it at home, it’s more reliable, it’s cleaner, it’s potentially can be upgraded. It can be powered by energy from multiple sources.
I’m surprised when I see 60 year olds who have been driving for 40 years still desperately wanting to cling onto the ICE ownership experience and mindset. They want to go to a petrol station, they want to go and get the plugs and timing belt changed and negotiate pricing with dealers. They want to ring around multiple dealers to get pricing for servicing their cars.
I’m only 32 and I was getting quite tired of the ownership experience of ICE cars so I’ve no idea how old timers insist on keeping on going.
I’m surprised when I see 60 year olds who have been driving for 40 years still desperately wanting to cling onto the ICE ownership experience and mindset. They want to go to a petrol station, they want to go and get the plugs and timing belt changed and negotiate pricing with dealers. They want to ring around multiple dealers to get pricing for servicing their cars.
I’m only 32 and I was getting quite tired of the ownership experience of ICE cars so I’ve no idea how old timers insist on keeping on going.
Edited by jamoor on Sunday 15th December 02:16
jamoor said:
Fundamentally an electric car is a better product, you can charge it at home, it’s more reliable, it’s cleaner, it’s potentially can be upgraded. It can be powered by energy from multiple sources.
I’m surprised when I see 60 year olds who have been driving for 40 years still desperately wanting to cling onto the ICE ownership experience and mindset. They want to go to a petrol station, they want to go and get the plugs and timing belt changed and negotiate pricing with dealers. They want to ring around multiple dealers to get pricing for servicing their cars.
I’m only 32 and I was getting quite tired of the ownership experience of ICE cars so I’ve no idea how old timers insist on keeping on going.
that's as biased post as some of those from the old dogs.I’m surprised when I see 60 year olds who have been driving for 40 years still desperately wanting to cling onto the ICE ownership experience and mindset. They want to go to a petrol station, they want to go and get the plugs and timing belt changed and negotiate pricing with dealers. They want to ring around multiple dealers to get pricing for servicing their cars.
I’m only 32 and I was getting quite tired of the ownership experience of ICE cars so I’ve no idea how old timers insist on keeping on going.
Edited by jamoor on Sunday 15th December 02:16
for daily commute you're 100% correct, except for the petrol station. that's still better than the current charging network for some user profiles. that's being addressed so it's just a matter of time.
As we're on PH, people here should see cars and driving as some kind of hobby though? Name a BEV that you'd get up at 6am for a drive in? or dream of taking on a road trip? That excludes vast majority of ICE, but that's not why we're on PH?
CABC said:
jamoor said:
Fundamentally an electric car is a better product, you can charge it at home, it’s more reliable, it’s cleaner, it’s potentially can be upgraded. It can be powered by energy from multiple sources.
I’m surprised when I see 60 year olds who have been driving for 40 years still desperately wanting to cling onto the ICE ownership experience and mindset. They want to go to a petrol station, they want to go and get the plugs and timing belt changed and negotiate pricing with dealers. They want to ring around multiple dealers to get pricing for servicing their cars.
I’m only 32 and I was getting quite tired of the ownership experience of ICE cars so I’ve no idea how old timers insist on keeping on going.
that's as biased post as some of those from the old dogs.I’m surprised when I see 60 year olds who have been driving for 40 years still desperately wanting to cling onto the ICE ownership experience and mindset. They want to go to a petrol station, they want to go and get the plugs and timing belt changed and negotiate pricing with dealers. They want to ring around multiple dealers to get pricing for servicing their cars.
I’m only 32 and I was getting quite tired of the ownership experience of ICE cars so I’ve no idea how old timers insist on keeping on going.
Edited by jamoor on Sunday 15th December 02:16
for daily commute you're 100% correct, except for the petrol station. that's still better than the current charging network for some user profiles. that's being addressed so it's just a matter of time.
As we're on PH, people here should see cars and driving as some kind of hobby though? Name a BEV that you'd get up at 6am for a drive in? or dream of taking on a road trip? That excludes vast majority of ICE, but that's not why we're on PH?
My points address why the German car industry will die very quickly.
Jamoor, I look at your statement "Fundamentally an electric car is a better product, you can charge it at home, it’s more reliable, it’s cleaner, it’s potentially can be upgraded" and I can pick all sorts of holes:
- "you can charge it at home" Yes if you have an individual house with drive etc. What about all the car owners who leave them outside or people who live in flats
- "it's more reliable" Show me some figures
- "its cleaner" Unless the electrical energy source is renewable you are simply displacing the pollution; Also please explain to me how it can be more energy efficient to displace a heavier vehicle since electric vehicles often way 30-50% more than equivalent ICE. What is the environmental cost of producing a new vehicle and it's electric batteries? What is the environmental cost of disposing of the batteries?
- "it potentially can be upgrade" Sorry I don't understand this one.
I do think there is a place for electric vehicles, particularly in towns and for people who can afford several cars, one of which will be used for short journeys when undeniably ICE has efficiency issues due to warm up time.
I am more than happy to be convinced and proven wrong but until I see some hard figures showing the whole picture I am extremely sceptical about many of the often repeated claims about EV.
Cheers
Philip
- "you can charge it at home" Yes if you have an individual house with drive etc. What about all the car owners who leave them outside or people who live in flats
- "it's more reliable" Show me some figures
- "its cleaner" Unless the electrical energy source is renewable you are simply displacing the pollution; Also please explain to me how it can be more energy efficient to displace a heavier vehicle since electric vehicles often way 30-50% more than equivalent ICE. What is the environmental cost of producing a new vehicle and it's electric batteries? What is the environmental cost of disposing of the batteries?
- "it potentially can be upgrade" Sorry I don't understand this one.
I do think there is a place for electric vehicles, particularly in towns and for people who can afford several cars, one of which will be used for short journeys when undeniably ICE has efficiency issues due to warm up time.
I am more than happy to be convinced and proven wrong but until I see some hard figures showing the whole picture I am extremely sceptical about many of the often repeated claims about EV.
Cheers
Philip
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