F430 Market Watch
Discussion
FFM said:
Thank you Aldous, interesting as always.
Talking about official dealers' F430s priced below 90/95k, I ve seen they increased the prices on their stock by approx. £6k each, over the last two weeks. Interestingly enough, these are the same 5-6 cars that they took on in mid-December.
So net net, they are increasing prices by a good 7% over a month despite A) the same cars remained unsold for a good 1 month and a half, B) increased supply (i.e. number of cars for sale, see data below) and C) bad seasonality
Jan '16 : 26
Feb '16: 28
let's not take into account increased financial market volatility over January, which, let's assume, may put some people off buying...does anyone all the points raised above suggest a pricing re-adjustment in the short-term? or.. am I missing something?
Perhaps they are raising their prices in anticipation of some good weather? I personally think the F430 is undervalued when compared to other Ferrari tipos - if the overall Ferrari market holds at these levels then I think there is room for the F430 to rise more. Just look at what people are paying for a 360....Talking about official dealers' F430s priced below 90/95k, I ve seen they increased the prices on their stock by approx. £6k each, over the last two weeks. Interestingly enough, these are the same 5-6 cars that they took on in mid-December.
So net net, they are increasing prices by a good 7% over a month despite A) the same cars remained unsold for a good 1 month and a half, B) increased supply (i.e. number of cars for sale, see data below) and C) bad seasonality
- of Official dealers' F430s listed on PH:
Jan '16 : 26
Feb '16: 28
let's not take into account increased financial market volatility over January, which, let's assume, may put some people off buying...does anyone all the points raised above suggest a pricing re-adjustment in the short-term? or.. am I missing something?
FFM said:
Aldous: based on what data is available on production numbers, do you have an estimate for F430 Manual LHDs car (Coupe and Spiders), please? Do you think in continental Europe the relative (%) premium of a Manual LHD car is similar to those of RHD's in the UK?
Thanks a lot
I only have UK numbers - sorry. JT may have more insight and he's bound to see this soon.Thanks a lot
I also note the posters above who have provided good insight from the current data available from the international websites.
Apologies for the delay - I've had a lot going on, including being without broadband for a month. To make things worse PH have changed their advert layout which means I cannot provide anything other than a headline update without further development work to the code. I hope to resume normal service next time...
Average asking prices have dropped back 1.29% - probably on the back of the Alistair Bols car @ £150k selling.
Average asking prices have dropped back 1.29% - probably on the back of the Alistair Bols car @ £150k selling.
Right - normal service has pretty much been resumed but be warned that I've got a huge project coming up so if they change the classifieds again I may not be able to alter the code at my end.
For 360 prices head over here.
The average asking price for an F430 is now £96k, up 4.34% in one month - the biggest increase since (my) records began. The index is now 119.86.
Buying interest in the F430 is fairly strong. I am talking to people who are considering the tipo as they want to drive the car. I think that this model could even be considered the "bargain" Ferrari at the moment.
Here's the price vs mileage plot. The line is well fitted and only spoilt by the high priced manuals....
Here's the main data table:
Here's the delta between F1 and manual - I have tried to remove the rogue adverts that list F1 cars as sticks...
That's it for now - I'll have more next month once I've got two consecutive months of good data.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
For 360 prices head over here.
The average asking price for an F430 is now £96k, up 4.34% in one month - the biggest increase since (my) records began. The index is now 119.86.
Buying interest in the F430 is fairly strong. I am talking to people who are considering the tipo as they want to drive the car. I think that this model could even be considered the "bargain" Ferrari at the moment.
Here's the price vs mileage plot. The line is well fitted and only spoilt by the high priced manuals....
Here's the main data table:
Here's the delta between F1 and manual - I have tried to remove the rogue adverts that list F1 cars as sticks...
That's it for now - I'll have more next month once I've got two consecutive months of good data.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
For once I'm able to update the thread on time - the bank holiday weekend sees me taking a break from fixing cars!
For 360 prices please head over here.
Following last months spike in prices, the index has increased again. The average F430 asking price has gone up 1.22% over the last month and is now £97,159 (index at 121.32). At this rate it wont be long until it breaks the £100k barrier.
Buying interest remains strong and the numbers suggest that turnover is approximately 1/3 of the market.
Here's the price vs mileage data:
Big table:
Manual vs F1 delta. If you are driving one of these cars then well done - a couple of years ago you couldn't give away a manual 430!
Here's the change in the data population. I'm not able to scrape the vendor name right now so the table has changed a little.
That's it for now....
For 360 prices please head over here.
Following last months spike in prices, the index has increased again. The average F430 asking price has gone up 1.22% over the last month and is now £97,159 (index at 121.32). At this rate it wont be long until it breaks the £100k barrier.
Buying interest remains strong and the numbers suggest that turnover is approximately 1/3 of the market.
Here's the price vs mileage data:
Big table:
Manual vs F1 delta. If you are driving one of these cars then well done - a couple of years ago you couldn't give away a manual 430!
Here's the change in the data population. I'm not able to scrape the vendor name right now so the table has changed a little.
That's it for now....
Time for another update. For the latest on 360 prices please head over here.
Average F430 asking prices have increased for a third month in a row, adding 1.77% since this time in May. Prices have increased by nearly 11% in 2016 and the average asking price is close to £100k. The index is now 123.47.
I have only just noticed that the bottom of the curve (Nov 2013) was right when I bought my F430 - what timing!
From what I can determine, buying interest in the F430 remains strong. One reason I believe is because the money to buy a prime 360 will get you a good F430.
Here's the main table:
Here's the price vs mileage plot:
Manual cars continue to hold a significant premium over F1 gearboxes. I think the dynamic with these is going to be similar to the CS and Scud where people hold onto their cars and restrict supply. Whether someone will pay £160k for an F430 remains to be seen...
Finally here's the big table showing which cars are in/out of the data population. It's been a work in progress since the advert structure changed so please bear with me.
Average F430 asking prices have increased for a third month in a row, adding 1.77% since this time in May. Prices have increased by nearly 11% in 2016 and the average asking price is close to £100k. The index is now 123.47.
I have only just noticed that the bottom of the curve (Nov 2013) was right when I bought my F430 - what timing!
From what I can determine, buying interest in the F430 remains strong. One reason I believe is because the money to buy a prime 360 will get you a good F430.
Here's the main table:
Here's the price vs mileage plot:
Manual cars continue to hold a significant premium over F1 gearboxes. I think the dynamic with these is going to be similar to the CS and Scud where people hold onto their cars and restrict supply. Whether someone will pay £160k for an F430 remains to be seen...
Finally here's the big table showing which cars are in/out of the data population. It's been a work in progress since the advert structure changed so please bear with me.
This will be a quick update as I'm being nagged to get off the computer and will be at Dunsfold all weekend...
For 360 prices please head over to my blog: https://aldousvoice.com/2016/07/01/ferrari-360-mar...
Average F430 asking prices have increased 0.54% over the last month. The price index now stands at 124.12.
Although aksing prices appear to have risen, my opinion is that we could be at a peak (and this view was formed well before Brexit). Specialist dealers are becoming wary of holding stock so their bid-offer spread has widened (to take into account of any price falls that may occur whilst the car is on the forecourt). Non-specialist dealers are paying strong money for less than perfect cars (both 360 and F430). For me these two things could signal the peak is near – those that know the market are pulling back whilst those who don’t are jumping in with both feet.
A note on Brexit: My opinion is that this will apply pressure to values in the near term. One of the factors that has driven the upwards rise in the market has been the interest in cars as an alternative investment. In times of uncertainty most cash takes a flight to quality and certainty. This alone will dampen demand. If the UK does start to slow down then those people who have “invested” in a Ferrari may wish/need to exit their purchase and could need to discount their asking price to do so. You only need to look at Porsche 991 GT3 RS prices to see what one or two “cheap” cars can do to the overall market.
For 360 prices please head over to my blog: https://aldousvoice.com/2016/07/01/ferrari-360-mar...
Average F430 asking prices have increased 0.54% over the last month. The price index now stands at 124.12.
Although aksing prices appear to have risen, my opinion is that we could be at a peak (and this view was formed well before Brexit). Specialist dealers are becoming wary of holding stock so their bid-offer spread has widened (to take into account of any price falls that may occur whilst the car is on the forecourt). Non-specialist dealers are paying strong money for less than perfect cars (both 360 and F430). For me these two things could signal the peak is near – those that know the market are pulling back whilst those who don’t are jumping in with both feet.
A note on Brexit: My opinion is that this will apply pressure to values in the near term. One of the factors that has driven the upwards rise in the market has been the interest in cars as an alternative investment. In times of uncertainty most cash takes a flight to quality and certainty. This alone will dampen demand. If the UK does start to slow down then those people who have “invested” in a Ferrari may wish/need to exit their purchase and could need to discount their asking price to do so. You only need to look at Porsche 991 GT3 RS prices to see what one or two “cheap” cars can do to the overall market.
Contrary to 360 prices, F430 asking prices have continued to firm up and added 2.32% over the last month. The index is now 127.02 and the average asking price is now over £100k.
The number of cars for sale has actually decreased a touch and the turnover of cars appears to be reasonably healthy. I think one reason supporting F430 prices is that they haven't seen stratospheric increases over the last few years. I, and others, still think they offer remarkable value at these levels.
Here's the big table:
Price vs mileage:
F1 vs manual delta:
And finally, the big table that tries to show which cars are moving in and out of the data population:
The number of cars for sale has actually decreased a touch and the turnover of cars appears to be reasonably healthy. I think one reason supporting F430 prices is that they haven't seen stratospheric increases over the last few years. I, and others, still think they offer remarkable value at these levels.
Here's the big table:
Price vs mileage:
F1 vs manual delta:
And finally, the big table that tries to show which cars are moving in and out of the data population:
Apologies for the delay in updating - I have moved into a new workshop and have a huge backlog of cars to fix.
For the latest on 360 prices please head over here.
The average F430 price in the UK has increased, again, to £102,638. Up an further 0.90% since this time last month.
It's no secret that I think the overall super car market has peaked but there are still exceptions to the rule. I think that the F430 is the safest mainstream Ferrari that you can buy right now - since it hasn't seen the biggest prices rises over the last couple of years I believe there is still some upside . However, if there is a fall back in values then other tipos will fall further (IMO). As it happens, I think the 12C is also undervalued but don't tell Gary...
Overall, there are a lot more cars for sale. I collect prices of most supercars and it's taking a lot longer than usual to gather the data.
The Maserati market is strong right now, with the Granturismo in high demand (although I don't think it'll be going up in value from these levels).
Here's the table:
Price vs mileage:
Transmission differential:
Cheers....
For the latest on 360 prices please head over here.
The average F430 price in the UK has increased, again, to £102,638. Up an further 0.90% since this time last month.
It's no secret that I think the overall super car market has peaked but there are still exceptions to the rule. I think that the F430 is the safest mainstream Ferrari that you can buy right now - since it hasn't seen the biggest prices rises over the last couple of years I believe there is still some upside . However, if there is a fall back in values then other tipos will fall further (IMO). As it happens, I think the 12C is also undervalued but don't tell Gary...
Overall, there are a lot more cars for sale. I collect prices of most supercars and it's taking a lot longer than usual to gather the data.
The Maserati market is strong right now, with the Granturismo in high demand (although I don't think it'll be going up in value from these levels).
Here's the table:
Price vs mileage:
Transmission differential:
Cheers....
Apologies for the tardy update - the first week in October is the busiest time of the year for my family and this year seems worse than usual.
For the latest on 360 prices head over to my webiste.
Average 430 prices fell 2.22% over the last month which leaves the price index at 125.32. I'm not surprised and expect prices to soften further as the nights draw in.
Main table:
Price vs mileage:
F1 vs Manual:
Giant table:
Sorry for such a brief update but I've got paying customers to look after....
For the latest on 360 prices head over to my webiste.
Average 430 prices fell 2.22% over the last month which leaves the price index at 125.32. I'm not surprised and expect prices to soften further as the nights draw in.
Main table:
Price vs mileage:
F1 vs Manual:
Giant table:
Sorry for such a brief update but I've got paying customers to look after....
Apologies for the delay but I've had paying customers to look after. For the latest on 360 prices please head over here.
Average F430 prices have softened a touch further - down 0.56% over the last month. The average price is back under £100k.
The market is very slow right now and stock is steadily piling up. I can't see this changing as the nights draw in but don't expect F430 prices to fall as much as other tipos.
Average F430 prices have softened a touch further - down 0.56% over the last month. The average price is back under £100k.
The market is very slow right now and stock is steadily piling up. I can't see this changing as the nights draw in but don't expect F430 prices to fall as much as other tipos.
For the latest news on how much 360 prices have fallen head over here.
Conversely, average F430 prices have gone up - 2.16% over the last month which brings the average price back up over £100k. As many of you know, this has been driven by a number of very high priced low mileage manuals onto the market. What is interesting is that some of these have actually sold in very short order. With so few manuals made and the lack of a stick in the 458 this sub-section of the market appears to have become disconnected from what is going on elsewhere.
However, buyers for F1 cars are getting in short supply and can afford to be fussy. It is common for deep discounts to be made in order to secure a sale, even at franchised dealers.
Since this is my last update this year I'd like to wish you all the very best for Christmas and the New Year.
Conversely, average F430 prices have gone up - 2.16% over the last month which brings the average price back up over £100k. As many of you know, this has been driven by a number of very high priced low mileage manuals onto the market. What is interesting is that some of these have actually sold in very short order. With so few manuals made and the lack of a stick in the 458 this sub-section of the market appears to have become disconnected from what is going on elsewhere.
However, buyers for F1 cars are getting in short supply and can afford to be fussy. It is common for deep discounts to be made in order to secure a sale, even at franchised dealers.
Since this is my last update this year I'd like to wish you all the very best for Christmas and the New Year.
RamboLambo said:
Great analysis and only a suggestion but maybe some top and tailing would give a fairer reflection of the general market.
There are 4 cars in there at £150k + that bring up the mean average considerably and are low mileage manual cars that are not representative of the others for sale.
If I was to put my F355 manual on the market for the price I would be prepared to sell it for lets say £200k for instance ,it would not be representative of its true value at £100k.
Lots of speculative prices out there at the moment so whilst the data kind of shows a trend its also kind of flawed.
Realise you cant get hold of actual transaction prices so I'm not being critical just pointing out there are statistics, more statistics and damned lies.
You are indeed correct - rather than simply top and tailing I would prefer to use something like Chauvenet to identify and remove outliers.There are 4 cars in there at £150k + that bring up the mean average considerably and are low mileage manual cars that are not representative of the others for sale.
If I was to put my F355 manual on the market for the price I would be prepared to sell it for lets say £200k for instance ,it would not be representative of its true value at £100k.
Lots of speculative prices out there at the moment so whilst the data kind of shows a trend its also kind of flawed.
Realise you cant get hold of actual transaction prices so I'm not being critical just pointing out there are statistics, more statistics and damned lies.
However, if I moved to a different methodology then it really wouldn't be backwards comparable. When I first started the market was a very different place.
More importantly changes mean development which means time, something I have very little of right now. In fact I am considering choosing an end date for stopping both market watch series completely...
Thank you for the kind words.
Scraping the data is easy - my server does it automatically on the first of each month. What takes time is cleaning the data up. So removing all the wanted adverts, Scuds, etc. I have a semi-automated routine for this so that's reasonably easy. The real ball ache is verifying that manual cars are listed properly - this involves opening the advert and eyeballing the pictures. Producing the charts is automated and the commentary is knocked up from what I've seen/heard during the month.
As some of you will be aware, I've had a fairly major career change in the last year. I used to ride a desk in a bank in a fairly comfortable senior management position. This afforded plenty of time for browsing PH and working on personal projects. I'm now working non stop trying to establish a business - add in a young family and I really don't have much time at all.
If I do decide to stop I will give you all plenty of notice!
As it happens, I scrape data for all Ferrari, Maserati, Lambo and McLaren adverts so if someone wanted the raw data to do a one off analysis I should be able to help.
I would love to have a rich and reliable data source of sold prices but the fact is it just doesn't exist. Advertised prices are a fairly good proxy for transaction prices and I do try to keep a handle on the discount that is achievable. Right now 5-7% is about right for a good F430 F1 that is stock (ie: not SoR).
Scraping the data is easy - my server does it automatically on the first of each month. What takes time is cleaning the data up. So removing all the wanted adverts, Scuds, etc. I have a semi-automated routine for this so that's reasonably easy. The real ball ache is verifying that manual cars are listed properly - this involves opening the advert and eyeballing the pictures. Producing the charts is automated and the commentary is knocked up from what I've seen/heard during the month.
As some of you will be aware, I've had a fairly major career change in the last year. I used to ride a desk in a bank in a fairly comfortable senior management position. This afforded plenty of time for browsing PH and working on personal projects. I'm now working non stop trying to establish a business - add in a young family and I really don't have much time at all.
If I do decide to stop I will give you all plenty of notice!
As it happens, I scrape data for all Ferrari, Maserati, Lambo and McLaren adverts so if someone wanted the raw data to do a one off analysis I should be able to help.
simonr100 said:
It comes as no surprise that the market watch will stop in a falling market........it would only encourage more sales and prices to fall further and faster....
It's been interesting reading, I would have loved to have seen average sale prices rather than advertised prices as they hide a lot.
I just wanted to reply to this post personally. The fact that the market is falling has nothing to do with my thoughts of stopping.It's been interesting reading, I would have loved to have seen average sale prices rather than advertised prices as they hide a lot.
I would love to have a rich and reliable data source of sold prices but the fact is it just doesn't exist. Advertised prices are a fairly good proxy for transaction prices and I do try to keep a handle on the discount that is achievable. Right now 5-7% is about right for a good F430 F1 that is stock (ie: not SoR).
simonr100 said:
That's interesting and thanks for taking the time to reply and for providing all the data in the first place.
How do you think the 5-7% you mention above compares to last year? Personally I think it was less and is being masked by advertised prices only.
I am hoping to add a Ferrari to my garage next year, I was thinking of buying this year(430 spider or a 599) but the inflated market worried me and I bought a 12c spider instead to add to my Aston. If I am lucky F12's will be falling more.
Last year there was little to no opportunity to negotiate a discount. You made a good call buying a 12C - if I was shopping for a used supercar it's where my money would be.How do you think the 5-7% you mention above compares to last year? Personally I think it was less and is being masked by advertised prices only.
I am hoping to add a Ferrari to my garage next year, I was thinking of buying this year(430 spider or a 599) but the inflated market worried me and I bought a 12c spider instead to add to my Aston. If I am lucky F12's will be falling more.
100 IAN said:
Jules360 said:
Looks like the one at £175k is sold.
Graypaul Edinburgh had one advertised for £140k but now sold, probably won't show on Voicey's data as I think he scrapes info on 1st of each month and probably missed it(?) Happy new year! For the latest on 360 prices, including news of a surprise uptick, had over here.
Average F430 prices have risen again and are now at their highest since my records began. This rise has been caused by cars being added right at the top of the market. With the rest of the market broadly unchanged, the average has moved up.
Manual cars have now become completely detached from their F1 counterparts and have a market all of their own. This isn't just in terms of their pricing but also the activity which is much more elevated. I need to set aside some time at some point to create two sub indices which I'll probably go back a year so we have something to digest.
Average F430 prices have risen again and are now at their highest since my records began. This rise has been caused by cars being added right at the top of the market. With the rest of the market broadly unchanged, the average has moved up.
Manual cars have now become completely detached from their F1 counterparts and have a market all of their own. This isn't just in terms of their pricing but also the activity which is much more elevated. I need to set aside some time at some point to create two sub indices which I'll probably go back a year so we have something to digest.
I can't believe another month has passed. January was supposed to be a quiet month for me yet I've been pretty much flat out. However now I'm back working on my own so can allocate time to things a little better, including getting these updates out in a timely fashion.
For the latest in 360 prices please head over here.
If you haven't already checked it out, have a look at this thread. It seems that someone has used the principle of my little updates and re-fashioned it into a much more professional looking affair. This is great for me as I had thoughts of packing it in anyway - with an alternative source of numbers I won't feel so bad if I do decide to call it a day.
In general the supercar market remains fairly quiet however there are transactions going through, providing the price and the car is right. Tim Walker sold three 348s in a week but he deals in the very best cars at realistic prices. Good manual 430s are being sold so long as they aren't mental money and a client of mine even got gazumped on a big ticket purchase a few days ago so there are reasons to be optimistic. However the unrealistic vendors are likely to remain stuck with their stock.
430 asking prices have grown again, another 1% over the last month. The index is now at 130.99. This ha sbeen driven by a few of the cheaper cars dropping out of the data.
For the latest in 360 prices please head over here.
If you haven't already checked it out, have a look at this thread. It seems that someone has used the principle of my little updates and re-fashioned it into a much more professional looking affair. This is great for me as I had thoughts of packing it in anyway - with an alternative source of numbers I won't feel so bad if I do decide to call it a day.
In general the supercar market remains fairly quiet however there are transactions going through, providing the price and the car is right. Tim Walker sold three 348s in a week but he deals in the very best cars at realistic prices. Good manual 430s are being sold so long as they aren't mental money and a client of mine even got gazumped on a big ticket purchase a few days ago so there are reasons to be optimistic. However the unrealistic vendors are likely to remain stuck with their stock.
430 asking prices have grown again, another 1% over the last month. The index is now at 130.99. This ha sbeen driven by a few of the cheaper cars dropping out of the data.
For the latest on 360 prices please head over here (please note that, despite it being in breach of the new posting rules, I have specific approval to link back to my website on this thread).
Average F430 asking prices have come off a little, down 0.75% over the last month leaving the price index at 130.01.
Market conditions remain tough for vendors unless they are selling a manual, in which case the buyers are out there. It's not really applicable to the F430 market, but bottom end crap is really bid up at the moment with people prepared to pay a premium for a perceived bargain. The papers seem to think that Article 50 will be triggered in the next few weeks - this is a good thing in that we move closer to ending the current shroud of uncertainty that is hanging over UK markets.
Two things have cheered me up over the last few days, firstly the weather is much improved (which should bring a few buyers out of the woodwork). I also noticed that I bought my own F430 in Nov 2013 - right at the low point on the chart which gives me a theoretical 35% gain. Much better than most of the dogs that make up my share portfolio...
Average F430 asking prices have come off a little, down 0.75% over the last month leaving the price index at 130.01.
Market conditions remain tough for vendors unless they are selling a manual, in which case the buyers are out there. It's not really applicable to the F430 market, but bottom end crap is really bid up at the moment with people prepared to pay a premium for a perceived bargain. The papers seem to think that Article 50 will be triggered in the next few weeks - this is a good thing in that we move closer to ending the current shroud of uncertainty that is hanging over UK markets.
Two things have cheered me up over the last few days, firstly the weather is much improved (which should bring a few buyers out of the woodwork). I also noticed that I bought my own F430 in Nov 2013 - right at the low point on the chart which gives me a theoretical 35% gain. Much better than most of the dogs that make up my share portfolio...
Edited by voicey on Thursday 2nd March 13:54
PabloF said:
Voicey, many thanks for another month's update. It is very much appreciated, especially as I'm looking at taking the plunge on a 430 (F1 coupe, can't stretch to a manual). It doesn't look like the graphs/images have been updated for this month; they appear to be the same URLs as Feb (and no March 2017 dip on the end of the first graph).
Any thoughts by anyone on the likelihood of continued price increases for the F1 model would be welcomed, as I'm a slightly nervous first-time buyer for this level of machinery. Apologies if this is the wrong place for such a question.
Paul
Images have been fixed - thanks for pointing it out.Any thoughts by anyone on the likelihood of continued price increases for the F1 model would be welcomed, as I'm a slightly nervous first-time buyer for this level of machinery. Apologies if this is the wrong place for such a question.
Paul
You are correct to split the F1 and manual models - they are totally separate markets now. One way of predicting the future is to look at how previous generations of mid engine V8s have performed.
However I would prefer to frame any future price rises in the context of the overall conditions in the UK. The performance of any (non-collectible) RHD Ferrari is inextricably linked to how our economy is doing. And we won't know how that's going to go until the current uncertainty over Brexit is resolved. I guess buying any kind of "investment" type car is a punt on the UK economy, albeit that a Ferrari has some sort of intrinsic value which should limit the downside.
Another way of looking at the F430 is that it is the last V8 Ferrari with an automated dry clutch. Although the double wet clutch systems are faster and smoother, nothing compares to the punch in the back when changing gears at 8,500 rpm with your right foot to the floor...
Gassing Station | Supercar General | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff