F430 Market Watch

[red_slr]

Yipper said:

There really is no issue.

+1. Seems a shame to stop now Mr V.

[tyrrell]

No don’t stop, it’s always a good read, invaluable information nothing like it out there

[RamboLambo]

Its interesting data and shows a trend but ONLY of ASKING PRICES

Whilst asking prices may have gone up that's not to say that actual selling prices have come down dramatically.
If asking prices have come down then selling prices may have come down pro rata but there is no intrinsic link between the 2.
Dealer stock holding periods have significantly risen and to offset this so has their margin. I've never known such a big gap between retail and trade on say for example a £150k Ferrari

If you want REAL data it has to be sold auction prices and that's still only a guide.

What voicey does is good and appreciated but it not exact science. Go in with your eyes open and negotiate hard,

[jtremlett]

RamboLambo said:

...If you want REAL data it has to be sold auction prices and that's still only a guide...

Yes, except that sold auction prices tell you almost nothing for F430s because so few are sold at auction and those that are tend to go to auction for a reason.

The Surveyor said:

This may have been covered before, all this excellent data looks to be based on asking prices rather than actual sale prices. If this data is to relevant to the real-world, should there not also be a column showing 'sold' prices (from auctions and dealers alike) which is more reflective of what people are prepared to pay...

Obviously it would be better to be tracking all actual sold prices but they aren't available so be grateful for what there is, don't bother reading this thread or go off and find a way to get sold prices and then you can post up the results. Note too that the more sources you try to get data from the more work you create in trying to merge, clean and sort the data. Then consider why anyone should bother doing that for free.

Jonathan

[The Surveyor]

Yipper said:

That sounds cool and macho. But it's not really bringing anything new to the table.

Asking price is a widely recognized car-industry metric, and has been since the 19th century.

Glass's Guide has made millions from tracking car asking prices as a viable UK business for decades.

Everyone knows the difference between the asking price and selling price. It is schoolboy GCSE Economics.

The OP is 100% clear and open that his numbers track and scrape the asking price from known sources. And the numbers are free of charge. There really is no issue.

The suggestion to add a measure of sale prices to the existing data is not intended to be 'cool and macho', it was intended as a suggestion to enhance the data, that's all.

I'm coming at this as a comparable to the property sector, where 'sold' prices are readily available and are used as a much more accurate measure of the state of the housing market. The difference between the asking price and the sale price being a significant measure of the buoyancy of the market. Other than the published auction results, I agree that 'Sold' prices are harder to get for the motor trade, so it would indeed rely on some good will from the main traders.

Anyway Mr Yipper, as the difference between asking price and sale price is schoolboy GCSE Economics, what is it at present? I certainly don't know. Are the 137 Ferrari F430's listed in the PH classified likely to sell for the asking price, or are buyers able to negotiate a 0.5%, 1%, 2% 10% or greater discount?

[The Surveyor]

jtremlett said:

bviously it would be better to be tracking all actual sold prices but they aren't available so be grateful for what there is, don't bother reading this thread or go off and find a way to get sold prices and then you can post up the results. Note too that the more sources you try to get data from the more work you create in trying to merge, clean and sort the data. Then consider why anyone should bother doing that for free.

Keep your toys in the pram fella, the fact that so many people read this thread including me is testament of the value of the data that's provided, it is very much appreciated. The suggestion to try and factor in actual sale prices was just that, a simple suggestion.

[tyrrell]

Well under UK data protection rules, you have not a cat in hells chance of getting sold figures

[The Surveyor]

tyrrell said:

Well under UK data protection rules, you have not a cat in hells chance of getting sold figures

Data protection would only come into it if you had actual figures for actual sales to named individuals, the auctions don't have any difficulties publishing the figures, but as already pointed out the auction results don't show the full picture of the market values. Partly because they only show one element of the market, and partly because they are never presented in as much detail as the OP does.

The OP adds some anecdotal information about market activity at the head of his updates, excellent first-hand data that isn't currently factored into the 'growth' statistics, even in the form of a 'weighting' based upon their knowledge of the market activity.

[ferrisbueller]

The Surveyor said:

The suggestion to try and factor in actual sale prices was just that, a simple suggestion.

Excellent. Given it's that simple you can compile it and add it in to this thread for comparison to the Voicey data the rest of us use.

Thanks.

[baypond]

Firstly, correlation between buying and selling price means that the analysis is very useful. Yes there is a lag in a falling market, but lets face it, Voicey's charts plus a little bit of attention from anyone looking, and you have as much as you need to know about the state of the market as you will ever need.
Probably one of the easiest improvements to the number, would be to weight the asking prices for time advertised. But it would still be distorted due to sellers re-listing at the same price to bring adverts back to 'most recent'.
Also, and in respect to Voicey, the time involved would be even more onerous.

[Mulsanne-Speed]

Personally, I think rather than making Voicey feel pressured to continue, we should thank him for his work to date and suggest he uses his spare time to rest with friends and family...... All good things must come to an end.

Edited by Mulsanne-Speed on Friday 1st December 21:10

[The Surveyor]

ferrisbueller said:

The Surveyor said:

The suggestion to try and factor in actual sale prices was just that, a simple suggestion.

Excellent. Given it's that simple you can compile it and add it in to this thread for comparison to the Voicey data the rest of us use.

Thanks.

'Simple suggestion' I said, I know very well how hard that data would be for a non-trade pleb like me to collate however for somebody like Voicey who is in the trade, it would be easier to factor into a weighting his real-world experience of actual deals.

He opened his detailed assessment with the comment "Things are still pretty tough out there and for the 430 in particular, we are seeing very little buying interest. We have done a few 360 deals, all of which were off-market private treaty transactions (including a 360 that was sold to a youtuber). We also have clients that have cash to spend and are looking to drive deep discounts from distressed vendors.".

It's seeing if there is a way to factor that into the 0.44% growth that the 'asking price' figures indicate. That was the simple suggestion.

[jaisharma]

The way I see it this is free info which is far more detailed than is available for many if not all cars. We should appreciate the work and the sharing of it.
If more can be done all well and good but it is open to others to do that

[Not Ideal]

jaisharma said:

The way I see it this is free info which is far more detailed than is available for many if not all cars. We should appreciate the work and the sharing of it.
If more can be done all well and good but it is open to others to do that

+1

[voicey]

I have decided that this will be my last update on this thread. I will certainly continue to scrape the underlying data and will ponder if I'm going to publish anything going forward - however if I do it will be on my own site.

It's been over four years since I started this thread and how things have changed. During that time period the collectable car market has gone nuts and now looks like it has started to cool off. The 360 market was up a mind boggling 75% at one point but F430s only saw a 30% rise (the more modest rise is balanced by the fact that they were still depreciating before the market took off).

The big thing that has changed for the F430 is the desirability of the manual gearbox. Four years ago the F1 'box was the favoured choice and manuals traded at a decent discount. Fast forward to today and a manual car is trading at a £40-50k premium. Obviously the rarity of manuals is a big driving factor but the F1 has also lost a lot of love when compared to modern wet clutches.

I thought it might be a bit of fun to call out my top three F430 purchases that I've made over the years...

In third place would be the Nero/Crema F1 Coupe I bought for a client earlier this year for £82k. It had a genuine 12k miles and was wearing its original paint.

Second place would go to the MY08 Nero/Nero F1 Coupe bought for a client in autumn 2015 for £70k. Mid 20k miles (genuine) and fully optioned including race seats.

First place has to go to my own Grigio Silverstone/Nero F1 Coupe that I bought for a mere £55k in November 2013. Genuine 26k miles and original paint (full of stone chips now). It was previously owned on finance and the trade bids were below the outstanding amount (my purchase price being a little over trade so the finance could be settled).

I should also call out the exceedingly astute purchase by a fellow PHr (and subsequent client) of a Red/Tan Manual Spider bought for F1 money right before the whole manual thing went nuts and prices added 50%.

Final note before pasting the data is to say that there is a F430 going through Coys tomorrow so whoever is going to do the bigger and better market watch based on actual sale prices can start there....

[Nano2nd]

thanks Aldous, its been an interesting read over the last few years(thanks for all the effort), I too luckily bought a manual 430 before the manual craze took off, i've literally just sold it... i did miss the top of the market which was early 2016, but still made a decent profit. Be interesting to watch what happens to the market over the next few years, knowing my luck it'll sky rocket and i'll be kicking myself!

[red_slr]

Thanks AV.

[MDL111]

Thanks for posting all of this on here over the years - I was never in the market for one, so it just made interesting reading for me, but still enjoyed it nonetheless

[markst]

just to say thanks for all the hard work and effort over the years - well done .

This thread has shown the highs and lows of the 430 market, and bearing in mind I sold my manual in 2016 near the top I'm delighted. But also disappointed at the same time. Mind you if they ever bought out a new manual .......

The 430 is a wonderful car and I have loved both of mine, and watching values go up and down has been a highlight , and typical buyer behaviour.

hopefully we will continue to see the data on your website,

thanks once again

[RamboLambo]

Yeah Good point Porsche reinstated the manual so if Ferrari did F430 manual prices would be severely effected