Not much seems to selling right now?
Discussion
joshcowin said:
Why brexit? Do you think leaving the EU has hurt our used car market?
We still had a massive financial downturn in 2008, we were in the EU then with no idea we were leaving, the super car market bubble popped then, do you not think that excessive lending is the root of this as opposed to some political shambles?
FYI heard this week that there are currently 1000's of excess Mercedes being stored at docks around the country, maybe even manufacturers finance is harder to obtain now on new cars?
It was a slightly tongue in cheek comment but indirectly yes.We still had a massive financial downturn in 2008, we were in the EU then with no idea we were leaving, the super car market bubble popped then, do you not think that excessive lending is the root of this as opposed to some political shambles?
FYI heard this week that there are currently 1000's of excess Mercedes being stored at docks around the country, maybe even manufacturers finance is harder to obtain now on new cars?
However as you allude to it's not the only influence but when things start going economically pear shaped, the less economical crap you have to deal with the better.
Brexit's been a negative influence that could've been avoided, fingers crossed the current car crash of an exit process improves and it all works out for the better in the end.
Anyone lend me £900?
Edited by PompeyReece on Wednesday 23 May 08:53
joshcowin said:
FYI heard this week that there are currently 1000's of excess Mercedes being stored at docks around the country, maybe even manufacturers finance is harder to obtain now on new cars?
This could also be due to the manufacturers being completely focused on diesel for the last few years. The new MOT regulations that came in this week are a very clever way to effectively push diesels off the road altogether and I'm sure Merc, BMW and others have thousands of unwanted diesel cars piled up.
As someone who is thinking of getting into supercar ownership in the next year or two I've found this thread interesting, but there is a lot of conjecture and opinion with little in the way of hard facts. I thought it might be nice to bring some data to the party.
I noticed that the autotrader website gives each advert a unique ID in the form "201805236787769". You'll notice that the first 8 digits there look suspiciously like a date in the form YYYYMMDD: "20180523".
It's not a large leap of logic that this is the date that the advert was created. A few spot checks shows that this does appear to be the case. So what that gives us is a database of thousands of cars for sale along with data on how long they have been on offer. A little bit of scripting and it's possible to scrape the results page for key details on every car on the website returned by a search. (it's probably possible to do the same with PH classifieds, but the page structure is more complicated).
So what can we learn from this? Well the most obvious metric here is the time that the cars have been on offer, specifically the mean time, median (the point where half the adverts are older than a given age), and the 80th percentile (where 20 percent of the adverts are over a given age)
Ferrari:
Mean age: 114 days
Median age: 64 days
80th percentile: 182 days
Lambo:
Mean age: 155
Median age: 70
80th percentile: 231
McLaren:
Mean age: 86
Median age: 55
80th percentile: 131
So half of the Ferraris for sale on AutoTrader have been there for more than 2 months, and 20% have been there for more than 6 months. Lambos fare slightly worse, 20% of them have been on sale for more than 7 and a half months. Interestingly McLarens have, on average, newer adverts than either of the Italians, suggesting a faster moving market.
What doesn't this tell us?
Well it doesn't tell us about cars that did sell. If a Ferrari went online last week and sold in 2 days it won't show up here, so there could be Ferraris changing hands all the time with just a stubborn few that don't sell. However now I have the script it might be interesting to build up a database showing changes over time so I can track adverts as they appear and disappear. Then I can view historical data including cars that no longer appear in searches. I can also track changes in asking price, to see if cars which are hanging around are seeing price drops.
What else can we learn? How unusual are these levels? What does it mean for the market?
Well that's hard to answer without historical data; information like this without context is of limited value. What will be interesting is if these numbers start going up over time, which is something I'd like to watch.
One thing we can do is compare with other brands. I picked two sub-supercar brands that are often a stepping stone to supercar ownership; Aston Martin and Porsche, with the porsche search limited to 911 models. I also threw in BMW as a comparison with a more everyday premium brand.
Porsche 911:
Mean age: 88
Median age: 48
80th percentile: 139
Aston:
Mean age: 90
Median age: 56
80th percentile: 161
BMW:
Mean age: 49
Median age: 33
80th percentile: 69
The gap between these brands and the supercars was smaller than I expected, especially the mean age of the BMW adverts. What that tells us is that the numbers for the supercar marques are probably not sky high.
One conclusion we can draw is that the market is, relatively speaking, not flooded with supercars that have been on sale for a huge amount of time. I'd expect a supercar to take a couple of months to sell, so a median age of 60 ish days doesn't strike me as very long.
I noticed that the autotrader website gives each advert a unique ID in the form "201805236787769". You'll notice that the first 8 digits there look suspiciously like a date in the form YYYYMMDD: "20180523".
It's not a large leap of logic that this is the date that the advert was created. A few spot checks shows that this does appear to be the case. So what that gives us is a database of thousands of cars for sale along with data on how long they have been on offer. A little bit of scripting and it's possible to scrape the results page for key details on every car on the website returned by a search. (it's probably possible to do the same with PH classifieds, but the page structure is more complicated).
So what can we learn from this? Well the most obvious metric here is the time that the cars have been on offer, specifically the mean time, median (the point where half the adverts are older than a given age), and the 80th percentile (where 20 percent of the adverts are over a given age)
Ferrari:
Mean age: 114 days
Median age: 64 days
80th percentile: 182 days
Lambo:
Mean age: 155
Median age: 70
80th percentile: 231
McLaren:
Mean age: 86
Median age: 55
80th percentile: 131
So half of the Ferraris for sale on AutoTrader have been there for more than 2 months, and 20% have been there for more than 6 months. Lambos fare slightly worse, 20% of them have been on sale for more than 7 and a half months. Interestingly McLarens have, on average, newer adverts than either of the Italians, suggesting a faster moving market.
What doesn't this tell us?
Well it doesn't tell us about cars that did sell. If a Ferrari went online last week and sold in 2 days it won't show up here, so there could be Ferraris changing hands all the time with just a stubborn few that don't sell. However now I have the script it might be interesting to build up a database showing changes over time so I can track adverts as they appear and disappear. Then I can view historical data including cars that no longer appear in searches. I can also track changes in asking price, to see if cars which are hanging around are seeing price drops.
What else can we learn? How unusual are these levels? What does it mean for the market?
Well that's hard to answer without historical data; information like this without context is of limited value. What will be interesting is if these numbers start going up over time, which is something I'd like to watch.
One thing we can do is compare with other brands. I picked two sub-supercar brands that are often a stepping stone to supercar ownership; Aston Martin and Porsche, with the porsche search limited to 911 models. I also threw in BMW as a comparison with a more everyday premium brand.
Porsche 911:
Mean age: 88
Median age: 48
80th percentile: 139
Aston:
Mean age: 90
Median age: 56
80th percentile: 161
BMW:
Mean age: 49
Median age: 33
80th percentile: 69
The gap between these brands and the supercars was smaller than I expected, especially the mean age of the BMW adverts. What that tells us is that the numbers for the supercar marques are probably not sky high.
One conclusion we can draw is that the market is, relatively speaking, not flooded with supercars that have been on sale for a huge amount of time. I'd expect a supercar to take a couple of months to sell, so a median age of 60 ish days doesn't strike me as very long.
Wow, that's the some really good investigative work there!
Do your calculations accommodate cars being listed, sold but then the advert remaining online for some time after the car is sold to gauge interest should the sale fall through?
Would certainly like to see some stats on Audi R8s!
Do your calculations accommodate cars being listed, sold but then the advert remaining online for some time after the car is sold to gauge interest should the sale fall through?
Would certainly like to see some stats on Audi R8s!
PompeyReece said:
Wow, that's the some really good investigative work there!
Do your calculations accommodate cars being listed, sold but then the advert remaining online for some time after the car is sold to gauge interest should the sale fall through?
Would certainly like to see some stats on Audi R8s!
Unfortunately the only sign of a sale is when an advert stops appearing in a listing, so no way to tell if a car is left online despite being sold, which certain dealers are much worse for than others. Likewise it's impossible to tell the difference between a sale and a car simply being withdrawn because the owner gives up.Do your calculations accommodate cars being listed, sold but then the advert remaining online for some time after the car is sold to gauge interest should the sale fall through?
Would certainly like to see some stats on Audi R8s!
That's why changes in the data over time will be more interesting than the raw results.
I can certainly run it for the R8 when I get a chance.
murphyaj said:
As someone who is thinking of getting into supercar ownership in the next year or two I've found this thread interesting, but there is a lot of conjecture and opinion with little in the way of hard facts. I thought it might be nice to bring some data to the party.
Thanks for using median. You clearly understand why they are the better average for this sort of data, unlike most on this forum. 
I doubt your calculations take into account the number of Ferrari's sat in dealers compounds for sale but not allowed to be advertised by the manufacturer who is very precious over its brand
Ferrari very cleverly control the dealers used car advertising so as to not adversely effect residuals.
Something that McLaren need to address is how they also support residuals but at todays prices its no surprise to me that they are shifting a lot quicker than their competitors and will continue to do so as demand increases further.
Ferrari very cleverly control the dealers used car advertising so as to not adversely effect residuals.
Something that McLaren need to address is how they also support residuals but at todays prices its no surprise to me that they are shifting a lot quicker than their competitors and will continue to do so as demand increases further.
monthefish said:
Normally that's about right - a recession follows boom (often in a 10 year cycle) - however we've not had the boom yet; The economy is only recently starting to recover since 2007 so there is no 'correction' due...
Not had the boom yet?! What word would you use to describe what has happened to prices over the last few years? If you’re talking about the economy as a whole rather than car prices then maybe it it hasn’t felt like a boom in terms of GDP but we actually recovered to pre GFC levels in 2013 and it has been continued growth ever since.
Throw in 450bn of QE, (UK level only - globally it’s trillions) and super cheap borrowing rates on top of synchronised global GDP growth and you have your boom and you can see it in just about every asset class over the last 10 years.
These ‘emergency’ economic measures are not going to last forever. The patient isn’t sick anymore. The drugs are going to be withdrawn and there will be side effects...
For what it’s worth, but mainly so I can use this as a (potential) ‘I told you so’ moment in years to come, I think the sale of the $500m slightly iffy Da Vinci last November will mark the high water line of this particular boom. I know it doesn’t seem to relate to cars but (almost) all asset prices have massively inflated over the last 10 years and, believe me, cars are not a special case.
RamboLambo said:
I doubt your calculations take into account the number of Ferrari's sat in dealers compounds for sale but not allowed to be advertised by the manufacturer who is very precious over its brand
You are absolutely right, the figures don't account for that, or for other mitigating factors that I have doubtless failed to think of. It was intended as an interesting snapshot, not something any firm conclusions should be drawn from.The more interesting result will come from watching trends over time. Factors like dealers leaving cars up after they are sold, or Ferrari preventing cars from being advertised, will remain unknowns, however I can still see the rate at which new cars are coming online or coming off, how many cars are seeing price drops, and how long it takes for a car to disappear. As these numbers change over time it will indicate whether the market is heating up or cooling down.
To be honest this is probably 20% me wanting to watch the supercar market and 80% just an interesting data science and web scraping problem task. I'm firmly in the camp of buying a car to enjoy, not to speculate on, but I'd still rather not buy just before a crash.
murphyaj said:
...
Nice bit of investigation work. Its good old analysis that goes to help threads like this.However Autotrader would provide only a slice of the picture of the market.
Word of mouth, from buyers and dealers, if you can chop through the sensationalist aspects of each, can provide a realistic image of what things are like.
And then if it existed, the collection and analysis of individual car dealer sales data would give the full picture.
I'm looking to sell my 12C in a month or so, so I'm keeping a close eye on the market not only for the sale but also what I will be buying next - still very much undecided. Will be waiting for the market to show a 'direction' as I believe current prices are unsustainable. So I'll be playing the 'be patient' game.
DeuceDeuce said:
Not had the boom yet?! What word would you use to describe what has happened to prices over the last few years?
If you’re talking about the economy as a whole rather than car prices then maybe it it hasn’t felt like a boom in terms of GDP but we actually recovered to pre GFC levels in 2013 and it has been continued growth ever since.
Throw in 450bn of QE, (UK level only - globally it’s trillions) and super cheap borrowing rates on top of synchronised global GDP growth and you have your boom and you can see it in just about every asset class over the last 10 years.
These ‘emergency’ economic measures are not going to last forever. The patient isn’t sick anymore. The drugs are going to be withdrawn and there will be side effects...
For what it’s worth, but mainly so I can use this as a (potential) ‘I told you so’ moment in years to come, I think the sale of the $500m slightly iffy Da Vinci last November will mark the high water line of this particular boom. I know it doesn’t seem to relate to cars but (almost) all asset prices have massively inflated over the last 10 years and, believe me, cars are not a special case.
Was watching Trump's bumbling economic advisor Larry Kudlow speak the other day. Reminded me a bit of Del Boy selling those massagers in Peckham market. Just trying a bit too hard and not very coherent.If you’re talking about the economy as a whole rather than car prices then maybe it it hasn’t felt like a boom in terms of GDP but we actually recovered to pre GFC levels in 2013 and it has been continued growth ever since.
Throw in 450bn of QE, (UK level only - globally it’s trillions) and super cheap borrowing rates on top of synchronised global GDP growth and you have your boom and you can see it in just about every asset class over the last 10 years.
These ‘emergency’ economic measures are not going to last forever. The patient isn’t sick anymore. The drugs are going to be withdrawn and there will be side effects...
For what it’s worth, but mainly so I can use this as a (potential) ‘I told you so’ moment in years to come, I think the sale of the $500m slightly iffy Da Vinci last November will mark the high water line of this particular boom. I know it doesn’t seem to relate to cars but (almost) all asset prices have massively inflated over the last 10 years and, believe me, cars are not a special case.
If this kind of clearly confused, double talking guy is the man the future of western economies depends on then we are all screwed..China must be loving it though.
Edited by cgt2 on Thursday 24th May 10:24
murphyaj said:
As someone who is thinking of getting into supercar ownership in the next year or two I've found this thread interesting, but there is a lot of conjecture and opinion with little in the way of hard facts. I thought it might be nice to bring some data to the party.
Nice work !Interesting stuff, and the manufacturers are largely to blame for high volumes of "mass-market" models during the boom of easy / cheap credit. Some of the new buyers couldn't properly maintain the cars so unsurprisingly quite a few dogs floating around.
Even more useful would be a Sold price list similar to the 928 one below.
Each car has the right buyer out there somewhere, and patience remains a virtue
http://porsche928prices.simplesite.com/
Even more useful would be a Sold price list similar to the 928 one below.
Each car has the right buyer out there somewhere, and patience remains a virtue
http://porsche928prices.simplesite.com/
sparta6 said:
Interesting stuff, and the manufacturers are largely to blame for high volumes of "mass-market" models during the boom of easy / cheap credit. Some of the new buyers couldn't properly maintain the cars so unsurprisingly quite a few dogs floating around.
Even more useful would be a Sold price list similar to the 928 one below.
Each car has the right buyer out there somewhere, and patience remains a virtue
http://porsche928prices.simplesite.com/
928's seem to have stagnated of late along with Pagoda Mercs. There is an American site that gives you an idea where the market is. The silly Ford prices on mundane models seems to have cooled recently too.Even more useful would be a Sold price list similar to the 928 one below.
Each car has the right buyer out there somewhere, and patience remains a virtue
http://porsche928prices.simplesite.com/
Raygun said:
928's seem to have stagnated of late along with Pagoda Mercs. There is an American site that gives you an idea where the market is. The silly Ford prices on mundane models seems to have cooled recently too.
Yes everything seems to have calmed down lately. The great unknown of Brexit is causing some hesitation.But at least with classic cars they can be driven while we wait, generating splendid experiences and shared memories, not just hanging on a wall
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