Not much seems to selling right now?
Discussion
RamboLambo said:
We are all dooooooomed !
I'm more concerned with how many years I have left when I can get in and out of low sportscars/supercars with bucket seats given I'm 48 in 2 weeks. It's the first time '50' has entered my head and the first time I've looked backwards and thought, "s
t, I was 21 a moment ago".I'm off for a drive before it's too late.
larrylamb11 said:
The US is actively stoking inflation (trade war anyone?), possibly intentionally, as they need to try and inflate their way out of the insurmountable debt mountain they are drowning under. In real terms inflation devalues assets whose prices remain stagnant.
Very interesting that the much-touted tax reform is projected to create a 1 Trillion level of annual debt by 2020 which is very scary indeed for the global economy. Having a thrice bankrupt guy who only played a businessman on a reality TV show and appears to be drowning in corruption does not give much confidence for the future..Edited by cgt2 on Thursday 12th April 18:37
Edited by cgt2 on Thursday 12th April 18:37
mike01606 said:
Am I the only one who actually wants this ^^^ to materialise?
As a mere financial mortal who loves cars and other similar things (avoiding the word asset), it gives me the opportunity to trade onwards and upwards that has been unavailable for the last 3-4 years. I'd like a 550/599 but can't pay £140k for one so I'm sat looking at good ones (550's) sat at £90k, hoping they will be £50k soon, even if that means my starship mileage 360 will only be worth £2.50. I intend to die with something in the garage so what does it matter what it's worth.
As said earlier, time is the only precious thing....
I've had three 550's and a manual 575 and never paid more than £40k for any of them at varying times over the past 20 years and the 575 was only five years old when I bought it. For many years people were very put off by the comparative running costs to a V8 and they were cheap as a result.As a mere financial mortal who loves cars and other similar things (avoiding the word asset), it gives me the opportunity to trade onwards and upwards that has been unavailable for the last 3-4 years. I'd like a 550/599 but can't pay £140k for one so I'm sat looking at good ones (550's) sat at £90k, hoping they will be £50k soon, even if that means my starship mileage 360 will only be worth £2.50. I intend to die with something in the garage so what does it matter what it's worth.
As said earlier, time is the only precious thing....
Well I'm deliberately flying in the face of this thread having picked up this little beauty today.
Not really the ideal day for it given that its mainly pissed it down but the car had been a total joy to drive non the less.
Quite a novelty in this running in phase using the prodigious torque to make a lowish rpm tall gear overtakes rather than the blip it down rev it out nature of my Boxster GTS.
Whilst I'm being controversial I even like the noises it makes!
Not really the ideal day for it given that its mainly pissed it down but the car had been a total joy to drive non the less.
Quite a novelty in this running in phase using the prodigious torque to make a lowish rpm tall gear overtakes rather than the blip it down rev it out nature of my Boxster GTS.
Whilst I'm being controversial I even like the noises it makes!
Larry I think we share the same view!
"there are a lot of people walking around blind without a cane "
"there are a lot of people walking around blind without a cane "
larrylamb11 said:
Cars are the same as any other asset class. Prices are driven by the fundamental forces of supply and demand. They are subject to the same vagaries of supply and demand as influence stocks, bonds, property, commodities, wine, whiskey, art, watches, bitcoin etc. or even tulips! The pricing is driven by how people feel - sentiment - and governed by human psychology. Humans have been making the same mistakes in speculative investing for centuries and will continue to make those mistakes for centuries to come - it's hard wired and repeats time after time after time. We never learn as a species partly because we can't evolve fast enough and partly because that same thinking is actually remarkably good at keeping us continually looking forward and expanding as the dominant species.
This is relevant because these repeated behaviours produce recognisable patterns which allows us to forecast what is most probable to happen next. You may not think values are going to crash, but history (driven by human behaviour) point to that being most probable. It may not be now, but it is likely to occur and, again, human nature generally underestimates both how long it takes for these events to unfold and how far pricing will correct. The chance of a return to '80s or '90s values in real terms is far higher than you would expect.
This doesn't just apply to cars, but to every asset class. Nobody trading Brent crude at $140 per barrel in '08 could have imagined it would be trading at $34 before the year was out. Likewise Deutsche Bank shares from 160 to 25. These significant corrections are everywhere in every asset class - cars included - and always have been. We can be certain that they will occur again in the future.
Presently, the evidence points to a correction in classic pricing having already begun - we're well beyond the 'Stealth Phase', certainly past the 'Awareness Phase' and probably through the 'Mania Phase'. We aren't seeing the 'New Paradigm' record prices that were being set last year at auction and there is plenty of denial around evidenced by vehicles failing to sell quickly, as they would in the 'greed' and 'delusion' phases. Consequently we are most likely to be in the 'Blow off Phase' and can expect pricing to behave accordingly.
By the way, assuming that low interest rates will be the saviour of the sector is unwise. Again, interest rates are cyclical with a pretty well defined mean. We have spent well over a decade significantly below the mean. At some point that will reverse to take us back to mean (arguably that reversal has already begun), most likely with a spike above before settling back to the mean level. Given that, again, interest rates are determined by humans and thus subject to human psychology, it is highly likely the mistakes of the past will be repeated again. It wouldn't be at all unsurprising if the central banks are too dovish on monetary policy for too long, allowing inflation to start running and forcing them to try and chase it with interest rates in order to wrestle it back under control - cue interest rates at 10%+ with rampant inflation. The US is actively stoking inflation (trade war anyone?), possibly intentionally, as they need to try and inflate their way out of the insurmountable debt mountain they are drowning under. In real terms inflation devalues assets whose prices remain stagnant.
This is relevant because these repeated behaviours produce recognisable patterns which allows us to forecast what is most probable to happen next. You may not think values are going to crash, but history (driven by human behaviour) point to that being most probable. It may not be now, but it is likely to occur and, again, human nature generally underestimates both how long it takes for these events to unfold and how far pricing will correct. The chance of a return to '80s or '90s values in real terms is far higher than you would expect.
This doesn't just apply to cars, but to every asset class. Nobody trading Brent crude at $140 per barrel in '08 could have imagined it would be trading at $34 before the year was out. Likewise Deutsche Bank shares from 160 to 25. These significant corrections are everywhere in every asset class - cars included - and always have been. We can be certain that they will occur again in the future.
Presently, the evidence points to a correction in classic pricing having already begun - we're well beyond the 'Stealth Phase', certainly past the 'Awareness Phase' and probably through the 'Mania Phase'. We aren't seeing the 'New Paradigm' record prices that were being set last year at auction and there is plenty of denial around evidenced by vehicles failing to sell quickly, as they would in the 'greed' and 'delusion' phases. Consequently we are most likely to be in the 'Blow off Phase' and can expect pricing to behave accordingly.
By the way, assuming that low interest rates will be the saviour of the sector is unwise. Again, interest rates are cyclical with a pretty well defined mean. We have spent well over a decade significantly below the mean. At some point that will reverse to take us back to mean (arguably that reversal has already begun), most likely with a spike above before settling back to the mean level. Given that, again, interest rates are determined by humans and thus subject to human psychology, it is highly likely the mistakes of the past will be repeated again. It wouldn't be at all unsurprising if the central banks are too dovish on monetary policy for too long, allowing inflation to start running and forcing them to try and chase it with interest rates in order to wrestle it back under control - cue interest rates at 10%+ with rampant inflation. The US is actively stoking inflation (trade war anyone?), possibly intentionally, as they need to try and inflate their way out of the insurmountable debt mountain they are drowning under. In real terms inflation devalues assets whose prices remain stagnant.
Edited by larrylamb11 on Wednesday 11th April 16:03
dsl2 said:
Well I'm deliberately flying in the face of this thread having picked up this little beauty today.
Not really the ideal day for it given that its mainly pissed it down but the car had been a total joy to drive non the less.
Quite a novelty in this running in phase using the prodigious torque to make a lowish rpm tall gear overtakes rather than the blip it down rev it out nature of my Boxster GTS.
Whilst I'm being controversial I even like the noises it makes!
Good man. Bought a car to drive? Weirdo. ;-)Not really the ideal day for it given that its mainly pissed it down but the car had been a total joy to drive non the less.
Quite a novelty in this running in phase using the prodigious torque to make a lowish rpm tall gear overtakes rather than the blip it down rev it out nature of my Boxster GTS.
Whilst I'm being controversial I even like the noises it makes!
I know I feel such a tt spending money on a depreciating "asset".
What a total waste of money just to drive around for a bit of fun when I could of left it invested & got my rocks off looking at the money on a computer screen. All the time knowing when I die the kids will then blow it on a couple of super cars anyway!
Leg have you not had a run out in a Mc 570s? With your stable of cars inc Lotus's I'm sure you would find some common ground in terms of fab steering feel & a great ride handling compromise. I'm very impressed with it, feels light & up on its toes with a lovely pointy front end.
t spending money on a depreciating "asset". What a total waste of money just to drive around for a bit of fun when I could of left it invested & got my rocks off looking at the money on a computer screen. All the time knowing when I die the kids will then blow it on a couple of super cars anyway!
Leg have you not had a run out in a Mc 570s? With your stable of cars inc Lotus's I'm sure you would find some common ground in terms of fab steering feel & a great ride handling compromise. I'm very impressed with it, feels light & up on its toes with a lovely pointy front end.
_Leg_ said:
I'm more concerned with how many years I have left when I can get in and out of low sportscars/supercars with bucket seats given I'm 48 in 2 weeks. It's the first time '50' has entered my head and the first time I've looked backwards and thought, "st, I was 21 a moment ago".
I'm off for a drive before it's too late.
I know the feeling, made more apparent by the premature death recently of some of my sporting heroes at the age of 60. Attitude and outlook on life has changed dramatically so likewise I'm off for a drive now while I still can t, I was 21 a moment ago".I'm off for a drive before it's too late.
willy wombat said:
dsl2 - talking of kids - as they say, if you can afford to turn left when you board a plane but don't, you can be sure that when you die your kids will (turn left). Same goes for buying supercars - if you can afford it, do it!
Strangely enough I was forever telling my father he should spend his money on himself and that I can look after myself. I certainly have a different approach than my parents generation and whilst I might not choose to turn left on the plane nor will my kids unless they pull their fingers out Though I wholeheartedly agree with that sentient,
as Andrew Carnegie said, “a man who dies rich, dies disgraced”,
this thread is about the fact that the rather unusual period we’ve been through
where you could buy a supercar new, or newish, run it and kinda get out of it free,
seems to have passed.
as Andrew Carnegie said, “a man who dies rich, dies disgraced”,
this thread is about the fact that the rather unusual period we’ve been through
where you could buy a supercar new, or newish, run it and kinda get out of it free,
seems to have passed.
dsl2 said:
I know I feel such a tt spending money on a depreciating "asset".
What a total waste of money just to drive around for a bit of fun when I could of left it invested & got my rocks off looking at the money on a computer screen. All the time knowing when I die the kids will then blow it on a couple of super cars anyway!
Leg have you not had a run out in a Mc 570s? With your stable of cars inc Lotus's I'm sure you would find some common ground in terms of fab steering feel & a great ride handling compromise. I'm very impressed with it, feels light & up on its toes with a lovely pointy front end.
I'm sure they're great cars but I'm not a fan of McLaren's I'm afraid. t spending money on a depreciating "asset". What a total waste of money just to drive around for a bit of fun when I could of left it invested & got my rocks off looking at the money on a computer screen. All the time knowing when I die the kids will then blow it on a couple of super cars anyway!
Leg have you not had a run out in a Mc 570s? With your stable of cars inc Lotus's I'm sure you would find some common ground in terms of fab steering feel & a great ride handling compromise. I'm very impressed with it, feels light & up on its toes with a lovely pointy front end.
ghost83 said:
_Leg_ said:
I'm sure they're great cars but I'm not a fan of McLaren's I'm afraid.
Mind if I ask whyFirstly, I'm a big fan of Italy, the culture, the people, the place, the language. I did nothing at school, partook in the Manchester err, ‘chemical’ scene in the late eighties and early nineties and then reacted to that by becoming a little too serious between 25 and 44. I spent that period of my life doing the sensible thing at every turn. It paid off, I sold my company, retired and decided it was time to try and lighten up a bit.
This is why I'm attracted to the more relaxed culture that I perceive Italy has. I started night school learning Italian in January, I go there 3-4 times a year, when my sons are more independent I'll spend half my year there. My racing heroes are Nuvolari, Ascari etc, not Moss or Mansell.
Secondly, I had posters of Ferraris on my wall as a kid, not McLaren's.
Thirdly, and without getting into 'oh everyone says that', for me, there's something special about Ferrari that no other manufacturer has, not even the hypercar brigade has. This is probably, in part, derived from point 2. I still get in the Ferraris and sometimes out loud say, 'holy f
k, this is mine'.Fourth, I happened to be in a position to buy supercars (I've never done credit apart from when I used to have a mortgage since a bad experience when I was quite young) at the point when Ferraris were easy to own, still sounded amazing and had got to the stage where they were faster than any road car needs to be and reliable enough to do plenty of miles.
So, that’s why I own Ferraris.
Why don't I own a McLaren?
The front end of all but the 12C and 720S look like a grinning oriental gentleman. I can't help it, once I saw it, that's all I see.
I never dreamed about owning one, I never had a poster of one.
Leading on from my first point above, the brand represents specifics, seriousness, technical detail and numbers to my mind, the exact opposite of my perception of Ferrari and Italy.
More general points...
I don't buy into the latest is best thing, I don't buy into the silly game manufacturers are playing of more and more power. This applies to the 488 and 812 also. I get asked, "are you going to upgrade your 458 to a 488?". I don't get it. If 458 to 488 was an upgrade then I wouldn't own, and love, an E92 M3, a Mk1 Escort RS1600 BDA, a 1967 Abarth 595 etc, I would have a new M4, a Focus RS and a new Abarth 595.
Also, I have 15 cars. I develop relationships with my cars and find it hard to part with them. A mate was laughing at me this week when I said, of the 458 Spider, 'Yeah, had it 4 years this summer, we've been on loads of adventures together' without a hint of joke about it. If I did buy a McLaren, something would have to go as I have no room left. I can't pick a single car out I would be able to part with and nothing out there, that I can justify the spend on, inspires me enough to pick one out to swap.
So there you go, a myriad of reasons really. They don't need to be correct, they don't even need to make sense, it’s just how I feel. And that is precisely why anyone should buy a given supercar if you ask me, because of how they feel about it.
And, picking up on the thread's subject matter, whenever I start to think of any money I may have made or lost on cars, as it's inevitable I will from time to time, I dismiss it immediately because I bought them to enjoy. Worrying about their values would only detract from that and if you go down that route you've still lost the money, and also lost the value. Lose Lose.
Long may we all enjoy our cars. Just don’t buy a Prius.
:-)
Edited by _Leg_ on Saturday 14th April 00:01
dsl2 said:
I know I feel such a tt spending money on a depreciating "asset".
Don't feel too bad. A friend's just paid £104k cash on a new Panamera. They've pissed away £20k just for the privilege of driving out of the Porsche showroom and having a Porsche driving experience at Silverstone. Tried desperately to convince them to buy a test miles only/sub 5k miles car and save the £20k. As per Larry's post above, people's financial stupidity will always remain...stupid. t spending money on a depreciating "asset". 
v8250 said:
Don't feel too bad. A friend's just paid £104k cash on a new Panamera. They've pissed away £20k just for the privilege of driving out of the Porsche showroom and having a Porsche driving experience at Silverstone. Tried desperately to convince them to buy a test miles only/sub 5k miles car and save the £20k. As per Larry's post above, people's financial stupidity will always remain...stupid.
Errr...I don’t think that someone who has either the means to pay £104,000 cash and be able to stomach £20k depreciation can be called stupid!_Leg_ said:
Not at all, so long as the thread doesn't descend into a 'sonso marque is better than t'other' debate. You may regret asking though..... ;-)
Firstly, I'm a big fan of Italy, the culture, the people, the place, the language. I did nothing at school, partook in the Manchester err, ‘chemical’ scene in the late eighties and early nineties and then reacted to that by becoming a little too serious between 25 and 44. I spent that period of my life doing the sensible thing at every turn. It paid off, I sold my company, retired and decided it was time to try and lighten up a bit.
This is why I'm attracted to the more relaxed culture that I perceive Italy has. I started night school learning Italian in January, I go there 3-4 times a year, when my sons are more independent I'll spend half my year there. My racing heroes are Nuvolari, Ascari etc, not Moss or Mansell.
Secondly, I had posters of Ferraris on my wall as a kid, not McLaren's.
Thirdly, and without getting into 'oh everyone says that', for me, there's something special about Ferrari that no other manufacturer has, not even the hypercar brigade has. This is probably, in part, derived from point 2. I still get in the Ferraris and sometimes out loud say, 'holy fk, this is mine'.
Fourth, I happened to be in a position to buy supercars (I've never done credit apart from when I used to have a mortgage since a bad experience when I was quite young) at the point when Ferraris were easy to own, still sounded amazing and had got to the stage where they were faster than any road car needs to be and reliable enough to do plenty of miles.
So, that’s why I own Ferraris.
Why don't I own a McLaren?
The front end of all but the 12C and 720S look like a grinning oriental gentleman. I can't help it, once I saw it, that's all I see.
I never dreamed about owning one, I never had a poster of one.
Leading on from my first point above, the brand represents specifics, seriousness, technical detail and numbers to my mind, the exact opposite of my perception of Ferrari and Italy.
More general points...
I don't buy into the latest is best thing, I don't buy into the silly game manufacturers are playing of more and more power. This applies to the 488 and 812 also. I get asked, "are you going to upgrade your 458 to a 488?". I don't get it. If 458 to 488 was an upgrade then I wouldn't own, and love, an E92 M3, a Mk1 Escort RS1600 BDA, a 1967 Abarth 595 etc, I would have a new M4, a Focus RS and a new Abarth 595.
Also, I have 15 cars. I develop relationships with my cars and find it hard to part with them. A mate was laughing at me this week when I said, of the 458 Spider, 'Yeah, had it 4 years this summer, we've been on loads of adventures together' without a hint of joke about it. If I did buy a McLaren, something would have to go as I have no room left. I can't pick a single car out I would be able to part with and nothing out there, that I can justify the spend on, inspires me enough to pick one out to swap.
So there you go, a myriad of reasons really. They don't need to be correct, they don't even need to make sense, it’s just how I feel. And that is precisely why anyone should buy a given supercar if you ask me, because of how they feel about it.
And, picking up on the thread's subject matter, whenever I start to think of any money I may have made or lost on cars, as it's inevitable I will from time to time, I dismiss it immediately because I bought them to enjoy. Worrying about their values would only detract from that and if you go down that route you've still lost the money, and also lost the value. Lose Lose.
Long may we all enjoy our cars. Just don’t buy a Prius.
:-)
Unfortunately I have no idea how to get to your enviable position BUT I do like the mclaren and drove a 12c but if I ever had 200k plus I wouldn’t buy one! The horror stories of break downs and massive service and repair costs put me off! And I hear their customer service leaves a lot to be desired! If you like Italy you ever had a lambo?Firstly, I'm a big fan of Italy, the culture, the people, the place, the language. I did nothing at school, partook in the Manchester err, ‘chemical’ scene in the late eighties and early nineties and then reacted to that by becoming a little too serious between 25 and 44. I spent that period of my life doing the sensible thing at every turn. It paid off, I sold my company, retired and decided it was time to try and lighten up a bit.
This is why I'm attracted to the more relaxed culture that I perceive Italy has. I started night school learning Italian in January, I go there 3-4 times a year, when my sons are more independent I'll spend half my year there. My racing heroes are Nuvolari, Ascari etc, not Moss or Mansell.
Secondly, I had posters of Ferraris on my wall as a kid, not McLaren's.
Thirdly, and without getting into 'oh everyone says that', for me, there's something special about Ferrari that no other manufacturer has, not even the hypercar brigade has. This is probably, in part, derived from point 2. I still get in the Ferraris and sometimes out loud say, 'holy f
k, this is mine'.Fourth, I happened to be in a position to buy supercars (I've never done credit apart from when I used to have a mortgage since a bad experience when I was quite young) at the point when Ferraris were easy to own, still sounded amazing and had got to the stage where they were faster than any road car needs to be and reliable enough to do plenty of miles.
So, that’s why I own Ferraris.
Why don't I own a McLaren?
The front end of all but the 12C and 720S look like a grinning oriental gentleman. I can't help it, once I saw it, that's all I see.
I never dreamed about owning one, I never had a poster of one.
Leading on from my first point above, the brand represents specifics, seriousness, technical detail and numbers to my mind, the exact opposite of my perception of Ferrari and Italy.
More general points...
I don't buy into the latest is best thing, I don't buy into the silly game manufacturers are playing of more and more power. This applies to the 488 and 812 also. I get asked, "are you going to upgrade your 458 to a 488?". I don't get it. If 458 to 488 was an upgrade then I wouldn't own, and love, an E92 M3, a Mk1 Escort RS1600 BDA, a 1967 Abarth 595 etc, I would have a new M4, a Focus RS and a new Abarth 595.
Also, I have 15 cars. I develop relationships with my cars and find it hard to part with them. A mate was laughing at me this week when I said, of the 458 Spider, 'Yeah, had it 4 years this summer, we've been on loads of adventures together' without a hint of joke about it. If I did buy a McLaren, something would have to go as I have no room left. I can't pick a single car out I would be able to part with and nothing out there, that I can justify the spend on, inspires me enough to pick one out to swap.
So there you go, a myriad of reasons really. They don't need to be correct, they don't even need to make sense, it’s just how I feel. And that is precisely why anyone should buy a given supercar if you ask me, because of how they feel about it.
And, picking up on the thread's subject matter, whenever I start to think of any money I may have made or lost on cars, as it's inevitable I will from time to time, I dismiss it immediately because I bought them to enjoy. Worrying about their values would only detract from that and if you go down that route you've still lost the money, and also lost the value. Lose Lose.
Long may we all enjoy our cars. Just don’t buy a Prius.
:-)
Edited by _Leg_ on Saturday 14th April 00:01
ghost83 said:
Unfortunately I have no idea how to get to your enviable position BUT I do like the mclaren and drove a 12c but if I ever had 200k plus I wouldn’t buy one! The horror stories of break downs and massive service and repair costs put me off! And I hear their customer service leaves a lot to be desired! If you like Italy you ever had a lambo?
Don't believe everything you read or hear. I will be shortly on my 3rd McLaren having done over 15,000 miles and in 3 years not had a single issue.Oh the battery in the remote ran out, shock horror
Lots of scaremongering of the McLaren brand goes on where 1 isolated incident on the internet suddenly becomes an epidemic.
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