Chris Harris's Column -- Burst Bubble;Massive Dump;Bargains
Discussion
davek_964 said:
I appreciate your concern, but nothing I own is financed.
Not concerned for yourself as such just the market in general, yours has no finance so you can enjoy it and go from there I’m more on about those that have financed a large sum and then the arse falls out of the car OR I was recently offered a 570s on a £20k deposit and £500 a month it was similar to a pcp but with no future guarantee and considering a lot apparently do that they could find themselves in a whole heap of trouble, I myself couldn’t afford that but I gather it’s what a lot of youtubers do! See I’m personally deliberating on a RS3 or waiting on this “bubble” so I can get something else for similar money
ghost83 said:
So since he’s been saying it again is the bubble gonna burst? It’s all I’ve heard for over 18 month and whilst car sales seem to be pretty stale I haven’t seen a massive drop yet!
Really? Have you seen the white Performante at JCT Leeds thats dropping weekly it seems and at £169k is still unsold?! They were, what, £270k this time 12 months ago?! What is yet to drop properly is the lower bracket of early Gallardos, 360s, 430s etc which just seem to remain unsold but prices unchanged. It's meaning the bunching of vehicles is getting bizarre in that a 2016 Huracan isn't much more than a 2007 pre-LP Gallardo.
'' What is yet to drop properly is the lower bracket of early Gallardos, 360s, 430s etc which just seem to remain unsold but prices unchanged. It's meaning the bunching of vehicles is getting bizarre in that a 2016 Huracan isn't much more than a 2007 pre-LP Gallardo.''
Yes , this disconnect appears to be real .
The '' bargains '' appear to be higher up the food chain
I wonder why :
1) These are cars that have been bought on finance , and the monthly payments are no longer affordable ?
( But UK unemployment figures remain low )
2) People are doing well enough to be able to upgrade to the newest, and shiniest new car ?
(But aren't new car sales down )
3) More people can afford a car from the lower end of the supercar price range than from the upper end , so there is more demand , which in turn gives a floor to the price ?
Yes , this disconnect appears to be real .
The '' bargains '' appear to be higher up the food chain
I wonder why :
1) These are cars that have been bought on finance , and the monthly payments are no longer affordable ?
( But UK unemployment figures remain low )
2) People are doing well enough to be able to upgrade to the newest, and shiniest new car ?
(But aren't new car sales down )
3) More people can afford a car from the lower end of the supercar price range than from the upper end , so there is more demand , which in turn gives a floor to the price ?
Shnozz said:
Really? Have you seen the white Performante at JCT Leeds thats dropping weekly it seems and at £169k is still unsold?! They were, what, £270k this time 12 months ago?!
What is yet to drop properly is the lower bracket of early Gallardos, 360s, 430s etc which just seem to remain unsold but prices unchanged. It's meaning the bunching of vehicles is getting bizarre in that a 2016 Huracan isn't much more than a 2007 pre-LP Gallardo.
Sorry I should have said with the lower end, I’ve seen the performante dropping but tbh when cars are well out of my budget I don’t bother looking, instead I’m watching the 650s and 570s I’ve seen pre plz gallardos upto 99k currently which is absurd, I’m hoping another 2yrs and cars will be back to where they were a few years ago 40/50/60k for Ferrari’s and lambos and tbh hopefully mclarensWhat is yet to drop properly is the lower bracket of early Gallardos, 360s, 430s etc which just seem to remain unsold but prices unchanged. It's meaning the bunching of vehicles is getting bizarre in that a 2016 Huracan isn't much more than a 2007 pre-LP Gallardo.
davek_964 said:
I think it's generally accepted that the market is dead and most things aren't selling at the moment - and prices are definitely falling. My 360 is certainly worth less than it was a couple of years ago.
Unfortunately, I'm not one of those people who waits for the optimum time to buy. I could get hit by a bus tomorrow - so while some people are waiting for X months because prices will fall even further, it's a buyer's market, I'll be able to pick one up for 50p in the winter blah blah blah - I spend my free time driving a supercar.
People obsessed about getting the best price and in constant terror at the spectre of depreciation will end up hating supercar ownership. It’s the worst thing to own a car like that, that let’s face it no one needs to own, and being paralysed by the potential bills and actual cost per mile etc.Unfortunately, I'm not one of those people who waits for the optimum time to buy. I could get hit by a bus tomorrow - so while some people are waiting for X months because prices will fall even further, it's a buyer's market, I'll be able to pick one up for 50p in the winter blah blah blah - I spend my free time driving a supercar.
ghost83 said:
Sorry I should have said with the lower end, I’ve seen the performante dropping but tbh when cars are well out of my budget I don’t bother looking, instead I’m watching the 650s and 570s I’ve seen pre plz gallardos upto 99k currently which is absurd, I’m hoping another 2yrs and cars will be back to where they were a few years ago 40/50/60k for Ferrari’s and lambos and tbh hopefully mclarens
I think you’re spot on. As soon as the interest rates go up or borrowing gets harder etc and people are forced to sell, I think those prices will return on the older gen supercarsWhen you look at the list price of new cars now it’s in no doubt helped by the fact that financing of new cars is how most people get into ownership ... some examples new 570s optioned up £170k, new Audi R8 £160k, BMW M5 £100k and even at the 'cheaper' end of the scale M2 or RS3 £50k...now I would say the number of people who have actually shelled out cold hard cash for any of the above examples is fairly minimal if at all but it also means that these cars suffer heavy deprec in the first three years...a 2/3 yo 570s is about 90-100k at the moment could they dump another 30k in two years? Possibly but at the same time it's all relative I suppose...the most a car has cost me was a leased RS6 which over 4 yrs from new after trading it back to an Audi dealer cost me £37k all in (depreciation wise) contrary to that I owned a used Gen 1 V10 plus R8 for 2 years and that was only £10k all in ( i traded it it last yr before the mkt dipped admittedly) ...on that basis I am loathe to ever buy a brand new car again!
Shnozz said:
Really? Have you seen the white Performante at JCT Leeds thats dropping weekly it seems and at £169k is still unsold?! They were, what, £270k this time 12 months ago?!
What is yet to drop properly is the lower bracket of early Gallardos, 360s, 430s etc which just seem to remain unsold but prices unchanged. It's meaning the bunching of vehicles is getting bizarre in that a 2016 Huracan isn't much more than a 2007 pre-LP Gallardo.
It's a pretty standard spec (no lds, no sensonum, no exterior gloss) and seems like White and Black Perfs are taking the biggest hits. SV's dipped quite a bit, stopped for a while but they're dipping again. Nothing is safe in the current supercar market. What is yet to drop properly is the lower bracket of early Gallardos, 360s, 430s etc which just seem to remain unsold but prices unchanged. It's meaning the bunching of vehicles is getting bizarre in that a 2016 Huracan isn't much more than a 2007 pre-LP Gallardo.
South tdf said:
I noticed that Lamborghini Sevenoaks shut yesterday but I guess it does not help having a rival dealer group with Lamborghini in Tonbridge plus the site has great residential redevelopment potential and value.
I dropped in there a few months ago and they said they were dropping the Lambo franchise (prob because of the Tunbridge dealership) and becoming something else, in addition to the Aston dealership they have down the road. My bet would be Maclaren.There’s a new lambo dealer coming to Leeds next door to mclaren,
On a side note there’s a yellow 570s on autotrader £87,995 on the finance for that he said guaranteed future value will be 43k in 4yrs, if they do drop to around 43-50k in another 4yrs then they will be fairly good bargains considering
On a side note there’s a yellow 570s on autotrader £87,995 on the finance for that he said guaranteed future value will be 43k in 4yrs, if they do drop to around 43-50k in another 4yrs then they will be fairly good bargains considering
ghost83 said:
There’s a new lambo dealer coming to Leeds next door to mclaren,
On a side note there’s a yellow 570s on autotrader £87,995 on the finance for that he said guaranteed future value will be 43k in 4yrs, if they do drop to around 43-50k in another 4yrs then they will be fairly good bargains considering
GFV of £43k!! That would make the McLaren the same price as a new fully specced Golf R. That would be crazy value for money for a serious bit of kit.On a side note there’s a yellow 570s on autotrader £87,995 on the finance for that he said guaranteed future value will be 43k in 4yrs, if they do drop to around 43-50k in another 4yrs then they will be fairly good bargains considering
BlackR8 said:
GFV of £43k!! That would make the McLaren the same price as a new fully specced Golf R. That would be crazy value for money for a serious bit of kit.
And that’s why I’m waiting!! I’m not prepared to spend 80-90k for it to be worth 43k in 4yrs!
I’m about to sell my golf gti and was to put a deposit on a rs3 at 52k but I’m just going to wait and build my money up
Pretty much £120-130k lost in 5-6 yrs that’s some depreciation
Edited by ghost83 on Sunday 13th October 09:21
ghost83 said:
There’s a new lambo dealer coming to Leeds next door to mclaren,
On a side note there’s a yellow 570s on autotrader £87,995 on the finance for that he said guaranteed future value will be 43k in 4yrs, if they do drop to around 43-50k in another 4yrs then they will be fairly good bargains considering
That's not necessarily it's retail market value, that GFV figure is just a residual that the finance company are comfortable to guarantee. I do not see these at that price level in 4 years when there's limited choice of proper non hybrid/electric supercars that is shrinking every year. I, for one, will be disappointed if my car is worth only tuppence but if so I'll just enjoy it everyday rather than occasional weekend days in the summer.On a side note there’s a yellow 570s on autotrader £87,995 on the finance for that he said guaranteed future value will be 43k in 4yrs, if they do drop to around 43-50k in another 4yrs then they will be fairly good bargains considering
BlackR8 said:
GFV of £43k!! That would make the McLaren the same price as a new fully specced Golf R. That would be crazy value for money for a serious bit of kit.
Would it be crazy or just a return to the long term status quo ? The long term trend was that a 7 to 10-year old 'junior supercars' could be bought for the same price as a brand new 'top of the range hot hatch'. Back in 2010, a focus RS was as good as a £30k, same as a used Ferrari 360, early Aston V8 or early 997/ late 996.
There is an episode of Top gear from 2005, where the three of them buy 25-year-old supercars for £10k (or less). The equivalent today would be to pick up a mid-90s NSX, 355 or 993 for sub £15k.
I know it is never going to happen, but it somewhat highlights that it is easy to judge the norm of supercar values by what has been witnessed in the past 8 years when the real norm could be very different.
Sold my 355 when it was 12 or 13 years old for 27k in 2010 - so while I believe the 44k GFV is below expected retail (kinda obvious), I don’t see a 570 for 50k at 6-7 years old as completely unrealistic given the seemingly endless number of cars in the 50-150k price bracket nowadays. People who have 50k to spend on a car don’t necessarily have 10 or more percent of its PP to run it, as a result old but not yet classic super cars always (until about 5-6 years ago) had a limited group of buyers / bad value retention as far as I can recall
BlackR8 said:
GFV of £43k!! That would make the McLaren the same price as a new fully specced Golf R. That would be crazy value for money for a serious bit of kit.
The Golf will be rather cheaper to keep on the road.The problem with the very complex modern sports cars will be the cost of keeping them going.
The older cars will be cheaper to keep on the road.
£43k GFV in 4 years time for a car that is retailing for £87k today - appears sensible.
GFV is normally a % of what the experts think it will be worth, on risky stuff I have seen this at around 85%.
Therefore £43k might be 85% of what the models suggest it will be worth in trade, suggesting a 'real' trade value of £50k
Extrapolating all this out ends up with this 570s estimated to lose about £700 a month in value, my previous 650s lost that a week
GFV is normally a % of what the experts think it will be worth, on risky stuff I have seen this at around 85%.
Therefore £43k might be 85% of what the models suggest it will be worth in trade, suggesting a 'real' trade value of £50k
Extrapolating all this out ends up with this 570s estimated to lose about £700 a month in value, my previous 650s lost that a week
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