Chris Harris's Column -- Burst Bubble;Massive Dump;Bargains
Discussion
ghost83 said:
Even if they’re 60k though that’s fantastic value! Will we see the 12c at R8 V10 levels at 55-60k
Even now I’d rather have a 570s than an m5 for example
Yes the running costs will be higher but what is the servicing on a mclaren 570s and warranty costs out of interest
Roughly £800.00 for the small and £1500.00 for the big service with a McLaren warranty of £2800.00 per year. Not cheap but then not ridiculous considering some of the parts costs. Even now I’d rather have a 570s than an m5 for example
Yes the running costs will be higher but what is the servicing on a mclaren 570s and warranty costs out of interest
More independent service centres needed to reduce the main dealer labour costs and that will open up the market giving stronger residuals, atm the running costs are putting off a lot of potential buyers.
Crazy4557 said:
Roughly £800.00 for the small and £1500.00 for the big service with a McLaren warranty of £2800.00 per year. Not cheap but then not ridiculous considering some of the parts costs.
More independent service centres needed to reduce the main dealer labour costs and that will open up the market giving stronger residuals, atm the running costs are putting off a lot of potential buyers.
I don’t think those running costs are that bad actually More independent service centres needed to reduce the main dealer labour costs and that will open up the market giving stronger residuals, atm the running costs are putting off a lot of potential buyers.
ghost83 said:
Crazy4557 said:
Roughly £800.00 for the small and £1500.00 for the big service with a McLaren warranty of £2800.00 per year. Not cheap but then not ridiculous considering some of the parts costs.
More independent service centres needed to reduce the main dealer labour costs and that will open up the market giving stronger residuals, atm the running costs are putting off a lot of potential buyers.
I don’t think those running costs are that bad actually More independent service centres needed to reduce the main dealer labour costs and that will open up the market giving stronger residuals, atm the running costs are putting off a lot of potential buyers.
Warranty is £5600 for two years to extend
Tyres £250 a corner.
26mpg.
Watching this thread with interest.
Amazing how the market was in circa 2006 through to now.
Interesting to see how values have moved and the current state of flux in the market now.
A good friend who owns a "specialist dealer" cites that very little is moving at all in the "modern classic" bracket. i.e 996 / 997 GT3's, RS's etc. Indeed they won't purchase any stock. Has to be SOR and then at a "realistic" price. Some dealers with SOR stock are now requesting "storage fees" as they cannot sit on volumes of SOR stock that doesn't move.
A colleague with a Ferrari 456 was contemplating selling three years back. The Ferrari independents were then offering to purchase the car. 2019 and they're not interested in purchasing and also not particularly interested in SOR either.
A great saying "as the tide goes out" and equally, no one wants to catch a falling knife adequately sums up the current market IMO
I personally think that the coming months will start to see some very cheap dealer cars on the market due to the need to move stock (the Performante mentioned earlier as a good example) and this will undeniably trickle down into the lower market. There is too much stock and not enough buyers.
Popcorn at the ready
Amazing how the market was in circa 2006 through to now.
Interesting to see how values have moved and the current state of flux in the market now.
A good friend who owns a "specialist dealer" cites that very little is moving at all in the "modern classic" bracket. i.e 996 / 997 GT3's, RS's etc. Indeed they won't purchase any stock. Has to be SOR and then at a "realistic" price. Some dealers with SOR stock are now requesting "storage fees" as they cannot sit on volumes of SOR stock that doesn't move.
A colleague with a Ferrari 456 was contemplating selling three years back. The Ferrari independents were then offering to purchase the car. 2019 and they're not interested in purchasing and also not particularly interested in SOR either.
A great saying "as the tide goes out" and equally, no one wants to catch a falling knife adequately sums up the current market IMO
I personally think that the coming months will start to see some very cheap dealer cars on the market due to the need to move stock (the Performante mentioned earlier as a good example) and this will undeniably trickle down into the lower market. There is too much stock and not enough buyers.
Popcorn at the ready
Edited by Candellara on Sunday 13th October 17:03
Edited by Candellara on Sunday 13th October 17:05
Edited by Candellara on Sunday 13th October 17:06
Candellara said:
Watching this thread with interest.
Amazing how the market was in circa 2006 through to now.
Interesting to see how values have moved and the current state of flux in the market now.
A good friend who owns a "specialist dealer" cites that very little is moving at all in the "modern classic" bracket. i.e 996 / 997 GT3's, RS's etc. Indeed they won't purchase any stock. Has to be SOR and then at a "realistic" price. Some dealers with SOR stock are now requesting "storage fees" as they cannot sit on volumes of SOR stock that doesn't move.
A colleague with a Ferrari 456 was contemplating selling three years back. The Ferrari independents were then offering to purchase the car. 2019 and they're not interested in purchasing and also not particularly interested in SOR either.
A great saying "as the tide goes out" and equally, no one wants to catch a falling knife adequately sums up the current market IMO
I personally think that the coming months will start to see some very cheap dealer cars on the market due to the need to move stock (the Performante mentioned earlier as a good example) and this will undeniably trickle down into the lower market. There is too much stock and not enough buyers.
Popcorn at the ready
I was at Leeds mclaren last weekend and they have a massive amount of stock, trouble is they seem to have had the same stock for the last 6 month! They’ve got a lovely senna in tooAmazing how the market was in circa 2006 through to now.
Interesting to see how values have moved and the current state of flux in the market now.
A good friend who owns a "specialist dealer" cites that very little is moving at all in the "modern classic" bracket. i.e 996 / 997 GT3's, RS's etc. Indeed they won't purchase any stock. Has to be SOR and then at a "realistic" price. Some dealers with SOR stock are now requesting "storage fees" as they cannot sit on volumes of SOR stock that doesn't move.
A colleague with a Ferrari 456 was contemplating selling three years back. The Ferrari independents were then offering to purchase the car. 2019 and they're not interested in purchasing and also not particularly interested in SOR either.
A great saying "as the tide goes out" and equally, no one wants to catch a falling knife adequately sums up the current market IMO
I personally think that the coming months will start to see some very cheap dealer cars on the market due to the need to move stock (the Performante mentioned earlier as a good example) and this will undeniably trickle down into the lower market. There is too much stock and not enough buyers.
Popcorn at the ready
Edited by Candellara on Sunday 13th October 17:03
Edited by Candellara on Sunday 13th October 17:05
Edited by Candellara on Sunday 13th October 17:06
Drl22 said:
I don’t understand why everyone is surprised by the current state of the market. Uncertainty in the economy means people don’t spend, once brexit is cleared up I would expect the market to stabilise again as a direction is forged and stability returns.
Not if a lot of businesses are affected ppl will be less willing to spend and look at how many companies are going bust!Wilmslowboy said:
BlackR8 said:
GFV of £43k!! That would make the McLaren the same price as a new fully specced Golf R. That would be crazy value for money for a serious bit of kit.
Would it be crazy or just a return to the long term status quo ? The long term trend was that a 7 to 10-year old 'junior supercars' could be bought for the same price as a brand new 'top of the range hot hatch'. Back in 2010, a focus RS was as good as a £30k, same as a used Ferrari 360, early Aston V8 or early 997/ late 996.
There is an episode of Top gear from 2005, where the three of them buy 25-year-old supercars for £10k (or less). The equivalent today would be to pick up a mid-90s NSX, 355 or 993 for sub £15k.
I know it is never going to happen, but it somewhat highlights that it is easy to judge the norm of supercar values by what has been witnessed in the past 8 years when the real norm could be very different.
Candellara said:
Watching this thread with interest.
Amazing how the market was in circa 2006 through to now.
Interesting to see how values have moved and the current state of flux in the market now.
A good friend who owns a "specialist dealer" cites that very little is moving at all in the "modern classic" bracket. i.e 996 / 997 GT3's, RS's etc. Indeed they won't purchase any stock. Has to be SOR and then at a "realistic" price. Some dealers with SOR stock are now requesting "storage fees" as they cannot sit on volumes of SOR stock that doesn't move.
A colleague with a Ferrari 456 was contemplating selling three years back. The Ferrari independents were then offering to purchase the car. 2019 and they're not interested in purchasing and also not particularly interested in SOR either.
A great saying "as the tide goes out" and equally, no one wants to catch a falling knife adequately sums up the current market IMO
I personally think that the coming months will start to see some very cheap dealer cars on the market due to the need to move stock (the Performante mentioned earlier as a good example) and this will undeniably trickle down into the lower market. There is too much stock and not enough buyers.
Popcorn at the ready
I agree. A lot of similarities with September-October 2008...and looked what happened following that for 18 months...Amazing how the market was in circa 2006 through to now.
Interesting to see how values have moved and the current state of flux in the market now.
A good friend who owns a "specialist dealer" cites that very little is moving at all in the "modern classic" bracket. i.e 996 / 997 GT3's, RS's etc. Indeed they won't purchase any stock. Has to be SOR and then at a "realistic" price. Some dealers with SOR stock are now requesting "storage fees" as they cannot sit on volumes of SOR stock that doesn't move.
A colleague with a Ferrari 456 was contemplating selling three years back. The Ferrari independents were then offering to purchase the car. 2019 and they're not interested in purchasing and also not particularly interested in SOR either.
A great saying "as the tide goes out" and equally, no one wants to catch a falling knife adequately sums up the current market IMO
I personally think that the coming months will start to see some very cheap dealer cars on the market due to the need to move stock (the Performante mentioned earlier as a good example) and this will undeniably trickle down into the lower market. There is too much stock and not enough buyers.
Popcorn at the ready
Edited by Candellara on Sunday 13th October 17:03
Edited by Candellara on Sunday 13th October 17:05
Edited by Candellara on Sunday 13th October 17:06
TobyTR said:
I agree. A lot of similarities with September-October 2008...and looked what happened following that for 18 months...
If I remember correctly, we entered the late 2008 period with norm (let's call it modest) car values., this time we are entering with inflated values.There was then a short period, perhaps less than a year, were car values dropped (give or take), 25%. Then a long steady rise, with many cars doubling in value over the next 5 years.
A 75k Lambo, became £55k to then go onto to become £120k, today the same car is around £100k.
If there is a crash will it drop back to £80k or £55k ..
Wilmslowboy said:
If I remember correctly, we entered the late 2008 period with norm (let's call it modest) car values., this time we are entering with inflated values.
There was then a short period, perhaps less than a year, were car values dropped (give or take), 25%. Then a long steady rise, with many cars doubling in value over the next 5 years.
A 75k Lambo, became £55k to then go onto to become £120k, today the same car is around £100k.
If there is a crash will it drop back to £80k or £55k ..
If there's much truth in the attached graph (and I personally think that this will happen) - prices will return to pre-2008 levels. (back when Ferrari 348's were sub 30k) There was then a short period, perhaps less than a year, were car values dropped (give or take), 25%. Then a long steady rise, with many cars doubling in value over the next 5 years.
A 75k Lambo, became £55k to then go onto to become £120k, today the same car is around £100k.
If there is a crash will it drop back to £80k or £55k ..
Candellara said:
If there's much truth in the attached graph (and I personally think that this will happen) - prices will return to pre-2008 levels. (back when Ferrari 348's were sub 30k)
Thing is IF you had got in at a certain level but now found yourself in a real bath situation wouldn’t you take the view of simply holding it for the long term - it’s cyclical so in time you’ll be back to when you got in or at a level acceptable to you to exit and crystallise th losses. Welshbeef said:
Candellara said:
Thing is IF you had got in at a certain level but now found yourself in a real bath situation wouldn’t you take the view of simply holding it for the long term - it’s cyclical so in time you’ll be back to when you got in or at a level acceptable to you to exit and crystallise th losses. I have this argument with friends who refuse to sell shares that have dropped in value, in the hope they will go back up in value.
If said owner of the hypothetical £30k 348 really believes it will go back up to £60k, why not buy a 2nd one
TobyTR said:
I agree. A lot of similarities with September-October 2008...and looked what happened following that for 18 months...
The US sub-prime crisis was fully in meltdown in sep08. There is nothing even vaguely close to that happening in the world right now even if various economic numbers are showing weakness across the various developed countries....Wilmslowboy said:
Ahh the investor fallacy
I have this argument with friends who refuse to sell shares that have dropped in value, in the hope they will go back up in value.
If said owner of the hypothetical £30k 348 really believes it will go back up to £60k, why not buy a 2nd one
You are of course correct, though at least stocks often pay you to hold them (divs) but cars ALWAYS have a cost of carry (insurance, service, storage etc), and thats if they dont break on you.I have this argument with friends who refuse to sell shares that have dropped in value, in the hope they will go back up in value.
If said owner of the hypothetical £30k 348 really believes it will go back up to £60k, why not buy a 2nd one
People have been predicting the bubble bursting for years.
I remember looking at a £80k F430 Spider F1 at Christmas 2014 and getting sucked up in the whole "prices are due a correction" thought process, and consequently I was too slow to place a deposit and it was later resold for £95k. A quick scan of the classifieds suggest that this car would be the same price today, 5 years on, if not a little more.
Granted people will say "that's what is advertised, not what is selling", but that's an unknowable point really.
There is also the aspect of bias in these discussions too. People looking to get a car have a vested interest in talking down the market, and vice versa.
There are, and have been, various different makes and models that have suffered badly (and predictably) in depreciation, and there are others which have been very resistant. As a Ferrari man unfortunately for me the market has remained very controlled in terms of pricing, it's only very recently for example that I've seen prices on 458s soften, and there is an element of the winter months to factor in too.
As has been said above there is nothing like the worldwide crash of 2008 in play at the moment. Even the spectre of Brexit hasn't had a dramatic effect, interest rates are still super low and credit is not difficult to get.
It is as important as it has ever been to buy the right car for the right price. Buying from a main dealer at any point will see you lose the trade spread and VAT at point of purchase, as it always have. Buying a car from a brand which has had historically horrific (but importantly - predictable) depreciation will see you experiencing this too. None of this is particularly new, remarkable or unexpected.
I remember looking at a £80k F430 Spider F1 at Christmas 2014 and getting sucked up in the whole "prices are due a correction" thought process, and consequently I was too slow to place a deposit and it was later resold for £95k. A quick scan of the classifieds suggest that this car would be the same price today, 5 years on, if not a little more.
Granted people will say "that's what is advertised, not what is selling", but that's an unknowable point really.
There is also the aspect of bias in these discussions too. People looking to get a car have a vested interest in talking down the market, and vice versa.
There are, and have been, various different makes and models that have suffered badly (and predictably) in depreciation, and there are others which have been very resistant. As a Ferrari man unfortunately for me the market has remained very controlled in terms of pricing, it's only very recently for example that I've seen prices on 458s soften, and there is an element of the winter months to factor in too.
As has been said above there is nothing like the worldwide crash of 2008 in play at the moment. Even the spectre of Brexit hasn't had a dramatic effect, interest rates are still super low and credit is not difficult to get.
It is as important as it has ever been to buy the right car for the right price. Buying from a main dealer at any point will see you lose the trade spread and VAT at point of purchase, as it always have. Buying a car from a brand which has had historically horrific (but importantly - predictable) depreciation will see you experiencing this too. None of this is particularly new, remarkable or unexpected.
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