Chris Harris's Column -- Burst Bubble;Massive Dump;Bargains

Chris Harris's Column -- Burst Bubble;Massive Dump;Bargains

Author
Discussion

breadvan

2,004 posts

169 months

Sunday 20th October 2019
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You asked and answered your own question.

I have no plans to return to McLaren, especially for a track hack.

There are already interesting cars falling in my price point, notably the NSX for £90k and M4 GTS for £75k.

Cheib

23,286 posts

176 months

Monday 21st October 2019
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breadvan said:
Cheib said:
Absolutely and none of them will stop making cars to manage residuals in the second hand market....Ferrari might have done in days gone by but not now. Very expensive to slow down or stop production so they will all keep churning out cars.

An awful lot of people bought these cars because they were cheap to run in % depreciation terms or to get access to your Pista/GT2 RS/675 LT. That game is gone now.....buying cars now the depreciation you would suffer to get access to a limited edition car just makes absolutely no sense at all.
To the benefit of mid level cars like the GT4.

Spoke to my dealer (of 20 years) yesterday about px-ing my 992 for a pdk GT4 next year and he said I had absolutely no chance what so ever. I only buy 1 new Porsche a year and just retired so no more need for Cayennes etc. Maybe if I was a more prolific flipper............
With the way the market is I think OPC’s will bend over backwards to keep customers happy that are happy to buy two or three cars a year...whether those are people that are doing it to get GT cars or doing it just because they love buying new cars who knows. Either way it’s become a much more expensive habit to run a Porsche for a few months before chopping it in for something else.

Two years ago OPC’s could sell every car they were allocated whether a Macan or a 911....now they are struggling to shift those cars so I think it’s probably easier to buy yourself a GT slot than it was two years ago. Just look at the amount of 992’s that are up for sale....last time I looked there were 100 on the AUC site....so every OPC has roughly got three used cars plus a demo or two plus new cars coming through looking for a home.

LaurasOtherHalf

21,429 posts

197 months

Monday 21st October 2019
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If the GT cars start to follow a natural depreciation curve however, will people start to clamber to own them?

breadvan

2,004 posts

169 months

Monday 21st October 2019
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LaurasOtherHalf said:
If the GT cars start to follow a natural depreciation curve however, will people start to clamber to own them?
Well, that was my thinking too. Also, I wonder how many depositors are relying on last years p/x values? Should sort the wheat.......

breadvan

2,004 posts

169 months

Monday 21st October 2019
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Cheib said:
breadvan said:
Cheib said:
Absolutely and none of them will stop making cars to manage residuals in the second hand market....Ferrari might have done in days gone by but not now. Very expensive to slow down or stop production so they will all keep churning out cars.

An awful lot of people bought these cars because they were cheap to run in % depreciation terms or to get access to your Pista/GT2 RS/675 LT. That game is gone now.....buying cars now the depreciation you would suffer to get access to a limited edition car just makes absolutely no sense at all.
To the benefit of mid level cars like the GT4.

Spoke to my dealer (of 20 years) yesterday about px-ing my 992 for a pdk GT4 next year and he said I had absolutely no chance what so ever. I only buy 1 new Porsche a year and just retired so no more need for Cayennes etc. Maybe if I was a more prolific flipper............
With the way the market is I think OPC’s will bend over backwards to keep customers happy that are happy to buy two or three cars a year...whether those are people that are doing it to get GT cars or doing it just because they love buying new cars who knows. Either way it’s become a much more expensive habit to run a Porsche for a few months before chopping it in for something else.

Two years ago OPC’s could sell every car they were allocated whether a Macan or a 911....now they are struggling to shift those cars so I think it’s probably easier to buy yourself a GT slot than it was two years ago. Just look at the amount of 992’s that are up for sale....last time I looked there were 100 on the AUC site....so every OPC has roughly got three used cars plus a demo or two plus new cars coming through looking for a home.
Dam you and your sensible posts! wink

hornbaek

3,678 posts

236 months

Monday 21st October 2019
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LaurasOtherHalf said:
If the GT cars start to follow a natural depreciation curve however, will people start to clamber to own them?
Obviously not. Some people will get burnt as normal market conditions will eventually prevail. I noticed that on mobile.de there were 20 Speedsters up for sale already - all commanding a hearty premium but they are building almost 2000 of them at a healthy EUR 300k so lets see how many takers there are at the end.

W111AAM

649 posts

233 months

Tuesday 22nd October 2019
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Anyone seen Tom Hartley Jnr Instagram story last night. He's offering a 2019 Ferrari GTC V12, 300 miles on the clock, big spec, nice colour combo for £100k below list. Wow.

Yidwann

1,872 posts

211 months

Tuesday 22nd October 2019
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W111AAM said:
Anyone seen Tom Hartley Jnr Instagram story last night. He's offering a 2019 Ferrari GTC V12, 300 miles on the clock, big spec, nice colour combo for £100k below list. Wow.
I saw that too... pretty incredible.... I'm sure these guys have it figured out, but if they are holding onto stock thats also taking it hit, you'd think he'd be more worried.

W111AAM

649 posts

233 months

Tuesday 22nd October 2019
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And Tom Hartley will be making some money on that. Meaning the 1st owner has lost over £125k??? Ouch.

WCZ

10,538 posts

195 months

Tuesday 22nd October 2019
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Yidwann said:
I saw that too... pretty incredible.... I'm sure these guys have it figured out, but if they are holding onto stock thats also taking it hit, you'd think he'd be more worried.
many bought a lusso to get a pista or simply because ferrari told them to, many didn't want the car

Durzel

12,276 posts

169 months

Tuesday 22nd October 2019
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WCZ said:
Yidwann said:
I saw that too... pretty incredible.... I'm sure these guys have it figured out, but if they are holding onto stock thats also taking it hit, you'd think he'd be more worried.
many bought a lusso to get a pista or simply because ferrari told them to, many didn't want the car
I'm struggling to rustle up much sympathy for people who buy supercars they don't want just so they can get the ones they do, with whatever depreciation they suffer for doing it. They're the ones choosing to play the game.

MDL111

6,975 posts

178 months

Tuesday 22nd October 2019
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Don’t really get that either - Lusso must be among the best daily drivers you can purchase today - so if you have the money to buy a Lusso and a Pista, why not use the bloody thing instead of selling it on at a 100k plus loss

sparta6

3,699 posts

101 months

Tuesday 22nd October 2019
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W111AAM said:
And Tom Hartley will be making some money on that. Meaning the 1st owner has lost over £125k??? Ouch.
That's just a big night out for some !

fridaypassion

8,582 posts

229 months

Tuesday 22nd October 2019
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I've no sympathy for anyone that's let a purchase decision be guided by how much more the car will be worth.

The time looks to have come to an end when the manufacturers are deciding what the special cars are. Porsche and now Ferrari have totally gubbed that game for themselves. Back to letting the market decide what appreciates.

Porsche have gone full overt now with their mission to dilute their GT car name. Openly testing the RS GT4 when people are still waiting for their boggo ones? Maybe they don't care or maybe they are paving the way for cross board limitless production? Will the same number of people buy them if they don't have the ability to flip them? Our local OPC is always bursting with flipped cars after every launch so I suspect not! There's a definite change in tactics from Porsche though. Imagine that actually being able to buy a car that a company produces. Whatever next?

anonymous-user

55 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
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fridaypassion said:
Porsche have gone full overt now with their mission to dilute their GT car name. Openly testing the RS GT4 when people are still waiting for their boggo ones? Maybe they don't care or maybe they are paving the way for cross board limitless production? Will the same number of people buy them if they don't have the ability to flip them? Our local OPC is always bursting with flipped cars after every launch so I suspect not! There's a definite change in tactics from Porsche though. Imagine that actually being able to buy a car that a company produces. Whatever next?
Porsche just don't know when to stop, people will only take so much before they come to the conclusion 'Porsche are taking the piss'. Mind you the cult is quite strong.

Cheib

23,286 posts

176 months

Thursday 24th October 2019
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Yidwann said:
W111AAM said:
Anyone seen Tom Hartley Jnr Instagram story last night. He's offering a 2019 Ferrari GTC V12, 300 miles on the clock, big spec, nice colour combo for £100k below list. Wow.
I saw that too... pretty incredible.... I'm sure these guys have it figured out, but if they are holding onto stock thats also taking it hit, you'd think he'd be more worried.
Chris Harris posted a bit on Twitter a couple of weeks ago about how he heard some stories from people in the trade etc about the current state of the market and then followed up and said he’d nearly bought a new 812 and glad he hadn’t. He didn’t say it directly but the inference was there were some very cheap cars around.



Taffy66

5,964 posts

103 months

Thursday 24th October 2019
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Personally i'm happy and consider myself very fortunate to be picking up my new GT3 RS WP next tuesday..Why do i say that.? Well its because if i wasn't then i'd be mightily tempted by a nice F12 at under £160K or alternatively a 600LT or Performante for a shade over.
I firmly believe that we are going to experience a prolonged global recession which will be difficult to get out of..My reasoning is that central banks have exhausted all avenues by huge money printing coupled with the last ten years fuelled solely by borrowing(government,corporate,personal) with artificially historic low rates.
I can't envisage any scenario in the medium term which will halt the continued drop in asset prices, especially luxury cars..All IMHO of course.

fakenews

452 posts

78 months

Thursday 24th October 2019
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Taffy66 said:
Personally i'm happy and consider myself very fortunate to be picking up my new GT3 RS WP next tuesday..Why do i say that.? Well its because if i wasn't then i'd be mightily tempted by a nice F12 at under £160K or alternatively a 600LT or Performante for a shade over.
I firmly believe that we are going to experience a prolonged global recession which will be difficult to get out of..My reasoning is that central banks have exhausted all avenues by huge money printing coupled with the last ten years fuelled solely by borrowing(government,corporate,personal) with artificially historic low rates.
I can't envisage any scenario in the medium term which will halt the continued drop in asset prices, especially luxury cars..All IMHO of course.
Agree with your post. Big question is where to put the money safely and enjoy it if you're not blowing it on a car! hehe

Yidwann

1,872 posts

211 months

Thursday 24th October 2019
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I did listen to the "Intelligence" podcast last week from the Economist and they were talking about whether Europe was heading into recession, it was a good listen, short and seemed pretty factual. The consensus seemed to be that were not going to head into a recession, but the rate of economic growth is going to continue to be very slow for some time to come.

Davey S2

13,097 posts

255 months

Thursday 24th October 2019
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WCZ said:
Yidwann said:
I saw that too... pretty incredible.... I'm sure these guys have it figured out, but if they are holding onto stock thats also taking it hit, you'd think he'd be more worried.
many bought a lusso to get a pista or simply because ferrari told them to, many didn't want the car
I know Andy74B bought a standard F12 which was sold very quickly (and coincidentally just before he got a TDF) and also bought a V12 Lusso which also didn't stay for long and he also has a Pista.

Matt Munson also had a Lusso but no idea if he still has it.

If you want the halo cars then you have to but the cooking versions first it seems.