Lag Time for Supercar Prices to adjust to Market Conditions
Discussion
We're all gonna catch it anyway so might as well crack on indeed the death rate is prob in the 0.1-0.2% range so much lower than any headline numbers you might read, many who have caught it were asymptomatic or only had mild symptoms...I'd worry many businesses will never recover from this and many will cease to exist.
Venturist said:
I’d agree. You already see people rapidly losing enthusiasm for the distancing and if the pubs were open, they would be getting custom I’m sure.
Hong Kong flu pandemic et al there was none of this current lockdown.Unfortunately many bars and pubs will now go bust.
China has exported a LOT of exotic viruses through the centuries.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Most doctors you speak to think it’ll have to wash through the general population because a vaccine is unlikely to arrive in time; so this is just about pace/two or three waves.The stats for people below 40 are very good; there are no guarantees in medicine but the reporting of much of this has been diabolical.
Ferruccio said:
Many firms already have their list of keepers and redundant ready.
Seems to me inevitable that the scheme will be extended or it’ll be absolute carnage in a number of sectors.
Lockdown may drive a productivity boom as technology leveraged at the expense of jobs. Ultimately, greater profits for business owners / supercar owners?
Add to this the wall of liquidity from central banks and the Q3 rebound could overshoot. Real assets the place to be?
Ferruccio said:
Cheib said:
Is that right ? Surely a dealer can open its doors with a skeleton staff initially and keep some staff on furlough ? Although in an industry where base salaries are not high and there’s a big commission element people will want to get working again...and certainly sales staff won’t want to be left on furlough if colleagues are back earning commission.
How long will the furlough scheme last?How long will they be protected from repossession by their landlord if they can’t pay the rent?
How long until the bank puts in a winding up order if they can’t meet payments?
More people in dealerships employed in service than sales; will they be able to get parts?
It seems to me that service will be their potential lifeline.
Asked the Head of Aftersales how they were doing it. “We can open because we’re a garage and we need to open back up”. He told me it was a group decision (Sytner). They reconfigured working practices etc to maintain safety.
Some of the well known specialist dealers like DK and THJ are operating and making sales. They’re obviously at the right end of the market....sell a small niumber of relatively unique cars a month and not having to do test drives etc to get deals done.
How the big glass box premium brand sales departments get back to business is hard to see...they all rely on volume more than some would admit but it’s a high touch sales model that gets someone to buy say a Portofino instead of a DB11.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Hopefully there will be something soon, a cocktail of medications perhaps, that at least keeps the worst effects of the virus at bay, even if we have to wait another 12 months or so for a generally available vaccine.I’m 42 so not in the ultra high risk group, but not super low either. I think the hospitalisation rate is ~5% for over 40s, and hospitalisations really aren’t good news. I guess the more simple question is - would you get on a plane if there was a 5% chance of you dying? I don’t think I would.
Edited by Durzel on Sunday 3rd May 01:19
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I'm afraid I think RSBandit may be on the money. Unfortunately we don't know the true mortality rate as we don't have an accurate denominator, we have no idea how many have actually been infected. But speaking from experience (I speak to folks with it daily), many folks who've had it have had very minor symptoms. 18% of the people who tested positive on the Diamond Princess had no symptoms at all (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1632).With respect to mortality in the young, yes it does happen, but most of them have been exposed to high viral load, they're mostly frontline health workers who have been caring for sick covid patients.
I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for a vaccine or an effective treatment. By the time they're available (if ever) it really is likely to be at least 12 months by which time the economy will be well knackered unless there's an acceptance that we need to carefully start to lift restrictions and accept the ongoing morbidity and mortality from the virus while protecting the very vulnerable as much as we can. As time goes by more and more of us will have encountered the virus and will be immune and able to get on with life, herd immunity will increase and it will gradually peter out.
I don't personally believe the UK is 'failing' any more than any other country. Yes, Germany has far less deaths than us, but almost the entire population remains susceptible to the virus and as soon as they start to lift their restrictions they will, sadly, start to catch us up.
Having a reliable antibody test might be helpful, but it needs to be *very* accurate if it's to be of any use. In a population where only 1% of people have had the disease, a serology test for coronavirus antibodies that has a false positive rate of just 5% will be wrong 5/6 times. From this tweet https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/12564771511355965...
I think the current media frenzy for testing for the disease is misguided. The test has a 30-40% false negative rate, i.e. lots of people who have the disease test negative. You can't base any kind of sensible advice on that! At the end of the day, if you're in the middle of a pandemic and you have symptoms, you simply have to assume you have the disease. If you don't have symptoms, sure, a positive test will have a benefit as you know to isolate, but negative tests on asymptomatic individuals are meaningless.
Durzel said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Hopefully there will be something soon, a cocktail of medications perhaps, that at least keeps the worst effects of the virus at bay, even if we have to wait another 12 months or so for a generally available vaccine.I’m 42 so not in the ultra high risk group, but not super low either. I think the hospitalisation rate is ~5% for over 40s, and hospitalisations really aren’t good news. I guess the more simple question is - would you get on a plane if there was a 5% chance of you dying? I don’t think I would.
Edited by Durzel on Sunday 3rd May 01:19
About 620,000 people died in the U.K. in 2018.
About 1,700 a day.
28,131 people have died of CV according to the official figure.
So equivalent to 16 days of normal deaths.
91% of those people had comorbidities that by Professor Neil Ferguson at Imperial’s modelling they would have died from in the next 9-12 months anyway.
Now how many additional deaths are being caused by the knock on impacts of lockdown and the economic deprivation that it will cause.
Just in relation to cancer the estimate is already 60,000.
I suspect that at the end of all this, whenever that is, but that time will come as it did with Spanish flu and Asian flu, the Swedes will look very, very sensible..........??
About 1,700 a day.
28,131 people have died of CV according to the official figure.
So equivalent to 16 days of normal deaths.
91% of those people had comorbidities that by Professor Neil Ferguson at Imperial’s modelling they would have died from in the next 9-12 months anyway.
Now how many additional deaths are being caused by the knock on impacts of lockdown and the economic deprivation that it will cause.
Just in relation to cancer the estimate is already 60,000.
I suspect that at the end of all this, whenever that is, but that time will come as it did with Spanish flu and Asian flu, the Swedes will look very, very sensible..........??
BobM said:
I'm afraid I think RSBandit may be on the money. Unfortunately we don't know the true mortality rate as we don't have an accurate denominator, we have no idea how many have actually been infected. But speaking from experience (I speak to folks with it daily), many folks who've had it have had very minor symptoms. 18% of the people who tested positive on the Diamond Princess had no symptoms at all (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1632).
With respect to mortality in the young, yes it does happen, but most of them have been exposed to high viral load, they're mostly frontline health workers who have been caring for sick covid patients.
I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for a vaccine or an effective treatment. By the time they're available (if ever) it really is likely to be at least 12 months by which time the economy will be well knackered unless there's an acceptance that we need to carefully start to lift restrictions and accept the ongoing morbidity and mortality from the virus while protecting the very vulnerable as much as we can. As time goes by more and more of us will have encountered the virus and will be immune and able to get on with life, herd immunity will increase and it will gradually peter out.
I don't personally believe the UK is 'failing' any more than any other country. Yes, Germany has far less deaths than us, but almost the entire population remains susceptible to the virus and as soon as they start to lift their restrictions they will, sadly, start to catch us up.
Having a reliable antibody test might be helpful, but it needs to be *very* accurate if it's to be of any use. In a population where only 1% of people have had the disease, a serology test for coronavirus antibodies that has a false positive rate of just 5% will be wrong 5/6 times. From this tweet https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/12564771511355965...
I think the current media frenzy for testing for the disease is misguided. The test has a 30-40% false negative rate, i.e. lots of people who have the disease test negative. You can't base any kind of sensible advice on that! At the end of the day, if you're in the middle of a pandemic and you have symptoms, you simply have to assume you have the disease. If you don't have symptoms, sure, a positive test will have a benefit as you know to isolate, but negative tests on asymptomatic individuals are meaningless.
Quoting a very sensible post. The only point I'd disagree with is the availability of a vaccine; there are >90 candidates in development now and the front-runners are already scaling up to billion dose scale before knowing the outcome of the current trials, This is right now, though admittedly will still only be enough to vaccinate at-risk groups.With respect to mortality in the young, yes it does happen, but most of them have been exposed to high viral load, they're mostly frontline health workers who have been caring for sick covid patients.
I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for a vaccine or an effective treatment. By the time they're available (if ever) it really is likely to be at least 12 months by which time the economy will be well knackered unless there's an acceptance that we need to carefully start to lift restrictions and accept the ongoing morbidity and mortality from the virus while protecting the very vulnerable as much as we can. As time goes by more and more of us will have encountered the virus and will be immune and able to get on with life, herd immunity will increase and it will gradually peter out.
I don't personally believe the UK is 'failing' any more than any other country. Yes, Germany has far less deaths than us, but almost the entire population remains susceptible to the virus and as soon as they start to lift their restrictions they will, sadly, start to catch us up.
Having a reliable antibody test might be helpful, but it needs to be *very* accurate if it's to be of any use. In a population where only 1% of people have had the disease, a serology test for coronavirus antibodies that has a false positive rate of just 5% will be wrong 5/6 times. From this tweet https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/12564771511355965...
I think the current media frenzy for testing for the disease is misguided. The test has a 30-40% false negative rate, i.e. lots of people who have the disease test negative. You can't base any kind of sensible advice on that! At the end of the day, if you're in the middle of a pandemic and you have symptoms, you simply have to assume you have the disease. If you don't have symptoms, sure, a positive test will have a benefit as you know to isolate, but negative tests on asymptomatic individuals are meaningless.
There are bound to be other surges in infection (estimated that 9% of infected people are responsible for 80% of the cases in countries where they track and trace), so the objective has to be balancing that while unlocking the economy
Ferruccio said:
About 620,000 people died in the U.K. in 2018.
About 1,700 a day.
28,131 people have died of CV according to the official figure.
So equivalent to 16 days of normal deaths.
91% of those people had comorbidities that by Professor Neil Ferguson at Imperial’s modelling they would have died from in the next 9-12 months anyway.
Now how many additional deaths are being caused by the knock on impacts of lockdown and the economic deprivation that it will cause.
Just in relation to cancer the estimate is already 60,000.
I suspect that at the end of all this, whenever that is, but that time will come as it did with Spanish flu and Asian flu, the Swedes will look very, very sensible..........??
Regardless of what happens, it will be impossible to fairly compare the response of different countries.About 1,700 a day.
28,131 people have died of CV according to the official figure.
So equivalent to 16 days of normal deaths.
91% of those people had comorbidities that by Professor Neil Ferguson at Imperial’s modelling they would have died from in the next 9-12 months anyway.
Now how many additional deaths are being caused by the knock on impacts of lockdown and the economic deprivation that it will cause.
Just in relation to cancer the estimate is already 60,000.
I suspect that at the end of all this, whenever that is, but that time will come as it did with Spanish flu and Asian flu, the Swedes will look very, very sensible..........??
All countries are different in so many ways with respect to infection rates, population densities, the way they socially interact/operate etc.
No one will be able to say “ country X got it right and we should’ve done the same” with a good degree of accuracy.
Ferruccio said:
Most doctors you speak to think it’ll have to wash through the general population because a vaccine is unlikely to arrive in time; so this is just about pace/two or three waves.
The stats for people below 40 are very good; there are no guarantees in medicine but the reporting of much of this has been diabolical.
The March models are hereThe stats for people below 40 are very good; there are no guarantees in medicine but the reporting of much of this has been diabolical.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/...
BobM said:
I'm afraid I think RSBandit may be on the money. Unfortunately we don't know the true mortality rate as we don't have an accurate denominator, we have no idea how many have actually been infected. But speaking from experience (I speak to folks with it daily), many folks who've had it have had very minor symptoms. 18% of the people who tested positive on the Diamond Princess had no symptoms at all (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1632).
I would be a little careful of asymptomatic cases, especially in the old. Over half had some kind of ground-glass opacities, something you would want to monitor!https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/ryct.2020200110
Ferruccio said:
About 620,000 people died in the U.K. in 2018.
About 1,700 a day.
28,131 people have died of CV according to the official figure.
So equivalent to 16 days of normal deaths.
91% of those people had comorbidities that by Professor Neil Ferguson at Imperial’s modelling they would have died from in the next 9-12 months anyway.
Now how many additional deaths are being caused by the knock on impacts of lockdown and the economic deprivation that it will cause.
Just in relation to cancer the estimate is already 60,000.
I suspect that at the end of all this, whenever that is, but that time will come as it did with Spanish flu and Asian flu, the Swedes will look very, very sensible..........??
Food for thought, but Sweden is far less densely populated than the UK. 10 million people vs. 66 million in twice our land mass. Population of London is circa 10 million and Stockholm is 1.6 million. I think it's very, very hard to directly compare the way countries are going about this.About 1,700 a day.
28,131 people have died of CV according to the official figure.
So equivalent to 16 days of normal deaths.
91% of those people had comorbidities that by Professor Neil Ferguson at Imperial’s modelling they would have died from in the next 9-12 months anyway.
Now how many additional deaths are being caused by the knock on impacts of lockdown and the economic deprivation that it will cause.
Just in relation to cancer the estimate is already 60,000.
I suspect that at the end of all this, whenever that is, but that time will come as it did with Spanish flu and Asian flu, the Swedes will look very, very sensible..........??
Ferruccio said:
About 620,000 people died in the U.K. in 2018.
About 1,700 a day.
28,131 people have died of CV according to the official figure.
So equivalent to 16 days of normal deaths.
91% of those people had comorbidities that by Professor Neil Ferguson at Imperial’s modelling they would have died from in the next 9-12 months anyway.
Now how many additional deaths are being caused by the knock on impacts of lockdown and the economic deprivation that it will cause.
Just in relation to cancer the estimate is already 60,000.
I suspect that at the end of all this, whenever that is, but that time will come as it did with Spanish flu and Asian flu, the Swedes will look very, very sensible..........??
That’s all true...but what we don’t know is how many people would have died if we’d carried on regardless....I think the answer could have been unpalatable. Certainly seems like we’ve had had people dying because they couldn’t get access to medical care.About 1,700 a day.
28,131 people have died of CV according to the official figure.
So equivalent to 16 days of normal deaths.
91% of those people had comorbidities that by Professor Neil Ferguson at Imperial’s modelling they would have died from in the next 9-12 months anyway.
Now how many additional deaths are being caused by the knock on impacts of lockdown and the economic deprivation that it will cause.
Just in relation to cancer the estimate is already 60,000.
I suspect that at the end of all this, whenever that is, but that time will come as it did with Spanish flu and Asian flu, the Swedes will look very, very sensible..........??
Comparing the UK or most other European countries to Sweden has its problems. Apart from Russia it has the lowest population density in Europe....its fifth biggest city is somewhere you have never heard of with a population of 100,000 people. It just doesn’t compare.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Well RSbandit is also probably right. For most people under the age of 60, the IFR is low, very low make that (~0.1%). Is that worth the risk compared to permanently hiding yourself away for over a year until a vaccine appears (and given the fatality rate of covid the vaccine will simply have to be tested to be safe to be worthwhile and that will take even more time) or hope that somehow somewhere someone finds an effective treatment that lessens the symptoms? Gassing Station | Supercar General | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff