Lag Time for Supercar Prices to adjust to Market Conditions
Discussion
Drl22 said:
Obviously this is not completely representative but I had a pub quiz on zoom last night with around 12 friends, only one of them is not working and he was actually made redundant before COVID all kicked off. They are all good earners as well so perhaps this impact everyone is talking about isn’t going to be quite as wide and deep as everyone is led to believe by the media. I also had a call with my financial advisor who is still very much expecting (some would say hoping but I believe he is better than that) a V shaped recovery. It’s just tax planning he is worried about as we go about repaying all of this free money.
This isn’t to say supercars wont take a hit, they will do for a short while as people put their finances back in order and feel secure again but the hit to jobs, and this sounds terrible, is going to be at the lower end of the pay scales.
I think we’ll paid professionals working in say finance/banking, law, accountancy will largely come out of this out unscathed. People in more creative industries where spending is say more discretionary or those that own SME’s are generally going to have a really hard time. This isn’t to say supercars wont take a hit, they will do for a short while as people put their finances back in order and feel secure again but the hit to jobs, and this sounds terrible, is going to be at the lower end of the pay scales.
My sister works in film production in NYC...she’s not working and not expecting to for six months so won’t be earning a penny. There are plenty of people around like that.
It’s actually people who were working in professional/relatively highly paid jobs like that who will potentially be hardest hit. Govt schemes aimed at the average worker, if you were earning say 3 or 4 times that even with mortgage holidays etc some tough decisions to make and the easiest one is not buying toys
For me as someone with a 599 who has been thinking about an F12 or 812 things have been put on hold, however when things start to normalise mine will have lost a % of X and the F12/812 will have lost a % of Y... and therefore man maths will rule once again...
Anyway, much more important things than prices to worry about. Hope everyone on here stays healthy and safe. GusB.
Anyway, much more important things than prices to worry about. Hope everyone on here stays healthy and safe. GusB.
Drl22 said:
Obviously this is not completely representative but I had a pub quiz on zoom last night with around 12 friends, only one of them is not working and he was actually made redundant before COVID all kicked off. They are all good earners as well so perhaps this impact everyone is talking about isn’t going to be quite as wide and deep as everyone is led to believe by the media. I also had a call with my financial advisor who is still very much expecting (some would say hoping but I believe he is better than that) a V shaped recovery. It’s just tax planning he is worried about as we go about repaying all of this free money.
This isn’t to say supercars wont take a hit, they will do for a short while as people put their finances back in order and feel secure again but the hit to jobs, and this sounds terrible, is going to be at the lower end of the pay scales.
It really does depend on how long 'lockdown' goes on for. In the UK at least, we're only just at 2 weeks which is nothing really, and if that's all it was, there would be little effect. This isn’t to say supercars wont take a hit, they will do for a short while as people put their finances back in order and feel secure again but the hit to jobs, and this sounds terrible, is going to be at the lower end of the pay scales.
But the magnitude of this situation (i.e. Huge) multiplied by the magnitude of the duration (TBC) could result in a huge effect seen across a whole spectrum.
It is (or could be) like the house of cards effect. Although supercar prices may not be directly effected (although I think they will be), it's the knock-on effect of other factors that will have most impact.
There will surely be potential buyers Who can no longer afford to buy, owners who can no longer afford to own / finance / maintain, and investors who need to cash out to cover lost income. I would anticipate some of the cars that have held steady for a few years now dropping maybe 25%ish. 360 Ferarri for £45k that sort of thing. Very expensive hobby those sorts of cars.
jakesmith said:
There will surely be potential buyers Who can no longer afford to buy, owners who can no longer afford to own / finance / maintain, and investors who need to cash out to cover lost income. I would anticipate some of the cars that have held steady for a few years now dropping maybe 25%ish. 360 Ferarri for £45k that sort of thing. Very expensive hobby those sorts of cars.
Well, let’s be honest, £45k for a 20 year old car that sold for £100k and which isn’t rare is still too much really.Edited by Lee Jones Jnr on Friday 10th April 19:52
Lee Jones Jnr said:
jakesmith said:
There will surely be potential buyers Who can no longer afford to buy, owners who can no longer afford to own / finance / maintain, and investors who need to cash out to cover lost income. I would anticipate some of the cars that have held steady for a few years now dropping maybe 25%ish. 360 Ferarri for £45k that sort of thing. Very expensive hobby those sorts of cars.
Well, let’s be honest, £45k for a 20 year old car that sold for £100k and which isn’t rare is still too much really.Edited by Lee Jones Jnr on Friday 10th April 19:52
jakesmith said:
Lee Jones Jnr said:
jakesmith said:
There will surely be potential buyers Who can no longer afford to buy, owners who can no longer afford to own / finance / maintain, and investors who need to cash out to cover lost income. I would anticipate some of the cars that have held steady for a few years now dropping maybe 25%ish. 360 Ferarri for £45k that sort of thing. Very expensive hobby those sorts of cars.
Well, let’s be honest, £45k for a 20 year old car that sold for £100k and which isn’t rare is still too much really.Edited by Lee Jones Jnr on Friday 10th April 19:52
Lee Jones Jnr said:
jakesmith said:
Lee Jones Jnr said:
jakesmith said:
There will surely be potential buyers Who can no longer afford to buy, owners who can no longer afford to own / finance / maintain, and investors who need to cash out to cover lost income. I would anticipate some of the cars that have held steady for a few years now dropping maybe 25%ish. 360 Ferarri for £45k that sort of thing. Very expensive hobby those sorts of cars.
Well, let’s be honest, £45k for a 20 year old car that sold for £100k and which isn’t rare is still too much really.Edited by Lee Jones Jnr on Friday 10th April 19:52
TBH the Russian roulette of death by virus made me realise how unpredictable life can be, and it’s too short to worry about a retirement you might not live to see.
As soon as we’re out of lockdown i’m buying an F12 regardless of where the market is or if it loses money. I might not be alive to worry about it’s value next year so YOLO.
As soon as we’re out of lockdown i’m buying an F12 regardless of where the market is or if it loses money. I might not be alive to worry about it’s value next year so YOLO.
sparta6 said:
Lee Jones Jnr said:
jakesmith said:
Lee Jones Jnr said:
jakesmith said:
There will surely be potential buyers Who can no longer afford to buy, owners who can no longer afford to own / finance / maintain, and investors who need to cash out to cover lost income. I would anticipate some of the cars that have held steady for a few years now dropping maybe 25%ish. 360 Ferarri for £45k that sort of thing. Very expensive hobby those sorts of cars.
Well, let’s be honest, £45k for a 20 year old car that sold for £100k and which isn’t rare is still too much really.Edited by Lee Jones Jnr on Friday 10th April 19:52
MisterBigglesworth said:
TBH the Russian roulette of death by virus made me realise how unpredictable life can be, and it’s too short to worry about a retirement you might not live to see.
As soon as we’re out of lockdown i’m buying an F12 regardless of where the market is or if it loses money. I might not be alive to worry about it’s value next year so YOLO.
That's the correct outlook !As soon as we’re out of lockdown i’m buying an F12 regardless of where the market is or if it loses money. I might not be alive to worry about it’s value next year so YOLO.
Chinese virus does not discriminate
Lee Jones Jnr said:
sparta6 said:
Lee Jones Jnr said:
jakesmith said:
Lee Jones Jnr said:
jakesmith said:
There will surely be potential buyers Who can no longer afford to buy, owners who can no longer afford to own / finance / maintain, and investors who need to cash out to cover lost income. I would anticipate some of the cars that have held steady for a few years now dropping maybe 25%ish. 360 Ferarri for £45k that sort of thing. Very expensive hobby those sorts of cars.
Well, let’s be honest, £45k for a 20 year old car that sold for £100k and which isn’t rare is still too much really.Edited by Lee Jones Jnr on Friday 10th April 19:52
Unfortunate times ahead for many.
Time will tell
northo said:
f1ten said:
This is the biggest global event we have ever seen in 90 yrs... Oecd says this is bigger than credit crunch of 08 which saw every single asset class get hammered...
Cheib said:
northo said:
f1ten said:
This is the biggest global event we have ever seen in 90 yrs... Oecd says this is bigger than credit crunch of 08 which saw every single asset class get hammered...
There won't be many 206 GT Dino's available even in a deep recession. Perhaps a few 246's will pop up.
GusB said:
For me as someone with a 599 who has been thinking about an F12 or 812 things have been put on hold, however when things start to normalise mine will have lost a % of X and the F12/812 will have lost a % of Y... and therefore man maths will rule once again...
Anyway, much more important things than prices to worry about. Hope everyone on here stays healthy and safe. GusB.
I’ve thinking along the same lines as you, if 812’s drop by a decent amount then I would be sorely tempted. Same with an Urus - at the moment both have quite large downside potentials.Anyway, much more important things than prices to worry about. Hope everyone on here stays healthy and safe. GusB.
sparta6 said:
Cheib said:
northo said:
f1ten said:
This is the biggest global event we have ever seen in 90 yrs... Oecd says this is bigger than credit crunch of 08 which saw every single asset class get hammered...
There won't be many 206 GT Dino's available even in a deep recession. Perhaps a few 246's will pop up.
Personally I think that classic cars that can be used and enjoyed will do better than a car that is so mileage sensitive or just worth so much money it can’t be enjoyed. The latter are really just investments and in the next two or three years the opportunity cost of having a lot of capital tied up in a car is probably as high as it’s been in a generation.
500 Miles said:
GusB said:
For me as someone with a 599 who has been thinking about an F12 or 812 things have been put on hold, however when things start to normalise mine will have lost a % of X and the F12/812 will have lost a % of Y... and therefore man maths will rule once again...
Anyway, much more important things than prices to worry about. Hope everyone on here stays healthy and safe. GusB.
I’ve thinking along the same lines as you, if 812’s drop by a decent amount then I would be sorely tempted. Same with an Urus - at the moment both have quite large downside potentials.Anyway, much more important things than prices to worry about. Hope everyone on here stays healthy and safe. GusB.
Gassing Station | Supercar General | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff