New Vantage?

[jonby]

Jon39 said:

Rob and Jonby,

Your comments about the vacant places.

I presume that you must have understood, who it was that was told to cancel their visit.


A keeper eh Jonby? A phrase said by many. Time will tell.
( I am allowed to say that. Still own my very first car. )

I've seen that a person on here was asked to cancel their visit and can understand why that might have been the case, but no idea what's behind the visit a poster mentioned where he was the only attendee ?

You are 100% spot on - it's dangerous to call something a keeper. But there was only one reason I sold my 'keeper' for this one, which is I thought it would be the very last iteration of a n/a V12, manual, soft top. Unless there's another, this one will be a keeper. Unless I change my mind :-). Or it simply becomes too valuable to turn down, but as I'll put reasonable miles on mine, that shouldn't become too big an issue

[RobDown]

On the subject of pricing. I think Andy Palmer said they were hedged on currency for 12 months or so.

So guessing we're naturally go to see some upwards price creep in the UK soon (as per Ferrari's recent move). And that's before any new post-Brexit tariffs

Not necessarily bad news for older cars holding their value of course

[V8V Pete]

Jon39 said:

chesby said:

Jon39 said:

Rob and Jonby,


A keeper eh Jonby? A phrase said by many. Time will tell.
( I am allowed to say that. Still own my very first car. )

But are you still with your first girlfriend?

Thank you for not asking how long I have owned the car. You are very polite.

OK I won't ask how long but I am going to ask what the car is that you've kept that long Jon.

[Jon39]

V8V Pete said:

OK I won't ask how long but I am going to ask what the car is that you've kept that long Jon.

Very clever Pete. I would expect nothing less from you.

Of course revealing the car, also reveals how young/old I am.
It is not as beautiful as an Aston Martin, but I am told very sought after. However, that is irrelevant when a car really is a keeper.
Has been in dry store for a while, but on my long to do list.

[V8V Pete]

Jon39 said:

V8V Pete said:

OK I won't ask how long but I am going to ask what the car is that you've kept that long Jon.

Very clever Pete. I would expect nothing less from you.

Of course revealing the car, also reveals how young/old I am.
It is not as beautiful as an Aston Martin, but I am told very sought after. However, that is irrelevant when a car really is a keeper.
Has been in dry store for a while, but on my long to do list.

I'm actually quite interested what the car is rather than how old you are Jon. I'm going to go with original Mini Cooper?

[Jon39]

V8V Pete said:

I'm actually quite interested what the car is rather than how old you are Jon. I'm going to go with original Mini Cooper?

I have just said you are clever.

People must think I post on here far too often.
In fact it is only during idle moments.
Since my last reply to you, I have taken a car load of garden waste to the tip.
Need a break now before the next task, refuelling the mower.
A beautiful day to be outside.

[HBradley]

As a guest of AM Reading, I was very fortunate to be invited to see it yesterday despite having just taking delivery of a DB9. The viewing was pretty much full & we were superbly hosted by AML throughout.
I particularly enjoyed the 'Speccing Session' afterwards which was great fun & had I been in the market (I declared the fact that I wasn't, upfront), I reckon I would have a stunning (IMHO obviously) spec for a new car in Ultramarine Black.
I know many will roll their eyes & say, 'Oh FFS just tell us what it's like'!! I for one agree that it's just a car after all, BUT there's a code of silence here which hasn't been broken & I really respect that, so I'm not going to break it.
That said, I absolutely love it, both inside & out & the figures are going to be a surprise (at least in one respect).
H

[kith]

As much as I am desperate to know more about this car, I think it's great that in this day and age there is still a sense of honouring the confidentiality request.

Surely the official 'public' reveal can't be far away?

[Nothingspecial]

HBradley said:

As a guest of AM Reading, I was very fortunate to be invited to see it yesterday despite having just taking delivery of a DB9. The viewing was pretty much full & we were superbly hosted by AML throughout.
I particularly enjoyed the 'Speccing Session' afterwards which was great fun & had I been in the market (I declared the fact that I wasn't, upfront), I reckon I would have a stunning (IMHO obviously) spec for a new car in Ultramarine Black.
I know many will roll their eyes & say, 'Oh FFS just tell us what it's like'!! I for one agree that it's just a car after all, BUT there's a code of silence here which hasn't been broken & I really respect that, so I'm not going to break it.
That said, I absolutely love it, both inside & out & the figures are going to be a surprise (at least in one respect).
H

Hi H, I was also a guest of AM Reading, (different day)....what a fantastic experience. Funny that you mentioned the interior, i absolutely loved it....was blown away to be honest.
Look forward to discussing (and lurking on this thread) the design, inside and out, when it's public knowledge

[Graze01]

its great to hear positive comments re the interior as that is the one aspect of the DB11 that really is not to my liking

really looking forward to the time I can see one in the flesh

and great that the protocol of not revealing details is being honoured

Graze

Edited by Graze01 on Monday 16th October 08:04

[Vantagefan]

CPBRI said:

RobDown said:

If the car is ready to show to prospective buyers why not "leak" some photos to the motoring press at this stage? Whet the appetite?

Agreed. Get so tired of the absolute secrecy. It's just a car. A car we want to buy. Show us a little something.

I guess they're trying to take the Apple approach and keep as much under wraps until unveiling as possible.

They have also only just launched the DB11 V8 and DB11 Volante, if they had leaked Vantage images that would have taken the shine (and PistonHeads limelight) away from those models. Launching a new car is a very fine art!

I think the best AML ever did was teasing the front and rear quarter of the One-77 at Frankfurt (or was it Geneva). But even that copped flack with people frustrated that it wasn't the whole car.

Teasing the audience builds conversation, interest and intrigue. It will be unveiled on launch day then people can switch from grizzling about how it's being launched to its design or specs

[RL17]

RobDown said:

On the subject of pricing. I think Andy Palmer said they were hedged on currency for 12 months or so.

So guessing we're naturally go to see some upwards price creep in the UK soon (as per Ferrari's recent move). And that's before any new post-Brexit tariffs

Not necessarily bad news for older cars holding their value of course

Ferrari costs (profit) in euro (or might report in US$) so UK revenues will be lower than previous for same sales when converted back.

AM should be benefitting as non-UK sales will be magnified in sterling terms and results as majority of costs in £. They've had big increase in average sale price per car with DB11 step up as well (before all the specials etc).

Twelve month rolling hedges just smooth out sharp changes but cost a little more in long run and are probably losing some FX benefits at the moment. So AM just need to worry about UK cost increases (labour etc) and should benefit from importers having to raise UK prices and selling into foreign markets more competitively.

[Jon39]

RL17 said:

RobDown said:

On the subject of pricing. I think Andy Palmer said they were hedged on currency for 12 months or so.

So guessing we're naturally go to see some upwards price creep in the UK soon (as per Ferrari's recent move). And that's before any new post-Brexit tariffs

Not necessarily bad news for older cars holding their value of course

Ferrari costs (profit) in euro (or might report in US$) so UK revenues will be lower than previous for same sales when converted back.

AM should be benefitting as non-UK sales will be magnified in sterling terms and results as majority of costs in £. They've had big increase in average sale price per car with DB11 step up as well (before all the specials etc).

Twelve month rolling hedges just smooth out sharp changes but cost a little more in long run and are probably losing some FX benefits at the moment. So AM just need to worry about UK cost increases (labour etc) and should benefit from importers having to raise UK prices and selling into foreign markets more competitively.

I know there are some bright people amongst Aston Martin owners, so apologies to those of you who already know all this.

EFA.

[AdamV12V]

Just had my invite for mid November so they are still happening, so perhaps some people are too eager in feeling they have had their noses pushed out.

I'm not even buying one, nor is there much chance of that either in the short-medium term - but I'm still keen to go see it having been given the offer.

[RL17]

Jon39 said:

RL17 said:

RobDown said:

On the subject of pricing. I think Andy Palmer said they were hedged on currency for 12 months or so.

So guessing we're naturally go to see some upwards price creep in the UK soon (as per Ferrari's recent move). And that's before any new post-Brexit tariffs

Not necessarily bad news for older cars holding their value of course

Ferrari costs (profit) in euro (or might report in US$) so UK revenues will be lower than previous for same sales when converted back.

AM should be benefitting as non-UK sales will be magnified in sterling terms and results as majority of costs in £. They've had big increase in average sale price per car with DB11 step up as well (before all the specials etc).

Twelve month rolling hedges just smooth out sharp changes but cost a little more in long run and are probably losing some FX benefits at the moment. So AM just need to worry about UK cost increases (labour etc) and should benefit from importers having to raise UK prices and selling into foreign markets more competitively.

I know there are some bright people amongst Aston Martin owners, so apologies to those of you who already know all this.

EFA.

thanks

it's possibly more worrying that it's all good news at moment re sales, currency and markets and getting a nice smooth ramp up in numbers before an IPO may be tricky when you rely on such low sales and new launches in a luxury market rather than hundreds of millions of repeat everyday purchases.

[Jon39]

RL17 said:

it's possibly more worrying that it's all good news at moment re sales, currency and markets and getting a nice smooth ramp up in numbers before an IPO may be tricky when you rely on such low sales and new launches in a luxury market rather than hundreds of millions of repeat everyday purchases.

Yes I agree, Reg.

You have probably read my occasional comments about so many new models being developed, which presumably must mean eating through cash resources. The £500 million (need to say that quickly for an occasionally profitable business) was rolled over recently, now I think with a repayment date of 2022.

I hope they succeed, but in my opinion, owing half a billion pounds creates a big risk.
I am also concerned (if it happens) about the years following an IPO. I do wonder if the talked about IPO, is really just a convenient way for the present investors to exit.
If you were following AML in the mid 2000s, you will know about the initial record sales success of the DB9 and the Vantage. Then suddenly in September 2007, the financial and business world changed. New car orders were being cancelled, and many employees at Gaydon were made redundant at Gaydon. Unit sales fell from 7,200 to about 3,800 (don't have the exact figure to hand).

There have of course historically been good times in the motor industry, but it is a notoriously difficult sector. Even the big boys have major problems, eg GM European sustained losses for about 10 years before giving up.

However, at present I am pleased to see Aston Martin enjoying successful and exciting times.

[RL17]

Jon39 said:

Yes I agree, Reg.

You have probably read my occasional comments about so many new models being developed, which presumably must mean eating through cash resources. The £500 million (need to say that quickly for an occasionally profitable business) was rolled over recently, now I think with a repayment date of 2022.

I hope they succeed, but in my opinion, owing half a billion pounds creates a big risk.
I am also concerned (if it happens) about the years following an IPO. I do wonder if the talked about IPO, is really just a convenient way for the present investors to exit.
If you were following AML in the mid 2000s, you will know about the initial record sales success of the DB9 and the Vantage. Then suddenly in September 2007, the financial and business world changed. New car orders were being cancelled, and many employees at Gaydon were made redundant at Gaydon. Unit sales fell from 7,200 to about 3,800 (don't have the exact figure to hand).

There have of course historically been good times in the motor industry, but it is a notoriously difficult sector. Even the big boys have major problems, eg GM European sustained losses for about 10 years before giving up.

However, at present I am pleased to see Aston Martin enjoying successful and exciting times.

Seen lots of corporate sales and purchases in past life and am a bit cynical on profits and profit trends before sales and exits (and also private equity interests) so hopefully a gradual public offering programme and long term view with stable management will prevail Jon.

Also the difficulty of forecasting surplusses in major currencies when low volume runs can easily run in supply/quality issues and delays probably means that some risks are delayed a bit but at quite a cost.

Hopefully the market positioning and foreign recognition of AM brand(s) means that a future dip can be a lot less severe as Ferrrari global sales over those years mentioned held up remarkably well.

[RobDown]

I was more thinking of the cost of the European imported components than the UK labour costs (engine, gearbox etc). Clearly some scope for higher margins on overseas sales to compensate for weaker margins on U.K. but will AML go down that route? I guess much will depend on whether the non-UK demand is there (cf the interview with AP where he talks about the limits to production)

[Jon39]

RL17 said:

Seen lots of corporate sales and purchases in past life and am a bit cynical on profits and profit trends before sales and exits (and also private equity interests) so hopefully a gradual public offering programme and long term view with stable management will prevail Jon.

Also the difficulty of forecasting surplusses in major currencies when low volume runs can easily run in supply/quality issues and delays probably means that some risks are delayed a bit but at quite a cost.

Hopefully the market positioning and foreign recognition of AM brand(s) means that a future dip can be a lot less severe as Ferrrari global sales over those years mentioned held up remarkably well.

( I hope our fellow PHers will forgive us talking about business. After all until launch, there is not much more we can say on the topic title. )


Agree with your points Reg.

I now have the unit sales numbers to hand.
2007 = 7,281 (Company record).
2009 = 3,875
A serious and sudden reduction.

The comments about Ferrari being less affected by that economic crisis than AML are interesting. I do not know anything about why that might be. I think back then, Aston said they exported about 70%, certainly significant, but perhaps an even greater proportion now.

I am mentioning the last recession, because I just feel it might be an external factor, that could cause an unfortunate upset for AML.
That enormous percentage sales fall of course involved expensive sports cars, a non-essential product. When the SUVs are in production, do you think their sales performance might be more resistant than sports cars, during an economic down turn?

Your comment about profit trends before sales, made me think of AO. That IPO did not fool me. The impression given seemed to be they were about to sell a white box, to most of the world's population. A few burnt fingers there then.

Edited by Jon39 on Monday 16th October 16:43

[RobDown]

RL17 said:

Hopefully the market positioning and foreign recognition of AM brand(s) means that a future dip can be a lot less severe as Ferrrari global sales over those years mentioned held up remarkably well.

We saw Ferrari's experience repeated across the luxury good space in the financial crisis; it seems if you have enough money for LVMH stuff pre-crisis then you had enough money during the crisis; it was only those lower down the food chain hat suffered

Maybe this is all part of APs desire to move the brand more upmarket and to expand its luxury connotations, maybe there's a defensive element to it?

Anyway it was good to see you (and the Vantage) on Saturday!

Rob