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JulianPH said:
HL call Aston "the world’s fastest-growing automotive brand". Surely this is a great big pile of crock from a regulated firm looking to earn from trading AM shares... Or are the number of units sold (historically) so low that the increase in recent years (on a percentage basis) really is that great?
Julian - chill out, you seem to be taking this far too personally 
Page 61 of the Registration document has a full breakdown of geographic sales by region. If AML hit their target for this year (c6.5k cars) that’s an 80% increase on 2015.
If they go on to meet their ultimate sales target (post St Athan) we’re looking at some 300% growth from 2015. No idea if that’s the Worlds fastest growing luxury car brand or not, but it’s certainly ambitious
Lots of interesting stuff in the reg. document for those with the time to read it.
But a couple of tit-bits; AM Works have a still to be announced 19 car continuation to be announced this year (DB4 Zagato?). Mid-engined supercar to be produced by 2022 but it will be preceded by a mid-engined special (think that’s ‘Son of Valkyrie’. And there’s another 19 car mainstream special to be announced sometime soon. No idea what that is
JulianPH said:
HL call Aston "the world’s fastest-growing automotive brand". Surely this is a great big pile of crock from a regulated firm looking to earn from trading AM shares... Or are the number of units sold (historically) so low that the increase in recent years (on a percentage basis) really is that great?
Yes, of course statistics can be used in imaginative ways.
In fact that HL reference might have originated from an Aston Martin press release.
Peak sales for Aston Martin was during the Ford ownership era. (From memory) about 7,200 just before the economic crash, then a steady decline until the 2017 increase (5,098) up from 3,687 in 2016.
As you know, IPOs need careful timing. As a financial man, this article will be of interest to you.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-05-24...
Man maths comes to mind. Development spending becomes an asset on the balance sheet, and reported profits increase. Fair enough, but the proportion involved does seem very stretched in comparison to other car manufacturers. I wonder how far the new investors will look into all this?
Not sure I will be throwing any money at the IPO simply because it doesnt seem to make a whole lot of sense to be going public just now.
I dont believe there is a whole lot wrong with aston martin other than the more recent drive into corporatism which is making the offering rather marmite instead of universally loved.
IPOs are essentially a mechanism for existing shareholders to cash out, so to speak, very profitably. What other justification is there for AM going public? The costs are huge, the ongoing costs are huge, the regulatory framework (of which I know little) is onerous. Bankers will also do very nicely and fair play to them (I suspect a few bankers are on here from the sizes of some car collections
).
If I had made my first ever profit then maybe some sort of IPO in 3 or 4 years when there is a decent track record of profitability to maximise the value, but going straight for it on day 2 of being profitable just stinks to me.
Adding in the expectations for sales growth despite the declining car market in the western economies, seems a little hopeful. I know theres the China thing, but in the real world we all know that China is only a gnats chuff away from financial meltdown too, then how about trade wars etc.
As I am an eternal cynic my money is on AM going for it now because the markets are chasing returns and investors buy into pipe dreams far too often. I hope they do well but I wont be betting on it.
I dont believe there is a whole lot wrong with aston martin other than the more recent drive into corporatism which is making the offering rather marmite instead of universally loved.
IPOs are essentially a mechanism for existing shareholders to cash out, so to speak, very profitably. What other justification is there for AM going public? The costs are huge, the ongoing costs are huge, the regulatory framework (of which I know little) is onerous. Bankers will also do very nicely and fair play to them (I suspect a few bankers are on here from the sizes of some car collections
).If I had made my first ever profit then maybe some sort of IPO in 3 or 4 years when there is a decent track record of profitability to maximise the value, but going straight for it on day 2 of being profitable just stinks to me.
Adding in the expectations for sales growth despite the declining car market in the western economies, seems a little hopeful. I know theres the China thing, but in the real world we all know that China is only a gnats chuff away from financial meltdown too, then how about trade wars etc.
As I am an eternal cynic my money is on AM going for it now because the markets are chasing returns and investors buy into pipe dreams far too often. I hope they do well but I wont be betting on it.
RobDown said:
The Registration document is available on the Corporate section of the Aston Martin website. Prospectus scheduled for Dec 20th
I would be interested to look through The Registration Document Rob, and have tried to find it, but without success.
If it is in the investors section of the corporate website, that requires a login.
Is there something simple which I have misunderstood?
I printed it off the website this afternoon so it is available. Note also that the FAQs flag that employees and customers will be able to participate in the IPO.
I thought "Andy Martin" performed well this morning (had to catch up with Today on the iPlayer as I was dropping kids at the tennis club stage).
We have yet to see the DBX but I think it is going to be a real revelation and I would be interested in one. The company's strategy to have EV full capability is also a strength particularly if it can shortly be coupled to a DBX concept. Also, I think the DBS is going to be a big seller halo car. Just the right trick - almost like the DB11 was a first attempt. So I would not be to worried about DB11 sales performance...
Exciting times, and very excited to see what happens next.
I thought "Andy Martin" performed well this morning (had to catch up with Today on the iPlayer as I was dropping kids at the tennis club stage).
We have yet to see the DBX but I think it is going to be a real revelation and I would be interested in one. The company's strategy to have EV full capability is also a strength particularly if it can shortly be coupled to a DBX concept. Also, I think the DBS is going to be a big seller halo car. Just the right trick - almost like the DB11 was a first attempt. So I would not be to worried about DB11 sales performance...
Exciting times, and very excited to see what happens next.
JulianPH said:
soofsayer said:
Jon39 said:
By their own admission they have no clue. Easy way to build a marketing list though.Jon39 said:
I would be interested to look through The Registration Document Rob, and have tried to find it, but without success.
If it is in the investors section of the corporate website, that requires a login.
Is there something simple which I have misunderstood?
I don’t think you need a log-in Jon. Try this link
https://amlcorp.blob.core.windows.net/default-stor...
“The Directors expect Aston Martin Lagonda's core range to be enhanced by the addition of approximately two special edition models per year”
“DB4 GT Continuation was launched in 2018 and further heritage specials are planned with a cadence of approximately one heritage special per year.”
which will stop them from becoming special. Crazy
“DB4 GT Continuation was launched in 2018 and further heritage specials are planned with a cadence of approximately one heritage special per year.”
which will stop them from becoming special. Crazy
It’s an interesting conundrum. The owners are trying to position AML as a luxury brand and valuation should follow the luxury goods peer group. However, at the end of the day it is a car manufacturer which will follow the exact same economic cycles as its peer group and that will be facing all the possible headwinds in terms of environmental legislation being thrown at the sector. I feel this IPO is about 2-3 years too late in the coming.
RobDown said:
I’ve just noticed in that quote that I’ve accidentally put Dec 20th when it should have been Sep 20th
I don’t think you need a log-in Jon. Try this link
https://amlcorp.blob.core.windows.net/default-stor...
I don’t think you need a log-in Jon. Try this link
https://amlcorp.blob.core.windows.net/default-stor...
Excellent.
Thank you Rob.
Some light reading for my coffee break this morning.
Cold said:
Where do the big money, small production run cars fit within the growth forecasts for the company? Negligible volume but big revenue generators or just a handy pocketful of cash that distract from the task of getting the volume sellers out the door?
I think it might be the second of your alternatives.
I read one of Andy Palmers 'interviews', where he indicated that even at about £2m each, the Valkyrie run of cars might not produce a profit. The development costs are obviously very high. I think he then went on to talk about the 'halo' aspect, because AML want to have a mid-engine car in the range and the Valkyrie will demonstrate a high standard of expertise in this new area for AM.
The current model introductions mean huge development costs (a large portion of which was put on the 2017 balance sheet as investment and not an expense on the P&L ie. profit in 2017), so cash clearly is needed. Think how much the total Valkyrie deposits must be. Helpful as an interest free loan.
Edited by Jon39 on Thursday 30th August 08:59
Mr Palmer's strategy is following a well proven path in retailing, especially for Luxury Brands.
The halo models bring publicity and kudos to the brand, even more so in the car industry, if they are ahead in the game.
The lime green Vantages, to showcase the new model, created more comment than if they had been in grey.
However any chance of ensuring AM's continuing success will obviously require a great deal of money to finance all of their exciting new plans.
In the luxury brand world this does not only require the product to be attractive but also a healthy economic environment in the areas that they wish too sell into.
The halo models bring publicity and kudos to the brand, even more so in the car industry, if they are ahead in the game.
The lime green Vantages, to showcase the new model, created more comment than if they had been in grey.
However any chance of ensuring AM's continuing success will obviously require a great deal of money to finance all of their exciting new plans.
In the luxury brand world this does not only require the product to be attractive but also a healthy economic environment in the areas that they wish too sell into.
AstonZagato said:
Without doing any research, I've got to imagine that Tesla makes AM's growth look pedestrian
Doesn't Tesla have a gigantic mountain of debt and are still to turn a profit? Also their Tweets are a bit worrying at the moment 
I had a go in one but at £90k in a mediocre interior I didn't get it, much as I loved the insane button!I'd love to drop a few grand in my favourite car company (were that possible) but, as an absolute amateur, the lack of performance in the DB9 replacement and the potentially worse performance for the Vantage replacement concerns me. The DBX looks great though and IF that has an EV capability or hybrid functionality and is priced within reach of FFRR/Porsche SUV Turbo buyers then it bodes well.
Too many 'if's' for a conservative 'burnt' tightarse like me - but then they are looking for millions not monkeys with peanuts and I wish them the very best with it
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