AML - Stock Market Listing

[RobDown]

Jon39 said:

In this instance Rob, it of course depends how wide the stated range might be, as to how much the initial value could vary.

There are not very many IPOs now, which are open to individual investors, compared to the 1980s / 1990s.
Then they tended always to have set prices before submitting the application(s), with the lack of demand risk being underwritten.
Occasionally an auction system was used, where investors applied at their chosen price per share. Above the strike price (set partly according to demand) you were allocated shares (often scaled back), but applications below the strike price were rejected. Therefore you could decide your own maximum price.

I would like to buy a tiny part of the AML business, but only after the IPO froth and excitement is over. I would not treat it as an investment holding though. Would be great if the purchase could be in certificated form (very old fashioned I know), but a framed broker statement would not look very good on the car house wall.


If I read the terms correctly you will be able to get a paper certificate, albeit probably a rather plain looking one unfortunately

I won’t comment on the range or indeed the valuation. But the process is no different to the “Tell Sid” IPOs you recall, and iirc every single one of those big govt backed sales priced at the top end of the range

If you don’t like the valuation at the top end of whatever range they come up with, don’t buy. Equally if the minimum size (£10k) doesn’t appeal, buy £100 in the secondary market

Edited by Jon39 on Monday 10th September 20:19

[dbs2000]

Jon39 said:

I would like to buy a tiny part of the AML business, but only after the IPO froth and excitement is over. I would not treat it as an investment holding though. Would be great if the purchase could be in certificated form (very old fashioned I know), but a framed broker statement would not look very good on the car house wall.

This. I can't foresee anything other than a bloodbath when the initial lock-in period expires if orders are nothing short of exceptional. Of course I hope I'm completely wrong and AM beat the initial valuation but it's a bit rich for me.

Edited by dbs2000 on Tuesday 11th September 11:30

[RL17]

Found e-mail, might be tempted if can free up some cash.

Main concern is the special additions froth topping up results - Bond DB5 ummmmm, and as Jon mentioned the 19 units must be another DB4 GT Zagato run, can't keep doing those though.

Seems to be a bet on the DBX (sector will be a bit crowded when eventually comes) and the new Vantage sales in two years plus.

Is there a management slice/incentive in the issue to tie in for next 3 years or so. (preferably 5 as that gets him past 60)? Was at Nissan a good time though.

[RobDown]

RL17 said:

Found e-mail, might be tempted if can free up some cash.

Main concern is the special additions froth topping up results - Bond DB5 ummmmm, and as Jon mentioned the 19 units must be another DB4 GT Zagato run, can't keep doing those though.

Seems to be a bet on the DBX (sector will be a bit crowded when eventually comes) and the new Vantage sales in two years plus.

Is there a management slice/incentive in the issue to tie in for next 3 years or so. (preferably 5 as that gets him past 60)? Was at Nissan a good time though.

Agree on the Heritage front, what do they do next (after the DB4 Zagato)? On Specials, I was interested to see the Ferrari expectations - 10k cars next year look like 2000 or so will be specials (mainly Pistas)!

[Jon39]

The shares will have a price between 1750p and 2250p.
This will give the Company a stock market value of between £4 billion and £5.1 billion.
Trading to begin on or about the 8th October.
25% of the shares are being sold.

Prospectus later today.

Edited by Jon39 on Thursday 20th September 08:03

[Cold]

Quick Reuters story fleshing the numbers out slightly: Reuters

[Jon39]

Upperworks said:

Don’t see what the big deal is. Worst case is you lose £50k on AM.

Plenty of us on here have lost a lot more than that on Astons already

A great post Ross.


The shares being sold in the IPO, are not newly issued shares.
In this instance, I hope they will be referred to as Pre-owned, and not just second hand ordinary shares.

[Jon39]

You should be able to access the IPO Prospectus from this webpage.

https://www.astonmartinlagonda.com/investors/ipo

Edited by Jon39 on Thursday 20th September 18:09

[RL17]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/09/20/as...

Potential CEO payout and 4 year tie in per Telegraph article. Is Ferrari cheap at moment?

[JB65]

Ferrari has been making year on year profits with a track record based valuation - AM not so much. IPO wishful thinking based on promises and relying on sentiment buyers...

[RobDown]

Ferrari took a bit of a pummelling as Marchionne (RiP) over-promised and now they’ve had to scale back targets. Oh and the SUV has been delayed by another year (which I guess is good for AML)

[dbs2000]

RL17 said:

Is Ferrari cheap at moment?

This is a weekly view of Ferrari over a few years. They broke down and out of what I'd say was their usual channel in June but it looks like they may be heading back into that pattern. So potentially not a bad buy at the moment.

[RobDown]

Charting is akin to black magic, you would have burnt at a stake three hundred years ago

[Jon39]

RL17 said:

Potential CEO payout and 4 year tie in ...

If the share price is high in 2022, then I would say, well deserved AP.

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Can anyone please help me with the historic P/E ratio calculation?

2017 net profit: £74.1m
Average number of shares: 3,285,891 (Aston Martin Holdings (UK) Limited)
Eps: 2,256p

In the new company (Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC) at admission there will be 229,521,199 shares in issue.
Therefore the 2017 EPS = 0.32p.

The historic P/E ratio (using the mid IPO price) would be 2000p divided by 0.32p = 6,250.
I know that the IPO valuation will be forward looking, but the historic figure can be a helpful starting point, for an investor to start getting a feel for a business.
6250 is ridiculously high, so where have I gone wrong?

Thanks.

Edited by Jon39 on Friday 21st September 19:01

[Westlondondriver]

I think the eps is £0.32 not 0.32p looking at your numbers. So P/E ratio is nearer 60 which is still high.

[Jon39]

Westlondondriver said:

I think the eps is £0.32 not 0.32p looking at your numbers. So P/E ratio is nearer 60 which is still high.

Thank you Westlondondriver.

At least when my maths is out, I realise something is not right, so not all brain cells lost yet.

AML have not made a profit forecast in the prospectus. I thought they would, with only a few months remaining in their 2018 financial year. Therefore the prospective P/E remains unknown.

[dbs2000]

RobDown said:

Charting is akin to black magic, you would have burnt at a stake three hundred years ago

Absolutely, cup and saucers, hanging men, channels, PSAR, RSI. Business fundamentals and growth potential for the win

[V12Manual]

GBP 22 million over four years? Sounds like a bargain frankly given what Dr Palmer is doing.

[Jon39]

Are you a preferred customer of Aston Martin?
Has anyone heard of the Henniker Club

My guess would be, it is for customers who do not currently own an Aston Martin (therefore not eligible to buy shares in the IPO), but who have paid deposits for multi-million pound Astons. That excludes me then. To use the well known quote, I would not want to be in a club, that accepts me as a member.

Extract from the prospectus;

5.1.1 Details of the Customer Offer

Only Eligible Customers are entitled to apply for Shares in the Customer Offer. Eligible Customers are persons who are: (a) owners of an Aston Martin car and were detailed on Aston Martin Lagonda’s CRM system as at 24 August 2018; and/or (b) members of the Aston Martin Owners Club ("AMOC") and whom confirmed to AMOC that they wished to receive further information on the Offer by 12 p.m. (midday) (U.K.time) on Monday 17 September 2018; and (c) resident in the U.K.

Preferred Customers are those Eligible Customers who are also, as at 24 August 2018, members of Aston Martin Lagonda's Henniker Club.

Pursuant to the Customer Offer, each Eligible Customer is entitled to apply to purchase Shares up to a maximum of £50,000 at the Offer Price, save in the case of Preferred Customers, who are entitled to apply to purchase Shares up to a maximum of £99,999 at the Offer Price.

Edited by Jon39 on Monday 24th September 14:41

[JB65]

V12Manual said:

GBP 22 million over four years? Sounds like a bargain frankly given what Dr Palmer is doing.

:-) if only we were rewarded for the promises we made