AML - Stock Market Listing
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Yes I agree there certainly seemed to be an agenda to drive the price down in the last week......
and I certainly would not be buying now at over 50p because there could be a flood of new shares on the market next week from institutions that thought they might get a bargain and didn't.
So I expect the price to sink back to around 50p , but no one likes to sell at a loss so hopefully no lower.
and I certainly would not be buying now at over 50p because there could be a flood of new shares on the market next week from institutions that thought they might get a bargain and didn't.
So I expect the price to sink back to around 50p , but no one likes to sell at a loss so hopefully no lower.
Preference will be given to employees. Wow...thanks for that! As if employees don’t already have enough Aston Martin exposure through their job security, or lack thereof, they now have the ‘opportunity’ to increase their risk by investing their savings.
Stroll’s 25% has been acquired relatively cheaply so he’s prepared to risk more to try to save his investments. The longer term shareholders have already lost their shirts but maybe continue to invest to prevent Stroll diluting them on the cheap.
Stroll’s 25% has been acquired relatively cheaply so he’s prepared to risk more to try to save his investments. The longer term shareholders have already lost their shirts but maybe continue to invest to prevent Stroll diluting them on the cheap.
First half 2020 results are due to be announced tomorrow.
You have to laugh.
'Analysts at Deutsche Bank have forecast a drop in wholesale volumes on the back of dealer closures, late reopening and also inventory clearing.'
"Is there a 3 year old boy in the audience?" Groucho Marx.
A whole business shuts down, what else can you expect.
I will be looking for cash flow figures. Enormous sums have been raised this year, so how much has been spent.
There is bound to be positive talk about the future, but the key of course will be the actual DBX sales figures through next year and beyond. Hopefully it becomes a winner.
Valkyrie deliveries will bring in considerable revenue, but think I saw mention of a further delay. There was a rumour about the gearbox not taking full power. Hope that is nonsense.
Obviously the complete halt due to COVID-19, has made the H1 sales numbers fairly meaningless, but for anyone interested in more information about models, a new split has been introduced.
GT = DB11 and DBSS.
Sports = Vantage.
( click/tap and then click/tap again to see the chart full size )
Edited by Jon39 on Wednesday 29th July 09:41
The (wholesale) vehicle numbers for H1 2020, appear to show;
The number of DB11 + DBSS = more than twice the number of Vantages.
There must be questions being asked about that, considering the Vantage is supposed to be the entry level core model.
Perhaps the explanation is that dealers were not reordering Vantages, due to their overstocking.
Jon39 said:
The (wholesale) vehicle numbers for H1 2020, appear to show;
The number of DB11 + DBSS = more than twice the number of Vantages.
There must be questions being asked about that, considering the Vantage is supposed to be the entry level core model.
Perhaps the explanation is that dealers were not reordering Vantages, due to their overstocking.
Edited by W12GT on Wednesday 29th July 19:03
W12GT said:
That’s because the new Vantage is hideous to look at from the front views and looks so cheap. I think reselling these will be a nightmare in the future.
I looked at used inventory here in the US and it appears 19's & 20's are listing for 40% off their msrp's when new. Very low mileage. That's a big hit. Apparently AML also cooked cocked up the 2019 figures 
"Accounting errors have been blamed for an understatement of Aston Martin’s 2019 losses by £15.3 million.
"Revisions to the British sports car manufacturer’s reported accounts – including payments to US dealers which had previously booked later than they should – mean that losses in the period amounted to £70.9m rather than the £55.6m previously stated.
https://www.am-online.com/news/manufacturer/2020/0...
"Accounting errors have been blamed for an understatement of Aston Martin’s 2019 losses by £15.3 million.
"Revisions to the British sports car manufacturer’s reported accounts – including payments to US dealers which had previously booked later than they should – mean that losses in the period amounted to £70.9m rather than the £55.6m previously stated.
https://www.am-online.com/news/manufacturer/2020/0...
silentbrown said:
Apparently AML also cooked cocked up the 2019 figures
"Accounting errors have been blamed for an understatement of Aston Martin’s 2019 losses by £15.3 million.
"Revisions to the British sports car manufacturer’s reported accounts – including payments to US dealers which had previously booked later than they should – mean that losses in the period amounted to £70.9m rather than the £55.6m previously stated.
https://www.am-online.com/news/manufacturer/2020/0...
Wow. That’s a significant issue. Shares will be hit hard tomorrow. Doesn’t look good for the future at this point in time."Accounting errors have been blamed for an understatement of Aston Martin’s 2019 losses by £15.3 million.
"Revisions to the British sports car manufacturer’s reported accounts – including payments to US dealers which had previously booked later than they should – mean that losses in the period amounted to £70.9m rather than the £55.6m previously stated.
https://www.am-online.com/news/manufacturer/2020/0...
DBX is just way too much money to be a sales hit.
The cheapest Vantage on AML is 90k which is 20 months old. A basic spec car started at 121k. It has a some options so probably £130k. Would have px’d at no more than £80k, so that’s 50k drop in 20months. That means it’s retained 61.5% of its value. That isn’t good!
Edited by W12GT on Wednesday 29th July 20:09
Edited by W12GT on Thursday 30th July 08:09
W12GT said:
DBX is just way too much money to be a sales hit.
Yep.As was/is the new Vantage.
I was at the dealership today and they had a few nearly new vantages sitting about. Someone came in to collect their new car, a new vantage (no idea if it was new or used but I presume the latter). The gentleman and his partner were mid/late forties, if not older i would say. Another gentleman was having his new vantage serviced and was well into retirement age.
So where are all those young youtubers?
They had a demo/pace car new vantage round the back, all black and I must admit it did look lovely, but I think it listed for over £150k, and the sales guy said it would be nearer £100k when it is gets to be sold. Thats eyewatering depreciation.
Also they have a very nice db11 amr at £112k, which was £190k ish less than 2 years ago. I am thinking of buying it, the GFV at 4 years is £81k. Its bonkers.
I have said it before, not only is the styling ‘polarising’, the depreciation curve on these cars makes it near impossible to sell to the ‘have now, pay later’ customers, and thats why they cant shift them without manufacturer backed deals. DBX is going to be painful unless you have very deep pockets.
W12GT said:
Wow. That’s a significant issue. Shares will be hit hard tomorrow. Doesn’t look good for the future at this point in time.
Stock markets react to news instantly these days, so that announcement won't be relevant during trading tomorrow. It is an issue of the timing of an accounting entry, not money gone missing.
A more interesting / comical adjustment, was when AML sold intellectual property rights and tooling to another business. About £20 million was involved and shown in the accounts as revenue. Coincidentally, that roughly equalled the whole pre-tax profit of the period. Some time later, it became apparent that the buyer was never going to pay. AML had to do an accounting reversal. It was real money that time, but quite why money can be booked as revenue before it has been received, is a mystery to me. That buyer was supposed to pay in instalments, so even if they had paid, the full amount would not have been received all at once. That all happened shortly before the IPO. Perhaps just a pure coincidence!
Edited by Jon39 on Friday 31st July 12:45
JohnG1 said:
Dreadnought (V600)?
Vantage V12S sold to R-Reforged to make some Zagato?
I wonder how many v600 were made beyond the original?
There were 7 coupe and 7 roadster V600’s in total, as agreed with the owner of the project. Not sure if they were all built - perhaps someone knows??Vantage V12S sold to R-Reforged to make some Zagato?
I wonder how many v600 were made beyond the original?
From a positive point of view the DB11 and DBS are selling in a difficult environment, albeit in limited numbers. The Vantage numbers are a total disaster however and reflect the views articulated on here many times over.
They aren’t selling anywhere across the globe when you would expect them to outsell the more premium product many times over. With little secondary market demand to drive the primary sales this isn’t going to change unless the car changes.
If I was Stroll I’d be rapidly revisiting the Vantage aesthetics and relaunching the car. It needs to go beyond the half arsed attempt to reintroduce the Aston grill to bring back the desirability. The ‘Hunter’ hasn’t worked so time to move on. At the same time bin the naff marketing agency that came up with the ‘Hunter’.
Ironically in 20 years time the current Vantage will probably have increased value to to scarcity like the 80s Zagatos even though they too are ugly as anything.
They aren’t selling anywhere across the globe when you would expect them to outsell the more premium product many times over. With little secondary market demand to drive the primary sales this isn’t going to change unless the car changes.
If I was Stroll I’d be rapidly revisiting the Vantage aesthetics and relaunching the car. It needs to go beyond the half arsed attempt to reintroduce the Aston grill to bring back the desirability. The ‘Hunter’ hasn’t worked so time to move on. At the same time bin the naff marketing agency that came up with the ‘Hunter’.
Ironically in 20 years time the current Vantage will probably have increased value to to scarcity like the 80s Zagatos even though they too are ugly as anything.
IanV12VSRs said:
JohnG1 said:
Dreadnought (V600)?
Vantage V12S sold to R-Reforged to make some Zagato?
I wonder how many v600 were made beyond the original?
There were 7 coupe and 7 roadster V600’s in total, as agreed with the owner of the project. Not sure if they were all built - perhaps someone knows??Vantage V12S sold to R-Reforged to make some Zagato?
I wonder how many v600 were made beyond the original?
Could have been a very embarrassing phone call...
soofsayer said:
W12GT said:
DBX is just way too much money to be a sales hit.
Yep.As was/is the new Vantage.
I was at the dealership today and they had a few nearly new vantages sitting about. Someone came in to collect their new car, a new vantage (no idea if it was new or used but I presume the latter). The gentleman and his partner were mid/late forties, if not older i would say. Another gentleman was having his new vantage serviced and was well into retirement age.
So where are all those young youtubers?
They had a demo/pace car new vantage round the back, all black and I must admit it did look lovely, but I think it listed for over £150k, and the sales guy said it would be nearer £100k when it is gets to be sold. Thats eyewatering depreciation.
Also they have a very nice db11 amr at £112k, which was £190k ish less than 2 years ago. I am thinking of buying it, the GFV at 4 years is £81k. Its bonkers.
I have said it before, not only is the styling ‘polarising’, the depreciation curve on these cars makes it near impossible to sell to the ‘have now, pay later’ customers, and thats why they cant shift them without manufacturer backed deals. DBX is going to be painful unless you have very deep pockets.
At the moment residual values of everything have tumbled (just before dealers were allowed to re-open, there was a market wide adjustment to residuals). It's not just Aston Martin affected though, every car maker is looking at uglier finance packages than they were in March. Take a 2017 488 GTB for example - listed at £172k, and a GFV in 3 years of £90k. Ferrari's have tended to hold their money pretty well, and after 3 years old, generally don't lose much value. At the moment though, finance houses have turned the tables and instead of offering over optimistic GFV's, they've taken a very pessimistic view - it's a double edged sword really; on one hand, if you're happy with the monthlies going up from what they were in March, you stand a chance of having some equity in the car at the end of term.
Recent years have seen PCP's with unrealistic GFV's - which meant bigger deposits on your next car to cancel the negative from having a deal designed purely for low monthlies. The landscape has changed since March, and it's surprising would be buyers, but not necessarily putting them off. Aston dealers have been flat out since their first day back, it's some positive news, and the next quarter or half year sales should remedy some of yesterday's doom and gloom.
There's very few 'young YouTubers' with Astons - the last gen cars don't appeal to many of them (well, they might, but not their audience - remember that they buy cars as much for audience approval and entertainment, it's a business asset after all), and when Aston handed a Vantage to Mr JWW for an 'ambassador' role, he proceeded to explain how s
t the gearbox was and describe it as a GT car not a sports car, which might have put off Aston's comms team from handing out them out for long term loaners. He of course just yesterday procured a manual DBS coupe. Whether it's his or his dad's, who knows, but it might get him back in bed with the marque, time will tell. He's all over the Valkyrie and Valhalla like a horny teenager, so must be eyeing one of those up (and probably complain about the gearbox some more - he'd have a DCT in his beard trimmer if it was possible).Paul Wallace (Supercars of London) picked up a new Vantage about 9 months ago, but little's seen of it - I cant recall if he'd already got rid of it, or if it was a planned loan deal with the dealer. I've not watched any of his videos for a while though.
The AMR you mention, buy it, you wont regret it - they're superb, and that one's a lovely spec, and the price is a bargain for what it is
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