AML - Stock Market Listing

AML - Stock Market Listing

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anonymous-user

55 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
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nite_narc said:
Good to finally see more detailed market share data and confirms previous suspicions that the UK is not the biggest market for AML. Wonder how many on PH will react to the news that their opinion doesn't speak for the majority of the customer base?
I think it's accepted already that the UK isn't the primary market. The 'problem' has been the deviation from subtle styling, that was adjudged to have left the UK market behind and alienated it. In time that will be resolved - be it greater acceptance of the design language shift, or sufficient mid-life face lifts to appeal to a more purist consumer.

The surprising thing about this announcement is that from skimming through the editorial thread and this one, most Aston enthusiasts i.e. people who actually own one or several, seem happier about the move than those on the outside looking in, claiming it's the dawn of Mercedes cars sporting Aston badges and it's the death of the company.

Of course half the reason for that is there's a lot of knuckle-draggers who describe a DBX as being a Mercedes GLC with an Aston badge, or the Vantage being an AMG GT in a different dress, because they're unaware or ignorant to the fact that Aston Martin has always relied on buying in parts or technology from elsewhere. Granted, that hadn't always been the bulk of an engine - but the interim step to use the M177 V8 has opened the door to a lot of tasty technology that Aston didn't have a hope of developing its own, equivalent version of on the cheap. That V8 wont be between the suspension turrets forever - I appreciate it's a deal breaker for many, but it was a stepping stone that's been pivotal in keeping the car maker relevant and not falling further behind.

The new agreement paves the way to get the latest equipment into the cars - particularly the hybrid technology which the company desperately needed. As far as I know, the TM01 V6 isn't being canned, and instead now has the opportunity to come to market in the series production cars with hybrid assistance (instead of only being hybrid equipped in the Valhalla). That's not an immediate thing, we're still some years away, but the hybrid tech was the missing link in the chain that has now been found.

Current MBUX would replace the COMAND system, and perhaps finally those in desperate need of a touch screen that's difficult to use while driving, will be content laugh

The difference this time around, is the company has the time, resources and money to integrate it all and make the interiors look how they should.

oilit

2,634 posts

179 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
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NFC 85 Vette said:
I think it's accepted already that the UK isn't the primary market. The 'problem' has been the deviation from subtle styling, that was adjudged to have left the UK market behind and alienated it. In time that will be resolved - be it greater acceptance of the design language shift, or sufficient mid-life face lifts to appeal to a more purist consumer.

The surprising thing about this announcement is that from skimming through the editorial thread and this one, most Aston enthusiasts i.e. people who actually own one or several, seem happier about the move than those on the outside looking in, claiming it's the dawn of Mercedes cars sporting Aston badges and it's the death of the company.

Of course half the reason for that is there's a lot of knuckle-draggers who describe a DBX as being a Mercedes GLC with an Aston badge, or the Vantage being an AMG GT in a different dress, because they're unaware or ignorant to the fact that Aston Martin has always relied on buying in parts or technology from elsewhere. Granted, that hadn't always been the bulk of an engine - but the interim step to use the M177 V8 has opened the door to a lot of tasty technology that Aston didn't have a hope of developing its own, equivalent version of on the cheap. That V8 wont be between the suspension turrets forever - I appreciate it's a deal breaker for many, but it was a stepping stone that's been pivotal in keeping the car maker relevant and not falling further behind.

The new agreement paves the way to get the latest equipment into the cars - particularly the hybrid technology which the company desperately needed. As far as I know, the TM01 V6 isn't being canned, and instead now has the opportunity to come to market in the series production cars with hybrid assistance (instead of only being hybrid equipped in the Valhalla). That's not an immediate thing, we're still some years away, but the hybrid tech was the missing link in the chain that has now been found.

Current MBUX would replace the COMAND system, and perhaps finally those in desperate need of a touch screen that's difficult to use while driving, will be content laugh

The difference this time around, is the company has the time, resources and money to integrate it all and make the interiors look how they should.
Great input.

Jon39

Original Poster:

12,856 posts

144 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all

nite_narc said:
Having defended the likelihood of a Mercedes buy-in to AML for a while, and despite the many opposing comments on this forum (some more eloquently put than others), I'm enjoying this moment.

When thie second AstonMartin / Mercedes agreement has been completed,
how much money will Mercedes-Benz have invested in Aston Martin?


silentbrown

8,867 posts

117 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
oilit said:
Also the DBx volume is a mile off the AP stated goal of 4k units per annum - let's hope that is reflecting production ramp challenges and not demand problems...
That's just the wholesale figure. The retail figures don't seem to be shown?

Jon39

Original Poster:

12,856 posts

144 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all

silentbrown said:
oilit said:
Also the DBx volume is a mile off the AP stated goal of 4k units per annum - let's hope that is reflecting production ramp challenges and not demand problems...
That's just the wholesale figure. The retail figures don't seem to be shown?

For the first quarter of production of a new model, the retail sales cannot be higher than wholesale.


silentbrown

8,867 posts

117 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
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Jon39 said:

For the first quarter of production of a new model, the retail sales cannot be higher than wholesale.
Thanks. I'd confused myself about what a retail sale meant, thinking it was a direct sale from AML to a customer with no intermediary.

CB07

525 posts

234 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
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Stock market likes it so far.. up 7.5%

cardigankid

8,849 posts

213 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
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Can I translate, as I see it?

Somebody said that InvestIndustrial's business model is legal, which is true, but basically it is asset stripping. Unfortunately they have now also got their claws into Morgan and we will see where that ends.

Stroll recognises that the only way to stabilise AML financially is to get Daimler more deeply involved, which they have done, both with the increased shareholding and the fact that Moers has effectively been seconded to AML. I applaud that, though clearly many are wary. Daimler have paid nothing in actual cash. Permian and Zelon, whoever they are, add to the credibility. They have still the billion of debt, which was the legacy of InvestIndustrial, and by a range of corporate manoeuvres and convertible bonds, they hope to kick the can down the road far enough to deal with it.

Big Ry

1,678 posts

120 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Morning all

Like it or not, I suspect this news should be taken as confirmation that Aston Martin will survive long term, even if that might potentially mean that MB continue to take larger and larger stakes.

I just want to see the brand survive and continue making great vehicles. Times are changing and the V12 and V8 purists will have to come to accept that at some point (yes, me included). There's no use building a car that cannot be legally sold in some markets due to emissions etc, or that as a result of those emissions, the car is prohibitively expensive (4L+ in China I believe).

Go with the best available tech (can't fault MB on that front) and make a world beating car out of it, that's the way to get out of trouble long term I reckon.

Just my humble opinion biggrin

Jon39

Original Poster:

12,856 posts

144 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all

silentbrown said:
Jon39 said:
For the first quarter of production of a new model, the retail sales cannot be higher than wholesale.
Thanks. I'd confused myself about what a retail sale meant, thinking it was a direct sale from AML to a customer with no intermediary.

AML began publishing retail figures at the time when dealers were overstocked.

It did seem odd, because those retail figures were sales by dealers, and in a way, had nothing directly to do with AML.
Having previously 'stuffed' the dealers with stock though (made AML sales look better), retail sales then did affect AML, because dealers did not want to order more stock.

Presumably AML would obtain the retail figures, when a car has the customer warranty registered for the first time.


Jon39

Original Poster:

12,856 posts

144 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all

cardigankid said:
Somebody said that InvestIndustrial's business model is legal, which is true, but basically it is asset stripping. Unfortunately they have now also got their claws into Morgan and we will see where that ends.

That was me.

I do agree with you, but I must have been too polite when I posted. _ wink




Minglar

1,238 posts

124 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Big Ry said:
Morning all

Like it or not, I suspect this news should be taken as confirmation that Aston Martin will survive long term, even if that might potentially mean that MB continue to take larger and larger stakes.

I just want to see the brand survive and continue making great vehicles. Times are changing and the V12 and V8 purists will have to come to accept that at some point (yes, me included). There's no use building a car that cannot be legally sold in some markets due to emissions etc, or that as a result of those emissions, the car is prohibitively expensive (4L+ in China I believe).

Go with the best available tech (can't fault MB on that front) and make a world beating car out of it, that's the way to get out of trouble long term I reckon.

Just my humble opinion biggrin
Totally agree Big Ry

Many saw this coming, especially after APs exit. I have made comments on here in the past suggesting this may happen, but many thought the product overlap would preclude it, and that MB had enough problems of their own to deal with. Sadly, it’s a harsh reality of the motor industry that companies such as AM ultimately need a large parent company to be a backstop. It’s no bad thing as it will preserve the name, and others such as Rolls Royce, Bentley, Lamborghini etc are all in a better position since they were swallowed up. Sure, it will not go down well with the “purists” but the motoring world is changing. Cars such as ours, NA manual V12s, will ultimately cease to be made by any manufacturer, and eventually may be banned for use on public roads. I would rather see MB take the helm, than the AM name disappear and be consigned to history. I can’t really understand why anyone would think differently in the current environment.

ETA

It’s 20% now, but I suspect eventually, maybe in a few years, they will take full control.

Best Regards

Minglar


Edited by Minglar on Wednesday 28th October 10:09


Edited by Minglar on Wednesday 28th October 10:27

alscar

4,178 posts

214 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Stock market got over initial excitement and sp up 1p.
I guess everyone could see this coming anyway.
I’ll suggest majority control by MB by the start of 2023.
Just need to make the engines sound much better with turbos in mind which might be the really tricky bit.

Jon39

Original Poster:

12,856 posts

144 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all

alscar said:
I’ll suggest majority control by MB by the start of 2023.

Do you not think we should believe this statement, published by Daimler yesterday?
Admittedly they did not mention a date.


'Access to these technologies will be granted in exchange for new shares in Aston Martin, issued in several stages over the next 3 years, up to a total value of GBP 286 million. Mercedes-Benz AG’s current shareholding stands at 2.6% of Aston Martin’s common equity. The new shares to be issued will take Mercedes-Benz AG’s holding up to a maximum of no more than 20.0%. Mercedes-Benz AG has no intention to increase its holding in Aston Martin beyond this level.'

JohnG1

3,472 posts

206 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Jon39 said:

alscar said:
I’ll suggest majority control by MB by the start of 2023.

Do you not think we should believe this statement, published by Daimler yesterday?
Admittedly they did not mention a date.


'Access to these technologies will be granted in exchange for new shares in Aston Martin, issued in several stages over the next 3 years, up to a total value of GBP 286 million. Mercedes-Benz AG’s current shareholding stands at 2.6% of Aston Martin’s common equity. The new shares to be issued will take Mercedes-Benz AG’s holding up to a maximum of no more than 20.0%. Mercedes-Benz AG has no intention to increase its holding in Aston Martin beyond this level.'
That statement about "no intention" is in order to satisfy PTM rules. If they did intend to take more than 20% they'd have to make declarations and at some point make a takeover. A few years since I studied all this, but it's just legalese. It does not prevent Mercedes-Benz changing their mind.


alscar

4,178 posts

214 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Jon , John beat me to a reply - which from me would have been a “ No “.
They will change their minds imho but I’m sure my opinion is worthless.
At least briefly today my paper loss improved a bit.

Jon39

Original Poster:

12,856 posts

144 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Minglar said:
Many saw this coming, especially after APs exit. I have made comments on here in the past suggesting this may happen, but many thought the product overlap would preclude it, and that MB had enough problems of their own to deal with. Sadly, it’s a harsh reality of the motor industry that companies such as AM ultimately need a large parent company to be a backstop.

I don't object to Daimler eventually owning AML (I drive an M-B), but they have used previous product 'badge engineering' tricks (there is more than one example), which would probably not please AM customers.

Could they ever bring themselves to do a Ford and allow Aston Martin free rein?










anonymous-user

55 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Jon39 said:

I don't object to Daimler eventually owning AML (I drive an M-B), but they have used previous product 'badge engineering' tricks (there is more than one example), which would probably not please AM customers.

Could they ever bring themselves to do a Ford and allow Aston Martin free rein?






I wouldn't be worried; Mercedes aren't about to start throwing wings badges on a diesel A-Class. The agreement is a technical partnership that opens more doors than the previous one, signed off in the Bez era. Aston's in much better health now on the engine front, because it has a V12 that has scope for further development, and a V6 in the works. Therefore the Mercedes 'bits' being repurposed, come down to infotainment and hybrid technology. Importantly, the infotainment would be current and not last gen - often a complaint of the current cars, despite them already being a good step forward over the previous Volvo / Garmin etc.

The bone of contention I fully expect will be that once they're on top of the cabin design, and MBUX has been integrated into an interior purists approve of, the motoring journos who 4 days out of 5 wax lyrical about MBUX being brilliant, will in an Aston application make a point of stating it's from Mercedes, as if it's a let down, despite it being acknowledged as being top tier technology. For whatever reason, Aston are subjected to higher levels of critique than other car makers, and lessons have been learnt and the cars will get better. Much like with Moers taking charge, some time is needed to allow improvements to take effect and be visible.

Do Mercedes have aspirations beyond the initial period to take more control and have more influence? I don't know, but if they took control, I think it's more likely they'd approach it like BMW have with Rolls Royce where it's a diligent, understanding parent company that respects the heritage of the marque and provides technical input without it being obvious where some of the technology has been sourced.

I'd just plead with the disillusioned among you to bear with the company while they get their ducks in a row, because once the dots are all joined up, there's a mighty car lineup that should come to fruition.

cardigankid

8,849 posts

213 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Jon39 said:

alscar said:
I’ll suggest majority control by MB by the start of 2023.

Do you not think we should believe this statement, published by Daimler yesterday?
Admittedly they did not mention a date.


'Access to these technologies will be granted in exchange for new shares in Aston Martin, issued in several stages over the next 3 years, up to a total value of GBP 286 million. Mercedes-Benz AG’s current shareholding stands at 2.6% of Aston Martin’s common equity. The new shares to be issued will take Mercedes-Benz AG’s holding up to a maximum of no more than 20.0%. Mercedes-Benz AG has no intention to increase its holding in Aston Martin beyond this level.'
Why would it need to - it already achieves two things - guarantee of technology and some reassurance of stability. There is no way MB will take on the £1bn debt nor fund Stroll's racing ambitions, which is what some might have hoped. Also, with debt at that level, even if this goes the way they are currently suggesting, you cannot describe AML as a safe investment, so I don't know what JPM are basing their recommendations on.

Lastly, if, and it is a big if, electric is the way forward, it is going to be using hydrogen fuel cell technology, not batteries, which are if nothing else an environmental catastrophe. Therefore, any car company who bets big on BEV's is going to fail. The drive to EV's is politically driven not demand driven. The politicians think they can dictate demand. They can't. I for one may use a 'milk float' type vehicle in town centres, but I will never buy a battery powered car, and certainly not a battery powered Aston Martin. People talk about this as if it is the inevitable future. They are simply wrong. The day AML's principal products are battery powered is the day they lose all product appeal.





Emilio Largo

584 posts

112 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
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Jon39 said:

nite_narc said:
Having defended the likelihood of a Mercedes buy-in to AML for a while, and despite the many opposing comments on this forum (some more eloquently put than others), I'm enjoying this moment.

When thie second AstonMartin / Mercedes agreement has been completed,
how much money will Mercedes-Benz have invested in Aston Martin?
Zero (i.e. cash) - see my earlier post.

Irrespective of issuing the "Consideration Shares" AML will have to buy the MB technology from MB (like from any other component supplier) - and they will need cash to pay for it. Those (and other) funds shall obviously be raised by capital increase for cash supplied by new shareholders, by liens etc. (see press release). To a great extent it´s a debt rescheduling.

So this "Mercedes buy-in" seems a low risk investment for MB. For them it is a deal "on commercial terms" (see press release). Why should MB invest cash in a quasi-bust company? They seem to have problems on their own.

Things will get interesting in case the plan won´t work out and AML unable to pay the MB bills at some point in the future. We would then see how sustainable this "buy-in" really is. But let´s not hope things will take this direction.