AML - Stock Market Listing
Discussion
Sebastian Tombs said:
Jon39 said:
Are you sure that you still hold any?
The reverse share split has removed the very small share holders. There was no communication following the 1 for 20 action, not even a goodbye.
Then I bought 400 more in the 30p offer to dilute my holding and lower my break even price.
So I ought to have 25 now. In theory.
25 seems right Sebastian. I think you should by now have received a replacement share certificate.
This is an extract from the 1 for the 20 Prospectus;
'Despatch of definitive certificates for Consolidated Shares in certificated form ......... Not later than 23 December 2020'
Peter McKean said:
Well, good points, Jon, and does make me think twice.
Stroll and Moers are hard-headed guys, I think, and in this to make it a success rather for outright love of the brand (though obviously car guys) - and one has to hope that that the DBX will be a success and support the sports car business. It has certainly been received well. FY 2020 results are due on the 25th of February and investors will be looking for evidence that costs are under control and that DBX sales are going some way towards meeting expectations and selling well in markets such as Asia.
The debt is obviously a concern and I woudn't be surprised if there was another stock split in the future that dilutes the shareholding to bring in some big institutional investors.
I can't quite fathom why the stock price is still rising after Stroll categorically denied the takeover rumour.
I bought into AML when it was on the way to the bottom and maintained my position during the share dilution, so I am still somewhat down but actually close to my initial investment.Stroll and Moers are hard-headed guys, I think, and in this to make it a success rather for outright love of the brand (though obviously car guys) - and one has to hope that that the DBX will be a success and support the sports car business. It has certainly been received well. FY 2020 results are due on the 25th of February and investors will be looking for evidence that costs are under control and that DBX sales are going some way towards meeting expectations and selling well in markets such as Asia.
The debt is obviously a concern and I woudn't be surprised if there was another stock split in the future that dilutes the shareholding to bring in some big institutional investors.
I can't quite fathom why the stock price is still rising after Stroll categorically denied the takeover rumour.
I can't wrap my head around the low valuation though, even considering recent upwards momentum. Looking at Q3 the cash balance trajectory seems OK and the DBX will surely sell well (especially considering the great reviews). The deal with Daimler assures great powertrain for future models. Bits like the Valkyrie or that Chris Goodwin is working for them cast good light for future products too with loads of brand halo power.
As for takeover, Daimler lacks an ultra luxury brand from their portfolio, and Aston Martin is the last 'free floating' brand to scoop up, so I would expect them to take action.
I also think the earnings call could be a game changer - i.e. whether the DBX delivers growth prospects or the company remains a going concern. Still, I think the market cap of $3bn is very low...
optimal909 said:
I bought into AML when it was on the way to the bottom and maintained my position during the share dilution, so I am still somewhat down but actually close to my initial investment.
I can't wrap my head around the low valuation though, .......
I can't wrap my head around the low valuation though, .......
£2.5 billion, with £1 billion debt.
You feel this is low, so how do you calculate what you consider to be a more realistic AML valuation?
When a business has a long track record of annual lossses, I find it tends to be almost a 'finger in the air' approach,
Normally a share price bears a relationship to past and expected future annual profits, but obviously that is impossible with AML.
One of my largest holdings, is a business which has been fortunate not to be affected very much by the pandemic. Profit is continuing the steady growth of past years. Dividends have even been increased this year, providing a current yield of 7.8%.
There is no difficulty raising very long-term debt. One of their recently issued bonds was $1bn at 3.9% repayable 2050 (compare that to AMLs $1.1bn at 10.5% repayable in 2026) and to buy into that investment, you pay just 8 times the earnings.
With AML, the hope is that the DBX will sell well enough to start producing a gross profit for the company. Betting the company on one product is quite a concentrated risk, but it did work for Porsche. After the gross profit, come subtraction headaches of new model development spending, debt interest payments (£millions) etc., before producing the important pre-tax profit.
Aston Martin is safeguarded by having such a very valuable brand. If the business were to fail, then the brand still has a considerable value, so that must be reflected on the share price (market value). The brand was first seen to be desirable, when people decided to rescue the company in 1926.
A very difficult company to value. Perhaps brand value minus debt is one way to begin.
Thankyou4calling said:
Jon39 said:
First one off the line on 9th July 2020, customer deliveries later that month.
To be fair, Aston Martin have always said the DBX main markets are USA and China.
Still seems odd not to see a few after 7 months.
SSO said:
Never seen one in the US.
Keep looking.
Do you know a lady called Charlotte?
Andy Palmer was convinced that she would buy a DBX.
She is in her late 30s and is a professional girl.
She frequently visits Rolex and Burberry shops, so that might help you find her.
On the other hand, perhaps AP just had a wild imagination.
Jon39 said:
Keep looking.
Do you know a lady called Charlotte?
Andy Palmer was convinced that she would buy a DBX.
She is in her late 30s and is a professional girl.
She frequently visits Rolex and Burberry shops, so that might help you find her.
On the other hand, perhaps AP just had a wild imagination.
EVR said:
Jon39 said:
Keep looking.
Do you know a lady called Charlotte?
Andy Palmer was convinced that she would buy a DBX.
She is in her late 30s and is a professional girl.
She frequently visits Rolex and Burberry shops, so that might help you find her.
On the other hand, perhaps AP just had a wild imagination.
What was Dr Palmer thinking?
I hope it does not imply, that her professional business premises are in a flat above a Burberry shop.
We don't want any of that associated with a car hand built in Cymru.
I haven’t seen one either in London so far, although I guess we are all driving around a lot less than usual at the moment. When I went to the pre-launch customer event I was told there would be very few supplied to the UK for the first year or so although they said supply would increase after that. They said they needed to attract new customers to the brand in the US and China and the only way to do that was for the cars to be seen on the road. Hence DBX supply was going to be concentrated on those two markets initially to make a splash and hopefully build some momentum. Clearly they are by far the largest luxury SUV markets anyway. Even in London you don’t seen that many Urus or Bentayga on the road.
Let’s see when the results come out in a few weeks although I agree a bit concerning that no one is seen one at all.
Let’s see when the results come out in a few weeks although I agree a bit concerning that no one is seen one at all.
Jon39 said:
SSO said:
Never seen one in the US.
Keep looking.
Do you know a lady called Charlotte?
Andy Palmer was convinced that she would buy a DBX.
She is in her late 30s and is a professional girl.
She frequently visits Rolex and Burberry shops, so that might help you find her.
On the other hand, perhaps AP just had a wild imagination.
Westlondondriver said:
I haven’t seen one either in London so far, although I guess we are all driving around a lot less than usual at the moment. When I went to the pre-launch customer event I was told there would be very few supplied to the UK for the first year or so although they said supply would increase after that. They said they needed to attract new customers to the brand in the US and China and the only way to do that was for the cars to be seen on the road. Hence DBX supply was going to be concentrated on those two markets initially to make a splash and hopefully build some momentum. Clearly they are by far the largest luxury SUV markets anyway. Even in London you don’t seen that many Urus or Bentayga on the road.
Let’s see when the results come out in a few weeks although I agree a bit concerning that no one is seen one at all.
There are a few in the cotswolds now - not sure if they are 'locals' or the guys and gals who have de-camped from London - which might explain why you haven't seen any in town as they are all living here Let’s see when the results come out in a few weeks although I agree a bit concerning that no one is seen one at all.
SSO said:
I have reached out to all the Charlotte's I know and asked a few friends to reach out to one's they know. So far not a single Charlotte on the list has bought a DBX. We also asked about an Aston Martin Submarine, an Aston Martin Apartment, and an Aston Martin Motorcycle. Also no on all three of these. A few did say they had purchased a few bottles of Bowmore scotch.
Oh dear.
I read that 80% of cars sold in the US are now pickups or SUVs. Hopefully many DBXs are being sold there.
There has been a report that Mr Stroll said, 14,000 Aston Martins will be built in 2023.
Have you done a study on that production forecast SSO?
If the DBX can do 10,000 p.a. then OK, but for sports cars, a really beautiful new model is needed, to create an early years sales boost and we have not heard about one coming that soon. The Vanquish is to be a core model, but can it sell by the thousand?
Thinking about the next Vanquish, which I consider does appear to look more attactive than the Valkyrie.
Do you think mid-engine cars have sales limitations, for a manufacturer who is desperate to increase their total number of sales?
The physics is very clever with a low moment of inertia, but at the expense of practicality.
Existing Aston Martins can easily be used to carry luggage for a weekend away, without needing to be a skilled packer.
A mid-engine configuration with a sloping front end, obviously has a very limited carrying capacity.
Would that aspect put you off buying a mid-engine car, if it was going to be your only sports car?
Edited by Jon39 on Thursday 4th February 15:55
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