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Discussion
SSO said:
The peak production number I used was the highest I could find in any of Aston's published financials. If there is a higher official number, I am happy to change it.
You have been publishing; 'In Aston Martin’s most successful year in history, they sold 6,441 cars.'
That figure might be in respect of 2006, for which my records show 6,500 cars (unsourced).
The most successful year in history was 2007, when the AML output was 7,281 cars.
My records show that figure as being 'source AML' which must have been from an Aston Martin publication or statement, because their Companies House annual reports at that time, did not reveal any production figures. Oh the joys of being a private company! The economic financial crisis followed the 2007 success, so once again it was cancelled orders and redundancies at Aston Martin.
The IPO Registration document on page 34 stated; '...... to an average of approximately 6,800 from 2006 to 2008, with a peak of over 7,000 in 2007.'
(Funny that they omitted to mention 2009 = 3,875)
On this forum at the time of the IPO, that peak performance period was a very useful indicator to use in the discussions. We turned out to be far ahead of the City IPO forecasters. A pity for the unfortunate IPO investors. If only they had been followers of the AM PH forum. Three core models, output flat out with the DB9 and Vantage success, but still not making a profit. There were reported profits, but development costs had been paid by Ford, supposedly in return for some kind of royalty scheme, based on output. For comparable quarterly periods, DB11 and new Vantage UK retail sales, were way behind that of their predecessors. Taken all together, it was so obvious that AP was heading for trouble, with poor sales and huge development spending (especially without having Ford to foot the bill for that). If they could not make any significant profit towards the end of the Ford era, when Gaydon was at or near maximum capacity and also when there must have been reduced development spending, that must tell us something.
AP must have known where things were heading, especially when he became aware of the new Vantage retail sales pattern, which probably made his continued bullish comments worthy of an Oscar shortlist.
The recent St Athan redundancies announcement, unfortunately makes us wonder about possible slower than target DBX sales. Everyone is hoping that the DBX can replicate the success of the Porsche SUV business model. This time we cannot make any comparisons with a previous model, so it remains inside knowledge. Hope it won't be the 12th financial crisis for AM. DBX is of course so crucial, as the big revenue provider. They certainly don't want the costs of two factories running at part capacity. Mid-engine cars have always been a limited market, so there will be question marks over that plan.
Edited by Jon39 on Friday 12th March 18:36
Jon39 said:
SSO said:
The peak production number I used was the highest I could find in any of Aston's published financials. If there is a higher official number, I am happy to change it.
You have been publishing; 'In Aston Martin’s most successful year in history, they sold 6,441 cars.'
That figure might be in respect of 2006, for which my records show 6,500 cars (unsourced).
The most successful year in history was 2007, when the AML output was 7,281 cars.
My records show that figure as being 'source AML' which must have been from an Aston Martin publication or statement, because their Companies House annual reports at that time, did not reveal any production figures. Oh the joys of being a private company! The economic financial crisis followed the 2007 success, so once again it was cancelled orders and redundancies at Aston Martin.
The IPO Registration document on page 34 stated; '...... to an average of approximately 6,800 from 2006 to 2008, with a peak of over 7,000 in 2007.'
(Funny that they omitted to mention 2009 = 3,875)
Edited by Jon39 on Friday 12th March 18:36
I do stand by the essence of the point I was trying to raise as Aston's total capacity is still 14,000 cars. This is from the article on the Q3 earnings call.
It came out in the earnings call that Aston Martin currently has production capacity for 14,000 cars per year. This is 2.2X more than they have ever needed. How they ended up with this much capacity defies all logic but then again, it wasn’t too long ago that Aston was playing around with submarines and apartment buildings. Even Stroll’s ambitious recovery plans only get Aston to 10,000 cars per year in 2025.
and the Q4/FY 2020 earning call:
In Aston Martin’s most successful year in history, they sold 6,441 cars. In 2021 they are aiming to sell 6,000. In the Q3 2020 earnings call it was mentioned that Aston Martin currently has production capacity for 14,000 cars per year. There is no long term plan currently on the table that gets anywhere near fully utilizing this capacity. At best, Aston hopes to get to 10,000 cars by 2025. All this extra capacity has to be a huge on-going drag on the P&L. Despite this there don’t seem to be any plans for a major restructuring in 2021. While I applaud all of Moers efforts to make Aston Martin run more efficiently, they really need to find the funds to properly restructure the business.
SSO said:
I'm happy to use the 7,281 number going forward.
I do stand by the essence of the point I was trying to raise as Aston's total capacity is still 14,000 cars.
I do stand by the essence of the point I was trying to raise as Aston's total capacity is still 14,000 cars.
Yes, as Gaydon has shown in the past, just over 7,000 vehicles can be produced annually, so if St Athan is a similar facility (I don't know), then obviously capacity becomes 14,000 in total. I think Gaydon is two shift production, so presumably three shift is theoretically possible.
We must hope that building the DBX at a second factory, is not going to be a repeat of the Rapide, which was initially built in Austria. Having dual factory costs will be awkward, if the Gaydon capacity turns out to have been adequate after all.
I believe St Athan is predicated on the fact that Gaydon production is capped at 10k per annum no matter what. While the best Gaydon year is about 7k, I think the AML planners were hoping that DBX (and it’s upcoming variants) would be looking at about the same volume as sports cars, which with the ever-growing popularity of SUVs, probably looked like a reasonable assumption when the planning was being done. So this means you have to look at a second manufacturing facility.
Then you need to factor in electric or hybrid cars. The electrical systems on these cars can kill you. So you have to have facilities configured so you can keep untrained personnel out of the development and production areas for electric cars. When the RapidE was under development with Willians AML decided that the new St Athan facility would become the home of electric vehicles, which again made sense as it saves having to configure Gaydon to build electric variants; anybody who has watched videos of the Gaydon build area, or done a factory tour, would appreciate that with it’s open plan and two side-by-side lines how difficult it would be to configure it for separating electric cars. If you had to put electrics on their own line, the other remaining line wouldn’t be able to cope.
Now we come to DBX actual build. As JLR proved with the XJ and new Range Rover, it’s nigh-on impossible to put a luxury saloon and a capable 4x4 on a common platform. So I don’t know if a DBX, even a non-electric one, could share a line with the sports cars. In conclusion, while on sheer numbers St Athan may not look like a good idea right now (no matter what it looked like 3-4 years ago when the product planning was being looked at), I don’t think AML, with it’s other factory constraints, could have done anything else.
Then you need to factor in electric or hybrid cars. The electrical systems on these cars can kill you. So you have to have facilities configured so you can keep untrained personnel out of the development and production areas for electric cars. When the RapidE was under development with Willians AML decided that the new St Athan facility would become the home of electric vehicles, which again made sense as it saves having to configure Gaydon to build electric variants; anybody who has watched videos of the Gaydon build area, or done a factory tour, would appreciate that with it’s open plan and two side-by-side lines how difficult it would be to configure it for separating electric cars. If you had to put electrics on their own line, the other remaining line wouldn’t be able to cope.
Now we come to DBX actual build. As JLR proved with the XJ and new Range Rover, it’s nigh-on impossible to put a luxury saloon and a capable 4x4 on a common platform. So I don’t know if a DBX, even a non-electric one, could share a line with the sports cars. In conclusion, while on sheer numbers St Athan may not look like a good idea right now (no matter what it looked like 3-4 years ago when the product planning was being looked at), I don’t think AML, with it’s other factory constraints, could have done anything else.
LTP said:
Just idly looking at the share price (disclaimer: I don't have any) and I noticed this - and I'm sure I'm not the only one. The 2020 results clearly went down well.
Graph courtesy of London Stock Exchange website; coloured lines are mine, are just visual "best fit" and the approximate presentation date of 25th February
But that's really pessimistic.Graph courtesy of London Stock Exchange website; coloured lines are mine, are just visual "best fit" and the approximate presentation date of 25th February
What if it's like this?
Admittedly, my prediction in February was for the next peak to be in late February or early March. Wrong so far.
LTP said:
Then you need to factor in electric or hybrid cars. The electrical systems on these cars can kill you. So you have to have facilities configured so you can keep untrained personnel out of the development and production areas for electric cars.
Interesting Paul. I have heard that danger being mentioned, with regard to rescue and fire crews, attending the scenes of crashed electric vehicles.
You made me think about Investindustrial (remember the chaos they caused at AML), and I wondered how they will now keep all those carpenters safe, at the old Morgan factory.
Jon39 said:
Well, that is brilliant Dicky.
If your waves continue like that, imagine how high the 4th and 5th upward waves will go.
"This toym next year Rodney, we'll be milyonairs." Del Boy.
"Beware ofgeeksoptimistic novice investor Aston enthusiasts bearing formulas." Warren Buffett.
Stroll knows what he's doing is my interpretation. Although I understand the concern about him not being a dyed-in-the-wool automobile man, perhaps a brand pedlar is more important for AML at the moment. The AM Formula 1 team with attendant AM Safety Car and Medical Car has to raise the company's profile. Although only a small proportion of F1 viewers will buy a new Aston on the strength of this exposure, the desirability of the brand will increase. I think Stroll is aiming at the folk who buy expensive toys simply because other people aspire to them. That way he doesn't have to worry too much just now about the product itself, he only has to worry about selling to badge collectors. Victor Gauntlett did a similar thing on a smaller scale with the V8 Zagato. They were sold out before buyers knew exactly what they were getting. The ploy allowed him the financial leeway to build the original Virage which in turn brought the twin supercharged Vantage and Ford and the DB7. If your waves continue like that, imagine how high the 4th and 5th upward waves will go.
"This toym next year Rodney, we'll be milyonairs." Del Boy.
"Beware of
Stroll knows exactly what he's doing is my guess. Sell the current range to Must Haves to put the company on a firmer footing to develop a range of better cars.
Have I mentioned I'm an optimist by nature?
raceboy said:
That graph would be right at home on the Facebook Aston Shares page, they all seem to think the share price will hit £30 if Vettel wins a race or the safety car is used. 
I think in their world of short-term gambling, especially now with the internet, that is called RAMPING.
Make up a story about what is going to increase a share price, new buyers push up that share price, and then you hope to sell your own shares at a profit.
I use the long-term approach. If a business can increase their earnings, then eventually the share price and dividend payments will increase. Simple. The tricky part, is selecting businesses which will prosper in the future, but amateurs can do it. You only have to be correct a few times.
DickyC said:
Stroll knows what he's doing is my interpretation. ....
.... Stroll knows exactly what he's doing is my guess. Sell the current range to Must Haves to put the company on a firmer footing to develop a range of better cars.
Have I mentioned I'm an optimist by nature?
.... Stroll knows exactly what he's doing is my guess. Sell the current range to Must Haves to put the company on a firmer footing to develop a range of better cars.
Have I mentioned I'm an optimist by nature?
Good for you.
Oh dear, how the UK needs many more optimists.
My normal optimistic nature failed me a year ago. The pandemic looked so grim then, I anticipated that it would take the surviving companies, a long time to recover. My reading turned out to be wrong, and the early stock market bounce spoilt my plan. At least I did not do any selling though. I expect you swooped on some great bargain shares then, at remarkably low prices.
I am no longer an AML shareholder. That old trick of artificially increasing the share price, wiped me out.
However, I still have my framed share certificate for 7 Aston Martin shares, displayed on my garage wall, beside a 1 of 7 Aston Martin.
RMDB9 said:
Dewi 2 said:
I am no longer an AML shareholder. That old trick of artificially increasing the share price, wiped me out.
What happened?
The Capital Reorganisation in December 2020, involved the issue of 1 New Share for every 20 Existing Shares held.
Therefore any shareholders who held fewer than 20 existing shares, were no longer Aston Martin shareholders.
There was not even a payment for the fractions, so where that money went I don't know. Hopefully they followed the recent example of TESCO and gave it to charity.
Dewi 2 said:
The Capital Reorganisation in December 2020, involved the issue of 1 New Share for every 20 Existing Shares held.
Therefore any shareholders who held fewer than 20 existing shares, were no longer Aston Martin shareholders.
There was not even a payment for the fractions, so where that money went I don't know. Hopefully they followed the recent example of TESCO and gave it to charity.
RichB said:
Dewi 2 said:
I still have my framed share certificate for 7 Aston Martin shares, displayed on my garage wall, beside a 1 of 7 Aston Martin.
Perhaps you should get a One-77 
I would then have to buy 77 Aston Martin shares.
And that, after being thrown out by LS, just because he wanted his share price to be higher than APs.
Dewi 2 said:
RichB said:
Dewi 2 said:
I still have my framed share certificate for 7 Aston Martin shares, displayed on my garage wall, beside a 1 of 7 Aston Martin.
Perhaps you should get a One-77 And that, after being thrown out by LS, just because he wanted his share price to be higher than APs.
RichB said:
Fair point! I didn't buy any shares, but I am on the lookout for a Newport Pagnell brick.
Is there going to be some demolition of the old buildings, Richard?
You might have to be in NP at just the right moment.
Perhaps a couple of lorry loads, then watch everyone queuing at future AMOC events.
How about £20 each brick, with some money (no need to say it is 20p) going to charity, to encourage sales.
What a great idea.
Dewi 2 said:
RichB said:
Fair point! I didn't buy any shares, but I am on the lookout for a Newport Pagnell brick.
Is there going to be some demolition of the old buildings, Richard?
My topic was started in anticipation of the IPO. The topic title is no longer completely appropriate, but it suffices for us to continue talking about the business and financial aspects of AMLGH plc.
.....................
I have not been watching the replacement Top Gear (comedy not as natural), but did recently watch their Aston Martin DBX comparison test.
It was on a repeats channel, so I don't know when that show was originally broadcast.
The DBX was their winner and it was even faster going up an open cast mine track, than an Audi Something SUV, which I think they said is even more powerful than the DBX, and driven by Heinz-Harald Frentzen (F1 race winner).
The basis of their feature was Britain vs Germany. Britain won due to the DBX, but they could not resist mentioning the German engine, however we can gloss over that.
Has Aston Martin followed up that success, by seeking publicity on the back of that great endorsement by Top Gear?
I have not seen anything. Almost every item of Aston Martin's publicity recently, seems to involve Fomula One.
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