AML - Stock Market Listing

AML - Stock Market Listing

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anonymous-user

55 months

Monday 5th July 2021
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It's perhaps not of interest as it relates only to the current cars, but the updated online configurator went live at the weekend. One of the many complaints was that the configurator tool wasn't previously good enough. It's quite a step up in quality, particularly the exterior renderings. Some additional options for colours as well across the model range (they were always available but not shown online), and a neat little history section for each.

Minglar

1,240 posts

124 months

Monday 5th July 2021
quotequote all
NFC 85 Vette said:
It's perhaps not of interest as it relates only to the current cars, but the updated online configurator went live at the weekend. One of the many complaints was that the configurator tool wasn't previously good enough. It's quite a step up in quality, particularly the exterior renderings. Some additional options for colours as well across the model range (they were always available but not shown online), and a neat little history section for each.
Definitely a big improvement NFC. I had a play this morning and configured a Vantage coupe…..Minotaur Green, 21” wheels, yellow calipers, lots of carbon bits, carbon ceramic brakes, dark finish vaned grille, smoked tail lights……it looked pretty good actually. The only problem was it didn’t show me the overall price. Oh well, as the saying goes, if you need to ask…….!

Best Regards

Minglar

PS…..sorry for the thread creep Jon39!


oilit

2,635 posts

179 months

Monday 5th July 2021
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Thanks - is it just me who wants a DBX in Kermit Green or Cosmos Orange ? -

I did have it in configured in cinnabar orange I think or something similar which seemed brighter on the previous configurator, but I do think it looks great in funky colours.

DB9VolanteDriver

2,614 posts

177 months

Monday 5th July 2021
quotequote all
SSO said:
NFC 85 Vette said:
In any case, the DBX needs to be the successful bread winner, because nobody's really buying Vantage's, DB11's or DBSS' for a variety of reasons and that's unlikely to change between now and 2023 as the company's committed to overhauling those 3 models entirely, to address the plethora of issues, problems and deal breakers expressed by this forum.
I believe the DBX is now struggling in the US. Got an email recently offering 3 years free service if you purchased a new DBX out of dealer stock. Dealer who sent out the email has 9 listed and probably an equal number sitting on the back lot.

Lawsuit against Nebula is quite questionable given Nebula provided funding for the Valkyrie development when Aston needed it most.
Following on, I see that AT shows 1 new Urus, 35 new Bentaygas, and 160 new DBX for sale across the US. Hard to believe the Lamborghini and Bentley numbers. If correct it doesn’t look particularly good for DBX.

raceboy

13,133 posts

281 months

Monday 5th July 2021
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oilit said:
Thanks - is it just me who wants a DBX in Kermit Green or Cosmos Orange ?
No, I wish more people would spec something a bit 'different' to the monotones. A neighbour has a Jag SUV in bright orange and I think it looks great.

Thankyou4calling

10,618 posts

174 months

Monday 5th July 2021
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DB9VolanteDriver said:
Following on, I see that AT shows 1 new Urus, 35 new Bentaygas, and 160 new DBX for sale across the US. Hard to believe the Lamborghini and Bentley numbers. If correct it doesn’t look particularly good for DBX.
According to Laurence Stroll it’s going “Gangbusters” which isn’t a quantifiable financial term.

Nor is the anecdotal information that a year after launch I’ve still not seen one on the road.

Jon39

Original Poster:

12,873 posts

144 months

Monday 5th July 2021
quotequote all

Thankyou4calling said:
DB9VolanteDriver said:
Following on, I see that AT shows 1 new Urus, 35 new Bentaygas, and 160 new DBX for sale across the US. Hard to believe the Lamborghini and Bentley numbers. If correct it doesn’t look particularly good for DBX.
According to Laurence Stroll it’s going “Gangbusters” which isn’t a quantifiable financial term.

Nor is the anecdotal information that a year after launch I’ve still not seen one on the road.

You might have seen black ones. Sometimes mistaken for a Kia. wink

We don't yet know about sales in China, one of the stated two stated target markets. I think the modern slang gangbusters comment was about China, hopefully that is going well, but we will have to wait until the 28th July to find out.

The Aston Martin total UK sales (first registrations) in June was 92.



Dewi 2

1,330 posts

66 months

Wednesday 7th July 2021
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I was ejected as an Aston Martin shareholder, during the 1 for 20 capitalisation.
Now an ex-parrot ex-member of the Company.
I did wonder what happened to the fraction payment, and now have had time to enquire.

'all fraction entitlements of less than £5-00 have been retained by the company.'

Retention has become increasing common recently, but the money is usually donated to a nominated charity.
With the long sequence of losses, perhaps Aston Martin considers itself to be a charity, but have just never bothered to officially register with the Charities Commission. smile


Jon39

Original Poster:

12,873 posts

144 months

Thursday 8th July 2021
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The City investment analysts amuse me. They write reports to advise their clients, usually containing a recommendation to buy or sell shares (often tends to be buy) and a forecast future share price. This one for AMLGH is Buy, with a forecast £28 share price.

What often tends to happen later on, is another recommendation is issued often with a different opinion and forecast share price, completely ignoring what had been said previously. If anyone remembers what analysts were recommending after the IPO, it was all hogwash, but never a word about previously being completely wrong.

'Citi reiterated its 'buy' rating on shares of luxury carmaker Aston Martin on Wednesday ahead of its second-quarter results, stating the firm was on the path back towards profitability. "In Q2 we expect to see further signs of recovery from higher DBX deliveries, increased contribution from Specials, and sustained 9% EBITDA margins ahead of a meaningful step up to an 18% EBITDA margin in 2H," it said. Citi, which has a 2,800.0p target price on the stock, is forecasting £24.0m second-quarter underlying earnings, including a recently flagged £5.0m bad debt provision following termination of a commercial agreement with a Swiss dealer. "Our proprietary residual value data shows an appreciation in the value of used DBX vehicles in June, demonstrating the strong pricing environment and consumer demand that should support margins," the bank said. It added that the recent bond issuance has eased liquidity concerns and said that on its estimates, the £575.0m cash position leaves sufficient headroom for a cumulative £365.0m negative free cash flow over FY21/22 before turning positive from FY23.'

It might be fun to bookmark this one. Two more years of huge losses, then pre-tax profits 2023 onwards.

PHers on this forum seem to gather quite a good feeling of what is going on at AML, probably more so than financial analysts. That was certainly the case at the IPO time, when Buy recommendations were being issued to City clients. Wonder what those clients thought about a year later, whilst drowning their sorrow? Remember the old City joke? A stockbroker is someone who will look after your money, until it is all gone.




SSO

1,405 posts

192 months

Thursday 8th July 2021
quotequote all
Jon39 said:

The City investment analysts amuse me. They write reports to advise their clients, usually containing a recommendation to buy or sell shares (often tends to be buy) and a forecast future share price. This one for AMLGH is Buy, with a forecast £28 share price.

What often tends to happen later on, is another recommendation is issued often with a different opinion and forecast share price, completely ignoring what had been said previously. If anyone remembers what analysts were recommending after the IPO, it was all hogwash, but never a word about previously being completely wrong.

'Citi reiterated its 'buy' rating on shares of luxury carmaker Aston Martin on Wednesday ahead of its second-quarter results, stating the firm was on the path back towards profitability. "In Q2 we expect to see further signs of recovery from higher DBX deliveries, increased contribution from Specials, and sustained 9% EBITDA margins ahead of a meaningful step up to an 18% EBITDA margin in 2H," it said. Citi, which has a 2,800.0p target price on the stock, is forecasting £24.0m second-quarter underlying earnings, including a recently flagged £5.0m bad debt provision following termination of a commercial agreement with a Swiss dealer. "Our proprietary residual value data shows an appreciation in the value of used DBX vehicles in June, demonstrating the strong pricing environment and consumer demand that should support margins," the bank said. It added that the recent bond issuance has eased liquidity concerns and said that on its estimates, the £575.0m cash position leaves sufficient headroom for a cumulative £365.0m negative free cash flow over FY21/22 before turning positive from FY23.'

It might be fun to bookmark this one. Two more years of huge losses, then pre-tax profits 2023 onwards.

PHers on this forum seem to gather quite a good feeling of what is going on at AML, probably more so than financial analysts. That was certainly the case at the IPO time, when Buy recommendations were being issued to City clients. Wonder what those clients thought about a year later, whilst drowning their sorrow? Remember the old City joke? A stockbroker is someone who will look after your money, until it is all gone.
Interesting on the DBX in the UK but in this case I think its the US market that is most relevant. Right now there are 151 new ones listed for sale on Autotrader and who knows how many sitting in dealer back lots. Until Aston goes back to providing both wholesale and retail sales numbers, I would not put a lot of stock in what they are saying.

Jon39

Original Poster:

12,873 posts

144 months

Thursday 8th July 2021
quotequote all

SSO said:
...... I would not put a lot of stock in what they are saying.

Exactly my point.

If significant pre-tax profits can be achieved in 2023, I will apologise to Citi. It is the extremely long AML troubled history, including some periods of being run by very able and successful business people, which always gives one fears about difficulties ahead.

My understanding about Aston Martin in the USA, is that the majority of customers want their new car 'now'. Seems quite different from the UK market, where customer usually like to choose their exact specification, are happy to wait about 3 months and sometimes even visit Gaydon to see the build. That seems to be the reason why US dealers run a higher stock level to cater for immediate delivery. Hopefully that stock is 'turning over', but of course we must await announcements before knowing.

Is my understanding for the USA higher stock levels correct ?




Edited by Jon39 on Friday 9th July 11:20

SSO

1,405 posts

192 months

Friday 9th July 2021
quotequote all
Jon39 said:

SSO said:
...... I would not put a lot of stock in what they are saying.

Exactly my point.

If significant pre-tax profits can be achieved in 2023, I will apologise to Citi. It is the extremely long AML troubled history, including some periods of being run by very able and successful business people, which always gives one fears about difficulties ahead.

My understanding about Aston Martin in the USA, is that the majority of customers want their new car 'now'. Seems quite different from the UK market, where customer usually like to choose their exact specification, are happy to wait about 3 months and sometimes even visit Gaydon to see the build. That seems to be the reason why US dealers run a higher stock level to cater for immediate delivery. Hopefully that stock is 'turning over', but of course we must await announcements before knowing.

Is my understanding for the USA higher stock levels correct ?

Edited by Jon39 on Friday 9th July 11:20
US stock levels do tend to be higher as many US buyers want immediate delivery and are happy to buy a car off the lot. The flip side of this is US dealers normally only publicly list a small percentage of the stock they are sitting on. If there are 151 DBXs currently publicly listed for sale in the there are probably an equal number of cars sitting in a back lot.

Thankyou4calling

10,618 posts

174 months

Monday 2nd August 2021
quotequote all
It was mentioned that a formal announcement would be made on 28th July.

Did this happen?

Minglar

1,240 posts

124 months

Monday 2nd August 2021
quotequote all
Thankyou4calling said:
It was mentioned that a formal announcement would be made on 28th July.

Did this happen?
Yes it did. For some reason I can’t post the link to the release dated 28th July. If you check the LSE website for AML, it is in there towards the bottom of the page.

Best Regards

Minglar

Thankyou4calling

10,618 posts

174 months

Monday 2nd August 2021
quotequote all
Thanks

Jon39

Original Poster:

12,873 posts

144 months

Monday 2nd August 2021
quotequote all

https://www.astonmartinlagonda.com/investors/resul...

click on H1 2021 RESULTS - PRESS RELEASE,
then you will probably have the option of Open, or Download the pdf file.

Everything is going to plan, although I suspect the wording of the target, might now have changed slightly, to incorporate a little more 'flexibility'.
Anyway, thinking back over the 108 year AML history, I am a tremendous admirer of every saviour who has 'invested' (provided) their money to Aston Martin. We know the end result on almost every occasion, but they are the people and businesses who we must thank, for keeping the show rolling along.
I only know of one main investor, who managed to receive more money back, than they put in. Expect you know.

Perhaps now it is time to add the Mr Stroll consortium of investors, to the table in this history topic.
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...







Edited by Jon39 on Monday 2nd August 15:57

LTP

2,093 posts

113 months

Monday 2nd August 2021
quotequote all
Jon39 said:
Expect you know.
Sorry, no. You'll have to tell me.

SSO

1,405 posts

192 months

Monday 2nd August 2021
quotequote all
Jon39 said:


Click on H1 2021 RESULTS - PRESS RELEASE,
then you will probably have the option of Open, or Download the pdf file.

https://www.astonmartinlagonda.com/investors/resul...

Everything is going to plan, although I suspect the wording of the target, might now have changed slightly, to incorporate a little more 'flexibility'.
Anyway, thinking back over the 108 year AML history, I am a tremendous admirer of every saviour who has 'invested' (provided) their money to Aston Martin. We know the end result on almost every occasion, but they are the people and businesses who we must thank, for keeping the show rolling along.

I only know of one main investor, who managed to receive more money back, than they put in. Expect you know.
I beg to differ. They are still burning through tons of cash (GBP 60 mil of the GBP 72 mil raised in the 1st half is already gone). Very low chance they make the EBITDA target.

Jon39

Original Poster:

12,873 posts

144 months

Monday 2nd August 2021
quotequote all

LTP said:
Jon39 said:
Expect you know.
Sorry, no. You'll have to tell me.

InvestIndustrial.
The private equity fund sold as much as possible of their holding at the £4.3 billion valuation level, which recouped far more than the amount they had originally invested in Aston Martin. Could it have been a coincidence that the IPO value was so high ?





Edited by Jon39 on Monday 2nd August 16:39

Jon39

Original Poster:

12,873 posts

144 months

Monday 2nd August 2021
quotequote all

SSO said:
I beg to differ. They are still burning through tons of cash (GBP 60 mil of the GBP 72 mil raised in the 1st half is already gone).
Very low chance they make the EBITDA target.

I know SSO, but as a regular contributor here, I must be careful about being openly negative.
Ref. low chance of making earnings target - that is why I referred to the change they have slipped in to their target wording.
Need to read between my lines sometimes. The size of the debt will of course be one of their main future problems, especially the high cost of servicing and reduction/refinancing. Going electric is another huge risk factor, especially for sports car manufacturers.
Much of the passion will go for many present enthusiasts.

'All going to plan' - the official line!