AML - Stock Market Listing
Discussion
If any of you want to read the 2018 Annual Report & Accounts, it is now available.
https://www.astonmartinlagonda.com/investors/annua...
Today my postman kindly handed to me, my copy of the AML 2018 Annual Report, instead of risking damage by pushing it through the letter box. Certainly very grandly presented within a black box with gold printing, instead of the more usual polythene wrapper.
A well illustrated book and perhaps even a future collectable, being a first edition.
Edited by Dewi 2 on Wednesday 3rd April 16:55
Dewi 2 said:
Do any other Aston Phers, own a portion of AMLGH plc ?
Have made my purchase today (certificate for framing), so looking forward to attending the very first Annual General Meeting.
Certainly wouldn’t have bought them at issue , or even as a long term holding.
Buster73 said:
Dewi 2 said:
Do any other Aston Phers, own a portion of AMLGH plc ?
Have made my purchase today (certificate for framing), so looking forward to attending the very first Annual General Meeting.
Certainly wouldn’t have bought them at issue , or even as a long term holding.
Well done Buster.
Leaving aside shorting, presumably it has not been very easy for many people to achieve a profit since flotation?
I did buy to keep long-term, but only a token holding, so not an investment.
I too hold some. I did think the IPO was potentially 60% over priced so I held off until a few weeks ago when I finally bought in at 1030.
It’s not a huge amount at all, generally I stay in my lane and am more interested in the tech, renewable and EV sectors but its AM and a decision taken with my heart. I intend to hold them in my SIP for at least 10 years and hope the company continues to grow. I think AP is pushing forward in the right areas and hopefully that new Vanq will fly out of the doors in a few years.
It’s not a huge amount at all, generally I stay in my lane and am more interested in the tech, renewable and EV sectors but its AM and a decision taken with my heart. I intend to hold them in my SIP for at least 10 years and hope the company continues to grow. I think AP is pushing forward in the right areas and hopefully that new Vanq will fly out of the doors in a few years.
Edited by dbs2000 on Wednesday 3rd April 17:52
Deutsche Bank has given AML shares a kicking today. Now down in the 920-30s!!!!! (shares down 7.82% today per HL prices)
Downgraded to a £10 target price from a £20 target price by same bank in November.
Mentions more exposure to market volatility than Ferrari/Luxury brands and taking the valuation multiple these downwards into more Premium brand territory (like BMW!!!)
Hoping for some dead cat bounce tomorrow
and some steady upwards climbing.
Downgraded to a £10 target price from a £20 target price by same bank in November.
Mentions more exposure to market volatility than Ferrari/Luxury brands and taking the valuation multiple these downwards into more Premium brand territory (like BMW!!!)
Hoping for some dead cat bounce tomorrow
and some steady upwards climbing.Is it right that a City analyst can reduce the market value of AML by nearly £200 million in one day, simply by issuing a client recommendation?
Closing price 936p (down 8%).
What makes me cross is that the same firm (a giant European bank) issued a 'buy' recommendation in November 2018, suggesting the share price would reach 2000p, and just seven weeks ago, they issued a confirmation of their previous buy recommendation.
I wonder what their clients think, now that their 'buy' share price target of 2000p seven weeks ago, has suddenly been changed to 'hold' target of 1000p?
Nothing appears to have changed to the business since (their recommendation on) 19th February, but it seems to have occurred to the bank that, ' customer demand for the groups cars will be hit by wider market volatility, making it more similar to premium marques like BMW, than a true luxury brand' ...
Many of us will remember, that is exactly what happened during the 2008 recession. It was not something new seven weeks ago.
Deutsche bank is a busted flush and their analysts are as full of s
t as are most in house soothsayers whose primary role is to sell in house positions. I guess DB bought a chunk of the issuance and needed to quickly palm it off to retail and clients. Thus the buy rating. Now they don’t have a position so the more honest ‘hold’ which is effectively ‘sell’ as analysts never sell anything.
The IPO levels were always a joke and the whole city knew it but all the professionals as always were very happy to take your money.
I still wouldn’t buy personally even at these levels as I suspect there is still some way to fall.
Buy the car, not the stock.
t as are most in house soothsayers whose primary role is to sell in house positions. I guess DB bought a chunk of the issuance and needed to quickly palm it off to retail and clients. Thus the buy rating. Now they don’t have a position so the more honest ‘hold’ which is effectively ‘sell’ as analysts never sell anything. The IPO levels were always a joke and the whole city knew it but all the professionals as always were very happy to take your money.
I still wouldn’t buy personally even at these levels as I suspect there is still some way to fall.
Buy the car, not the stock.
I bought a bit a few days after they floated and have regretted it every day since!
Not my finest pick but fortunately not big money either. I’m at the point where I’ve lost enough of a % that I don’t see any value in cashing out so will just see where it goes from here. Lesson learnt, head not heart.
Not my finest pick but fortunately not big money either. I’m at the point where I’ve lost enough of a % that I don’t see any value in cashing out so will just see where it goes from here. Lesson learnt, head not heart.
PantsFire said:
Google 'Deutsche Bank' with the word 'scandal', 'investigation', 'fine', 'settlement', 'Mexican drug cartel', or ... well, you get the idea. I wouldn't trust their analyst as far as I could throw them.
Are 'Chinese Walls' (did they stem from the stock market 'big bang' days) just a marketing ploy?
It has been suggested earlier, that analyst recommendations can be linked to the same firm's own stock positions.
I had been under the impression, when seeing any analyst completely change their recommendation within a short time, that it was ineptitude.
Had never dreamt it could be dishonesty.
Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have deployed their top equity advisory bankers to work on what will be the biggest public share sale in London this year — the £1bn listing of luxury carmaker Aston Martin.
The three banks have been named as joint global co-ordinators for the deal, which was announced on Wednesday. It follows months of speculation that the iconic brand, featured heavily in the James Bond film series, was set to go public.
News of the planned initial public offering comes in one of the quietest summer periods for Europe's equity bankers on record and will boost London's IPO market. So far in 2018, 43 deals worth $6.3bn have priced in the UK, compared with 56 worth a combined $6.9bn at the same point last year, according to Dealogic.
Alongside the global co-ordinators, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, HSBC and UniCredit are working as bookrunners, with independent investment bank Lazard offering financial advice to Aston Martin. Co-lead managers are CI Capital, Houlihan Lokey, Numis Securities and Mediobanca.
Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank's relationship with Aston Martin stretches back many years, with the German group having advised the carmaker on the issuance of high-yield bonds in both 2011 and last year.
Scroll for more of this story
For the IPO, Deutsche's global head of equity syndicate and co-head of equity capital markets in Europe, Edward Sankey, is involved. Sankey has a history of working on big IPOs in the auto sector, having advised on the TI Fluid Systems deal late last year.
Named alongside Sankey is Simon Gorringe, a UK-focused industrials specialist who joined Deutsche from BAML in 2013, and Reinhard Kuehn, who focuses on deals within the automotive and capital goods sectors. Kuehn was promoted to managing director in March after more than 13 years at the bank.
Goldman Sachs
among the most senior City bankers is Goldman's Anthony Gutman, co-head of UK investment banking. Gutman, who has deep relationships with many UK blue-chip companies, has worked on landmark deals including the 2016 sale of Formula One by private equity firm CVC Capital Partners.
Richard Cormack, head of ECM for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, is also listed as an adviser to Aston Martin. He also worked on the TI Fluid deal in 2017. The third Goldman banker on the IPO is Duncan Stewart, a corporate broking specialist. He was promoted to MD last year after working on a number of high-profile UK IPOs, including ContourGlobal's $400m listing.
JPMorgan
JPMorgan has brought in Robbie Constant, a senior corporate broker who focuses on the industrials sector, alongside the head of its ECM business in the UK, Nicholas Hall.
Big-ticket deals that Constant has worked on this year include advising GKN on its long-running takeover by rival Melrose, a deal worth $10.5bn.
Luca Santini, an MD who focuses on the industrials sector and began his career at JPMorgan in 2003, was also named on Wednesday's statement.
Lazard
Lazard is acting as financial adviser to Aston Martin with Charlie Foreman, an MD who leads both its capital markets advisory business and financial sponsors division in the UK, named on the transaction.
Foreman, another adviser on the TI Fluid deal, has worked on some of Lazard's biggest advisory mandates in recent years, including AB InBev's £71bn takeover of SABMiller in 2015.
Riccardo Villa, a director at the bank who focuses on financial sponsors and sovereign wealth funds, is also advising Aston Martin as is vice-president Simon Chambers, who has spent his career at Lazard since joining in 2009.
CORRECTION: This article was updated to clarify that Reinhard Kuehn spent 13 years at Deutsche Bank, not 14 as previously reported.
Reading the article above DB was a lead advisor and ‘global coordinator’ so I assume took a large position and then sold/pre sold this on to their global clients. Seems unlikely that they’d put anything but a buy rating out on it until they had managed to pass on the risk and bank some profit. I assume that is now done so they can be more honest in their assessment of the shares.
DB has been trouble for years and will most likely merge with Commerz not that this has anything to do with the usual sharp practise mentioned above.
The three banks have been named as joint global co-ordinators for the deal, which was announced on Wednesday. It follows months of speculation that the iconic brand, featured heavily in the James Bond film series, was set to go public.
News of the planned initial public offering comes in one of the quietest summer periods for Europe's equity bankers on record and will boost London's IPO market. So far in 2018, 43 deals worth $6.3bn have priced in the UK, compared with 56 worth a combined $6.9bn at the same point last year, according to Dealogic.
Alongside the global co-ordinators, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, HSBC and UniCredit are working as bookrunners, with independent investment bank Lazard offering financial advice to Aston Martin. Co-lead managers are CI Capital, Houlihan Lokey, Numis Securities and Mediobanca.
Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank's relationship with Aston Martin stretches back many years, with the German group having advised the carmaker on the issuance of high-yield bonds in both 2011 and last year.
Scroll for more of this story
For the IPO, Deutsche's global head of equity syndicate and co-head of equity capital markets in Europe, Edward Sankey, is involved. Sankey has a history of working on big IPOs in the auto sector, having advised on the TI Fluid Systems deal late last year.
Named alongside Sankey is Simon Gorringe, a UK-focused industrials specialist who joined Deutsche from BAML in 2013, and Reinhard Kuehn, who focuses on deals within the automotive and capital goods sectors. Kuehn was promoted to managing director in March after more than 13 years at the bank.
Goldman Sachs
among the most senior City bankers is Goldman's Anthony Gutman, co-head of UK investment banking. Gutman, who has deep relationships with many UK blue-chip companies, has worked on landmark deals including the 2016 sale of Formula One by private equity firm CVC Capital Partners.
Richard Cormack, head of ECM for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, is also listed as an adviser to Aston Martin. He also worked on the TI Fluid deal in 2017. The third Goldman banker on the IPO is Duncan Stewart, a corporate broking specialist. He was promoted to MD last year after working on a number of high-profile UK IPOs, including ContourGlobal's $400m listing.
JPMorgan
JPMorgan has brought in Robbie Constant, a senior corporate broker who focuses on the industrials sector, alongside the head of its ECM business in the UK, Nicholas Hall.
Big-ticket deals that Constant has worked on this year include advising GKN on its long-running takeover by rival Melrose, a deal worth $10.5bn.
Luca Santini, an MD who focuses on the industrials sector and began his career at JPMorgan in 2003, was also named on Wednesday's statement.
Lazard
Lazard is acting as financial adviser to Aston Martin with Charlie Foreman, an MD who leads both its capital markets advisory business and financial sponsors division in the UK, named on the transaction.
Foreman, another adviser on the TI Fluid deal, has worked on some of Lazard's biggest advisory mandates in recent years, including AB InBev's £71bn takeover of SABMiller in 2015.
Riccardo Villa, a director at the bank who focuses on financial sponsors and sovereign wealth funds, is also advising Aston Martin as is vice-president Simon Chambers, who has spent his career at Lazard since joining in 2009.
CORRECTION: This article was updated to clarify that Reinhard Kuehn spent 13 years at Deutsche Bank, not 14 as previously reported.
Reading the article above DB was a lead advisor and ‘global coordinator’ so I assume took a large position and then sold/pre sold this on to their global clients. Seems unlikely that they’d put anything but a buy rating out on it until they had managed to pass on the risk and bank some profit. I assume that is now done so they can be more honest in their assessment of the shares.
DB has been trouble for years and will most likely merge with Commerz not that this has anything to do with the usual sharp practise mentioned above.
Thank you Bobajobbob.
One aspect which puzzles me is this.
The original investors sold part of their holdings at let us call it, a generous price. I am not sure if they all sold in equal proportions, but assuming that to keep it simple, 25% achieved the higher price, but now their remaining 75% is only worth roughly half that value.
If a house is worth say £1m, why hype up the marketing, then sell 25% of it at £1.5m (unit) and the rest at £750,000?
In total you receive less than £1m.
If there was pre-float hype, is it therefore possible that the IPO investors were not the only victims?
I'd think the IPO folk were locked in for probably a 24 month period? It'll be in the small print somewhere. I tend to ignore the "experts", it's usually "expert John Rogers, who has a 48% success rate, reiterated his sell rating with a target of X" - i.e. less reliable than flipping a coin. Fundamentals are king.
Reading the article above DB was a lead advisor and ‘global coordinator’ so I assume took a large position and then sold/pre sold this on to their global clients. Seems unlikely that they’d put anything but a buy rating out on it until they had managed to pass on the risk and bank some profit. I assume that is now done so they can be more honest in their assessment of the shares.
DB has been trouble for years and will most likely merge with Commerz not that this has anything to do with the usual sharp practise mentioned above.
[/quote]
Dear B. I don't want to steal your thunder, but despite your very detailed account of all the people who had a slice of the AML pie and hence had an interest in a high valuation your conclusion is a bit simple.
The banks "don't take a share of the offering and then re-sell it" Those were called underwriters in the old days. They "underwrote" the issue i.e guaranteed the issuer the value when they went public and hence took a position in the stock. In connection with the bookbuilding this underwriting is no longer taking place. The bookbuilding is a mix and match excercise where different buyers indicate how many shares they would take at a given price. When the offering is well balanced, the book-runner (bank) seeks to pitch the price at a level where everybody is satisfied in order to promote an orderly development in the share-price. Before and during the offering period the banks are not allowed to publish any sort of research on the stock. There is simply an embargo on that in order to avoid that they are talking up the stock. So your reference to the Deutsche analyst is factually wrong. Secondly, the equity research departments of the banks have chinese walls to the Corporate Finance side of the banks. These Chinese walls are taken seriously as big fines will be imposed to banks if they are broken. The only one that has consistently talked up the price is Andy Palmer. He has simply made it too difficult for himself and now has to live with the consequences.
No - i think the demise of the AML stock is down to a number of factors:
- AML has not delivered after the listing
- A Palmer has not be able to convince shareholders about his "luxury" position and "recession proof model"
- the lock-up is expiring putting further downward pressure on the stock
Further to that, the lead banks are nearly always short the stock at the beginning of the process. However, they have a so-called Greenshoe Option to cover that short, which lasts for a month.
The AML flotation had a 10% Greenshoe.
The way it works is that the banks over-allocate shares. When they are telling investors how many shares they have bought, they actually allocate 110% of the deal. The banks are now short the stock. If in the share price falls, the banks can choose to buy shares back from the market to support the share price, closing out some or all of their short in the process. If the share price rises, they just exercise their Greenshoe and cover the short with those additional shares.
The AML flotation had a 10% Greenshoe.
The way it works is that the banks over-allocate shares. When they are telling investors how many shares they have bought, they actually allocate 110% of the deal. The banks are now short the stock. If in the share price falls, the banks can choose to buy shares back from the market to support the share price, closing out some or all of their short in the process. If the share price rises, they just exercise their Greenshoe and cover the short with those additional shares.
Harsh:
Aston Martin ‘more like BMW than Ferrari’ according to Deutsche Bank
“We observed much higher volatility in demand versus its peer, Ferrari, closer in fact to the premium OEMs, like BMW,”
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/new...
Aston Martin ‘more like BMW than Ferrari’ according to Deutsche Bank
“We observed much higher volatility in demand versus its peer, Ferrari, closer in fact to the premium OEMs, like BMW,”
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/new...
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