AML - Stock Market Listing

[Jon39]

AstonZagato said:

Certainly the case for me.
My Vanquish S Ultimate gives me more of a fizz than any of the current models.

Looking at your profile AZ, might you consider a DBX, when your Rsnge Rover is due for replacement ?

[Petrus1983]

Down 10% again today with a new market cap of £871m - it’s crazy to think that a global car company is worth 1/50th of a tweeting app. Surely some of the big investors will start to wonder if getting some money out is better than none at this point.

Just to confirm I no longer hold shares but really hoped the fortunes of AM would be turned around as they make beautiful cars.

[pschlute]

It is a very sad state of affairs.

The wisdom of going public has been debated to death. Perhaps without the new financing (loans), AM would not have been able to create new models, I do not know.

The worth of a company is all enshrined in its products. But the one thing AM has that few other motor company does, is its name. What is that worth ?

£750m is my guess.

[LooneyTunes]

Jon39 said:

LooneyTunes said:

... as it can't deal with the towing needs (which hands an easy sale to JLR when I decide to update my FFRR).

Is that inability dictated by the particular weights of each tow vehicle and caravan/trailer ?

If so, presumably the Range Rover is heavier than DBX.

No caravans! Horse/car/plant trailers mainly. A decent 3-axle car trailer can be knocking on the door of 1t before you load it up, so it’s quite easy to end up needing 3t+ capacity.

AIUI it’s not strictly weight based but manufacturer defined (although weight does come into it).
https://www.gov.uk/towing-with-car/weight-and-widt...

[Ninja59]

Minglar said:

Hi Jon

Yes I’ve seen the video and for sure the early new Vantages are slipping a bit. But one thing I have noticed is that the total number of cars available on the AM pre-owned site has dramatically reduced in the last few months, in particular Vanquish. That suggests to me that owners are keeping hold of their previous generation cars for longer as opposed to “upgrading” to any of the newer models in the current range. Supply of certain Gaydon cars is definitely a lot lower of late. As for the future who knows? I still think AMs future will be driven by external factors beyond its control and a larger parent company will probably come in and scoop up the mess. It would be nice if one of them covered the debts now and took it on but even for a paltry few billion pounds why would they bother?

LSE has been very busy today with the usual squabbles as I’m sure Peavey123 is well aware!

Best Regards

Minglar

Some dealerships are holding back on stock showing on the timeless pre-owned site. At least the new vantage, as I am aware of a few cars not available on the site,but most definitely are sat at a couple of dealerships when I was searching, to the point I was offered one of those said cars.

[LooneyTunes]

Ninja59 said:

Some dealerships are holding back on stock showing on the timeless pre-owned site. At least the new vantage, as I am aware of a few cars not available on the site,but most definitely are sat at a couple of dealerships when I was searching, to the point I was offered one of those said cars.

Interesting. Wonder if they’re genuinely newly arrived, dealers decision not to list yet, or pressure from AM to create perception of sales/scarcity?

[Minglar]

LooneyTunes said:

Ninja59 said:

Some dealerships are holding back on stock showing on the timeless pre-owned site. At least the new vantage, as I am aware of a few cars not available on the site,but most definitely are sat at a couple of dealerships when I was searching, to the point I was offered one of those said cars.

Interesting. Wonder if they’re genuinely newly arrived, dealers decision not to list yet, or pressure from AM to create perception of sales/scarcity?

Must admit that’s the first I’ve heard of that. As I said the number of cars apparently available on the pre-owned website has definitely dwindled over the last few months. I just assumed that was because people were either buying the Gaydon cars due to their NA engines, or perhaps owners were holding on to them for longer, hence the lack of supply. For a business which desperately needs to sell cars and increase revenues, it seems a strange strategy not to openly advertise vehicles for sale. Who knows with AM nowadays though!

Best Regards

Minglar

[Peavey123]

or dealer loading?

[SpeckledJim]

Minglar said:

LooneyTunes said:

Ninja59 said:

Some dealerships are holding back on stock showing on the timeless pre-owned site. At least the new vantage, as I am aware of a few cars not available on the site,but most definitely are sat at a couple of dealerships when I was searching, to the point I was offered one of those said cars.

Interesting. Wonder if they’re genuinely newly arrived, dealers decision not to list yet, or pressure from AM to create perception of sales/scarcity?

Must admit that’s the first I’ve heard of that. As I said the number of cars apparently available on the pre-owned website has definitely dwindled over the last few months. I just assumed that was because people were either buying the Gaydon cars due to their NA engines, or perhaps owners were holding on to them for longer, hence the lack of supply. For a business which desperately needs to sell cars and increase revenues, it seems a strange strategy not to openly advertise vehicles for sale. Who knows with AM nowadays though!

Best Regards

Minglar

IME it's not unusual for there to be careful management of what goes onto the official used sites for the luxury manufacturers. A mixture of stick and carrot is used to make sure a glut of cars of similar specs and prices doesn't hit the market at the same time.

For good reason, really. Managing residuals is good for everyone, but individual dealership sales managers aren't incentivised to think strategically. They want to be shifting the tin and getting to survive another month.

[Minglar]

Peavey123 said:

or dealer loading?

Well as you know AM do like to quote wholesale numbers rather than retails, and if you believe Mr Stroll, new cars are now only built to order. Dealer loading has been a problem for a while, in particular at the end of 2019 when the fire sale of new Vantages took place on very attractive leasing terms. But the post above was referring to the AM pre-owned site, which lists cars that have been registered and owned by real customers, or dealer demonstrators, prior to being offered for sale through the official AM dealer network. One thing I would add, is that this part of the PH world is populated by people who own or have owned AM vehicles, and the vast majority have a unwavering passion for the cars and the company, and take no satisfaction in seeing how the current stock price is performing.

Best Regards

Minglar

[cardigankid]

On the subject of the new management team from Ferrari, is the question not, whether you would buy one of the new V6 engined 296GTB's?

All I know of it is what the YouTube pundits think, but I can't say it appeals to me, and this is the problem. The first stage to electrification is to introduce hybrids. Hybrids have greats statistics on paper, as I see it, because they simply combine the electric power with the power of the super / turbocharged engines, so the power to weight ratio looks wonderful. However, the additional weight of the batteries is significant, and sooner or later, you end up relying on the engine alone, but still with the weight penalty.

Therefore, the danger is that the upcoming generation of Astons are going to be hybrid, like it or not. The current range may be as good as it is ever going to get. Sorry if I sound like a cracked record, but we need to be investing in the cars, not the shares. They are as good as gone already.

[Petrus1983]

680p with a £790m cap - the vultures must surely be circling soon. But perhaps it is best off in private hands away from the stock market binoculars?

[LooneyTunes]

Petrus1983 said:

680p with a £790m cap - the vultures must surely be circling soon. But perhaps it is best off in private hands away from the stock market binoculars?

Not sure that public vs private ownership is the issue.

If the valuation drops lower then maybe you’d get PE houses (this is who you mean by “vultures”?) sniffing around but, being realistic, the debt pile and other much discussed issues affecting the company and low volume car makers remain. Unless you get closer to the edge and can restructure the debt significantly. But then what? What’s your strategy to unlock value and what’s your exit?

If you head back towards private ownership then a sale to a major auto group still seems like the only viable route.

Something that did get me thinking the other day though: does anyone know how much Stroll personally put into the purchase?

[Peavey123]

Stroll recently said 1bn into Aston Martin, but I reckon that is F1 and AML.L.

My guess would be around 5/600m, and maybe some bonds on top of that, purely for AML.L.
Bondholders are undisclosed so we will never know.

[LooneyTunes]

Peavey123 said:

Stroll recently said 1bn into Aston Martin, but I reckon that is F1 and AML.L.

My guess would be around 5/600m, and maybe some bonds on top of that, purely for AML.L.
Bondholders are undisclosed so we will never know.

The first round of investment was involved in was sub-20% @ sub £200 million. There have been a couple of reports of single figure £millions of additional purchases but, overall I would be most surprised if Stroll had personally put in £5-600 million.

The reason for my curiosity is that it would be interesting to understand what leverage he’s getting from his actual cash stake in AM over to F1.

[Jon39]

Minglar said:

Well as you know AM do like to quote wholesale numbers rather than retails, ......

You will already know this Richard, but it might be of interest to someone.

Aston Martin (the Company), sell their cars to their appointed dealers.
Therefore, that is the number of vehicles AML quite rightly, count as their sales.
Their accounts always used to show only that figure. It was during the AP era, that dealer sales (retail) began to be published.
I guess AML use the registration of each new car warranty, as their source for the retail numbers.

[Jon39]

LooneyTunes said:

Something that did get me thinking the other day though: does anyone know how much Stroll personally put into the purchase?

I have copies of the documents, Spring 2020 I think. You don't want me to wade through them all do you?
They are viewable on the Aston Martin website (Investors section).

Mr. Stroll formed a consortium, which included Lord Anthony Bamford and others. Therefore the figure mentioned at the time, was not all his own money.
The total injection of capital also included a share placing and then a rights issue, so presumably most of that was not from LS, although I think he did participate in the rights issue (Mercedes-Benz said they would not).

I don't like the flow of money from AML, to the privately owned racing team.
For such a famous brand name, surely others should pay AML to use the name. Obviously no mention of the annual amount, but I have read estimates of £12 million and more recently £24 million.
Once the Aston Martin name replaced Racing Point, sponsorship money must have dropped from the sky. Numerous new sponsors were announced. Should that help from AML have been sufficient, without taking a big fee from a Company short of spare cash ?

Edited by Jon39 on Tuesday 10th May 19:14

[SpeckledJim]

A complicated and clever swizz is afoot, I'm sure.

Stroll might be the Donald Trump of the car industry, but he's not daft.

[KevinBird]

I’m sure TM told LS that the place was a basket case and got shown the door. He did the same thing at AMG, told the truth about 4 cylinder engines not being AMG and also shown the door. Integrity can cost.

LS now has a proven Ferrari CEO but I think he's past his sell by

All a lot of work and cost to get your son occasional into Q2

Sadly I think AML are toast

Edited by KevinBird on Tuesday 10th May 21:51

[RichB]

KevinBird said:

I’m sure TB told LS that the place was a basket case and got shown the door.

Do you mean Tobias Moers (TM)?