AML - Stock Market Listing
Discussion
Peavey123 said:
Someone big is selling, the sp doesn't disintegrate like this without a huge seller.
Well there’s no question that the SP has slipped an awful lot since August last year, and a large chunk of that move took place before the war in Ukraine broke out. AM is currently roughly 75% below the highs seen last year, and about 50% lower since the end of February. But I would like to know why you think there is a huge seller. My personal view is that this move is mainly retail driven, a combination of margin calls and weak stops. That’s not to say that the current situation for AM is not perilous. Bankruptcy or a share dilution/fund raise looks very likely to me if the current economic conditions prevail. But daily volumes are shown here, and they don’t look abnormally large to me. https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/AML/asto...
As you know an RNS will need to be issued if certain conditions prevail. I may have missed it, but I haven’t seen a recent RNS suggesting there has been one huge seller.
Best Regards
Minglar
Large sellers don't announce via RNS until they have sold all their shares, as they want the best price. If they tell everyone beforehand....well you can guess why they don't.
ie if Merc were selling, they'd agree a price with MMs, it would take weeks/months, then they would notify they are under 3% when done/almost done.
The reason I think someone big is selling is because most AML shares are held by insiders. If this was retail traders selling, I doubt it would have lasted this long.
I have IG level II data, and there are big chunks getting sold which don't come through on free trading services, who knows how MMs mask them, but I can assure you over 40,000 were sold in big chunks earlier today.
I just checked and there is a 113k share sale again within last 30 mins.
That's all I know.
This is in freefall now, and just for the record, I do not short ANY single companies.
ie if Merc were selling, they'd agree a price with MMs, it would take weeks/months, then they would notify they are under 3% when done/almost done.
The reason I think someone big is selling is because most AML shares are held by insiders. If this was retail traders selling, I doubt it would have lasted this long.
I have IG level II data, and there are big chunks getting sold which don't come through on free trading services, who knows how MMs mask them, but I can assure you over 40,000 were sold in big chunks earlier today.
I just checked and there is a 113k share sale again within last 30 mins.
That's all I know.
This is in freefall now, and just for the record, I do not short ANY single companies.
Peavey123 said:
Large sellers don't announce via RNS until they have sold all their shares, as they want the best price. If they tell everyone beforehand....well you can guess why they don't.
ie if Merc were selling, they'd agree a price with MMs, it would take weeks/months, then they would notify they are under 3% when done/almost done.
The reason I think someone big is selling is because most AML shares are held by insiders. If this was retail traders selling, I doubt it would have lasted this long.
I have IG level II data, and there are big chunks getting sold which don't come through on free trading services, who knows how MMs mask them, but I can assure you over 40,000 were sold in big chunks earlier today.
I just checked and there is a 113k share sale again within last 30 mins.
That's all I know.
This is in freefall now, and just for the record, I do not short ANY single companies.
Fair enough, and I have posted myself on here that some of the price action from the highs seen last year was hard to fathom, and would suggest that someone had a large stick and an axe to grind. The slide from £21 to the low teens generally occurred in liquid markets, before the war started, before inflation reared its ugly head, and before most Central Banks turned hawkish. I think some of the problem now is that a lot of retail investors seem to think these levels are cheap, so they buy, and then leave relatively tight stops. Combine that with poor liquidity and nervous market sentiment and the market tends to overshoot, or I guess it’s maybe undershoot when it’s heading lower?! But you know what I mean. If this continues AMs Market Cap will soon be close to half of outstanding debt. Imho that is not a sustainable position and it will only cause the vultures to circle with even more venom. We shall see I guess. ie if Merc were selling, they'd agree a price with MMs, it would take weeks/months, then they would notify they are under 3% when done/almost done.
The reason I think someone big is selling is because most AML shares are held by insiders. If this was retail traders selling, I doubt it would have lasted this long.
I have IG level II data, and there are big chunks getting sold which don't come through on free trading services, who knows how MMs mask them, but I can assure you over 40,000 were sold in big chunks earlier today.
I just checked and there is a 113k share sale again within last 30 mins.
That's all I know.
This is in freefall now, and just for the record, I do not short ANY single companies.
Best Regards
Minglar
Edited by Minglar on Monday 13th June 16:06
Mercedes has held shares in Aston Martin since 2013, when the Company was still private.
They have never bought the shares. They have been given to them, as newly issued shares in accordance with the agreements for AML to be allowed to buy M-B engines and electronics etc.
I would be most surprised if they were selling any shares now.
Any sale proceeds would mean nothing at all to Mercedes-Benz.
Expect you know what their annual revenue and profits are. Make a long distance telephone number look short.
They were due to receive more shares early this year, but for some reason it has been put back to next year.
At present, Mercedes might spend more time thinking about Tesla, than Aston Martin.
You make goood point Minglar, I have considered this too. I am not saying I am right, just trying to work out how this sustained fall can continue and for how long.
Illiquidity is only really just starting now as the central banks pull back.
I agree about retail investors, they try to catch a falling knife, then it drops the next day, same most days.
I can assure you I am a private investor with no axe to grind, and the last thing I want to see is people losing jobs. But if that happens then the blame lies squarely with Stroll.
The general markets malaise doesn't stop until retail is most wiped out like the dot com days. It's a shame every generation has to have this kind of event, and then forget the lessons learned. But we are just at the start imo...
Illiquidity is only really just starting now as the central banks pull back.
I agree about retail investors, they try to catch a falling knife, then it drops the next day, same most days.
I can assure you I am a private investor with no axe to grind, and the last thing I want to see is people losing jobs. But if that happens then the blame lies squarely with Stroll.
The general markets malaise doesn't stop until retail is most wiped out like the dot com days. It's a shame every generation has to have this kind of event, and then forget the lessons learned. But we are just at the start imo...
Minglar said:
Fair enough, and I have posted myself on here that some of the price action from the highs seen last year was hard to fathom, and would suggest that someone had a large stick and an axe to grind. The slide from £21 to the low teens generally occurred in liquid markets, before the war started, before inflation reared its ugly head, and before most Central Banks turned hawkish. I think some of the problem now is that a lot of retail investors seem to think these levels are cheap, so they buy, and then leave relatively tight stops. Combine that with poor liquidity and nervous market sentiment and the market tends to overshoot, or I guess it’s maybe undershoot when it’s heading lower?! But you know what I mean. If this continues AMs Market Cap will soon be close to half of outstanding debt. Imho that is not a sustainable position and it will only cause the vultures to circle with even more venom. We shall see I guess.
Best Regards
Minglar
Best Regards
Minglar
Edited by Minglar on Monday 13th June 16:06
Peavey123 said:
... The general markets malaise doesn't stop until retail is most wiped out like the dot com days. It's a shame every generation has to have this kind of event, and then forget the lessons learned. But we are just at the start imo...
I don't know how old you are, so perhaps you were not investing at the time of the dotcom bubble.
I invest very long-term, so am never looking for the next 'whizz stock'.
In 1998 and 1999 many got sucked in (small investors, many new to equities and also professionals (using their clients money).
New tech was all the rage. Share prices zoomed up and punters did not want to be left behind. New issues for tiny new start loss making tech businesses, were being offered for huge valuations and being bought. Many were valued at far more than enormous established profitable businesses.
My investment performance fell behind then, because I did not see any reason to get involved. The chances of picking a future winner were almost nil.
After the crash, which went on for a long time, the investors remaining money moved back into traditional businesses. I benefited immediately from that, because I was already holding them.
They ignored the fundamentals and trusted that tech was going to immediately change the world. In reality it took much longer and only a very few businesses became the major tech players. Many of the tech firms went bust.
Easy to avoid some of these events if you take a step back, trust your own judgement and ignore the herd mentality, even while they are initially doing very well.
Edited by Jon39 on Monday 13th June 17:12
I remember it well. I started investing a few years before.
I made quick easy money in a couple, sold and moved on. But it was peanuts because everything was oversubscribed at the IPO.
Were you a member of infoex at Hemscott? Those were the days!
I am long term value investor too, but mostly in cash right now.
Valuations are still way too high, I can't find one company that looks realistic.
I had a fair few Berkshire Hathaway B shares too, but even they are dropping.
AML looked promising when Stroll took over, and everyone was excited, but I think he has blown it. "British Ferrari" is a huge mistake imho.
It was 50/50 chances when he took over, but now it's a real long shot.
I had huge admiration for Ken Gregor, outgoing CFO, who is a man of principal. Alarm bells were ringing at his departure.
27p old money, closing price today.
I don't know how old you are, so perhaps you were not investing at the time of the dotcom bubble.
I invest very long-term, so am never looking for the next 'whizz stock'.
In 1998 and 1999 many got sucked in (small investors, many new to equities and also professionals (using their clients money).
New tech was all the rage. Share prices zoomed up and punters did not want to be left behind. New issues for tiny new start loss making tech businesses, were being offered for huge valuations and being bought. Many were valued at far more than enormous established profitable businesses.
My investment performance fell behind then, because I did not see any reason to get involved. The chances of picking a future winner were almost nil. Many of the firms went bust.
After the crash, which went on for a long time, the investors remaining money moved back into traditional businesses. I benefited immediately from that, because I was already holding them.
They ignired the fundamentals and trusted that tech was going to immediately change the world. In reality it took much longer and only a very few businesses became the major tech players.
Easy to avoid some of these events if you take a step back, trust your own judgement and ignore the herd mentality, even while they are initially doing very well.
I made quick easy money in a couple, sold and moved on. But it was peanuts because everything was oversubscribed at the IPO.
Were you a member of infoex at Hemscott? Those were the days!
I am long term value investor too, but mostly in cash right now.
Valuations are still way too high, I can't find one company that looks realistic.
I had a fair few Berkshire Hathaway B shares too, but even they are dropping.
AML looked promising when Stroll took over, and everyone was excited, but I think he has blown it. "British Ferrari" is a huge mistake imho.
It was 50/50 chances when he took over, but now it's a real long shot.
I had huge admiration for Ken Gregor, outgoing CFO, who is a man of principal. Alarm bells were ringing at his departure.
27p old money, closing price today.
Jon39 said:
I don't know how old you are, so perhaps you were not investing at the time of the dotcom bubble.
I invest very long-term, so am never looking for the next 'whizz stock'.
In 1998 and 1999 many got sucked in (small investors, many new to equities and also professionals (using their clients money).
New tech was all the rage. Share prices zoomed up and punters did not want to be left behind. New issues for tiny new start loss making tech businesses, were being offered for huge valuations and being bought. Many were valued at far more than enormous established profitable businesses.
My investment performance fell behind then, because I did not see any reason to get involved. The chances of picking a future winner were almost nil. Many of the firms went bust.
After the crash, which went on for a long time, the investors remaining money moved back into traditional businesses. I benefited immediately from that, because I was already holding them.
They ignired the fundamentals and trusted that tech was going to immediately change the world. In reality it took much longer and only a very few businesses became the major tech players.
Easy to avoid some of these events if you take a step back, trust your own judgement and ignore the herd mentality, even while they are initially doing very well.
Edited by Jon39 on Monday 13th June 17:06
Peavey123 said:
I remember it well. I started investing a few years before.
I made quick easy money in a couple, sold and moved on. But it was peanuts because everything was oversubscribed at the IPO.
Were you a member of infoex at Hemscott? Those were the days!
I am long term value investor too, but mostly in cash right now.
Valuations are still way too high, I can't find one company that looks realistic.
I had a fair few Berkshire Hathaway B shares too, but even they are dropping.
AML looked promising when Stroll took over, and everyone was excited, but I think he has blown it. "British Ferrari" is a huge mistake imho.
It was 50/50 chances when he took over, but now it's a real long shot.
I had huge admiration for Ken Gregor, outgoing CFO, who is a man of principal. Alarm bells were ringing at his departure.
27p old money, closing price today.
I made quick easy money in a couple, sold and moved on. But it was peanuts because everything was oversubscribed at the IPO.
Were you a member of infoex at Hemscott? Those were the days!
I am long term value investor too, but mostly in cash right now.
Valuations are still way too high, I can't find one company that looks realistic.
I had a fair few Berkshire Hathaway B shares too, but even they are dropping.
AML looked promising when Stroll took over, and everyone was excited, but I think he has blown it. "British Ferrari" is a huge mistake imho.
It was 50/50 chances when he took over, but now it's a real long shot.
I had huge admiration for Ken Gregor, outgoing CFO, who is a man of principal. Alarm bells were ringing at his departure.
27p old money, closing price today.
You were tempted then, but perhaps those oversubscribed IPOs saved you from trouble.
Cannot remember infoex, but I did have an email with hemscott. Think they provided financial information.
Holding mostly cash must mean you move in and out. I don't do that because I am hopeless at predicting the future. That strategy has really made money so far this year. Cash for me would have been a disaster. YTD the oil and tobacco sectors have really come alive, so I have unexpectedly 'ridden the wave' and have an overall increase of +18.81% (end of last week) FTSE Index -3.85%.
With AML, 109 years of their financial history seem to indicate, that sustainable profitability is impossible. Plenty of good businessmen have tried, one of the best periods being under Ford ownership, with the highly popular DB7 then the very successful VH cars DB9, Vantage and DBS. Peak sales records, but even then, with nil debt and Ford paying development costs and providing the Gaydon factory, profits were very modest.
Repeatedly though, rescuers are excited by the business and it is wonderful that they keep putting their money in to keep it going.
I think Mercedes-Benz might be a bit more 'hard nosed' about even thinking about getting involved. They burnt their fingers with Chrysler (remember the SLK with a Chrysler body?) and have even tried to sell a Renault van and Nissan Pickup, both badged Mercedes-Benz. Neither were successful. Ford eventualy found AML was just an expensive diversion.
AdamV12V said:
You're not into ethical investing then Jon? 
Best to keep ethical and investing seperate.
One way to sell more funds though, probably makes customers feel better, but the 'sin' businesses carry on. In fact they are often the firms who do not need to raise more capital. BAT is at present buying back £2,000,000,000 of their own shares for cancellation.
So called ethical investment funds, particularly at present, struggle to obtain top performance.
.
Perhaps best to invest concentrating on making money, when that is working, then do the 'green' things.
Think I have only bought one car per decade, so that must put me on the ethical side of car pollution, during initial manufacture. .
Note to self - Try to use the Vantage more this year. All that zero emissions when hibernating, can be overdone.
Had better make an MoT appointment.
Edited by Jon39 on Monday 13th June 20:54
This of course tells us nothing about where the share price will go next.
Obviously day to day trading pushes the share price in various directions.
However, the purple line shows that since August 2021, there has been (on average) a share price decline at a constant rate.
We can see a couple of 'dead cat bounces', the first one followed large share purchases by two directors.
What all this means, who knows, but perhaps interesting.
The overall market is down though (although the ftse is holding up better than some other indexes)
If we have a hard recession and interest rates climb as predicted I don’t know how motivated Stroll and his investment partners are to keep going at this.
I am guessing Mr Moers and others who have left with large chunks of vested stock are busy selling to get their cash out? But even that doesn’t get to the volumes shared above.
Some funds can only hold stock that meets certain criteria, with the fall in AM stock and its subsequent market cap I wonder if the stock no longer meets the criteria of a fund and therefore it is exiting from it? (All wild guesses - interested to hear from those smarter than me!)
If we have a hard recession and interest rates climb as predicted I don’t know how motivated Stroll and his investment partners are to keep going at this.
I am guessing Mr Moers and others who have left with large chunks of vested stock are busy selling to get their cash out? But even that doesn’t get to the volumes shared above.
Some funds can only hold stock that meets certain criteria, with the fall in AM stock and its subsequent market cap I wonder if the stock no longer meets the criteria of a fund and therefore it is exiting from it? (All wild guesses - interested to hear from those smarter than me!)
Edited by oilit on Wednesday 15th June 07:31
As an investment, it is poor, but then it always was. AML is not PLC material.
Why should Mercedes buying the shares cheap, if indeed that is what happens, be a problem? Why should Mercedes pay off the massive debt, they never incurred it? Why should they pay for IP rights over and above, or indeed that much for the bases at Gaydon and elsewhere, which are of little real use to anyone else?
At least the company, and presumably the brand, and the factory, and any IP, would be in the hands of the people best able to manage them. Surely any investment is best made in essential production facilities, design and key staff rather than paying off fatcats of one description or another? It may a be a golden opportunity to be rid of unnecessary costs including F1 and any other non-core operations.
All that has happened is that AML has been seen as a chance to make a few quid out of a bogus IPO and the inevitable results have followed.
Why should Mercedes buying the shares cheap, if indeed that is what happens, be a problem? Why should Mercedes pay off the massive debt, they never incurred it? Why should they pay for IP rights over and above, or indeed that much for the bases at Gaydon and elsewhere, which are of little real use to anyone else?
At least the company, and presumably the brand, and the factory, and any IP, would be in the hands of the people best able to manage them. Surely any investment is best made in essential production facilities, design and key staff rather than paying off fatcats of one description or another? It may a be a golden opportunity to be rid of unnecessary costs including F1 and any other non-core operations.
All that has happened is that AML has been seen as a chance to make a few quid out of a bogus IPO and the inevitable results have followed.
Going public in hindsight could be the moment and decision that doomed AML as an independent company. Maybe LS was a bit delusional in what he thought could actually be achieved.
How much more can it slide before action is taken? does it drop down another 30-40% market cap before the muck hits the fan?
How much more can it slide before action is taken? does it drop down another 30-40% market cap before the muck hits the fan?
In hindsight, the moment that Ford Motor Company sold the company, it was doomed, just as it was when David Brown sold it. These exclusive car makers can only exist with a mainstream parent company. That was obvious in the 70's, and with the advent of more and more tech, and the rocky seas presented by electrification it has only got more so. It is to state the obvious, to say that the level of investment needed, sustained over a long period, is colossal, but with it comes not only rock solid quality, but customer confidence. Given that, they can be brilliant, like Bentley under the control of VW.
It was wholly unrealistic to suggest at the IPO stage, that sales receipts could fund the development of new cars year after year.
It was wholly unrealistic to suggest at the IPO stage, that sales receipts could fund the development of new cars year after year.
Beckson said:
Going public in hindsight could be the moment and decision that doomed AML as an independent company.
Maybe LS was a bit delusional in what he thought could actually be achieved.
How much more can it slide before action is taken?
Does it drop down another 30-40% market cap before the muck hits the fan?
Maybe LS was a bit delusional in what he thought could actually be achieved.
How much more can it slide before action is taken?
Does it drop down another 30-40% market cap before the muck hits the fan?
I might have misunderstood your comment about LS, Beckson, but he was not involved in AML obtaining a public listing.
InvestIndustrial being a private equity business, works on shorter-term investment timescales. They wanted to sell their holding in AML and often the way for a seller to obtain the highest price, is through an Initial Public Offering.
Lots of good news, numerous new model announcements and a modest annual (one off as it turned out) profit, created great 'turnaround' excitement amongst City institutions (yum, yum) and also investors, who probably (love James Bond) cannot even explain fundamentals, resulting in a huge flotation valuation of £4·3 billion.
Result, everyone happy (although after a while, not the new retail shareholders).
..........................
Purely a guess, but the 'muck hits fan' point probably depends more on how long the working capital lasts, rather than market cap. Think the cash flow looks OK for this year.
Does LS now need AML to keep going ?
If his own F1 team had to change their name back to (say) Racing Point, then goodbye to all his lucrative recent sponsors and the AML annual fee.
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