AML - Stock Market Listing
Discussion
Nbgring said:
Agree! Aston Martin is a luxury niche brand which will always be way more expensive than a functionally similar competitor. Indeed the current Vantage delivers performance similar to a Cayman - and at the same time similar to a 911 or to an AMG GT. Success depends on desirability, less on price level.
There is no path for an AM entry level car below the Vantage, and there is no way towards a cheaper Vantage. Look at the Porsche sales numbers and the cost dilution or economies of scale...
I see no way that the stock market would favor any move of Aston towards a Cayman or towards Porsche like production numbers.
I wouldn't advocate Porsche numbers (remember AML get exemptions from all sorts of regulations because they qualify as small scale) but I do think there's still a niche there for them.There is no path for an AM entry level car below the Vantage, and there is no way towards a cheaper Vantage. Look at the Porsche sales numbers and the cost dilution or economies of scale...
I see no way that the stock market would favor any move of Aston towards a Cayman or towards Porsche like production numbers.
let's call it the £90-100k bracket. For that money, you can get a basic 911. Is that massively desirable? I'd wager not really. Probably won't give the same feel good factor as an Aston, nowhere near as noisy, not as powerful and you'll have to beg the dealer to sell you one then wait 2 years for it to turn up if you're lucky. I don't think it has the same status down the pub either.
Cayman? Nah, the Vantage is way above that. I have a GT4 on order, I've done a day at Silverstone in one and it's very different to the Vantage. It's not as powerful, nowhere near the same straight line speed, and is arguably aimed at a different audience altogether. That's the most powerful version, the others are further below a Vantage in just about ever area.
At that price level, the car would beat the current competition. The current model easily would - let alone one with a few styling tweaks. It would also be forgiven for stuff like the interior (The Cayman interior is 10+ years old now but it doesn't seem to hurt their sales!) and expensive options would boost the margin - Porsche are masters at this as I can bitterly attest having managed to spend £20k on options for a bloody Macan!
The problem is, at £130k the Vantage is up against stiff competition. Mac 540C (£135k), Porsche 911 GTS or even GT3 if you're lucky enough to be allowed to order one (£135k), R8 V10 (£130k) etc. F1 edition/highly optioned cars bat even higher than this into the next level of cars (Huracan, Portofino) and that's all new stuff - you can buy an awful lot of used supercar for £130k!
I'm sure Aston would much rather sell 000's of Vantages at an average of £110k than far fewer at £140k. Normally you'd want to sell less for a higher margin but their current sales numbers really are poor, with little hope of improving in the short term.
Either way, all the above is armchair conjecture and not going to happen. Mine was £155k with options, thanks to the PCP deal and paying the balloon when it ended I effectively got the car for under £120k. That feels about right for what I have (it's highly optioned) and I feel they could have sold far more if that was the original price point without having to put on a hugely loss making PCP deal.
Agent57 said:
Minglar said:
Best Regards
Minglar
No need to sign off every post like an email. The left column shows who posted. Just makes forums take longer to scroll through. Thanks.Minglar
Perhaps more akin to the best Laid Textured paper, handwritten letter, than an email.
Yes no need, but I appreciate receiving best regards.
It has been Mingler's unique tradition for (probably) 103 months.
Possibly like the historic grille and side strakes. Missed when ditched.
I’m afraid it’s an old habit from my time spent using Telex machines in the late 80’s. As Dewi said I think I’ve signed off every single post that way since I first set up my account in 2014, so I have no idea why today has been the day to trigger the response. Slow news day perhaps? Being compared to the grille and side strakes is quite comforting though! I know it’s not necessary and very few people across PH sign off in that way, but imho it does no harm to have some standards on here, as certain areas of PH can get very heated at times. I’m sure you are all more than capable of scrolling on by if it causes any distress though. Four extra lines isn’t going to make too much difference is it? Anyway, enough thread creep chaps. Jon won’t be happy!
Best Regards
Minglar
Best Regards
Minglar
Nbgring said:
I see no way that the stock market would favor any move of Aston towards a Cayman or towards Porsche like production numbers.
That is part of the problem, the stock market should have nothing to do with this. I don't think that this is about mathematical formulae, AM have always been an enthusiast's brand. If they produced a stylish, quality, fast car for circa £90k they would IMHO sell like hot cakes to those enthusiasts who can't afford the current range, but might later trade up. The other factor in the Boxster phenomenon was that they held their value.
Nbgring said:
I guess that AML can survive by developing a luxury product based on any of these supplier-BEV.
You cannot be serious. Nbgring said:
For the time being: The current Aston Martin cars represent the best line up ever............. The best you can do for the share price is simply buying one of these cars as long as it is still possible.
Agree 100%, absolutely the best range ever - bear in mind, for all this talk of timeless beauty, AML have produced a few clunkers. Dewi 2 said:
RichB said:
That depends on one's definition of best.
Quite !Will we see you at Brooklands Richard, with your beautiful elegant car?
Perhaps not, as I don't think you have posted on the AMHT topic.
cardigankid said:
Nbgring said:
I guess that AML can survive by developing a luxury product based on any of these supplier-BEV.
You cannot be serious. This state of affairs might make some of us quite cross, but AM have to react to the world as they find it, not as they wish it should be.
Beckson said:
but why would I buy now, when if I wait 6-8 months I'll get a " significantly refreshed" model? .
Because along with that “significant refresh” the company has also promised a “significant increase” in price. The aim of the DB11 is to compete with the Roma and Portofino M. I think both those are still about 50k higher than the Aston. Aston isn’t sitting around trying to figure out how to go down market as so many around here desperately wish. They are promising to improve the product to go upmarket.The debt, recession, inflation, etc. may just be too many headwinds to handle. As in many things, timing is important.
I don’t think a 6 cylinder, basic car.. let’s say no leather interior, no two piece rotors, no lot of things …does anything for the Aston brand except cheapen it.
Aston trades on exclusivity in a big way. Making them more affordable and less special is anathema to this. They would get an ass kicking from Audi, Mercedes, Porsche and BMW in less time than it would take many on here to write Aston’s obituary.
Jon39 said:
Compare the era models, by year of production sales figures, and Sports/GT are now unfortunately way down.
In the VH era, there was a mix of 'bread and butter' models and also some high price exotic specials. One-77 being one example.
For the 5 years 2012-2016 prior to the second century cars, Aston sold a total of 18,343 units with an ASP of 123k. I would argue that these were some fairly prosperous years with the economy and equity market performance.
For the following 5 years, 2017-2021, Aston sold a total of 26,973 units with ASP of 157k. This includes both the Covid mess and substantial destocking of dealers.
( It would be a pain for me to strip out the Vantage numbers versus the upmarket models but feel free to do it if you have the time and inclination. And yes presumably DBX sales impacted 2021 numbers, but in 2022 it looks like Aston is on a run rate of 3000 sport/Gt models, presumably most GT since the sport is so hated by so many.)
These are not terrible numbers by themselves, IMO. The problem isn’t so much volume, as much as what it’s cost Aston to get there. Demand seems fine by recent historical standards. It’s just an expensive business and getting more so. Thus why so many think the only real way forward is a tie up with somebody like Mercedes with deeper pockets and economies of scale.
I don’t think incremental tweaks to the pre 2nd Century lineup would have stemmed the flatline sales and ASP. But hey, that’s just my cocktail party opinion. May have been cheaper and better for shareholders in the short term but certainly not a long term strategy for the brand. Well, for that matter, as many have pointed out, ICE overall, isn’t much of a long term strategy.
Edit: and by the way, is there any 5 year period where Aston has sold more cars at a higher inflation adjusted ASP than the past 5 years?
Edited by GreasyHands on Thursday 11th August 16:35
GreasyHands said:
Aston trades on exclusivity in a big way. Making them more affordable and less special is anathema to this. They would get an ass kicking from Audi, Mercedes, Porsche and BMW in less time than it would take many on here to write Aston’s obituary.
We're only saying that what saved Porsche could save Aston. I don't buy into the super exclusive thing. All they would do is exclude half of their customer base. The difference of course with Porsche is anyone buying a Porsche product assumes rock solid engineering and build quality, which has got to help. " A car for the discerning driver with fast touring in mind", I think, was the concept. Not, "a plaything for the super-rich".
As to waiting for the next model, DB12 or whatever it happens to be, anything could happen, which is why I decided to buy a DB11, and that was after LS's initial statement. I'm very happy with the current looks and I want ICE power. Some of the styling exercises you see now are scary, and we could easily find ourselves faced with an odd looking car with a highly turbocharged, much smaller engine with hybrid electric power.
As an aside, I drove my first hybrid car…ever. OK, so I’m not an early adopter and known to be an old fart in some circles. I drove the McLaren Artura and really liked it. In general, I like 6 cyl engines, so that wasn’t an issue for me. Overall, I thought the car was great. Aside from price, the future looks pretty rosy from behind the wheel.
GreasyHands said:
As an aside, I drove my first hybrid car…ever. OK, so I’m not an early adopter and known to be an old fart in some circles. I drove the McLaren Artura and really liked it. In general, I like 6 cyl engines, so that wasn’t an issue for me. Overall, I thought the car was great. Aside from price, the future looks pretty rosy from behind the wheel.
Understand your point but that is a stop gap solution to full BEVcardigankid said:
The other factor in the Boxster phenomenon was that they held their value.
I bought my 1 year old 987.1 Boxster S with CPO for 63% of MSRP. I think would qualify as Aston style depreciation.Yes, the cars sold like hotcakes in the beginning but Porsche fanboys threw every insult they could at the cars. I’m not sure any car was ever so hated or maligned. It was and still is a great car, even if I’m not a hairdresser.
GreasyHands said:
Yes, the cars sold like hotcakes in the beginning but Porsche fanboys threw every insult they could at the cars. I’m not sure any car was ever so hated or maligned.
And they were all wrong - isn't that the point? I bought my first Boxster in 2000. A brilliant introduction to Porsche ownership, and made you keen to climb the ladder. ferrisbueller said:
cardigankid said:
The difference of course with Porsche is anyone buying a Porsche product assumes rock solid engineering and build quality, which has got to help.
I've no idea what that assumption is based on.Gassing Station | Aston Martin | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff