AML - Stock Market Listing
Discussion
nathwraith1 said:
Closed at 240p with a high of 249p today.
Indeed. I wonder if some of the move higher today was on the back of the F1 teams performance in the first practice session. Who knows what may happen this weekend. But as posted on the other thread, the car looks good, and Alonso may be the one to beat. We can all dream I guess!But it is definitely a solid close, after a good week, and near to the top of the recent range. Fingers crossed it continues to grind higher over the coming weeks.
Best Regards
Minglar
Keep an eye on the fundamentals Richard.
As Warren Buffett always says, ignore daily share prices and concentrate on the business financial prospects.
Talking of WB, do you read his annual letters?
We can all learn from the king of investment.
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters....
Perhaps try the 2022 letter first. (The AGM jamboree will be streamed online.)
You may be interested in his investment philosophy and how he freely admits his mistakes.
A wonderful elderly gentleman, who enjoys teaching investment and is so willing to do so.
I did beat him last year (by percentage measurement only unfortunately, not Dollars -
), but probably not difficult, because the UK market did so much better in 2022, than USA. Jon39 said:
Keep an eye on the fundamentals Richard.
As Warren Buffett always says, ignore daily share prices and concentrate on the business financial prospects.
Talking of WB, do you read his annual letters?
We can all learn from the king of investment.
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters....
Perhaps try the 2022 letter first. (The AGM jamboree will be streamed online.)
You may be interested in his investment philosophy and how he freely admits his mistakes.
A wonderful elderly gentleman, who enjoys teaching investment and is so willing to do so.
I did beat him last year (by percentage measurement only unfortunately, not Dollars -
), but probably not difficult, because the UK market did so much better in 2022, than USA. Best Regards
Minglar
Minglar said:
WB is a class act that’s for sure. Possibly a little dull for some, but the numbers speak for themselves.
Thank you very much Richard.
Ref. 'a little dull for some', you are probably thinking, does not believe in the exciting world of short-term holding, or trading.
Warren has his own description for that type of share buyer.
His business partner of 45 years, Charlie Munger, has a tendency to be more blunt, does not hold back and is often 'straight to the point'. -
'We have done well, because we are competing against idiots.'
(Definition of well, - the business started by Warren Buffett in 1965, is now worth $685 billion!)
Both gentlemen have now made so many quotations, all with an underlying truth, or hidden meaning.
So much common sense and often simplicity, in what they talk about in presentations and interviews.
A valuable resource, for people who want to know how to invest seriously.
Edited by Jon39 on Saturday 4th March 13:01
12TS said:
I did prepare a post about the results, but decided it was too negative and so scrapped it.
Although I didn't study the figures in such depth as SSO, you can sometimes step back and get a feeling about what is going on with a business.
It goes with the job, for a chairman to be confident, but two things stood out for me, which SSO has referenced in detail.
1. - The Q4 numbers suddenly appeared so much better, than in the first three quarters. Deliveries seemed to have been boosted considerably, particularly Valkyrie, which obviously has a significant effect on the revenue increase.
It did seem strange, that the improvement was so much in Q4, that a pre-tax profit could be reported.
That might have given the impression to share buyers, that the 'corner has now been turned' and at last profitability will follow.
2. - A turnaround was further emphasised in the statement from Lawrence Stroll.
“With the heavy lifting behind us, we are now poised to see the results of this transformation, starting in 2023.”
Put 1. and 2. together and share buyers might conclude this is now a good time to buy.
' ... poised to see the results of this transformation, starting in 2023' and a reported £16.3 million pre-tax profit in Q4 (although £495 million loss for the full year).
Share prices move in anticipation of an event, so it is best of course to purchase shares prior to a company achieving annual profits, when there has been a period of losses (with brief exceptions, losses pretty well go all the way back to 1913, in Aston Martins case).
The important point being, buying prior to anticipated profitability only works, if sustained annual profitability does actually occur.
There has recently been a significant increase in the share price, which perhaps has been influenced by the combination of 1. and 2.
Edited by Jon39 on Saturday 4th March 22:26
12TS said:
Well that was indeed an interesting read. My early conclusion on Wednesday was that the numbers looked better than the market potentially expected, and the move higher in the SP seemed to be a reasonable outcome. One more year before AML will need to get more funding? We all knew that the September raise was nowhere near enough, as many on here, including me, said at the time, so that’s not entirely surprising I guess. 2023 will no doubt be another interesting year. What does frustrate me is the detail on the Q4 numbers. I clearly didn’t analyse the data to the same degree as SSO, but if AML are reverting back to the old ways and loading dealers with cars that have no firm order or customer behind them, imho that is not a good sign. It’s always puzzled me why they always quote “wholesale” sales rather than retail or customer. Maybe I’m naive but I would suggest that if a customer doesn’t take delivery of a car then how can it be classed as a sale? LS stated that cars are now built to order, but the analysis from SSO would beg to differ. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts over the next few weeks after digesting this.Best Regards
Minglar
12TS said:
An excellent read, thank you SSO.Thank you for you detailed analysis SSO.
When I first read the FY results, I too was immediately surprised by the ‘shiny’ Q4 figures. They even highlighted a Q4 pre-tax profit, alongside the full year pre-tax loss £495 million !
One small point. You mention the Vanquish has disappeared from the innovation section of the 2022 results presentation.
I think it is still shown, although not easy to see the tiny print.
As you rightly say, if AML want to be associated with mid-engine cars (although where the motors will be in the electric Vanquish, who knows) they do need a regular core model.
The recent share price move.
Share buyers are now paying one and a half times more for their AML shares, than they did 5 months ago. AML continues (and has even increased) their cash habit, ‘spend more than earn’. Could the share buyers enthusiasm perhaps be based upon, ‘the price went up last week, so it will go up next week’? Are the share buyers perhaps encouraged by ‘jam tomorrow’ statements from the Chairman? “With the heavy lifting behind us, we are now poised to see the results of this transformation, starting in 2023.”
Perhaps they need to keep in mind a previous LS statement;
“Let me be crystal-clear, black-and-white: we do not need money.”
Only 4 months later, they did want money, £653 million of it !
What is going to happen to share prices we never know, but it will be interesting to find out in a year or so, whether this is a mini-bubble, or not.
...................
Minglar- ref wholesales / retails.
Retail figures are indeed helpful and of interest to us, but of course you know, AML's own customer is the person/ business who pays the AML invoice.
When Glaxo sell medicine to retailers, they don't issue additional figures when each pill is bought/swallowed.
The pharmacist might be overstocked, but that then results in a smaller reorder next time.
The motor trade might differ though. I wonder if they 'push' their dealers to buy extra stock.
I don't think it happens now, but do you remember Richard, when some big car manufacturers used to send new cars to the Channel Islands?
They were theoretically for the holiday rental fleet and I think the location was due to no VAT.
The cars then reappeared at UK auction sites, for sale as used cars with 10 miles on the clock.
There must be many different ways of artificially boosting the sales and revenue numbers.
Edited by Jon39 on Sunday 5th March 08:59
Jon39 said:
Thank you for you detailed analysis SSO.
When I first read the FY results, I too was immediately surprised by the ‘shiny’ Q4 figures. They even reported a pre-tax profit !
One small point. You mention the Vanquish has disappeared from the innovation section of the 2022 results presentation.
I think it is still shown, although not easy to see the tiny print.
As you rightly say, if AML want to be associated with mid-engine cars (although where the motors will be in the electric Vanquish, who knows) they do need a regular core model.
The recent share price move.
Share buyers are now paying one and a half times more for their AML shares, than they did 5 months ago. AML continues (and has even increased) their cash habit, ‘spend more than earn’. Could the share buyers enthusiasm perhaps be based upon, ‘the price went up last week, so it will go up next week’? Are the share buyers perhaps encouraged by ‘jam tomorrow’ statements from the Chairman? “With the heavy lifting behind us, we are now poised to see the results of this transformation, starting in 2023.”
Perhaps they need to keep in mind a previous LS statement;
“Let me be crystal-clear, black-and-white: we do not need money.”
Only 4 months later, they did want money, £653 million of it !
What is going to happen to share prices we never know, but it will be interesting to find out in a year or so, whether this is a mini-bubble, or not.
...................
Minglar- ref wholesales / retails.
Retail figures are indeed helpful and of interest to us, but of course you know, AML's own customer is the person/ business who pays the AML invoice.
When Glaxo sell medicine to retailers, they don't issue additional figures when each pill is bought/swallowed.
The pharmacist might be overstocked, but that then results in a smaller reorder next time.
The motor trade might differ though. I wonder if they 'push' their dealers to buy extra stock.
I don't think it happens now, but do you remember Richard, when some big car manufacturers used to send new cars to the Channel Islands? They were theoretically for the holiday rental fleet and I think the location was due to no VAT.
The cars then reappeared at UK auction sites, for sale as used cars with 10 miles on the clock.
There must be many different ways of artificially boosting the sales and revenue numbers.
Best Regards
Minglar
I am obviously not in a position to know, but if I was a betting man, I would pick your following option.
Minglar said:
... Or is the factory just building them and offloading them to the dealers ...
Car manufacturers have a very strong negotiating hand with their dealers.
Probably not quite so much as they used to, because some dealers are now big public company groups.
There were many high value Valkyrie and V12V sales going through in Q4, so it might not be 'channel stuffiing'.
As you point out, USA dealers appear to sell from stock, presumably because many customers prefer prompt delivery, so
over-stocking, or a large number of brand new cars being advertised, might not be easy to analyse.
Edited by Jon39 on Sunday 5th March 09:37
Jon39 said:
Thank you for you detailed analysis SSO.
When I first read the FY results, I too was immediately surprised by the ‘shiny’ Q4 figures. They even highlighted a Q4 pre-tax profit, alongside the full year pre-tax loss £495 million !
One small point. You mention the Vanquish has disappeared from the innovation section of the 2022 results presentation.
I think it is still shown, although not easy to see the tiny print.
As you rightly say, if AML want to be associated with mid-engine cars (although where the motors will be in the electric Vanquish, who knows) they do need a regular core model.
When British Aerospace owned Rover, the Exec population all had a new car every 4-6 months, type according to grade, then sold into the market as demonstrators. Execs and lower grades could also lease cars at advantageous rates and most grades had access to a 25% discount purchase scheme for self or family, with a very broad definition of family. Got to keep the lines moving. Non-recurring restart costs are eye-watering
Minglar said:
That’s a very fair point Jon. Of course you’re right, but what puzzles me is are the dealers ordering the cars from the factory because they have customers lined up, or because they think they can easily sell them? Or is the factory just building them and offloading them to the dealers as was the case in previous years prior to the LS era? It’s been discussed on here at depth before, and as you and I know, U.K. MDs do not publicly advertise stock cars for sale. It’s different in the US and elsewhere, so perhaps the sitting stock is more visible in those regions. I guess I’m just saying that I find it frustrating if AML is reverting back to this type of behaviour, as it is potentially misleading, and we all know what happened last time. Maybe a fire sale on the older models before the new revamps are introduced? I guess time will tell.
Best Regards
Minglar
While it doesn't exactly qualifies as proof of loading in the US, what I can confirm is I got multiple invites to come test drive DBXs in February. In the same period I received zero invites from Bentley on the Bentayga or Lamborghini for the Urus.Best Regards
Minglar
SSO said:
Sorry, my bad. That chart is actually from the 2020 FY Results Presentation. Intention was to include it to show that the Vanquish used to be part of the core plan. The chart is now clearly marked as being from that 2020 deck. Apologies for the confusion. I thought I had labeled it. There is no mention of the Vanquish in the 2022 deck.
Thank you SSO.
I understand the position now.
It is odd though, if it does turn out that the Vanquish core model project has been abandoned.
A mid-engine (look-alike electric) car manufacturer, only producing occasional special models, associated with a slightly dodgy Valkyrie reliability reputation.
"Sorry Sir, the showroom door is over there. No core models in your price range.
We don't have any mid-engine looking cars, at a price you could afford." -
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