AML - Stock Market Listing
Discussion
Jon39 said:
SSO said:
There also a rather large payables number (roughly GBP 700 mil-800 mil) plus another several hundred million in customer deposits to add to the pile.
They have been raising capital almost in an annual basis, seemingly without difficulty.
Do you forsee that being able to continue, or will shareholders and bond buyers eventually say, no thank you?
Wonder if the 2023 results can be 'sweetened' slightly, to help lubricate another capital raise offer, on results announcement day?
I can remember the good news of the refreshed Mercedes technical agreement being announced, immediately prior to a capital raise.
Another 1 for 20 would be a fun game to play. A great way to 'increase' the share price.
In terms of the next round, my guess is it will have a lot to do with how much YEW Tree/Stroll is forced to put up, how much control he has to give up, and how Geely plays its cards.
SSO said:
I think the last couple of raises have been with some difficulty, PIF got a major discount to buy in and was able to "persuade" AML to walk from MB on the EV and do a deal with Lucid (and pay for the honor). ...
Thanks.
'some difficulty' makes sense to me. To continually raise capital, effectively to cover ongoing business costs, could be called sticking plaster investment. Logic suggests more difficulty next time, following the huge percentage increase in undelying interest rates, since the last loan notes were negotiated.
I suppose PIF hardly need to think of money as money. Presumably they could if they wished, buy AML and not even notice their bank balance alter.
Their majority ownership investment of Lucid seems strange. My understanding is that more Air cars are built than are sold, so many are presumably just stored somewhere. The sales numbers are tiny. It has been reported that their new Middle East production factory does not and is unlikely to have, a local source for components, so car kits are sent from America for assembly.
Fund raising usually comes with a prospectus, which makes certain commitments and forecasts on what will be done with the money and what the results are expected to be.
When the same management team repeatedly asks for more money, each time with a nice set of promises and assumptions why do those providing the money not ask what is it that has changed which this time means that the outcomes predicted will be realised?
Unlike investments in general, past performance of management teams is a pretty good guide to future performance.
However don’t misunderstand me, I hope they get lots more money and continue to churn out lovely cars. It’s unlikely that someone with a few $Billion to spare is reading this thread anyhow.
When the same management team repeatedly asks for more money, each time with a nice set of promises and assumptions why do those providing the money not ask what is it that has changed which this time means that the outcomes predicted will be realised?
Unlike investments in general, past performance of management teams is a pretty good guide to future performance.
However don’t misunderstand me, I hope they get lots more money and continue to churn out lovely cars. It’s unlikely that someone with a few $Billion to spare is reading this thread anyhow.
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/aston-...
Finally some information on what direction AM is taking for their hybrids; The obvious direction with Mercedes tech, so no Lucid or Geely tech for the Hybrids.
Finally some information on what direction AM is taking for their hybrids; The obvious direction with Mercedes tech, so no Lucid or Geely tech for the Hybrids.
Ghini said:
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/aston-...
Finally some information on what direction AM is taking for their hybrids; The obvious direction with Mercedes tech, so no Lucid or Geely tech for the Hybrids.
Finally some information on what direction AM is taking for their hybrids; The obvious direction with Mercedes tech, so no Lucid or Geely tech for the Hybrids.
That article date is 26 July 2023.
Lucid cars are battery only. I don't know whether Geely build any PHEVs.
PHEV batteries take up a considerable amount of space, obviously less than an EV.
One Mercedes model, which is available in both IC and PHEV forms, loses one third of its boot space, for the provision of PHEV batteries under the boot floor.
Sports and GT cars do not have much spare space to start with, so it will be interesting to see how PHEV technology is engineered into existing models.
Thank you for your detailed reply, LT
LooneyTunes said:
... For proper sized facilities someone looking at it with a view to providing a facility would typically get much greater level of insight/access than simply looking at the published accounts. Depending on the type of facility being considered you might actually want to get under the skin of the business model to quite a significant degree. For example, factors such as the reality behind statements around order book (inc. geography/currency), ownership structure, investor support and existing obligations would be areas to concentrate on plus perhaps some more specific details if the type of facility necessitated it.
Prospect of recovery in the event of default should feature too, so there's a fair amount of work often to be done when looking at collateralisation. One of the big challenges in the automotive industry, especially in the UK, is that the history isn't great and there's not really enough collateral for all who might want it. That has sometimes resulted in firms looking for alternative ways to raise money leveraging the assets they have. That can add further complications to traditional debt issuance. ...
That is an interesting aspect.
Over the years, this topic must have revealed a few helpful tips.
Expect you remember pre IPO, when to boost excitement, a record number of new model announcements took place and a great deal of other hype became obvious to the posters here, even including one isolated year of declared pre-tax profit (coincidence?). That was subsequently almost totally reversed, when the sale of intellectual property and tooling, became a bad debt.
Repeated statements of growth, profitability and intending to use the capital raised to increase profitability (which they measure by EBITDA !). Have tansformed not just the Company, but even the industry. Sunshine just over the hirizon. The best one of course was, "Let me be crystal-clear, black-and-white: we do not need money." I think it was £575 million that was raised just months later (and then spent). Capital raising requires preparation time, so people must have known what is planned.
I think the loan notes are secured against property, therefore reducing the lenders risk.
I was puzzled, that the first time for AML, the various loan note debts had identical maturity dates. If there happened to be a coinciding economic crisis, or loss of confidence, the risk would be game over.
Aston Martin's battery electric vehicle partner is Lucid. It is therefore interesting to follow the (stuttering) progress of Lucid.
Their results for 2023 have been announced.
'On a full-year basis, the Company produced 8,428 vehicles, meeting the higher end of the 2023 annual production guidance of 8,000 to 8,500 vehicles, and delivered 6,001 vehicles in 2023.
Lucid today also announced its 2024 annual production guidance of approximately 9,000 vehicles, and will continue to prudently manage and adjust production to meet sales and delivery needs.'
I am assuming produced means built, whereas delivered means sold.
Therefore, they seem pleased that building 8,428 cars met their target,
but selling 6,001 cars, no comment about that.
So what about the remaining 2,427 cars. Have they just been dumped in the factory car park ?
Revenue
2022 $608.2 million
2023 $595.3 million
Pre-tax Loss
2022 $1,304.1 million
2023 $2,827.4 million
Staggering.
CEO's explanation.
"Lucid is investing for the long term in technology, manufacturing and partnerships to further solidify our place in the market as the premier luxury EV brand in the world," said Peter Rawlinson, Lucid's CEO and CTO. "In 2023, we made our first strategic technology arrangement, gained market share, completed the Air lineup, and unveiled Gravity. As we start 2024, I'm very excited about the year ahead and beyond. We are entering the next transformational phase of the Lucid vehicle lineup and are laser-focused on growth."
"I'd like to echo Peter's excitement as we start the year," said Gagan Dhingra, Lucid's Interim Chief Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer. "We outpaced our total addressable market and made headway with our cost optimization programs – a key strategic priority for the Company. I'm excited about the future as Gravity start of production is scheduled for late 2024 and the start of production for our high-volume Midsize platform is scheduled for late 2026."
(I very nearly mention losing all that money, but I think I got away with it.) -
One might ask, how long can this firm keep going like this, but no need, because there is an exteremly wealthy majority owner.
What do you make of it ?
Jon39 said:
Aston Martin's battery electric vehicle partner is Lucid. It is therefore interesting to follow the (stuttering) progress of Lucid.
Their results for 2023 have been announced.
'On a full-year basis, the Company produced 8,428 vehicles, meeting the higher end of the 2023 annual production guidance of 8,000 to 8,500 vehicles, and delivered 6,001 vehicles in 2023.
Lucid today also announced its 2024 annual production guidance of approximately 9,000 vehicles, and will continue to prudently manage and adjust production to meet sales and delivery needs.'
SSO said:
Jon39 said:
Aston Martin's battery electric vehicle partner is Lucid. It is therefore interesting to follow the (stuttering) progress of Lucid.
Their results for 2023 have been announced.
'On a full-year basis, the Company produced 8,428 vehicles, meeting the higher end of the 2023 annual production guidance of 8,000 to 8,500 vehicles, and delivered 6,001 vehicles in 2023.
Lucid today also announced its 2024 annual production guidance of approximately 9,000 vehicles, and will continue to prudently manage and adjust production to meet sales and delivery needs.'
If my understanding from their statement is correct, they are unable to sell all the cars they are making.
Therefore on that basis, they could meet any production target guidance.
It they had say set guidance at 20,000, it would have just meant dumping 13,999 cars in the factory car park, rather than the 2,499 that are already there.
I might be misunderstanding their meaning of 'produced' and 'delivered', but surely target guidance should be on cars sold (wholesale), not just any number that they choose to build.
Anyway, overall it all looks pretty hopeless. Huge and increasing losses and with a nation population in the region of 300 million, who only wanted 6,001 of their cars. Warren Buffett would probably be coughing into his See's candy, if asked whether Lucid might be a good investment.
However, there does seem to be quite a close race, between Lucid and AML for total wholesale numbers.
Jon39 said:
SSO said:
Jon39 said:
Aston Martin's battery electric vehicle partner is Lucid. It is therefore interesting to follow the (stuttering) progress of Lucid.
Their results for 2023 have been announced.
'On a full-year basis, the Company produced 8,428 vehicles, meeting the higher end of the 2023 annual production guidance of 8,000 to 8,500 vehicles, and delivered 6,001 vehicles in 2023.
Lucid today also announced its 2024 annual production guidance of approximately 9,000 vehicles, and will continue to prudently manage and adjust production to meet sales and delivery needs.'
If my understanding from their statement is correct, they are unable to sell all the cars they are making.
Therefore on that basis, they could meet any production target guidance.
It they had say set guidance at 20,000, it would have just meant dumping 13,999 cars in the factory car park, rather than the 2,499 that are already there.
I might be misunderstanding their meaning of 'produced' and 'delivered', but surely target guidance should be on cars sold (wholesale), not just any number that they choose to build.
Anyway, overall it all looks pretty hopeless. Huge and increasing losses and with a nation population in the region of 300 million, who only wanted 6,001 of their cars. Warren Buffett would probably be coughing into his See's candy, if asked whether Lucid might be a good investment.
However, there does seem to be quite a close race, between Lucid and AML for total wholesale numbers.
Of all the car companies I have looked at, the guidance Lucid provides is the least useful.
An occasional look (don't waste your time) at the AML share chat forums, suggests that when a new model is annoucemed, it will be followed by Company profitability and a much higher share price.
Well, what has actually happened ?
2003 & 2005 .......... DB9 and Vantage introduced.
................................. The order book really was full at that time and record sales were achieved.
................................. Modest pre-tax profits were reported, but partly illusionary, because Ford were paying development costs.
2016 & 2018 ........... DB11 and Vantage introduced.
................................. Financial losses continued.
2023 & 2024 ........... DB12 and Vantage introduced.
................................. The chat forum consensus, is that it will be different this time.
................................. I would suggest, that they don't even know what has happened before.
................................. Several posters think the share price will soon increase, simply because it has fallen so far.
................................. Uncommon sense seems to be widespread. They are thinking about the share price and not the business.
Edited by Jon39 on Tuesday 27th February 08:48
If you would like to feel part of the results announcement tomorrow morning, you just need to register.
Title: Aston Martin Lagonda 2023 Full Year Results
Date: Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Time: 8:00 AM (GMT+00:00) United Kingdom Time
Duration: 60 minutes
https://www.astonmartinlagonda.com/investors/resul...
Click on, 'REGISTER TO WATCH HERE'.
It can be quite informative and entertaining.
'Politician's Answers' during the Q & A, have been noted before.
I really hope that AML has copyrighted the phrase “ultra-luxury” 
I gave up counting how many times I read it in the report. I guess on the surface the numbers are looking a little better but the business is still losing money, cash at hand has declined, and the debt figure remains stubbornly high. It looks like the UK and the US are becoming less relevant as core market areas too. No real surprise there. I don’t think there is enough in today’s release to move the SP too far in either direction. It’s interesting that Laffery has tempered speculation of another cash raise though. Have we been here before? 
We shall see. BRM.
I gave up counting how many times I read it in the report. I guess on the surface the numbers are looking a little better but the business is still losing money, cash at hand has declined, and the debt figure remains stubbornly high. It looks like the UK and the US are becoming less relevant as core market areas too. No real surprise there. I don’t think there is enough in today’s release to move the SP too far in either direction. It’s interesting that Laffery has tempered speculation of another cash raise though. Have we been here before? We shall see. BRM. Gassing Station | Aston Martin | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff