AML - Stock Market Listing
Discussion
^^^^ this looks lovely. Mazda "RX Vision Concept" apparently.
Also, the successor to the old RX8, possibly called the RX9 below;
Price is interesting - around £60,500
I still think AM are missing a trick. There must be a market for sports cars in this price bracket.
Just look at the A110 Alpine at circa £50k, what's not to like?
I've probably said it before, I'm waiting for a new AM to materialise that
1: I like and
2: I can afford.
I'll give it a few more years before I change brand, but the "competition" really do have some lovely cars at good prices.
The wife barely let me get away with buying an old 2009 V8 Vantage, and the thought of spending over £100k on a toy.... I'd be force-fed my own testic.........
Also, the successor to the old RX8, possibly called the RX9 below;
Price is interesting - around £60,500
I still think AM are missing a trick. There must be a market for sports cars in this price bracket.
Just look at the A110 Alpine at circa £50k, what's not to like?
I've probably said it before, I'm waiting for a new AM to materialise that
1: I like and
2: I can afford.
I'll give it a few more years before I change brand, but the "competition" really do have some lovely cars at good prices.
The wife barely let me get away with buying an old 2009 V8 Vantage, and the thought of spending over £100k on a toy.... I'd be force-fed my own testic.........
KevinBird said:
Interesting comparison with data between Ferrari and Porsche...thanks
rovcallum said:
^^^^ this looks lovely. Mazda "RX Vision Concept" apparently.
Also, the successor to the old RX8, possibly called the RX9 below;
Price is interesting - around £60,500
I still think AM are missing a trick. There must be a market for sports cars in this price bracket.
Just look at the A110 Alpine at circa £50k, what's not to like?
I've probably said it before, I'm waiting for a new AM to materialise that
1: I like and
2: I can afford.
I'll give it a few more years before I change brand, but the "competition" really do have some lovely cars at good prices.
The wife barely let me get away with buying an old 2009 V8 Vantage, and the thought of spending over £100k on a toy.... I'd be force-fed my own testic.........
I just don’t think Aston Martin can compete in that segment. Full capacity at Gaydon is what 6.5-7k cars?. If they were selling them at £50k rather than £150k they would never cover the overheads etc Also, the successor to the old RX8, possibly called the RX9 below;
Price is interesting - around £60,500
I still think AM are missing a trick. There must be a market for sports cars in this price bracket.
Just look at the A110 Alpine at circa £50k, what's not to like?
I've probably said it before, I'm waiting for a new AM to materialise that
1: I like and
2: I can afford.
I'll give it a few more years before I change brand, but the "competition" really do have some lovely cars at good prices.
The wife barely let me get away with buying an old 2009 V8 Vantage, and the thought of spending over £100k on a toy.... I'd be force-fed my own testic.........
mrobin33 said:
You’re always very touchy on this topic. You weren’t involved in the IPO by any chance?
Nope.But as many here know I do work in the City (but my speciality is banks not automotive). The reason I’m touchy is that with the stock market a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous (and potentially expensive) thing. I don’t like to see people passing themselves off as experts when a little scratching below the surface will tell you they’re not.
It’s a bit like a professional electrician would no doubt be critical of an amateur giving advice on a forum about how to wire a house up. Or Mike from Bamford Rose no doubt gets upset when he sees people giving engine advice on here. I could get upset when I see people making misleading statements on stock market investments
By the way I would be much more impressed with a Motley Fool article If the author was explaining that he thinks the market has got something wrong (not necessarily AML) - with some analysis as to why - for example valuation too low as it’s discounting something the author doesn’t think will happen with reasons?
Simply saying the stock is down (it actually finished up on the day but that’s a side issue) and here’s why AML isn’t as good as Ferrari is rubbish. That’s newspaper journalism not analysis. If a junior analyst wrote that I would tell them to start again - we all know Ferrari is a syringe brand than AML - the market knows that - investors know that - the valuation already reflects it. The key to stock market is investing is normally to work out the future not look backwards over what is apparent to all.
If I had a £1 for every time a journalist called me to say “why is X up when they reported a loss this morning?” I’d buy an Aston Martin. The answer is because the market had already discounted the loss. AML figures weren’t great for Q3, but investors had already anticipated that.
So the author says “I’m going to wait to see if DBX is a success before I buy the shares” (or words to that effect). Lol. Well I’ve got bad news for him. If DBX does well, by the time he finds that out and is a position to trade on it - the stock is already going to have moved to reflect it. Now if the author were smart he would have gone to a DBX preview or perhaps talked to people who had and perhaps formed his own opinion beforehand. But I’m sure he will be perfect in hindsight again
Simply saying the stock is down (it actually finished up on the day but that’s a side issue) and here’s why AML isn’t as good as Ferrari is rubbish. That’s newspaper journalism not analysis. If a junior analyst wrote that I would tell them to start again - we all know Ferrari is a syringe brand than AML - the market knows that - investors know that - the valuation already reflects it. The key to stock market is investing is normally to work out the future not look backwards over what is apparent to all.
If I had a £1 for every time a journalist called me to say “why is X up when they reported a loss this morning?” I’d buy an Aston Martin. The answer is because the market had already discounted the loss. AML figures weren’t great for Q3, but investors had already anticipated that.
So the author says “I’m going to wait to see if DBX is a success before I buy the shares” (or words to that effect). Lol. Well I’ve got bad news for him. If DBX does well, by the time he finds that out and is a position to trade on it - the stock is already going to have moved to reflect it. Now if the author were smart he would have gone to a DBX preview or perhaps talked to people who had and perhaps formed his own opinion beforehand. But I’m sure he will be perfect in hindsight again
Rob, I don’t want to sound pedantic, but I’m sure I remember you said before the IPO that your institution was involved? Perhaps not you directly, but perhaps your employer? Anyway, that’s all history now. It’s fairly clear that the next move in the share price will be on the back of how well the DBX is received on 20th November, and more importantly, how many orders get placed. Without going over old ground, we all know the IPO listing price was set too high. There has been plenty of conjecture on here as to the reasons why. I didn’t get involved at launch. In fact, despite being on the AM mailing list, I didn’t get the email which offered participation. I have bought below 500p though, and I have a printed certificate ready to be copied, framed, and hung up in my garage. If it all goes t*ts up, then at least I’ll have a bit of printed history to pass down. You never know, it might be worth something on the Antiques Roadshow in 100 years from now. Without being condescending, it’s pretty simple really. If you believe in the strategy and the future of the company, bet what you are happy and able to lose. If not, don’t get involved. I tend to think the squeeze higher at the tail end of last week was on the back of the highs made in the US. Friday squeeze, coat tails, call it what you will. As I said last week, let’s hope in a few years from now, we will see that these levels were golden buying opportunities. DBX is make or break. Fingers crossed they have enough time for it to happen.
Best Regards
Minglar
Best Regards
Minglar
Edited by Minglar on Saturday 9th November 15:12
Minglar said:
Rob, I don’t want to sound pedantic, but I’m sure I remember you said before the IPO that your institution was involved? Perhaps not you directly, but perhaps your employer? Anyway, that’s all history now. It’s fairly clear that the next move in the share price will be on the back of how well the DBX is received on 20th November, and more importantly, how many orders get placed. Without going over old ground, we all know the IPO listing price was set too high. There has been plenty of conjecture on here as to the reasons why. I didn’t get involved at launch. In fact, despite being on the AM mailing list, I didn’t get the email which offered participation. I have bought below 500p though, and I have a printed certificate ready to be copied, framed, and hung up in my garage. If it all goes t*ts up, then at least I’ll have a bit of printed history to pass down. You never know, it might be worth something on the Antiques Roadshow in 100 years from now. Without being condescending, it’s pretty simple really. If you believe in the strategy and the future of the company, bet what you are happy and able to lose. If not, don’t get involved. I tend to think the squeeze higher at the tail end of last week was on the back of the highs made in the US. Friday squeeze, coat tails, call it what you will. As I said last week, let’s hope in a few years from now, we will see that these levels were golden buying opportunities. DBX is make or break. Fingers crossed they have enough time for it to happen.
Best Regards
Minglar
You’re quite correct. Firm had a small role but I’m clear of it and have no financial interest etc. So other than being an Aston Martin fan the share price is irrelevant to me.Best Regards
Minglar
Edited by Minglar on Saturday 9th November 15:12
And I totally agree with your second point, as I think we’ve all said on here before DBX has been and remains the key to success or otherwise of AML. Until we know the outcome of that everything else feels more like “noise”. Im actually surprised that the owners decided to sell before the launch.
A “good” Brexit outcome would also help (by which I mean either No Brexit or a Deal that allows car parts to flow freely)
But putting all that to one side, my point would be this; people on this forum know a lot more about AML than the average journalist. Spend a little time on the Investor Relations part of Aston Martins website, and see what the company are saying, what the numbers are pointing to. That’s a better starting position to decide on whether to buy the stock (or indeed the same process for any other stock) than a Motley Fool article
RobDown said:
I don’t like to see people passing themselves off as experts, when a little scratching below the surface will tell you they’re not.
I might be on your list, Rob.
You did tell me at the time of the £19 IPO, something to the effect that I had misunderstood fundamental valuation principles. No worries though.
I would recommend everyone to learn about stock market investment. Done sensibly, with study, experience and patience, the rewards can allow you to say goodbye to your employer. Hold on a moment. Everyone is not the right word, because I am relying upon a total of 2,400,000 employees, in businesses around the world. Don't want them to leave.
Jon39 said:
I might be on your list, Rob.
You did tell me at the time of the £19 IPO, something to the effect that I had misunderstood fundamental valuation principles. No worries though.
I would recommend everyone to learn about stock market investment. Done sensibly, with study, experience and patience, the rewards can allow you to say goodbye to your employer. Hold on a moment. Everyone is not the right word, because I am relying upon a total of 2,400,000 employees, in businesses around the world. Don't want them to leave.
I know we don’t agree on everything. It would be boring if we did. But you’ve clearly put some work in and done your own research. So
I think from memory my issue with your valuation was that you were using a headline P/E number and trying for peer comparisons. Which isn’t going to work in this case for a number of reasons (1) the ‘E’ is distorted by exceptionals (2) the current P&L isn’t a reflection of what the P&L will look like 3 years down the line because of DBX and (3) capitalisation of development spend (which I think you’ve mentioned before too).
Frankly valuing this thing needs a multi year model to be built (and look how well that turned out for the real automotive specialists!).
P/Es are fine but I would stick to using them with more mature (stable?) businesses. AML certainly doesn’t fall into that category (will it ever?)
RobDown said:
A “good” Brexit outcome would also help (by which I mean either No Brexit or a Deal that allows car parts to flow freely)
Spend a little time on the Investor Relations part of Aston Martins website, and see what the company are saying, what the numbers are pointing to. That’s a better starting position to decide on whether to buy the stock (or indeed the same process for any other stock) than a Motley Fool article
Spend a little time on the Investor Relations part of Aston Martins website, and see what the company are saying, what the numbers are pointing to. That’s a better starting position to decide on whether to buy the stock (or indeed the same process for any other stock) than a Motley Fool article
A wet day and we start looking at the forum.
I take no sides with Brexit (shouldn't that be UKexit, because UK is the member, not Great Britain) and was unable to participate in the referendum. However, the outcome for AML might be even more complicated than parts flow. AML want their big markets to become China and USA, both outside the EU. With far more EU cars going to USA than the other way, that might lead to increased tariffs being applied to the value of whole cars, not just some parts before assembly. Does the EU have a free trade deal with USA ?
RobDown said:
Jon
I know we don’t agree on everything. It would be boring if we did. But you’ve clearly put some work in and done your own research. So
I think from memory my issue with your valuation was that you were using a headline P/E number and trying for peer comparisons. Which isn’t going to work in this case for a number of reasons (1) the ‘E’ is distorted by exceptionals (2) the current P&L isn’t a reflection of what the P&L will look like 3 years down the line because of DBX and (3) capitalisation of development spend (which I think you’ve mentioned before too).
Frankly valuing this thing needs a multi year model to be built (and look how well that turned out for the real automotive specialists!).
P/Es are fine but I would stick to using them with more mature (stable?) businesses. AML certainly doesn’t fall into that category (will it ever?)
I know we don’t agree on everything. It would be boring if we did. But you’ve clearly put some work in and done your own research. So
I think from memory my issue with your valuation was that you were using a headline P/E number and trying for peer comparisons. Which isn’t going to work in this case for a number of reasons (1) the ‘E’ is distorted by exceptionals (2) the current P&L isn’t a reflection of what the P&L will look like 3 years down the line because of DBX and (3) capitalisation of development spend (which I think you’ve mentioned before too).
Frankly valuing this thing needs a multi year model to be built (and look how well that turned out for the real automotive specialists!).
P/Es are fine but I would stick to using them with more mature (stable?) businesses. AML certainly doesn’t fall into that category (will it ever?)
Yes, agree with all the points you make.
Automobile manufacture has never been a sector which has attracted me, although there was once an exception, when I made a worthwhile profit with Jaguar, while it was briefly a plc.
I did consider AMLGH at IPO and so applied my normal variety of valuation parameters, which go much further than historic P/E and even includes 'gut feeling'. Private equity selling is also one of my factors. Anyway my decision was no.
My 13% up year to date figure yesterday, would of course have been lower had my decision been yes. Interesting sometimes how saying no can make money. It is similar in a way to being 'out of the market'.
RobDown said:
Nope.
But as many here know I do work in the City (but my speciality is banks not automotive). The reason I’m touchy is that with the stock market a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous (and potentially expensive) thing. I don’t like to see people passing themselves off as experts when a little scratching below the surface will tell you they’re not.
It’s a bit like a professional electrician would no doubt be critical of an amateur giving advice on a forum about how to wire a house up. Or Mike from Bamford Rose no doubt gets upset when he sees people giving engine advice on here. I could get upset when I see people making misleading statements on stock market investments
Absolutely agree with you Rob, spot on advice, amateurs wheeling and dealing on the stock market But as many here know I do work in the City (but my speciality is banks not automotive). The reason I’m touchy is that with the stock market a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous (and potentially expensive) thing. I don’t like to see people passing themselves off as experts when a little scratching below the surface will tell you they’re not.
It’s a bit like a professional electrician would no doubt be critical of an amateur giving advice on a forum about how to wire a house up. Or Mike from Bamford Rose no doubt gets upset when he sees people giving engine advice on here. I could get upset when I see people making misleading statements on stock market investments
can certainly lead to misfortune and as you say a little knowledge is a dangerous ( and potentially expensive ) thing.
I prefer to follow the advice of an expert in the field,such as Neil Russel Woodford CBE,and use his extensive knowledge of the markets to lose my money for me,
RobDown said:
I love Motley Fool. Some bloke in an armchair throwing out a couple of numbers and pretending it’s analysis. And always perfect with hindsight.
Bet he’s scratching his head now wondering why the stock has risen sharply since he wrote that
The stock has risen over 10% since he wrote that. But how much has it declined since float ?Bet he’s scratching his head now wondering why the stock has risen sharply since he wrote that
You are being very disingenuous.
RobDown said:
Nope.
But as many here know I do work in the City (but my speciality is banks not automotive). The reason I’m touchy is that with the stock market a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous (and potentially expensive) thing. I don’t like to see people passing themselves off as experts when a little scratching below the surface will tell you they’re not.
It’s a bit like a professional electrician would no doubt be critical of an amateur giving advice on a forum about how to wire a house up. Or Mike from Bamford Rose no doubt gets upset when he sees people giving engine advice on here. I could get upset when I see people making misleading statements on stock market investments
I used to work in the city as a trader. For 30 years. Not in shares but commodities. If that disqualifies for commenting so be it but I will say my piece anyway. But as many here know I do work in the City (but my speciality is banks not automotive). The reason I’m touchy is that with the stock market a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous (and potentially expensive) thing. I don’t like to see people passing themselves off as experts when a little scratching below the surface will tell you they’re not.
It’s a bit like a professional electrician would no doubt be critical of an amateur giving advice on a forum about how to wire a house up. Or Mike from Bamford Rose no doubt gets upset when he sees people giving engine advice on here. I could get upset when I see people making misleading statements on stock market investments
Everything in the city is about value. Value is subjective. Many things make it up including valuation of assets; global economies; expectations; current fund over/under weight holdings ; technical analysis etc etc. Claiming that the rest of us should not engage in trying to second guess the correct valuation for an IPO float like AM is condescending. Whether you follow Randon Walk; Elliott Wave; or value investing no-one is bigger than the market and if they try to claim that their valuation is correct when it is clearly wrong they will have a short lived existence.
The valuation put on the AM float of £20 was b
ks. It was bks at the time and it is bks in hinsight. The current price of £4-5 may be correct. Time will tell. But your continued approach to claim that we poor fools do not understand how the market works is disingenuous Gassing Station | Aston Martin | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff