Can Aston Martin Survive in the Electric Vehicle Era?
Discussion
That's really interesting as some clever dick mentioned Sodium Ion it last year in this thread having seen it working in a Lab in Caerphilly with his work 
There is still quite a lot of pushback on EV's in some quarters but all I can say having had mine since Dec 2021 and put 10,000 miles on it it is an absolute cracker and a joy to drive. I defy ANY petrolhead not to enjoy driving it and also to say an ICE engine is technically a better form of vehicle propulsion - my adored Rapide feels so archaic in comparison I'm afraid...but does give me goosebumps...
The Lucid Air cracks 500 miles as it compromises a bit more towards efficiency on tyre size/grip/rolling resistance etc.
Its charging from my roof PV, 'free' at the moment. I love free, but otherwise it's about £22 for 250 miles. Gigantic Fan Boy and Aston have to get involved!
There is still quite a lot of pushback on EV's in some quarters but all I can say having had mine since Dec 2021 and put 10,000 miles on it it is an absolute cracker and a joy to drive. I defy ANY petrolhead not to enjoy driving it and also to say an ICE engine is technically a better form of vehicle propulsion - my adored Rapide feels so archaic in comparison I'm afraid...but does give me goosebumps...
The Lucid Air cracks 500 miles as it compromises a bit more towards efficiency on tyre size/grip/rolling resistance etc.Its charging from my roof PV, 'free' at the moment. I love free, but otherwise it's about £22 for 250 miles. Gigantic Fan Boy and Aston have to get involved!
IC sales ban extension
The EU are now going to allow low volume car makers, to continue selling IC engine cars for a further 5 years.
https://europe.autonews.com/environmentemissions/f...
Tesla sales slow
https://www.ft.com/content/fce717e1-b98c-4e93-b7eb...
I don't think this article mentions one possible contributory factor.
Tesla of course were first to offer an acceptable range of battery cars and for a number of years, the only 'buy in town'.
Now though, many competitors have caught up and there is a much greater choice of battery cars.
We see quite a number now on UK roads, at prices from expensive upwards, produced by many different manufacturers.
Presumably those rivals must be starting to have an effect on Tesla sales.
There is the first entry advantage, but we can remember numerous instances of not always becoming the eventual winner.
The Tesla company stock market valuation ( !!!! $700 billion !!!! ) indicates they will become the dominant player, as well as being hugely profitable.
We shall see in time.
(The most valuable UK listed companies are AstraZeneca and Shell ( around $180 billion).
Edited by Jon39 on Sunday 3rd July 12:06
Jon39 said:
IC sales ban extension
The EU are now going to allow low volume car makers, to continue selling IC engine cars for a further 5 years.
https://europe.autonews.com/environmentemissions/f...
Tesla sales slow
https://www.ft.com/content/fce717e1-b98c-4e93-b7eb...
I don't think this article mentions one possible contributory factor.
Tesla of course were first to offer an acceptable range of battery cars and for a number of years, the only 'buy in town'.
Now though, many competitors have caught up and there is a much greater choice of battery cars.
We see quite a number now on UK roads, at prices from expensive upwards, produced by many different manufacturers.
Presumably those rivals must be starting to have an effect on Tesla sales.
There is the first entry advantage, but we can remember numerous instances of not always becoming the eventual winner.
The Tesla company stock market valuation ( !!!! $700 billion !!!! ) indicates they will become the dominant player, as well as being hugely profitable.
We shall see in time.
(The most valuable UK listed companies are AstraZeneca and Shell ( around $180 billion).
Edited by Jon39 on Sunday 3rd July 12:06
Tesla deliveries fall due to China Covid shutdowns and supply shortages
I’d say those are contributing factors?
A supplier of tesla powerwalls I know in the uk has 600+ on back order. Last week he got a shipment through, of 3, it will be weeks before the next, he has given up giving estimated dates to new orders as its now years.
Tesla’s mission is to own the home energy storage market, cars were always looked at as the way to increase takeup on their tech to achieve the goal. They cant ship powerwalls to meet demand.
M1AGM said:
The ft article headline:
Tesla deliveries fall due to China Covid shutdowns and supply shortages
I’d say those are contributing factors?
A supplier of tesla powerwalls I know in the uk has 600+ on back order. Last week he got a shipment through, of 3, it will be weeks before the next, he has given up giving estimated dates to new orders as its now years.
Tesla’s mission is to own the home energy storage market, cars were always looked at as the way to increase takeup on their tech to achieve the goal. They cant ship powerwalls to meet demand.
Tesla deliveries fall due to China Covid shutdowns and supply shortages
I’d say those are contributing factors?
A supplier of tesla powerwalls I know in the uk has 600+ on back order. Last week he got a shipment through, of 3, it will be weeks before the next, he has given up giving estimated dates to new orders as its now years.
Tesla’s mission is to own the home energy storage market, cars were always looked at as the way to increase takeup on their tech to achieve the goal. They cant ship powerwalls to meet demand.
FT article, yes quite.
I was putting forward for discussion, an additional contributory factor, which might not have been mentione in the article.
Interesting that their main aim is home energy storage. I did not know that. Probably better profit margins there, than cyclical car manufacturing.
A pity that supply is difficult.
I was interested in the Teslas announcement several years ago, about roof solar, which looked exactly like conventional roof tiles.
Seems to have all gone very quiet though. A far more attractive way, than the present roof panels.
If they come up with a technology that doesn't involve lugging a huge weight in batteries around (which is like something out of the steam punk era) then the whole enterprise gets much more interesting.
Nevertheless, I don't see how a marque distinguishes itself from every other one out there, and range and convenience of charging are still a huge obstacle. Furthermore why would you pay a premium to invest in a technology which clearly isn't there yet, and for all we know, may never get there.
Nevertheless, I don't see how a marque distinguishes itself from every other one out there, and range and convenience of charging are still a huge obstacle. Furthermore why would you pay a premium to invest in a technology which clearly isn't there yet, and for all we know, may never get there.
Jon39 said:
Of course we never know whether, what we see on the internet is true or not.
I came across this chart.
What do you make of it ?
The areas where Lithium can be mined are few and demand (due to EV's) is outstripping supply.
As to the likes of Aston and EV's, it's not for me. My daily drive is a plug in hybrid, I only got it due to it being cheap on personal tax as a company car. It is without doubt the most boring, bland thing I have ever driven.
I was told the other day (not sure of the legitimacy of what I heard) that this whole net zero policy we are being told to chase by 2030 is utter madness. apparently, CO2 in the world amounts to 0.3% of which only 3% is 'man' made and of that 3% the UK somehow bizarrely contributes 1% which seems very high for such a small country. My source for this information was Lloyds (our business bank).
If true, WTF!?
Edited by BiggaJ on Thursday 7th July 10:59
BiggaJ said:
We need to see a move away from Lithium being used in batteries. Here's one for you, Lithium complex greases have been around for years. A few of my customers make them amongst other grease variants. Just 12 months ago they were buying Lithium at approx. £7000/metric tonne ... today they are paying £70,000/metric tonne. ....
That is interesting. I have given considerable thought to the whole of this subject, in anticipation of buying a new car next year. Of current interest is a replacement model due for launch next year, probably the last new petrol model offered by the manufacturer (it will have just a modest size 48 volt additional battery, used as infill for turbo lag).
You will tell from that, I have not yet been convinced by the electric car revolution. Hearing about an expensive hybrid car, being written off after only 8 years shocked me. The replacement battery cost, was too much for it to be worthwhile.
Your mention of the 10 times price increase, reminded me about comments made by many people, that electric cars will become cheaper, in the same way that computers and mobile phones did.
There is of course one major difference, which your example illustrates perfectly. The big EV car batteries contain expensive metals etc., which are priced and traded on world markets. Those daily variable prices will not necessarily fall, just because more electric cars are bring sold.
Therefore electric cars might continue to be expensive.
EDIT
BiggaJ said:
I was told the other day (not sure of the legitimacy of what I heard) that this whole net zero policy we are being told to chase by 2030 is utter madness. apparently, CO2 in the world amounts to 0.3% of which only 3% is 'man' made and of that 3% the UK somehow bizarrely contributes 1% which seems very high for such a small country.
Do humans breathe out CO2 ?
Does that come into the 'green' calculation ?
If we all stopped breathing, would that be of any help in saving the world for the next generstions ? -
Edited by Jon39 on Thursday 7th July 13:00
Jon39 said:
You will tell from that, I have not yet been convinced by the electric car revolution. Hearing about an expensive hybrid car, being written off after only 8 years shocked me. The replacement battery cost, was too much for it to be worthwhile.
MB refused to help even in part, as the battery warranty is 6 yrs or X many miles, I forget what X was, but he was marginally over both criteria.
So whilst there were some "working" salvaged batteries on ebay for £1500 everyone he spoke to refused to fit them saying they would likely fail shortly thereafter and they were not prepared to have their credentials saved onto a faulty repair as the coding procedure included their ID.
So he was left with a choice of either fully refurbished Panasonic battery at around £7,500 (with a short warranty) or a MB original Battery at £12,500 (with a full warranty).
He had paid £16k for the car just 4 months earlier, trade valuations of the car with a failed battery were dismal.
So either way a HUGE loss on any option available. In the end he went for the Panasonic refurb.
I think he has now also come round to the same mindset as me that EV's have more draw backs than advantages.
AdamV12V said:
This is sadly all very true. I can tell you first hand from experience that it happens. Just a couple of months ago my brothers 6.5 yr old Merc AMG E300 Hybrid refused to start one day. Upon investigation it seemed the small hybrid battery had totally failed. He had selected the vehicle at least partially because it was a hybrid and offered a lower cost of ownership. ....
I had previously applied logic and had therfore assumed, that when a hybrid battery fails, there is still a petrol or diesel engine under the bonnet, so just carry on driving IC only.
Oh no, if the hybrid battery is not up to scratch, then it seems the IC engine will not start.
Has that been engineered purposely, to sell more cars?
The case that I read about, was also an MB E-class hybrid. M-B of course want to sell new cars. In both instances the owners facing disaster, were not the original new car customers. Maybe that makes manufacturers even less interested in helping. Perhaps the new norm is for shorter life cars.
If this situation becomes widespread, which presumably it will, then buyers of second hand EVs and hybrids, will become very wary about buying those cars over 6 years old, when there is little, or no battery warranty remaining.
Jon39 said:
I had previously applied logic and had therfore assumed, that when a hybrid battery fails, there is still a petrol or diesel engine under the bonnet, so just carry on driving IC only.
Oh no, if the hybrid battery is not up to scratch, then it seems the IC engine will not start.
Has that been engineered purposely, to sell more cars?
He looked into every possible angle before bowing to the inevitable and buying the “new” battery. It was the lowest net loss solution available to him in the end.
It does indeed seem that cars are engineered for much shorter lives these days and none more so than EV’s!
Jon39 said:
I had previously applied logic and had therfore assumed, that when a hybrid battery fails, there is still a petrol or diesel engine under the bonnet, so just carry on driving IC only.
Oh no, if the hybrid battery is not up to scratch, then it seems the IC engine will not start.
Has that been engineered purposely, to sell more cars?
The case that I read about, was also an MB E-class hybrid. M-B of course want to sell new cars. In both instances the owners facing disaster, were not the original new car customers. Maybe that makes manufacturers even less interested in helping. Perhaps the new norm is for shorter life cars.
If this situation becomes widespread, which presumably it will, then buyers of second hand EVs and hybrids, will become very wary about buying those cars over 6 years old, when there is little, or no battery warranty remaining.
Like you Jon, I was under the impression all Hybrid's were built the same way aside from say Lexus which is self charging. I'm sure my car will run if the battery were to fail. I know it has a very small battery for starting the engine etc. so I believe if this hasn't malfunctioned then the car will run without the EV side of things. I may have have this wrong though.
AdamV12V said:
It does indeed seem that cars are engineered for much shorter lives these days and none more so than EV’s!
So sorry, this is probably my fault.
My 3.2 V6 Mercedes-Benz Coupe has provided perfectly reliable service for 23 years.
Looking good still and driving feels the same as when new.
It still goes for maintenance to the main dealer (dashboard request only comes up every two years, so that saves).
I think M-Bs newer cars have (probably not need, if mileage lowish) to be serviced every 12 months.
That might be my fault as well !
More frequent maintenance and shorter car lives.
Good for business, but what would the green protestors say ?
cardigankid said:
I was never an EV fan, the whole enterprise smells fishy. But if this thread has done one thing it has convinced me never to buy an EV. I don't understand what goes through peoples' heads.
Well, I am no 'fan' of EVs, but had technology evolved differently and lithium batteries etc been perfected in 1895, would anyone really have thought 'That's a bit crap, I'll design something that uses multiple cylinders and pistons, a box of complicated gears, needs constant petrol and oil and hundreds of chemical explosions a minute'?Simpo Two said:
Well, I am no 'fan' of EVs, but had technology evolved differently and lithium batteries etc been perfected in 1895, would anyone really have thought 'That's a bit crap, I'll design something that uses multiple cylinders and pistons, a box of complicated gears, needs constant petrol and oil and hundreds of chemical explosions a minute'?
I have never studied the history, but would be interested in more expert forum contributors opinions.
Does the following have any validity?
1. In the early 20th century, electric vehicles represented a considerable proportion of all vehicles.
2. They were quite expensive, but so were internal combustion engine vehicles at that time.
3. When Henry Ford perfected production line manufacturing, of internal combustion engine cars, economies of scale considerably reduced the selling price of IC cars.
4. Much cheaper IC cars, quickly reduced demand for EVs.
5. IC cars became the industry standard.
Interestingly we now have a very similar structure, with EVs being more expensive, than their equivalent IC versions.
Different from the 1900s though, is that the extra cost is now justified by buyers, because pollution is away from where the vehicle is.
Maybe people did not think about pollution in the early 1900s.
Does that make any sense ?
Simpo Two said:
Well, I am no 'fan' of EVs, but had technology evolved differently and lithium batteries etc been perfected in 1895, would anyone really have thought 'That's a bit crap, I'll design something that uses multiple cylinders and pistons, a box of complicated gears, needs constant petrol and oil and hundreds of chemical explosions a minute'?
If we had only invested in nuclear power in the 1800s, things would have worked out differently im sure Jon39 said:
I have never studied the history, but would be interested in more expert forum contributors opinions.
Does the following have any validity?
1. In the early 20th century, electric vehicles represented a considerable proportion of all vehicles.
2. They were quite expensive, but so were internal combustion engine vehicles at that time.
3. When Henry Ford perfected production line manufacturing, of internal combustion engine cars, economies of scale considerably reduced the selling price of IC cars.
4. Much cheaper IC cars, quickly reduced demand for EVs.
5. IC cars became the industry standard.
Interestingly we now have a very similar structure, with EVs being more expensive, than their equivalent IC versions.
Different from the 1900s though, is that the extra cost is now justified by buyers, because pollution is away from where the vehicle is.
Maybe people did not think about pollution in the early 1900s.
Does that make any sense ?
EV are in reality progressing because of tax breaks and because above all the current social agenda means one must not be seen to be a polluting oik. Thus one can have tat shipped all the way round the world from AsiaPac where it is made with no thought for the emissions created, because the last mile delivery is done with a green conscience in an Amazon Mercedes eSprinter. Governments only resort to bans when the thing they seek to invoke wouldn't sustainably last on its own two feet. IF (big IF) something is tangibly better it takes the market by storm and the inferior product dies out... see iPhone displacing Nokia, Fibre replacing ISDN/PSTN, Jet Engines replacing Pistons on aircraft etc etc etc. For cars the governments of the world have brought out the bans because the compromises to peoples lifestyles are simply too great for people to readily tolerate them without a significant amount of external influence.
For Sports cars the bit of the energy efficiency equation missed is the same one as affects aircraft, namely that the density of the energy storage (whether fuel or battery) affects the overall system efficiency... a heavy thing or a bulky thing are simply less agile than a light thing. 300 miles of fuel at 20mpg requires about 68l of fuel and about 80l of space for the tank, weighing about 70kg full. 300 miles of energy at 3 miles/kWH requires 100kWH of usable battery, or about 110kWH of actual battery weighing about 650kg and needing substantially more space (I can't find a quick reference for volumetric density). That extra 650kg needs bigger motors, bigger brakes etc to cope with the extra weight, plus extra clever damping to hide the weight... which is why an SUV EV weighs about 400kg more even after you take that (actually not very heavy) ICE out. What it doesn't do though is make for a dynamic drive - because even once you've hidden the weight with active ARB and trick suspension, the car is still some 30-40% heavier.
Wait for it because someone is about to come along and remind me that I don't have to spend my life at a fuel station (I don't - even in my daily it's 5 mins every 350-400 miles for 0.75s/mile of time cost)... whereas with an EV I can plug in and have a full charge each night. So that way I can spend 1 min daily plugging and unplugging... instead of 10 mins a month. Oh balls. That went well for team EV didn't it?
EV as a concept has a place, but it's fundamentally flawed to think it's the answer to everything. For the use cases where EV works, shopping cars, second cars, commuter cars I can see them being brilliant, but they don't fit everywhere.
As to the cost element leaving the whole purchase and running tax breaks out, lets just check this a little... because once critical mass is achieved, the gov will tax EVs too... at which point they look rather costly. Lets look at the [true] costs of fuel using my X3 as the example... It's an M40i and I get about 28mpg. At 193.9 (my last fill) that's 108.6p for the retailed fuel and 85.3p in tax. So I'm paying 17.63p/mile in fuel and 13.85p/mile in tax. Now lets trade it for an iX3 (I know it's not a real EV Teslaites) and say it does an optimistic 2.9m/kWH. At the current rate I'm on I will pay 27.6p/kWH which is then subject to 5% VAT... making it 28.98p/kWH. Conveniently that makes it 10p a mile, or 9.5p/mile ex VAT. True cost delta therefore is 8.1p/mile... or about £600 a year for the average 7200 miles... once you tax EVs like you tax petrol.
Carbon Cost? Well realistically if a daily car takes 40k miles for the EV to be cleaner than the petrol on CO2 total, in the nicest possible way most Astons, McLarens, Ferraris, Lambos etc are never going to be less CO2 intense as EVs. I hate to say it's a bit of a farce, but to the engineer in me, it does seem like it's a bit of farce.
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