Can Aston Martin Survive in the Electric Vehicle Era?

[SpeckledJim]

BiggaJ said:

Jon39 said:

I had previously applied logic and had therfore assumed, that when a hybrid battery fails, there is still a petrol or diesel engine under the bonnet, so just carry on driving IC only.
Oh no, if the hybrid battery is not up to scratch, then it seems the IC engine will not start.
Has that been engineered purposely, to sell more cars?

The case that I read about, was also an MB E-class hybrid. M-B of course want to sell new cars. In both instances the owners facing disaster, were not the original new car customers. Maybe that makes manufacturers even less interested in helping. Perhaps the new norm is for shorter life cars.

If this situation becomes widespread, which presumably it will, then buyers of second hand EVs and hybrids, will become very wary about buying those cars over 6 years old, when there is little, or no battery warranty remaining.

Apparently, the only way to run an EV is via a lease program. Again this came up in conversation with our bank relationship guy on Tuesday. The problem being that a 2 or 3 year old full EV looses twice as much in value as an equivalent ICE car. It basically all revolves around the battery capacity being less than it was to begin with and the potential for having to replace said battery within the next buyers ownership (very costly), plus they are not yet fully recyclable.

Like you Jon, I was under the impression all Hybrid's were built the same way aside from say Lexus which is self charging. I'm sure my car will run if the battery were to fail. I know it has a very small battery for starting the engine etc. so I believe if this hasn't malfunctioned then the car will run without the EV side of things. I may have have this wrong though.

Can you show us a single example of this being true?

Not a dissertation. Not even an essay. Just a single example.

[Piston Ted]

Chris Hinds said:

It's an interesting one, I'm not a professional historian, rather more of an Engineer but I suspect the bottom line is that in the early 20th century the key limitation of EV is much the same as now, the ability to store sufficient energy to make a viable vehicle. EV evangelists are quick to point out the truth that their motor is massively more efficient than a petrol engine (~85% at all times plays ~20% at all times), but neglect overall system efficiency in the calculation. Thus the efficiency of an EV is decreased massively by anything as crazy as using the heater or aircon because than ancillaries have to be driven by other motors... which have a nasty habit of using electricity and affecting range. In an ICE car the heater has [basically] 0 impact because the heat source is that ~80% of energy that isn't converted into rotation, whilst Aircon has a negligible effect because the extra load typically moves the engine into a more efficient point on the fuelling map i.e. the thermodynamic efficiency of the engine improves under load because an ICE in a car very rarely, if ever, runs at peak efficiency.

EV are in reality progressing because of tax breaks and because above all the current social agenda means one must not be seen to be a polluting oik. Thus one can have tat shipped all the way round the world from AsiaPac where it is made with no thought for the emissions created, because the last mile delivery is done with a green conscience in an Amazon Mercedes eSprinter. Governments only resort to bans when the thing they seek to invoke wouldn't sustainably last on its own two feet. IF (big IF) something is tangibly better it takes the market by storm and the inferior product dies out... see iPhone displacing Nokia, Fibre replacing ISDN/PSTN, Jet Engines replacing Pistons on aircraft etc etc etc. For cars the governments of the world have brought out the bans because the compromises to peoples lifestyles are simply too great for people to readily tolerate them without a significant amount of external influence.

For Sports cars the bit of the energy efficiency equation missed is the same one as affects aircraft, namely that the density of the energy storage (whether fuel or battery) affects the overall system efficiency... a heavy thing or a bulky thing are simply less agile than a light thing. 300 miles of fuel at 20mpg requires about 68l of fuel and about 80l of space for the tank, weighing about 70kg full. 300 miles of energy at 3 miles/kWH requires 100kWH of usable battery, or about 110kWH of actual battery weighing about 650kg and needing substantially more space (I can't find a quick reference for volumetric density). That extra 650kg needs bigger motors, bigger brakes etc to cope with the extra weight, plus extra clever damping to hide the weight... which is why an SUV EV weighs about 400kg more even after you take that (actually not very heavy) ICE out. What it doesn't do though is make for a dynamic drive - because even once you've hidden the weight with active ARB and trick suspension, the car is still some 30-40% heavier.

Wait for it because someone is about to come along and remind me that I don't have to spend my life at a fuel station (I don't - even in my daily it's 5 mins every 350-400 miles for 0.75s/mile of time cost)... whereas with an EV I can plug in and have a full charge each night. So that way I can spend 1 min daily plugging and unplugging... instead of 10 mins a month. Oh balls. That went well for team EV didn't it?

EV as a concept has a place, but it's fundamentally flawed to think it's the answer to everything. For the use cases where EV works, shopping cars, second cars, commuter cars I can see them being brilliant, but they don't fit everywhere.

As to the cost element leaving the whole purchase and running tax breaks out, lets just check this a little... because once critical mass is achieved, the gov will tax EVs too... at which point they look rather costly. Lets look at the [true] costs of fuel using my X3 as the example... It's an M40i and I get about 28mpg. At 193.9 (my last fill) that's 108.6p for the retailed fuel and 85.3p in tax. So I'm paying 17.63p/mile in fuel and 13.85p/mile in tax. Now lets trade it for an iX3 (I know it's not a real EV Teslaites) and say it does an optimistic 2.9m/kWH. At the current rate I'm on I will pay 27.6p/kWH which is then subject to 5% VAT... making it 28.98p/kWH. Conveniently that makes it 10p a mile, or 9.5p/mile ex VAT. True cost delta therefore is 8.1p/mile... or about £600 a year for the average 7200 miles... once you tax EVs like you tax petrol.

Carbon Cost? Well realistically if a daily car takes 40k miles for the EV to be cleaner than the petrol on CO2 total, in the nicest possible way most Astons, McLarens, Ferraris, Lambos etc are never going to be less CO2 intense as EVs. I hate to say it's a bit of a farce, but to the engineer in me, it does seem like it's a bit of farce.

What a very interesting read indeed, thank you very much for sharing. Perhaps you should pop along to the comments section on the recent PistonHeads E fuel article, the EV evangelists are out in force there!

[DMZ]

The thread started about a year ago. I guess EVs have advanced somewhat, they have gotten more market acceptance and Porsche is certainly not struggling to shift their electric GT.

I think in short Aston Martin could do really well with an EV. What EV buyer wouldn’t want a good looking fast EV? It doesn’t need to replace anything. People who want V12’s can and should still buy V12’s. The tax benefits for EV buyers would be huge (for now) and it would add a whiff of “modern” and “technology” to Aston Martin and could reach new buyers. You don’t need to worry about where the drivetrain is from either, they can just get some off the shelf stuff like Porsche eg the usual AMG route.

Would it be amazing or engaging to drive? Not really but there are very few EVs that are good to drive so a less busy market to try to standout. They wouldn’t have much to lose by doing it.

[dbs2000]

SpeckledJim said:

Can you show us a single example of this being true?

Not a dissertation. Not even an essay. Just a single example.

Indeed, thats absolute twoddle. EVs hold their value far better. Even a 10 year old Model S commands a premium.

[cardigankid]

I have to say, though I don't like them myself, 2014 Model S's with 100k miles + seem to retail between £30-35k, and I imagine that they actually work.

[Dewi 2]

cardigankid said:

I have to say, though I don't like them myself, 2014 Model S's with 100k miles + seem to retail between £30-35k, and I imagine that they actually work.

How many years battery warranty would be provided?

We, and I am sure other forums too, have discussed the EV and Hybrid subject in great detail.
I have learnt a great deal, including my previous understanding about continuing to drive a hybrid on IC after battery failure, is not
possible.

I have spoken to a few EV and hybrid owners and shown interest in their new cars.
What surprised me (although I did not say anything) was they all knew almost nothing about EV/Hybrids.
They said they bought their cars, because all cars will be battery after 2030.

Perhaps selling an 8 year old, 100,000 mile EV for £35,000 is quite easy, if the customers don't know much about them!

[cardigankid]

I wouldn't buy one, that's for sure, but presumably some people do.

[ds666]

If Aston Martin could make a beautiful looking coupe that went as well ( performance/handling ) as a Porsche Taycan, I think they'd
do very well indeed.

[Hoofy]

I'd love to know what a pure EV sports car is like to drive compared to a similar modern ICE. I don't mean a family car such as Tesla S or 3. Are there any current 2 seater EVs? Anyone driven one?

[dbs2000]

ds666 said:

If Aston Martin could make a beautiful looking coupe that went as well ( performance/handling ) as a Porsche Taycan, I think they'd
do very well indeed.

Exactly this. There is a market for people who want a 700hp DBX but also one for people who'd prefer that car to be an EV before they'd consider it. I sadly fall into the latter category, I have a model 3 and will change it once the lease is due for probably a Taycan. I don't want a silly v8 powering the family wagon wanting 100+ /week in fuel

[SpeckledJim]

Hoofy said:

I'd love to know what a pure EV sports car is like to drive compared to a similar modern ICE. I don't mean a family car such as Tesla S or 3. Are there any current 2 seater EVs? Anyone driven one?

There aren't any, in the mass-market, at the moment. I think the manufacturers know it's a harder sell than an EV saloon or SUV.

Even ICE sportscars in the ICE era are/were often border-line business cases.

In theory (heavily caveated) they could be superb. EV offers superior torque, superior weight-distribution, potentially superior packaging, and effectively infinitely sophisticated four-wheel or two-wheel torque vectoring.

For an A-to-A pure toy, you'll also have the benefit of almost zero maintenance faff and expense, and the little joy of starting every journey with a full tank.

But they won't sound like a V12. Everyone can decide for themselves how important that is.

[ds666]

dbs2000 said:

ds666 said:

If Aston Martin could make a beautiful looking coupe that went as well ( performance/handling ) as a Porsche Taycan, I think they'd
do very well indeed.

Exactly this. There is a market for people who want a 700hp DBX but also one for people who'd prefer that car to be an EV before they'd consider it. I sadly fall into the latter category, I have a model 3 and will change it once the lease is due for probably a Taycan. I don't want a silly v8 powering the family wagon wanting 100+ /week in fuel

Charging at home on a cheap tariff , my Taycan (623ps) is doing the equivalent of 480 mpg . Elsewhere it is still in the 40's mpg .

If you think what we've lost in terms of " pure " driving over the years - n/a , manual gearbox , both pretty hard to get new , noise is what's left . A decent sound generator should fix that . Ok , would still be silent outside but that's a good thing , no ?

Is there green logic in where we are going ? Don't know , but don't fear the electric age.

[Hoofy]

SpeckledJim said:

Hoofy said:

I'd love to know what a pure EV sports car is like to drive compared to a similar modern ICE. I don't mean a family car such as Tesla S or 3. Are there any current 2 seater EVs? Anyone driven one?

There aren't any, in the mass-market, at the moment. I think the manufacturers know it's a harder sell than an EV saloon or SUV.

Even ICE sportscars in the ICE era are/were often border-line business cases.

In theory (heavily caveated) they could be superb. EV offers superior torque, superior weight-distribution, potentially superior packaging, and effectively infinitely sophisticated four-wheel or two-wheel torque vectoring.

For an A-to-A pure toy, you'll also have the benefit of almost zero maintenance faff and expense, and the little joy of starting every journey with a full tank.

But they won't sound like a V12. Everyone can decide for themselves how important that is.

Good point re the harder sell. Never thought about it like that.

I guess we'll have to wait for whatever Lotus are launching. I guess even Porsche aren't bothered as they don't have an EV sports car.

The sound is part of the experience - and that is what it is. Driving a sports car is supposed to be an experience. The EV whine doesn't do it for me.

EVs make sense as fridges or vacuum cleaners. Useful, can look nice. I don't whip out the vacuum cleaner because I fancy having a clean even if the floor is already clean.

That said, I will give them a go before making a judgement.

[ds666]

Chris Hinds said:

As to the cost element leaving the whole purchase and running tax breaks out, lets just check this a little... because once critical mass is achieved, the gov will tax EVs too... at which point they look rather costly. Lets look at the [true] costs of fuel using my X3 as the example... It's an M40i and I get about 28mpg. At 193.9 (my last fill) that's 108.6p for the retailed fuel and 85.3p in tax. So I'm paying 17.63p/mile in fuel and 13.85p/mile in tax. Now lets trade it for an iX3 (I know it's not a real EV Teslaites) and say it does an optimistic 2.9m/kWH. At the current rate I'm on I will pay 27.6p/kWH which is then subject to 5% VAT... making it 28.98p/kWH. Conveniently that makes it 10p a mile, or 9.5p/mile ex VAT. True cost delta therefore is 8.1p/mile... or about £600 a year for the average 7200 miles... once you tax EVs like you tax petrol.

.

Off peak , even today , you can get 6p/kWH

[SpeckledJim]

Hoofy said:

SpeckledJim said:

Hoofy said:

I'd love to know what a pure EV sports car is like to drive compared to a similar modern ICE. I don't mean a family car such as Tesla S or 3. Are there any current 2 seater EVs? Anyone driven one?

There aren't any, in the mass-market, at the moment. I think the manufacturers know it's a harder sell than an EV saloon or SUV.

Even ICE sportscars in the ICE era are/were often border-line business cases.

In theory (heavily caveated) they could be superb. EV offers superior torque, superior weight-distribution, potentially superior packaging, and effectively infinitely sophisticated four-wheel or two-wheel torque vectoring.

For an A-to-A pure toy, you'll also have the benefit of almost zero maintenance faff and expense, and the little joy of starting every journey with a full tank.

But they won't sound like a V12. Everyone can decide for themselves how important that is.

Good point re the harder sell. Never thought about it like that.

I guess we'll have to wait for whatever Lotus are launching. I guess even Porsche aren't bothered as they don't have an EV sports car.

The sound is part of the experience - and that is what it is. Driving a sports car is supposed to be an experience. The EV whine doesn't do it for me.

EVs make sense as fridges or vacuum cleaners. Useful, can look nice. I don't whip out the vacuum cleaner because I fancy having a clean even if the floor is already clean.

That said, I will give them a go before making a judgement.

They're definitely on the way. It's just that they are starting with the bread-and-butter cars first, for sensible reasons.

The sports car isn't going away just because it's getting quieter. For every person who decides they don't want an electric Porsche or Aston Martin or Ferrari or MX-5 because of what those cars have lost, there will be someone who wants one because of what those cars have gained.

Flash cars will still be flash. We just won't be able to hear a cold-start from the other side of the gated community.

Today's ICE are already hugely sanitised in comparison to an 'old car' driving experience. But how many people with the means to have either say 'I don't want a brand new 911, I want the pure driving experience of a 1968 Lotus Elan?' Almost none.

The drive is important, of course, but only really within the context of the contemporary options. When everything is electric, then the best-driving option will be the choice of the enthusiast. I can't see very many retiring from enthusiastic driving for the want of an exhaust note. Some might. But not many.

[Piston Ted]

SpeckledJim said:

But they won't sound like a V12. Everyone can decide for themselves how important that is.

For me VERY important I’m afraid. More important than the 0-60 time, more important than whether it’s the best in its class for handling, more important than having apple car play music (or whatever it’s called) more important than the latest touch screen glued to the dashboard and certainly far far more important than ‘the joy’ of starting a journey with 100% juice.

[Hoofy]

SpeckledJim said:

They're definitely on the way. It's just that they are starting with the bread-and-butter cars first, for sensible reasons.

The sports car isn't going away just because it's getting quieter. For every person who decides they don't want an electric Porsche or Aston Martin or Ferrari or MX-5 because of what those cars have lost, there will be someone who wants one because of what those cars have gained.

Flash cars will still be flash. We just won't be able to hear a cold-start from the other side of the gated community.

Today's ICE are already hugely sanitised in comparison to an 'old car' driving experience. But how many people with the means to have either say 'I don't want a brand new 911, I want the pure driving experience of a 1968 Lotus Elan?' Almost none.

The drive is important, of course, but only really within the context of the contemporary options. When everything is electric, then the best-driving option will be the choice of the enthusiast. I can't see very many retiring from enthusiastic driving for the want of an exhaust note. Some might. But not many.

Fair points. It will be a shame but that's the problem with ICE and the environment. At least I can come back late at night without feeling like I'm annoying anyone (apart from the ultra bright LEDs turning the 2am night into daytime).

[Jon39]

Hoofy said:

I'd love to know what a pure EV sports car is like to drive compared to a similar modern ICE.

(Richard Hammond might be able to tell you how the 2 seater Rimac performs.)

............

Facetious suggestion, but you never know, it might be true.

Take a perfectly balanced (front/rear) Aston Martin Vantage, then strap in 1 ton of lead weights.
Drive around the twisty Cadwell Park circuit as fast as you can and report back with your findings.
Take care at the downhill approach to the Hairpin corner. You might find the car understeering off the track towards Skegness!

Edited by Jon39 on Thursday 14th July 13:39

[Jon39]

I expect you have all noticed, that EV buyers spend say £75,000 to £100,000 on an electric car, then immediately say how cheap the fuel is.
Why are they even worried about fuel cost?

Must be almost the same as people who buy a £100,000 motor home, go to a campsite and discuss how much they save each year on 3 weeks hotel cost. Perhaps they are the same people! They cannot be accountants.

[dbs2000]

Jon39 said:

I expect you have all noticed, that EV buyers spend say £75,000 to £100,000 on an electric car, then immediately say how cheap the fuel is.
Why are they even worried about fuel cost?

Must be almost the same as people who buy a £100,000 motor home, go to a campsite and discuss how much they save each year on 3 weeks hotel cost. Perhaps they are the same people! They cannot be accountants.

Yes, the Model 3/Kia/Hyundai/Ford/Honda/Peugeot/etc are indeed 75-100k to buy.....