Predictions for future classics
Discussion
srob said:
To an extent yes. It can't solely be that though or the most expensive bikes wouldn't be the oldest? Nobody remembers riding a 1928 Norton Model 18 but try buying a decent one for under 20 grand. And they're not mega rare.
The demographic for the really good old stuff is certainly changing to a younger collector than ever I'd say, which is why really good stuff is still commanding a good price but the 'porridge' isn't.
There's just so much 50s and 60s stuff has survived that there's way more of them than there is buyers now, which isn't the case for the earlier stuff as less survived I guess.
I think vintage (or pre 1930ish or maybe pre ww2 - I'm not sure where the cutoff should be) stuff is a different market entirely. Bikes then were hand built out of brass, whale testicles and ivory for the discerning gentleman - they cost a lot then, there weren't many made (in comparison to later) and although a larger propertion survive, the actual numbers are low - rarity again.The demographic for the really good old stuff is certainly changing to a younger collector than ever I'd say, which is why really good stuff is still commanding a good price but the 'porridge' isn't.
There's just so much 50s and 60s stuff has survived that there's way more of them than there is buyers now, which isn't the case for the earlier stuff as less survived I guess.
Post WW2 bikes were churned out in massively larger numbers and because of this the hoi polloi could (and did!) buy them first as essential transport and then as objects of desire as well.
15 years since I started this thread, a third of my life ago!
Funnily enough I bought some of the bargains that would go up and although made money on some, should have just sat on them. I sold a lovely 996S with genuine carbon Ducati monoposto for £3k to buy an 1198! A 2000 mile as new 750 SRAD. Bought and sold for £2500!
Missed out on a mint VJ22 RGV 250 about 10 years ago, as seller wanted £2800 and I would only go to £2600. Similar story with a ZXR750R M for £4000.
I didn't see the Honda C90 market going mad, or I'd have sat on my collection of them!
As for the next wave of classics?
Analogue superbikes I reckon. They will be relatively cheap to maintain, more reliable than current crop (old IMUs, sensors and 15+ year old TFTs anyone?). To this end I would say, per 2017 GSXR1000, pre 2016 Fireblades, Ducati 1198s, Aprilia Tuono and RSV V twins. Perhaps Daytona 675s.
V twin sports Ducatis up to 1299 Panigale. Tick the box on sportsbike golden era and also V twin sports bikes are thing of the past.
SV650s maybe - lots raced, lots used by millenials as first proper bikes, rare to find nice ones. Similar to why RD350s and sports 400s went up.
Funnily enough I bought some of the bargains that would go up and although made money on some, should have just sat on them. I sold a lovely 996S with genuine carbon Ducati monoposto for £3k to buy an 1198! A 2000 mile as new 750 SRAD. Bought and sold for £2500!
Missed out on a mint VJ22 RGV 250 about 10 years ago, as seller wanted £2800 and I would only go to £2600. Similar story with a ZXR750R M for £4000.
I didn't see the Honda C90 market going mad, or I'd have sat on my collection of them!
As for the next wave of classics?
Analogue superbikes I reckon. They will be relatively cheap to maintain, more reliable than current crop (old IMUs, sensors and 15+ year old TFTs anyone?). To this end I would say, per 2017 GSXR1000, pre 2016 Fireblades, Ducati 1198s, Aprilia Tuono and RSV V twins. Perhaps Daytona 675s.
V twin sports Ducatis up to 1299 Panigale. Tick the box on sportsbike golden era and also V twin sports bikes are thing of the past.
SV650s maybe - lots raced, lots used by millenials as first proper bikes, rare to find nice ones. Similar to why RD350s and sports 400s went up.
cwis said:
I think vintage (or pre 1930ish or maybe pre ww2 - I'm not sure where the cutoff should be) stuff is a different market entirely. Bikes then were hand built out of brass, whale testicles and ivory for the discerning gentleman - they cost a lot then, there weren't many made (in comparison to later) and although a larger propertion survive, the actual numbers are low - rarity again.
Post WW2 bikes were churned out in massively larger numbers and because of this the hoi polloi could (and did!) buy them first as essential transport and then as objects of desire as well.
No doubt at all they're a different market. Just means that the whole "people only buy what they remember" thing isn't solely true. It has a say in the nostalgia thing, but there are loads of people who ride bikes way older than they'd remember. Me and my mates are among them.Post WW2 bikes were churned out in massively larger numbers and because of this the hoi polloi could (and did!) buy them first as essential transport and then as objects of desire as well.
I reckon there was probably more bikes produced pre-war as hardly anyone could afford a car, but a massive amount of them were lost to the war effort and scrapped so fewer survived
srob said:
The arse has completely fallen out of the 1950s and 1960s market, which nobody predicted. My theory is they're about the hardest of all the classics to start and the old boys are struggling, so they're all selling up. And as there's so many of them it's a buyers market. Luckily we sold our DBD34 just before the bubble burst as they've been hit super-hard.
I suspect the rise in interest rates has also had an effect. Where people used to think they may as well have a bike in the shed as have money in the bank as it wasn't getting anything, now they're selling up as money in the bank is worth having.
Good things are still making good money, and vintage bikes seem less affected than 50s-60s bikes, which blows the theory about people only being interested in what they remember out the water!
I was in a fish and chip on an A-road thoroughfare in January and there was an elderly gent waiting who had a few bikes including a Greeves and he recounted how he got one of his old bikes out to ride on a funeral procession of a friend and watching a video of the procession later he said he could see how he was struggling to ride whichever motorcycle he was on due to the size of the bike and his age and strength. I suspect the rise in interest rates has also had an effect. Where people used to think they may as well have a bike in the shed as have money in the bank as it wasn't getting anything, now they're selling up as money in the bank is worth having.
Good things are still making good money, and vintage bikes seem less affected than 50s-60s bikes, which blows the theory about people only being interested in what they remember out the water!
I think that Bangers and Cash programme has espoused that the truly old stuff, pre and post war, isn't expensive comparatively as the interest isn't there as the demographic that has a link to that period and those vehicles is dwindling.
I saw a 1930s Riley Kestrel being used on the road and not at a show or in a museum a year ago and it looked fantastic, quite low, arse down and rakish. I think the proportions and stance grabbed me.
hiccy18 said:
So 00's should (in theory) be the next appreciation period, but given the demise of sports bikes during that era, is it a given that they will become the most collectible? I can see GS's being wanted, but kinda difficult to see much misty-eyed clamouring for ST1300's or R1100RS's.
The 00's gave the most mental sportsbikes. First gen zx10r, K5 GSXR1000, RSV4, 1098R. I don't think they'll be in the same hyperspace as RC30's, OW01's and GSXR-RR's as they weren't extremely exotic at the time, plus they've been used and abused (not so much the 1098R though). Personally, I think people are actually scared to ride them as they don't have this 'n that safety interventions and they were pretty full-on for the time anyway. Which will put them into a niche market where they're not blue-chip investment vehicle type of thing like the ~1989 era homologation 750's and people who want to buy something to occassionally ride will buy something which "isn't going to kill you". I'd love a 04 ZX10R, K5, 09 RSV4 and 1098R....Re the GS, the clean 80's are pretty pricey now. Will a 1200 or whatever be something a collector would pay big bucks for in twenty years time? Mmmm, I dunno.... Same as they'd be pretty unlikely to fork out big bucks for a ST or R1100RS.
Well, I’ve been watching the Bonhams sale from Stafford and I think it’s safe to say the bubble hasn’t burst!
I bid on a project which I was willing to go to a grand for. Estimate was £300-500, sold for nearly £3000.
Then I thought maybe the kids MV would be fun for a laugh. Estimate was about £500, sold for £6900.
From what I’ve seen almost everything’s sold over estimate so far!
I bid on a project which I was willing to go to a grand for. Estimate was £300-500, sold for nearly £3000.
Then I thought maybe the kids MV would be fun for a laugh. Estimate was about £500, sold for £6900.
From what I’ve seen almost everything’s sold over estimate so far!
rodericb said:
hiccy18 said:
So 00's should (in theory) be the next appreciation period, but given the demise of sports bikes during that era, is it a given that they will become the most collectible? I can see GS's being wanted, but kinda difficult to see much misty-eyed clamouring for ST1300's or R1100RS's.
The 00's gave the most mental sportsbikes. First gen zx10r, K5 GSXR1000, RSV4, 1098R. I don't think they'll be in the same hyperspace as RC30's, OW01's and GSXR-RR's as they weren't extremely exotic at the time, plus they've been used and abused (not so much the 1098R though). Personally, I think people are actually scared to ride them as they don't have this 'n that safety interventions and they were pretty full-on for the time anyway. Which will put them into a niche market where they're not blue-chip investment vehicle type of thing like the ~1989 era homologation 750's and people who want to buy something to occassionally ride will buy something which "isn't going to kill you". I'd love a 04 ZX10R, K5, 09 RSV4 and 1098R....Re the GS, the clean 80's are pretty pricey now. Will a 1200 or whatever be something a collector would pay big bucks for in twenty years time? Mmmm, I dunno.... Same as they'd be pretty unlikely to fork out big bucks for a ST or R1100RS.
Bob_Defly said:
I think the big difference will be what is actually maintainable and rideable vs materials and tech that just doesn't age well. So anything that can be kept running without OEM parts will do fine. But anything where the plastics turn sticky and the TFT screen has issues isn't going to age well IMHO. E.g. Didn't 00's Ducati's have plastic tanks that expand with the wrong fuel?
Yeah, that's an excellent point. I've not heard of plastics going sticky (but can suffer from oxidizing if exposed to UV) but the plastic tanks on bikes - most notoriously Ducatis around the era of the 1098 - don't take too kindly to ethanol in fuel. It's not a Ducati-only thing regarding the fuel tanks but you might have an easier time sourcing a metal fuel tank (or an aftermarket plastic tank) for a 1098 as they were the poster child for swelling fuel tanks.....Regarding the TFT screens some bikes already have aftermarket support with plug and play aftermarket screens like the AIM displays (https://www.aim-sportline.com/en/products-bike.htm) so your options will vary. But then you'll be removing some of the originality which could count for something in the future.... would we get to the stage where someone would be tooled-up to fix a 1098 display? I wouldn't count on it...but it would be great if someone in the world did.
I think one of the reasons Bimota are a bit hit 'n miss is that they don't do that much more than the bikes they get the engines from already do but they go their own way with the bits which will make a bike unusable if they pack up and these things can be a real pain for mere mortals to get sorted. Like how the DB's with the Testrastretta Evo engine use Walbro ECU's and these are painful to get the software for....
rodericb said:
Yeah, that's an excellent point. I've not heard of plastics going sticky (but can suffer from oxidizing if exposed to UV) but the plastic tanks on bikes - most notoriously Ducatis around the era of the 1098 - don't take too kindly to ethanol in fuel. It's not a Ducati-only thing regarding the fuel tanks but you might have an easier time sourcing a metal fuel tank (or an aftermarket plastic tank) for a 1098 as they were the poster child for swelling fuel tanks.....
Regarding the TFT screens some bikes already have aftermarket support with plug and play aftermarket screens like the AIM displays (https://www.aim-sportline.com/en/products-bike.htm) so your options will vary. But then you'll be removing some of the originality which could count for something in the future.... would we get to the stage where someone would be tooled-up to fix a 1098 display? I wouldn't count on it...but it would be great if someone in the world did.
I think one of the reasons Bimota are a bit hit 'n miss is that they don't do that much more than the bikes they get the engines from already do but they go their own way with the bits which will make a bike unusable if they pack up and these things can be a real pain for mere mortals to get sorted. Like how the DB's with the Testrastretta Evo engine use Walbro ECU's and these are painful to get the software for....
I do think there will be an element of that too. Regarding the TFT screens some bikes already have aftermarket support with plug and play aftermarket screens like the AIM displays (https://www.aim-sportline.com/en/products-bike.htm) so your options will vary. But then you'll be removing some of the originality which could count for something in the future.... would we get to the stage where someone would be tooled-up to fix a 1098 display? I wouldn't count on it...but it would be great if someone in the world did.
I think one of the reasons Bimota are a bit hit 'n miss is that they don't do that much more than the bikes they get the engines from already do but they go their own way with the bits which will make a bike unusable if they pack up and these things can be a real pain for mere mortals to get sorted. Like how the DB's with the Testrastretta Evo engine use Walbro ECU's and these are painful to get the software for....
But, if the desire is there to keep those bikes on the road an industry will be born off the back of it. Vintage (pre-31) bikes were worth nothing when my dad first got into them in the 1960s. Literally you could pick most up for what the scrap weight was. So because of that you couldn’t get new spares and people made do with what they could get. You weren’t going to spend (the equivalent of) £250 for a new carburettor if the bike’s only worth 40 quid.
Once the values started going up though people started remaking bits. Now, people like the Velocette owners club have spares remade. That would’ve been unheard of to buy a new exhaust for a 50 year old bike.
I think similar will happen with modern classics. I work a lot with reverse engineering and 3D printing and things like switch gear could be made in a day. Some originality will be lost but all restored bikes use ‘pattern’ parts.
My experience of owning a Bimota was that they as enthusiasts are doing that already, with loads of spares available
kissmyrs said:
Really surprised at the low value of (some) Ducati's at the moment.
The 748/916 bikes are going for sub-3 grand. Must be worth more in the future.
ST's are really cheap. ST4 bikes are going for sub £2k (I've just bought an 8000 mile old bike for £1850). Very underrated bikes in my mind.
I'm also hoping the Fireblade RRW 929 will be a future classic. I've got one of them too!
Looking back to this post the 748/916 have increased in value nicely. I had one about 4 yrs and got all my money back plus 500 quid which is nice.The 748/916 bikes are going for sub-3 grand. Must be worth more in the future.
ST's are really cheap. ST4 bikes are going for sub £2k (I've just bought an 8000 mile old bike for £1850). Very underrated bikes in my mind.
I'm also hoping the Fireblade RRW 929 will be a future classic. I've got one of them too!
Edited by kissmyrs on Sunday 8th November 17:58
Currently sat with a beautiful 92 plate 851 that's nicer to ride than the 748/916 shape bikes and hoping it also wipes its bum in a few years!
srob said:
Well, I’ve been watching the Bonhams sale from Stafford and I think it’s safe to say the bubble hasn’t burst!
I bid on a project which I was willing to go to a grand for. Estimate was £300-500, sold for nearly £3000.
Then I thought maybe the kids MV would be fun for a laugh. Estimate was about £500, sold for £6900.
From what I’ve seen almost everything’s sold over estimate so far!
I was watching this too Rob, partly to see how the market was responding and it was staggering to see how 'buoyant' the auction market was compared to how flat the private sellers market seems. What is it about a mostly blind auction as a lot of those bids were off the internet.I bid on a project which I was willing to go to a grand for. Estimate was £300-500, sold for nearly £3000.
Then I thought maybe the kids MV would be fun for a laugh. Estimate was about £500, sold for £6900.
From what I’ve seen almost everything’s sold over estimate so far!
I was in the market for that little kids MV (ok it wasn't a genuine MV) but it was identical to an Omer bike my grandad bought for me as a kid which had the same minarelli 50cc engine and looked identical to that MV.
https://cars.bonhams.com/auction/29273/lot/253/pro...
Estimate was 400-600 and as you say ended at £6900, I could hardly believe how rapidly that shot up.
By comparison, what also caught my eye at the opposite end of the scale, was the 2012 ex BSB BMW S1000RR
https://cars.bonhams.com/auction/29273/lot/250/ex-...
which had an estimate of £12,000-£15,000 and went for £7,575 incl. premium with all the toys on it.
The older stuff was also fetching big money. So seems there is a bit of renewed interest in the older stuff.
I didn't bid for anything in the end. I would have liked the MHR aluminium fuel tank but couldn't be sure if it would fit my model year, that also went for more than the estimate.
NITO said:
I was watching this too Rob, partly to see how the market was responding and it was staggering to see how 'buoyant' the auction market was compared to how flat the private sellers market seems. What is it about a mostly blind auction as a lot of those bids were off the internet.
I was in the market for that little kids MV (ok it wasn't a genuine MV) but it was identical to an Omer bike my grandad bought for me as a kid which had the same minarelli 50cc engine and looked identical to that MV.
https://cars.bonhams.com/auction/29273/lot/253/pro...
Estimate was 400-600 and as you say ended at £6900, I could hardly believe how rapidly that shot up.
By comparison, what also caught my eye at the opposite end of the scale, was the 2012 ex BSB BMW S1000RR
https://cars.bonhams.com/auction/29273/lot/250/ex-...
which had an estimate of £12,000-£15,000 and went for £7,575 incl. premium with all the toys on it.
The older stuff was also fetching big money. So seems there is a bit of renewed interest in the older stuff.
I didn't bid for anything in the end. I would have liked the MHR aluminium fuel tank but couldn't be sure if it would fit my model year, that also went for more than the estimate.
Yeah it is odd. I hadn't actually realised just how many auctions there are now, until I went through Old Bike Mart with someone pointing out that on nearly every page was an advert for another auction somewhere!I was in the market for that little kids MV (ok it wasn't a genuine MV) but it was identical to an Omer bike my grandad bought for me as a kid which had the same minarelli 50cc engine and looked identical to that MV.
https://cars.bonhams.com/auction/29273/lot/253/pro...
Estimate was 400-600 and as you say ended at £6900, I could hardly believe how rapidly that shot up.
By comparison, what also caught my eye at the opposite end of the scale, was the 2012 ex BSB BMW S1000RR
https://cars.bonhams.com/auction/29273/lot/250/ex-...
which had an estimate of £12,000-£15,000 and went for £7,575 incl. premium with all the toys on it.
The older stuff was also fetching big money. So seems there is a bit of renewed interest in the older stuff.
I didn't bid for anything in the end. I would have liked the MHR aluminium fuel tank but couldn't be sure if it would fit my model year, that also went for more than the estimate.
I do think it's just a case of supply outstripping demand. The demand is still there for 'good' stuff, and some good stuff is just saturating the market (like DBD34s) which is bringing their value down.
As I'm on the younger send of the scale for old bike enthusiasts I'm quite pleased, means I can now start looking for bikes I thought were going to be out of reach! Current itch is a late 30s Norton International...
srob said:
Yeah it is odd. I hadn't actually realised just how many auctions there are now, until I went through Old Bike Mart with someone pointing out that on nearly every page was an advert for another auction somewhere!
I do think it's just a case of supply outstripping demand. The demand is still there for 'good' stuff, and some good stuff is just saturating the market (like DBD34s) which is bringing their value down.
As I'm on the younger send of the scale for old bike enthusiasts I'm quite pleased, means I can now start looking for bikes I thought were going to be out of reach! Current itch is a late 30s Norton International...
It's strange, I'm finding myself regressing in time. My oldest bike is a '78 currently but I'm slowly starting to go older and older. I found an old pic (1940-44) of my Grandad on an AJS 37/12 (1937) Girder forks. This got me looking at the AJS boy racer 7R, Matchless model X and current crush, an Egli Vincent, not to mention unobtainable Broughs which I have always liked!! I have to say the Vincents look stunning in their execution, I always liked the Black Knight models which seem to have come down a lot in price recently though still stratospheric, and there are a couple of almost reasonably priced replica Egli Vincents (Godet/JMC).I do think it's just a case of supply outstripping demand. The demand is still there for 'good' stuff, and some good stuff is just saturating the market (like DBD34s) which is bringing their value down.
As I'm on the younger send of the scale for old bike enthusiasts I'm quite pleased, means I can now start looking for bikes I thought were going to be out of reach! Current itch is a late 30s Norton International...
On the more modest stuff, there seems to be some lovely old bikes at sensible money, although little MV Disco Volante's and the like still fetch a premium. On Car and Classic there were some lovely old 250-350cc Italian race bikes, some of which went very cheap, I think there was a Benelli Mojave (lovely bike at 4k), a Guzzi (went for a more expensive 10k) and an MV Ipotesi (seemed a bargain for 5k). 2 went for less than I thought and one comparatively for more. Good old auctions, all over the place.
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