Gone very quiet

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Mr Whippy

29,071 posts

242 months

Monday 20th February 2023
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skwdenyer said:
Flooble said:
D2C = Direct to Consumer?

So the producer cutting out the reseller and/or vertical integration?
Sorry, yes, Direct to Consumer. So a fashion brand imports the garments, but doesn't bother selling any on to wholesale customers, but instead just sells via its own website (and, maybe, through a few owned retail outlets in key markets).
It’s not bullish for these big companies just taking money to front-end your product.

Google etc, then the big online platforms.

I just see anything coming via those now as a front-end to generic Chinese tat.

You go for the brand you trust (or think you can), and in doing so will then naturally go directly to them.

That makes sense to me.

jammy-git

29,778 posts

213 months

Monday 20th February 2023
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Louis Balfour said:
fridaypassion said:
I've just had my 3/4 through the year update fro the book keeper really feeling the affects of the covid hangover! We still have until the end of March to go and this year has been super busy since Jan but looking like we will have done around 60% of the profit/Turnover of 2020 and 2021! We are far from struggling at those numbers but just brings home how completely nuts the Covid period was for us (car trade). The last quarter of last year was one of the quietest I can remember so that quarter has a lot to answer for in our 22 figures!
I've been pondering the used car business, in the light of interest rate increases and finance reschedules.

There are people who had 3/4/5 year finance deals with a balloon, who will be coming to the end of their deals soon. They may have got the money at 4-8% originally, maybe cheaper with new car promotions. But, with interest rates now far higher, I am assuming that the reschedules are going to come as a bit of a shock. Unless the finance companies are going to allow people to wash out the balloons over a longer period.
My sister-in-law and her husband both bought brand new cars in the last couple of years, kept them less than 18 months and then sold them for 4 figure profits after paying off the remaining finance. I wonder if high residual values will be the saving grace of those who have cars on finance...?

fridaypassion

8,582 posts

229 months

Tuesday 21st February 2023
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In the normal car market yes 100% we bought a macan 18 months ago it's hardly dropped in price. Range Rovers and the like are the same.

This isn't likely to change any time soon. My stock is full on discretionary spending so things are a bit more exposed for us.

Fusion777

2,244 posts

49 months

Tuesday 21st February 2023
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jammy-git said:
My sister-in-law and her husband both bought brand new cars in the last couple of years, kept them less than 18 months and then sold them for 4 figure profits after paying off the remaining finance. I wonder if high residual values will be the saving grace of those who have cars on finance...?
Depends whether you think residual prices will stay high with the aforementioned interest rate increases. The past 3 years has been a completely anomalous period which is unlikely to be repeated.

fridaypassion

8,582 posts

229 months

Tuesday 21st February 2023
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Manufacturers will never make the same numbers of ICE cars now so the strangulation of production will keep residuals very high for the rest of the life of ICE cars. If you long for the days of hideous depreciation you'll have to go electric!

Thin White Duke

2,336 posts

161 months

Tuesday 21st February 2023
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Dr Interceptor said:
105.4 said:
One particular stat which I like to keep an eye on is the price of a loaf of bread. £1.10-£1.15 for a loaf of Hovis or Warrburtons a few months ago, (which it had stayed at for ages), compared to £1.40-£1.50 a loaf now.
I just paid £2.10 for a loaf of Warburtons seeded at the local Co-Op on the way into work!
I paid £6.50 for a 500 pack of Sainsburys printer paper last week when a year ago it was £3.50.


RicksAlfas

13,408 posts

245 months

Tuesday 21st February 2023
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Thin White Duke said:
I paid £6.50 for a 500 pack of Sainsburys printer paper last week when a year ago it was £3.50.
Over the last 12-18 months paper has had a perfect storm of raw material price increases, mills which use huge amounts of energy for production, mill and transport strikes in Scandinavia, and a massive increase in demand for pulp as the world turns away from plastic packaging.

Be glad you are not a printer like me!

jammy-git

29,778 posts

213 months

Tuesday 21st February 2023
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My sister is a freelance architect - mostly smaller residential stuff; a lot of house extensions, attic conversions, renovations, the odd bigger house build or very small multi-property development.

Anyway, she's been flat out since forever and has plenty of work going into the rest of this year. Most of the builders she works with are all still quite busy too. This is Kent area.

M1AGM

2,357 posts

33 months

Wednesday 22nd February 2023
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Interesting. Had a review meeting with our architect earlier today who said up here (North Yorkshire) her view was that middle of 2022 everything was mad busy and prices went through the roof, but since Truss (no pun intended), a lot of the projects she has worked on for domestic extensions have been put on ice mainly due to increased borrowing costs and uncertainty about the future.

dangerousB

1,697 posts

191 months

Wednesday 22nd February 2023
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RicksAlfas said:
Over the last 12-18 months paper has had a perfect storm of raw material price increases, mills which use huge amounts of energy for production, mill and transport strikes in Scandinavia, and a massive increase in demand for pulp as the world turns away from plastic packaging.

Be glad you are not a printer like me!
Quite.

We decided to migrate away from in-house production about 4/5 years ago (digital, not litho) and very glad we did - the price increases from trade houses in the last 12 - 18 months have been eye-opening.

Our Xerox digital system is now just an unnecessarily large proofing device and once it's no longer supported definitely won't be replaced!

sagarich

1,216 posts

150 months

Tuesday 28th February 2023
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Spoke to my Barber earlier and she's really struggling. I've seen them grow to 3 shops over the last 10 years, but in the last 12 months she has closed two and only just about covering overheads with the remaining premises.

Seems to be a mixture of biz rates, utilities and also customers reducing frequency to as much as 8 week gaps.



r3g

3,201 posts

25 months

Tuesday 28th February 2023
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My mate with his own MOT garage is still stacked out with work. Diary full for 2 weeks, having to turn work away. Increased MOT price from £45 to £50 in November and also his hourly labour rate for servicing and light repairs. Has to be careful taking on the bigger ticket jobs to stay under VAT.

egor110

16,893 posts

204 months

Tuesday 28th February 2023
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Business is bombing in farm machinery.

We've got more work coming in than engineers.

In our locality one dealer is £100 hour labour were £75.

Covid era machinery purchases are now turning up plus we've had to book 50 build slots so that's all turning up as well.

Louis Balfour

26,321 posts

223 months

Tuesday 28th February 2023
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egor110 said:
Business is bombing in farm machinery.

We've got more work coming in than engineers.

In our locality one dealer is £100 hour labour were £75.

Covid era machinery purchases are now turning up plus we've had to book 50 build slots so that's all turning up as well.
Now, have a think. Is business bombing or booming? The two situations are diametrically opposite.


egor110

16,893 posts

204 months

Tuesday 28th February 2023
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Louis Balfour said:
egor110 said:
Business is bombing in farm machinery.

We've got more work coming in than engineers.

In our locality one dealer is £100 hour labour were £75.

Covid era machinery purchases are now turning up plus we've had to book 50 build slots so that's all turning up as well.
Now, have a think. Is business bombing or booming? The two situations are diametrically opposite.
Very much booming.

anonymous-user

55 months

Tuesday 28th February 2023
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r3g said:
My mate with his own MOT garage is still stacked out with work. Diary full for 2 weeks, having to turn work away. Increased MOT price from £45 to £50 in November and also his hourly labour rate for servicing and light repairs.
I found this when I tried to book an MOT in November last year, everywhere had a 3 week wait.

sagarich said:
Spoke to my Barber earlier and she's really struggling. I've seen them grow to 3 shops over the last 10 years, but in the last 12 months she has closed two and only just about covering overheads with the remaining premises.
Interesting as during Covid my barber went to an appointment only based system which to be honest I massively preferred. I tried to book an appointment with them yesterday, and now out of the 3 barbers, only one accepts bookings per day, it appears they are slowly phasing this out and going back to the walk in system they had before.

Also some days they only have two barbers working at a time, so I can only assume there is not enough work to keep three of them going at once.


DSLiverpool

14,764 posts

203 months

Tuesday 28th February 2023
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Joey Deacon said:
Interesting as during Covid my barber went to an appointment only based system which to be honest I massively preferred. I tried to book an appointment with them yesterday, and now out of the 3 barbers, only one accepts bookings per day, it appears they are slowly phasing this out and going back to the walk in system they had before.

Also some days they only have two barbers working at a time, so I can only assume there is not enough work to keep three of them going at once.
This is because of the huge amount of mainly Turkish Barbers that have proliferated over the last 2/3 years - one on every block by me.

Sheepshanks

32,807 posts

120 months

Tuesday 28th February 2023
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sagarich said:
Spoke to my Barber earlier and she's really struggling. I've seen them grow to 3 shops over the last 10 years, but in the last 12 months she has closed two and only just about covering overheads with the remaining premises.

Seems to be a mixture of biz rates, utilities and also customers reducing frequency to as much as 8 week gaps.
For quite a few years wife and I have gone to a place that does men and women and they're in the process of closing their last branch. Variety of reasons but it's a biggish shop and the owner said getting staff, or even self-employed people to rent a chair, is increasingly difficult and he's losing money if there's only him and another hairdresser / barber in.

skwdenyer

16,535 posts

241 months

Tuesday 28th February 2023
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DSLiverpool said:
This is because of the huge amount of mainly Turkish Barbers that have proliferated over the last 2/3 years - one on every block by me.
Is their Turkishness a part of why you think they're out-competing the others?

magpie215

4,404 posts

190 months

Tuesday 28th February 2023
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Went into work today after a few days off.

Sales tickets out on a lot of the range and manager telling me we're nowhere near hitting targets.

Who knows which way things are going.