Gone very quiet
Discussion
Online retailer of home, garden, DIY type products. Selling to both budget conscious consumers and those who do not need to worry about the electricity bill.
Busier than ever, up year on year and way up on even peak COVID numbers.
Braced ourselves for a rough ride but also worked very hard from middle of last year to get our of the expensive stock from when shipping was crazy. No doubt inflicted some pain on our competitors who didn't react and now we're in a decent position that they will struggle to come back from without taking a big hit.
I think that's the crux of the problem for a lot of retailers at the moment, they are sitting on expensive overstock and they thought the buying party would never end.
Busier than ever, up year on year and way up on even peak COVID numbers.
Braced ourselves for a rough ride but also worked very hard from middle of last year to get our of the expensive stock from when shipping was crazy. No doubt inflicted some pain on our competitors who didn't react and now we're in a decent position that they will struggle to come back from without taking a big hit.
I think that's the crux of the problem for a lot of retailers at the moment, they are sitting on expensive overstock and they thought the buying party would never end.
Edited by FactoryBacked on Wednesday 12th April 21:43
FactoryBacked said:
I think that's the crux of the problem for a lot of retailers at the moment, they are sitting on expensive overstock and they thought the buying party would never end.
After lockdown ended it was impossible to buy anything, I struggled to buy a shed, a gaming laptop and a set of Garden furniture. As soon as somewhere had stock you had to buy it immediately as it would all be gone in a couple of days. After I got my gaming Laptop they were quoting delivery times of 12+ weeks. I assume that retailers ordered massive amounts of stock in advance due to this, and no doubt had to pay crazy shipping rates from China.
As you say I am sure retailers are going to have warehouses full of this sort of thing that they paid top money for just as demand starts to evaporate.
After FactoryBacked’s post I feel a little less self conscious about admitting that I’ve just had my 2nd busiest and joint 1st busiest days of the year, (including January Sales peak).
Week-on-week, month-on-month, ever since late February, I’ve been busy. Even my working class round is picking up nicely again.
It will be interesting to see how this pans out over June to August when I tend to have a bit of a lull.
My new concern, (as well as any impending crash to the economy), is how an almost inevitable invasion of Taiwan is going to affect things.
I’m certainly considering stocking up on serviceable items for my vans / cars and any electronics, (phone screens etc).
I suppose the question is, am I being paranoid or prudent?
Week-on-week, month-on-month, ever since late February, I’ve been busy. Even my working class round is picking up nicely again.
It will be interesting to see how this pans out over June to August when I tend to have a bit of a lull.
My new concern, (as well as any impending crash to the economy), is how an almost inevitable invasion of Taiwan is going to affect things.
I’m certainly considering stocking up on serviceable items for my vans / cars and any electronics, (phone screens etc).
I suppose the question is, am I being paranoid or prudent?
105.4 said:
After FactoryBacked’s post I feel a little less self conscious about admitting that I’ve just had my 2nd busiest and joint 1st busiest days of the year, (including January Sales peak).
Week-on-week, month-on-month, ever since late February, I’ve been busy. Even my working class round is picking up nicely again.
It will be interesting to see how this pans out over June to August when I tend to have a bit of a lull.
My new concern, (as well as any impending crash to the economy), is how an almost inevitable invasion of Taiwan is going to affect things.
I’m certainly considering stocking up on serviceable items for my vans / cars and any electronics, (phone screens etc).
I suppose the question is, am I being paranoid or prudent?
Paranoid.Week-on-week, month-on-month, ever since late February, I’ve been busy. Even my working class round is picking up nicely again.
It will be interesting to see how this pans out over June to August when I tend to have a bit of a lull.
My new concern, (as well as any impending crash to the economy), is how an almost inevitable invasion of Taiwan is going to affect things.
I’m certainly considering stocking up on serviceable items for my vans / cars and any electronics, (phone screens etc).
I suppose the question is, am I being paranoid or prudent?
With regards to 'busiest' days of the year - could this be due to the 2 Easter bank holidays? My postman said Tuesday was busy because of the "extra days off"
Phooey said:
With regards to 'busiest' days of the year - could this be due to the 2 Easter bank holidays? My postman said Tuesday was busy because of the "extra days off"
Certainly is for us - we dispatched 72 parcels on Tuesday, which seems a lot, but not when you actually factor that it's actually Friday, Monday and Tuesdays dispatch all in one go. FactoryBacked said:
Online retailer of home, garden, DIY type products. Selling to both budget conscious consumers and those who do not need to worry about the electricity bill.
Busier than ever, up year on year and way up on even peak COVID numbers.
Braced ourselves for a rough ride but also worked very hard from middle of last year to get our of the expensive stock from when shipping was crazy. No doubt inflicted some pain on our competitors who didn't react and now we're in a decent position that they will struggle to come back from without taking a big hit.
I think that's the crux of the problem for a lot of retailers at the moment, they are sitting on expensive overstock and they thought the buying party would never end.
That’s a coincidence, Busier than ever, up year on year and way up on even peak COVID numbers.
Braced ourselves for a rough ride but also worked very hard from middle of last year to get our of the expensive stock from when shipping was crazy. No doubt inflicted some pain on our competitors who didn't react and now we're in a decent position that they will struggle to come back from without taking a big hit.
I think that's the crux of the problem for a lot of retailers at the moment, they are sitting on expensive overstock and they thought the buying party would never end.
Edited by FactoryBacked on Wednesday 12th April 21:43
I’ve just been talking to an Agency about a very very similar business and scenario to yours. Do you use a North West marketing agency?
105.4 said:
After FactoryBacked’s post I feel a little less self conscious about admitting that I’ve just had my 2nd busiest and joint 1st busiest days of the year, (including January Sales peak).
Week-on-week, month-on-month, ever since late February, I’ve been busy. Even my working class round is picking up nicely again.
It will be interesting to see how this pans out over June to August when I tend to have a bit of a lull.
My new concern, (as well as any impending crash to the economy), is how an almost inevitable invasion of Taiwan is going to affect things.
I’m certainly considering stocking up on serviceable items for my vans / cars and any electronics, (phone screens etc).
I suppose the question is, am I being paranoid or prudent?
I hope this doesn't come across the wrong way but you've been worried about upcoming lulls on this thread for about 18 months now, has there been a period of more than a few days that have been much slower than expected?Week-on-week, month-on-month, ever since late February, I’ve been busy. Even my working class round is picking up nicely again.
It will be interesting to see how this pans out over June to August when I tend to have a bit of a lull.
My new concern, (as well as any impending crash to the economy), is how an almost inevitable invasion of Taiwan is going to affect things.
I’m certainly considering stocking up on serviceable items for my vans / cars and any electronics, (phone screens etc).
I suppose the question is, am I being paranoid or prudent?
I really don't understand the economy at the moment - industries seem to be crazy busy or depressingly quiet with nothing much inbetween.
MesoForm said:
I really don't understand the economy at the moment - industries seem to be crazy busy or depressingly quiet with nothing much inbetween.
It is probably important to realise that the economy is not directly a match for the media commentary (mainstream media and including this type of online media). All sorts of stories are reported in the media which can be isolated examples and not necessarily directly representative of reality.The reality about recent times is that it is not a recognisable pattern making it hard to predict what is about to happen... There are lots of examples of people who say 'I work in xxx industry' we are suffering therefore... where there may be no industry wide pattern.
All we know for now is that we can't accurately predict the near future - recent patterns are not indicative... Our customers are generally doing well in business, in the wider market we are still seeing a generally good position for companies...
MesoForm said:
I hope this doesn't come across the wrong way but you've been worried about upcoming lulls on this thread for about 18 months now, has there been a period of more than a few days that have been much slower than expected?
I really don't understand the economy at the moment - industries seem to be crazy busy or depressingly quiet with nothing much inbetween.
Of course it doesn’t come across as wrong, and thank you for asking I really don't understand the economy at the moment - industries seem to be crazy busy or depressingly quiet with nothing much inbetween.
Yes, I have been concerned, (as opposed to worried), about an upcoming and prolonged dip for quite some time. Probably since early 2022, shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine, (once it was announced that Russia had moved in large military hospitals to the border areas). I suspected that if that conflict dragged on, and if the West became heavily involved, then the effects would be wide reaching, which they have been, although we’re a hell of a lot better off than the poor sods in Ukraine !
All of our day-to-day costs have soared, whist many people’s income has remained stagnant. Everything, all data points, indicate a crash, but against my expectations, it hasn’t happened. To me that just defies logic.
There was a period of 4-5 weeks where things really dropped off a cliff from late January to late February. There was even one day when I had finished my rounds for 11:19, when I’ll usually be working until around 19:00 on an average day.
This quiet period was to be expected after Christmas and the January Sales. But it wasn’t just quiet, it was DEAD ! Then, just like flicking a switch, the taps turned on again and I was back to being steady, to moderately busy, to being very busy. I just can’t figure it out. I’d say that at least 80% of the stuff on my van is frivolous and unnecessary purchases. The sort of thing that families should be cutting back on hard…..but they’re not
I genuinely thought that things would fall off of a cliff permanently after Valentines Day, but they haven’t.It’s pointless me looking at a day, a week, a fortnight or maybe even a month in isolation, which is why I keep a really detailed spreadsheet and graphs of all of the work that I’ve done, so I can compare a street, a section, or a round against a day / week / month from the past.
I could take the next three to four months off of work and not have to worry about turning the lights on, so when there is a bit of a dip, I don’t immediately go into panic stations. To be honest, it would kind of be welcomed, especially now the days are getting longer, as I have 101 jobs to do at home, but never any bloody time to do them !
Phooey said:
Paranoid.
With regards to 'busiest' days of the year - could this be due to the 2 Easter bank holidays? My postman said Tuesday was busy because of the "extra days off"
Yes, Bank Holidays affect the job in two ways.With regards to 'busiest' days of the year - could this be due to the 2 Easter bank holidays? My postman said Tuesday was busy because of the "extra days off"
1) There’s been a day when parcels haven’t been going out, but they’ve still been working their way in through the system.
2) If people are at home as opposed to at work, they’re more likely to be buying stuff online.
I’d factored both of these points into my previous comment.
It’s not just the tiny snapshot of a couple of days that gives a glimmer of me being busy. When I look at my monthly numbers, and comparing them to last year, I’m busy. Busier overall than last year.
My benefits class area has remained stable.
My working class area has taken a small dip.
My middle class and millionaires row areas are both really, really strong.
loafer123 said:
What is interesting is that our website sales are doing OK, but Amazon is truly awful.
Better that than the other way around, I suppose!
I sell to Amazon as a Vendor. Latest offer of terms is - as usual - worse than a year ago: new slow-selling stock penalties (it is now *my* fault & cost of *they* buy too much stock); larger claw backs all over the place, and worse payment terms.Better that than the other way around, I suppose!
It is almost no longer worth supplying them. That would fit with lower sales across their platform.
loafer123 said:
What is interesting is that our website sales are doing OK, but Amazon is truly awful.
Better that than the other way around, I suppose!
Amazons Spring Sale was a total disaster, they are swimming in Alexa stuff and FBA was stuffed anticipating a Black Friday esq performance. It was crap. Better that than the other way around, I suppose!
Venisonpie said:
For those operating online sales businesses is there any sign of people returning to their office and thus finding home delivery not as convenient or has there been no change and/or impact?
I can’t answer your question fully, but what I can tell you is that at the depot I’m based at, we’re doing on average about 1/3 - 1/2 the weekly numbers that we’d have done during peak lockdown.I still have quite a decent number of customers who were previously office based who still work either wholly or partially from home.
105.4 said:
Venisonpie said:
For those operating online sales businesses is there any sign of people returning to their office and thus finding home delivery not as convenient or has there been no change and/or impact?
I can’t answer your question fully, but what I can tell you is that at the depot I’m based at, we’re doing on average about 1/3 - 1/2 the weekly numbers that we’d have done during peak lockdown.I still have quite a decent number of customers who were previously office based who still work either wholly or partially from home.
I assume that we should expect now to be an amalgam of pre / during lockdown?
akirk said:
How does that compare to pre-lockdown?
I assume that we should expect now to be an amalgam of pre / during lockdown?
I dont know for sure the exact numbers during lockdown, as I was doing something else for a living then. All I do know is that every single day was like the Christmas peak.I assume that we should expect now to be an amalgam of pre / during lockdown?
Even if I did know the figures, I don’t think it would go down very well for me to post them on a public forum.
Sorry.
105.4 said:
I can’t answer your question fully, but what I can tell you is that at the depot I’m based at, we’re doing on average about 1/3 - 1/2 the weekly numbers that we’d have done during peak lockdown.
I still have quite a decent number of customers who were previously office based who still work either wholly or partially from home.
This was always going to be the reality though.I still have quite a decent number of customers who were previously office based who still work either wholly or partially from home.
People during lock down were stuck at home bored just ordering stuff , now things are back to normal there spending there money elsewhere.
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