Gone very quiet
Discussion
Sheepshanks said:
loafer123 said:
Construction materials, for example, have spiked and may well be falling as projects are mothballed.
Was chatting to the boss of the firm doing our extension / refurb - it's a 15 man firm and they do build and maintenance in theory with separate arms but there's a lot of cross over of staff. He said up until recently he's been able to stay on top of things - our build was started in late Jan after he quoted in Nov 21 - but he said their backlog has gone completely bonkers and for builds he's looking at mid 23 starts now. However he said he's suddenly started getting lots of calls from subbies asking if he's got any work for them.
The smaller end (which is what I mostly focus on) is very quiet. I think your average person is now at panic stations.
I have started getting regular calls from agencies asking if we need any drivers which is a classic sign of things being quiet.
At this time of year its very unusual to have drivers just floating looking for work.
M3Jappa I am on the supply side of your trade.
You are right prices have gone through the roof.
Trying to stay ahead of the curve you have to take a big step forward with prices.
You are not only battling supplier costs but staffing costs are out of control too. You give the drivers 10% pay rise and 2 weeks later they are back saying they can get 10% more again down the road. The yard lads then get wind of whats going on and suddenly your lowest paid employee is on 25% more than they were 3 months ago. And the crazy thing is no one is any better off. As a business we cant react quick enough to this stuff.
Loss of red diesel prob costing us £10k a year too.
Then add in the public (we are trade and public) are slowing down on spending, so there is less money coming in. Much less. So sales volumes are down so profits are down - well there is no profit at the moment but you get the idea. Phones are 50% down on average at the moment.
This is just the start IMHO and by the end of the summer its going to be a mess.
We have been going 60+ years, honestly I think this might be our last year. I was convinced covid would wipe us out but we pushed through and survived that some how.
Last year was tough and I am not going through all this again life is too short!
You are right prices have gone through the roof.
Trying to stay ahead of the curve you have to take a big step forward with prices.
You are not only battling supplier costs but staffing costs are out of control too. You give the drivers 10% pay rise and 2 weeks later they are back saying they can get 10% more again down the road. The yard lads then get wind of whats going on and suddenly your lowest paid employee is on 25% more than they were 3 months ago. And the crazy thing is no one is any better off. As a business we cant react quick enough to this stuff.
Loss of red diesel prob costing us £10k a year too.
Then add in the public (we are trade and public) are slowing down on spending, so there is less money coming in. Much less. So sales volumes are down so profits are down - well there is no profit at the moment but you get the idea. Phones are 50% down on average at the moment.
This is just the start IMHO and by the end of the summer its going to be a mess.
We have been going 60+ years, honestly I think this might be our last year. I was convinced covid would wipe us out but we pushed through and survived that some how.
Last year was tough and I am not going through all this again life is too short!
105.4 said:
@Got2Pzero
That’s a very grim outlook.
Forgive me for saying so, but have you typed that under a dark cloud, or is your comment about 22/23 being your last year a truly honest assessment?
I’ve yet to see any evidence of wage increases, certainly not in the circles I orbit. Any talk about how the massive increases in fuel costs have essentially resulted in a significant pay cut, (I sub-contract), have been met with luke warm responses.
We always keep around 6-9 months in reserve. However with last year being a bad year that dropped to only 2-3 months at the start of this year. Then this year has been another terrible year so we are now operating week to week pretty much,That’s a very grim outlook.
Forgive me for saying so, but have you typed that under a dark cloud, or is your comment about 22/23 being your last year a truly honest assessment?
I’ve yet to see any evidence of wage increases, certainly not in the circles I orbit. Any talk about how the massive increases in fuel costs have essentially resulted in a significant pay cut, (I sub-contract), have been met with luke warm responses.
Edited by 105.4 on Monday 23 May 07:01
Added into that the standing costs to keep the doors open are up 30%. Our reserves are basically nil so I am keeping the place propped up financially in the hope of a recovery but I am only going to do that so long.
Wage increases for truck drivers have sky rocketed since the back end of last year. Its just one part of the problem though materials costs, fuel costs etc.
I dont want to sound like a cry baby, I have done alright. It would be nice to keep going but if we cant well we cant and I have come to realise the more you worry and stress the worse it gets.
m3jappa said:
You sound like a local supplier we use here. a small (compared to a national) family business? which to be fair to them has been excellent, swallowing as much as they can as they realise the relentless increases will cause zero sales.
My dig is more at a couple of local places putting aggregates costs up by large amounts - when they make the stuff themselves, blaming red diesel. I estimate one place is generating another 7k a week. I dont believe they are using an extra 7k of fuel.
It is the supply chain, i know that too. But what winds me up (im sure you'll be aware of this) is one national has kept putting prices up but then announces they have acquired another national company for over 500m. nice to know where some of those increases have gone.
All the best though, it could be a rough ride
Cheers mate, and yeah I get where you are coming from I was not having a go at you just venting I guess.My dig is more at a couple of local places putting aggregates costs up by large amounts - when they make the stuff themselves, blaming red diesel. I estimate one place is generating another 7k a week. I dont believe they are using an extra 7k of fuel.
It is the supply chain, i know that too. But what winds me up (im sure you'll be aware of this) is one national has kept putting prices up but then announces they have acquired another national company for over 500m. nice to know where some of those increases have gone.
All the best though, it could be a rough ride
There are people making a LOT of money at the moment. Big business basically.
The smaller guy is struggling IME.
Cheers, yep I think the next 2 years is going to get quite tasty for your 10 - 50 employee operator. They are not going to be agile enough to keep up and I can see a lot going under.
Loading is much more of a mare these days tbh. You have to have the right stuff in the right place, as above. Load security etc. DVSA are regularly stopping us and checking. Thats why they are not splitting packs much easier to do on site regards loading.
The one thing I tell my lads is spend 5 mins in the yard to get it right, because its much harder to try and sort out on site. We always try and get the drops on in rear to front order but its often not possible.
Another issue is despite the route being planned (which costs money) drivers often just ignore the plan. Which can cause issues with getting the load off as its all now in the wrong order...
So its not rocket science but you do have to stick to the rules. For example there are plenty of sites we go too that you cant get on the wagon. Try unloading an 8 wheeler flat bed with a hiab but you cant get on it.... its a right PITA.
The one thing I tell my lads is spend 5 mins in the yard to get it right, because its much harder to try and sort out on site. We always try and get the drops on in rear to front order but its often not possible.
Another issue is despite the route being planned (which costs money) drivers often just ignore the plan. Which can cause issues with getting the load off as its all now in the wrong order...
So its not rocket science but you do have to stick to the rules. For example there are plenty of sites we go too that you cant get on the wagon. Try unloading an 8 wheeler flat bed with a hiab but you cant get on it.... its a right PITA.
BEP said:
What really annoys me though are the media outlets talking us into a recession. The money is there but people are now sitting on it.
The way our retail is structured it should be fine this year but it’s come January I’m a little nervous of.
Yep we get this even with the weather. As soon as the DM etal put "major storm" on the top of the home page our phones stop ringing. Does not matter the storm is for Kent and Sussex and we are in Lancs!!!The way our retail is structured it should be fine this year but it’s come January I’m a little nervous of.
People are very fickle and it does not take much to rock the boat.
I used to think back in the day that the "fake news" was really just BS but now having seen how people react to stuff I can totally believe you could take down an economy for a time if you really wanted with a bit of work on Facebook etc esp once you get a bit of panic in the system.
105.4 said:
Which then begs the question why? Why have I seen the biggest reduction in custom in this one specific area?
IMHO, because people with money know A) how hard it is to manage a situation like this esp if you have a business rising costs on all fronts and decreasing sales is *really* bad.
B) have their ear to the ground so know just how bad some places are
C) are probably 50+ so remember hard times in the 70-90s.
I think the coming financial hit is going to be sharp and I think its going to hit everyone in some way or another.
The last major recession was quite specific in who it effected tbh in the UK and we got off quite lightly.
My gut feeling is the next 12-18 months we are going to be in trouble but then hopefully we come out the other side. The last thing we want is a prolonged period of financial hardship. That can lead to much, much bigger problems. Hopefully I am wrong and by the end of the summer its all back to normal..
Govt are clearly aware and apparently going to issue some sort of statement towards the end of this week.
We took paypal off our website a couple of months ago after they started restricting what we could withdraw. We found it very odd that once you have £5k (ish) in your account they wont let you take it out for a month, by which time you have even more money and you end up with paypal basically paying you back on 30 days which is total bs. We need cash flow so bye bye paypal.
105.4 said:
How’s everyone doing after the Bank Holiday weekend?
Very quiet for me and the rest of the guys I’ve spoken to in the Yard. Most of the guys seem to be down around 33-50% on what they would usually expect.
We are very, very quiet. Currently got 3 staff cleaning and doing general tidying up. Stuff we normally do before Christmas!Very quiet for me and the rest of the guys I’ve spoken to in the Yard. Most of the guys seem to be down around 33-50% on what they would usually expect.
We are down across the board, phone, web, cash and carry its all dead.
When the phone is ringing I am giving as much discount as I can to entice the customer but its not helping.
jonsp said:
gotoPzero said:
When the phone is ringing I am giving as much discount as I can to entice the customer but its not helping.
Are they going to another (presumably even cheaper) supplier or not buying whatever you sell from anyone?I guess when there are only a few customers there will be a big fight over those customers.
Normally at this time of year we are turning work away.
Could be. Its very hard to tell whats going on at the moment. I have started telling people if they get a cheaper price somewhere else to ring me back. That will hopefully give me a better idea.
The main issue at the moment is just call volumes are right down, today we have had 15 inbound calls. Thats literally what we would normally see between 8am and 9am let alone from 8am till 330pm!!
The main issue at the moment is just call volumes are right down, today we have had 15 inbound calls. Thats literally what we would normally see between 8am and 9am let alone from 8am till 330pm!!
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I don't think they are the types of call people would be happy to get a follow up call for.I appreciate there are times you would expect that, i,e buying a car, quoting for a kitchen or bathroom etc but this would be like if Amazon called you because you looked at a pair of wellies to see if you were still interested. IYSWIM.
skwdenyer said:
What's your take on it? What that suggests to me is that competition is tough, lots of people are piling into PPC (pushing PPC rates up and ROI down), and so some people want to try to get the organic scores up a bit in the belief that is going to be more cost-effective (or they're being just out-bid if their margins won't support big PPC / CPA rates).
Certainly what I see and hear is that conversion rates have gone down for many players, so they're going to be wanting more traffic to try to compensate if they can. There are only so many quick fixes for that: more PPC, SEO, affiliates, display, retargeting. List rental isn't necessarily a great move these days (although email does still convert very well IME). A lot of display these days is dominated by a mix of retargeting and affiliates, and in any case there's been so much competition in the affiliate channel recently that rates are up and position down unless you're prepared to put big CPAs in play or pay for tenancy.
Good for you if you're good at SEO! Do you mind me asking, what sectors do you specialise in and do you work in other languages? I'm looking for an SEO agency right now
FWIW our CTR for June so far is 16.1% and Con rate of 2.55%. (300 clicks)Certainly what I see and hear is that conversion rates have gone down for many players, so they're going to be wanting more traffic to try to compensate if they can. There are only so many quick fixes for that: more PPC, SEO, affiliates, display, retargeting. List rental isn't necessarily a great move these days (although email does still convert very well IME). A lot of display these days is dominated by a mix of retargeting and affiliates, and in any case there's been so much competition in the affiliate channel recently that rates are up and position down unless you're prepared to put big CPAs in play or pay for tenancy.
Good for you if you're good at SEO! Do you mind me asking, what sectors do you specialise in and do you work in other languages? I'm looking for an SEO agency right now
May was 15.67/2.27%. (1500)
April was 15.38/2.76% (1600)
March was 14.21/2.80% (1400)
2021
June (pro rata) 11.32/2.14 (1400)
May 10.39/1.69 (2300)
April 11.51/2.50 (4000)
March 10.71/2.91(3600)
So my view is that we are actually performing better, we have quite an improvement on click through rate (I try and optimise as much as I can all the time) and our conversion rate is up too.
BUT, actual clicks are down by a lot. At least half if not over half down.
That's the issue here.
Those that want to buy are buying. Just there are fewer people who are actually looking.
And FWIW 2021 was not actually that hot, our clicks average about 5000 a month normally. So May 22 with 1500 clicks is a disaster as it should be closer to 5000!!
We live in a very weird time. This could go nuclear, or it could just be a flash in the pan and over by the new year.
Who knows.
What I do know is people have had it ridiculously easy the last 15 years or so. We have a massive portion of working people under 40 who are used to wages and working conditions that are way, way above what we have historically had. (good I guess)
We have a whole raft of people who are 55-75 who have ridden the property boom and made crazy sums of money on the Buy To Let markets and had/have incredible pensions.
I fear those who are going to be hit hardest are folks 40-50 years old and those who are leaving school now.
I am in the first group. I think it could set us back 20 years TBH if its a really hard and long recession.
Who really knows though?
Who knows.
What I do know is people have had it ridiculously easy the last 15 years or so. We have a massive portion of working people under 40 who are used to wages and working conditions that are way, way above what we have historically had. (good I guess)
We have a whole raft of people who are 55-75 who have ridden the property boom and made crazy sums of money on the Buy To Let markets and had/have incredible pensions.
I fear those who are going to be hit hardest are folks 40-50 years old and those who are leaving school now.
I am in the first group. I think it could set us back 20 years TBH if its a really hard and long recession.
Who really knows though?
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