Gone very quiet

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Discussion

Earthdweller

13,596 posts

127 months

Sunday 12th June 2022
quotequote all
cluckcluck said:
Just like covid, seems people are winning or losing, not much in the middle.

I work in IT and the market is bonkers this year. Wages are rising seemingly every month and there is a lack of developers for the jobs on offer.

We’re I work we have 6 vacancies and for 6 months unable to fill them. Applicants are applying already having 2+ offers already. Some underwhelming candidates are asking a lot and seemingly getting it.


Juniors are easily getting 45k+, mids 65K+ and seniors hitting 100k+

However.. I see some cracks in that this can’t continue and investors and pension funds are apparently withdrawing from tech stocks.

I’m genuinely bemused by the IT sector over the last few years, particularly this year and am at a loss to what it’ll do. I do think if it declines, it could be fairly rapid.
I’m reading of a lot of IT job losses particularly in the US and also in Europe with even names like Tesla mentioned

PayPal just made over 300 redundant in Ireland

Has the bubble burst ?

https://www.businessinsider.com/layoffs-sweeping-t...

SirCarsAllot

104 posts

25 months

Sunday 12th June 2022
quotequote all
Earthdweller said:
cluckcluck said:
Just like covid, seems people are winning or losing, not much in the middle.

I work in IT and the market is bonkers this year. Wages are rising seemingly every month and there is a lack of developers for the jobs on offer.

We’re I work we have 6 vacancies and for 6 months unable to fill them. Applicants are applying already having 2+ offers already. Some underwhelming candidates are asking a lot and seemingly getting it.


Juniors are easily getting 45k+, mids 65K+ and seniors hitting 100k+

However.. I see some cracks in that this can’t continue and investors and pension funds are apparently withdrawing from tech stocks.

I’m genuinely bemused by the IT sector over the last few years, particularly this year and am at a loss to what it’ll do. I do think if it declines, it could be fairly rapid.
I’m reading of a lot of IT job losses particularly in the US and also in Europe with even names like Tesla mentioned

PayPal just made over 300 redundant in Ireland

Has the bubble burst ?

https://www.businessinsider.com/layoffs-sweeping-t...
Happening across the board for IT, get rid of the less capable so you can pay more to retain your best, stops the poaching thats been going on, push your best harder, another sign of markets crumbling.

wildoliver

8,789 posts

217 months

Sunday 12th June 2022
quotequote all
Earthdweller said:
cluckcluck said:
Just like covid, seems people are winning or losing, not much in the middle.

I work in IT and the market is bonkers this year. Wages are rising seemingly every month and there is a lack of developers for the jobs on offer.

We’re I work we have 6 vacancies and for 6 months unable to fill them. Applicants are applying already having 2+ offers already. Some underwhelming candidates are asking a lot and seemingly getting it.


Juniors are easily getting 45k+, mids 65K+ and seniors hitting 100k+

However.. I see some cracks in that this can’t continue and investors and pension funds are apparently withdrawing from tech stocks.

I’m genuinely bemused by the IT sector over the last few years, particularly this year and am at a loss to what it’ll do. I do think if it declines, it could be fairly rapid.
I’m reading of a lot of IT job losses particularly in the US and also in Europe with even names like Tesla mentioned

PayPal just made over 300 redundant in Ireland

Has the bubble burst ?

https://www.businessinsider.com/layoffs-sweeping-t...
Taking PayPal as a specific example they are starting to experience what happens when your captive audience (eBay) not only gets removed but the venue starts actively making your life hard. Couple that to the totally skewed "protection" they offer which doesn't protect anyone particularly well and ultimately always ends up trumped by credit card charge backs means people are leaving the platform in droves. I have been overjoyed to dump it. I dumped selling on eBay years ago and haven't had to deal with Paypal for quite a long time now.

gotoPzero

Original Poster:

17,266 posts

190 months

Sunday 12th June 2022
quotequote all
We took paypal off our website a couple of months ago after they started restricting what we could withdraw. We found it very odd that once you have £5k (ish) in your account they wont let you take it out for a month, by which time you have even more money and you end up with paypal basically paying you back on 30 days which is total bs. We need cash flow so bye bye paypal.


jammy-git

29,778 posts

213 months

Sunday 12th June 2022
quotequote all
The tech layoffs are just corporations laying off after missing shareholder projections and making redundancies at the first sign of a recession.

Flooble

5,565 posts

101 months

Sunday 12th June 2022
quotequote all
SirCarsAllot said:
Happening across the board for IT, get rid of the less capable so you can pay more to retain your best, stops the poaching thats been going on, push your best harder, another sign of markets crumbling.
There are an awful lot of less capable types in IT - it has no professional body and is more art than engineering, so someone can just say "I am a genius programmer in <fad xyz>" and unless you have someone who already knows <fad xyz> you probably won't be able to tell if they are telling the truth - or if fad xyz is actually a better way of doing things or not.

But the job losses mentioned are I think less evidence of IT itself and more that venture capital is going to be tighter as central banks stop throwing money at banks (apparently they have decided to do literal helicopter money straight to consumers now). When there was a wall of QE cash looking for a home, every stupid tech idea was in with a shout of being funded along with the idea of "buying market share" by losing money for years. Now it's actual investors with a lot of their own money, there's going to be a lot more due diligence and the big players who have burned cash for years are going to be asked to start showing some returns.

It's going to be really messy.

M1AGM

2,357 posts

33 months

Sunday 12th June 2022
quotequote all
Flooble said:
There are an awful lot of less capable types in IT - it has no professional body and is more art than engineering, so someone can just say "I am a genius programmer in <fad xyz>" and unless you have someone who already knows <fad xyz> you probably won't be able to tell if they are telling the truth - or if fad xyz is actually a better way of doing things or not.

But the job losses mentioned are I think less evidence of IT itself and more that venture capital is going to be tighter as central banks stop throwing money at banks (apparently they have decided to do literal helicopter money straight to consumers now). When there was a wall of QE cash looking for a home, every stupid tech idea was in with a shout of being funded along with the idea of "buying market share" by losing money for years. Now it's actual investors with a lot of their own money, there's going to be a lot more due diligence and the big players who have burned cash for years are going to be asked to start showing some returns.

It's going to be really messy.
For those of us that worked through and remember the dot com boom and bust it’s history repeating itself. Remember companies being valued based on page views lol.

skwdenyer

16,528 posts

241 months

Sunday 12th June 2022
quotequote all
M1AGM said:
Flooble said:
There are an awful lot of less capable types in IT - it has no professional body and is more art than engineering, so someone can just say "I am a genius programmer in <fad xyz>" and unless you have someone who already knows <fad xyz> you probably won't be able to tell if they are telling the truth - or if fad xyz is actually a better way of doing things or not.

But the job losses mentioned are I think less evidence of IT itself and more that venture capital is going to be tighter as central banks stop throwing money at banks (apparently they have decided to do literal helicopter money straight to consumers now). When there was a wall of QE cash looking for a home, every stupid tech idea was in with a shout of being funded along with the idea of "buying market share" by losing money for years. Now it's actual investors with a lot of their own money, there's going to be a lot more due diligence and the big players who have burned cash for years are going to be asked to start showing some returns.

It's going to be really messy.
For those of us that worked through and remember the dot com boom and bust it’s history repeating itself. Remember companies being valued based on page views lol.
Those were the days... business plans on the back of napkins scoring big investments from people desperate not to miss out. And then www.fkedcompany.com to chart the inevitable fall-out.

105.4

4,097 posts

72 months

Tuesday 14th June 2022
quotequote all
How’s everyone doing after the Bank Holiday weekend?

Very quiet for me and the rest of the guys I’ve spoken to in the Yard. Most of the guys seem to be down around 33-50% on what they would usually expect.

eltawater

3,114 posts

180 months

Tuesday 14th June 2022
quotequote all
Many people are recovering from school holiday spending biggrin

gotoPzero

Original Poster:

17,266 posts

190 months

Tuesday 14th June 2022
quotequote all
105.4 said:
How’s everyone doing after the Bank Holiday weekend?

Very quiet for me and the rest of the guys I’ve spoken to in the Yard. Most of the guys seem to be down around 33-50% on what they would usually expect.
We are very, very quiet. Currently got 3 staff cleaning and doing general tidying up. Stuff we normally do before Christmas!

We are down across the board, phone, web, cash and carry its all dead.

When the phone is ringing I am giving as much discount as I can to entice the customer but its not helping.

jonsp

816 posts

157 months

Tuesday 14th June 2022
quotequote all
gotoPzero said:
When the phone is ringing I am giving as much discount as I can to entice the customer but its not helping.
Are they going to another (presumably even cheaper) supplier or not buying whatever you sell from anyone?

singlecoil

33,695 posts

247 months

Tuesday 14th June 2022
quotequote all
Odd situation with me (bespoke kitchen maker). There's still some money being spent on kitchens, most of it in the commodity sector which I can't compete in. High end stuff there's still some business to be had but I've never had much access to that market. But one sale can mean 2-3 months work so I don't need many sales.

Nevertheless the future isn't looking good so I've decided to go back to my old line of work and set up a guitar making/repairing facility. I'm not expecting there to be much money in it so will still do the occasional kitchen just to cover the rent.

Dr Interceptor

7,800 posts

197 months

Tuesday 14th June 2022
quotequote all
jonsp said:
gotoPzero said:
When the phone is ringing I am giving as much discount as I can to entice the customer but its not helping.
Are they going to another (presumably even cheaper) supplier or not buying whatever you sell from anyone?
I'm finding similar - pulling as much margin as I dare out of the product to get a sale, but there is always someone else out there that will sell for less.

It doesn't help that we had massive price increases across the industry on 1st June, so those holding stock from before then will have an edge.


gotoPzero

Original Poster:

17,266 posts

190 months

Tuesday 14th June 2022
quotequote all
jonsp said:
gotoPzero said:
When the phone is ringing I am giving as much discount as I can to entice the customer but its not helping.
Are they going to another (presumably even cheaper) supplier or not buying whatever you sell from anyone?
Well given they don't call back I assume they will be getting it cheaper else where.

I guess when there are only a few customers there will be a big fight over those customers.

Normally at this time of year we are turning work away.

Frimley111R

15,677 posts

235 months

Tuesday 14th June 2022
quotequote all
gotoPzero said:
Well given they don't call back I assume they will be getting it cheaper else where.

I guess when there are only a few customers there will be a big fight over those customers.

Normally at this time of year we are turning work away.
What type of work?

gotoPzero

Original Poster:

17,266 posts

190 months

Tuesday 14th June 2022
quotequote all
Similar to builders merchant.

jammy-git

29,778 posts

213 months

Tuesday 14th June 2022
quotequote all
Could it be that some are phoning for a quote and then deciding against progressing due to the cost/supply problems at the mo?

gotoPzero

Original Poster:

17,266 posts

190 months

Tuesday 14th June 2022
quotequote all
Could be. Its very hard to tell whats going on at the moment. I have started telling people if they get a cheaper price somewhere else to ring me back. That will hopefully give me a better idea.

The main issue at the moment is just call volumes are right down, today we have had 15 inbound calls. Thats literally what we would normally see between 8am and 9am let alone from 8am till 330pm!!


105.4

4,097 posts

72 months

Tuesday 14th June 2022
quotequote all
gotoPzero said:
The main issue at the moment is just call volumes are right down, today we have had 15 inbound calls. Thats literally what we would normally see between 8am and 9am let alone from 8am till 330pm!!
I wonder how much of that decline is based on consumer confidence, and how much of it is based on folk struggling to keep the lights on?

If this is what it’s like now, then what on earth is it going to be like in November when fuel is over £2.00 per litre, food has gone up even more, interest rates have risen and the gas and electric needs to be on for longer?

If the latter, then I think the correct terminology is “fked” ? yikes