Gone very quiet

[skwdenyer]

DickP said:

skwdenyer said:

I suspect ECP have indeed changed their policies. Given what I've seen lately on parts I've needed, I'd say they've stopped trying to compete. GSF are often far, far cheaper, for instance, never mind the eBay sellers of (often very dubious quality) parts.

GSF belong to same parent company as ECP.

As the influencers say, I was today years old when I found that out

Very interesting market differentiation in that case, given the often large difference in price between them for the same parts.

[Redarress]

DickP said:

skwdenyer said:

I suspect ECP have indeed changed their policies. Given what I've seen lately on parts I've needed, I'd say they've stopped trying to compete. GSF are often far, far cheaper, for instance, never mind the eBay sellers of (often very dubious quality) parts.

GSF belong to same parent company as ECP.

GSF were sold on in late ‘23. Competition and Markets Authority mentioned that the parent group might be close to a monopoly owning both. So they undertook it sell GSF

[Digga]

Mr Whippy said:

Digga said:

Some of the present stasis is due to unclement weather - it is so wet it's stopped all manner of both business and leisure activities dead.

Another element though, IMHO, is the BoE base rate. I fear they are too fat, stupid, lazy, antifragile and disconnected to catch the falling blade of another downturn. Rates will remain high for longer than is economically rational.

The current inflation controls are akin to a boxer getting down to fighting weight by amputating a limb. There are never any green shoots after rate recessions.

But if USA can keep rates high, and get growth, and the UK can’t, and lowers rates, doesn’t GBP debt become worth less?
Then you need higher rates to interest investors in UK debt?

Ie, base rate can go down all it likes but while USA offers a higher return in USD you’re gonna take it.


And in 2005 we had a similar base rate and growth through into 2007, with rates even increasing a bit iirc.


Can we genuinely cut rates while everyone else isn’t?

China is easing and they’re clearly struggling.

Different countries and different times.

If we get no growth our debt is worthless anyway. Catch 22. The current UK economy is, in no way, where it was 2000-2007.

[DSLiverpool]

Digga said:

ifferent countries and different times.

If we get no growth our debt is worthless anyway. Catch 22. The current UK economy is, in no way, where it was 2000-2007.

You mean it’s worse going into the stshow? I get confused when it gets into so many influencing factors.

In 2008 I was confident we’d collectively get through it but different times and I see several further steps down ahead.

[Puzzles]

How much of the growth in gdp per capita was due to the internet/digital/computer efficiencies?

[Digga]

DSLiverpool said:

Digga said:

ifferent countries and different times.

If we get no growth our debt is worthless anyway. Catch 22. The current UK economy is, in no way, where it was 2000-2007.

You mean it’s worse going into the stshow? I get confused when it gets into so many influencing factors.

In 2008 I was confident we’d collectively get through it but different times and I see several further steps down ahead.

yes, my gut feeling is, things have a lot less potential for upside than post GFC. Small businesses, the engine room of any economy, especially the UK, is wrecked.

[skwdenyer]

Digga said:

DSLiverpool said:

Digga said:

ifferent countries and different times.

If we get no growth our debt is worthless anyway. Catch 22. The current UK economy is, in no way, where it was 2000-2007.

You mean it’s worse going into the stshow? I get confused when it gets into so many influencing factors.

In 2008 I was confident we’d collectively get through it but different times and I see several further steps down ahead.

yes, my gut feeling is, things have a lot less potential for upside than post GFC. Small businesses, the engine room of any economy, especially the UK, is wrecked.

The economy never recovered form 2008. Govt papered over the cracks.

[monkfish1]

skwdenyer said:

Digga said:

DSLiverpool said:

Digga said:

ifferent countries and different times.

If we get no growth our debt is worthless anyway. Catch 22. The current UK economy is, in no way, where it was 2000-2007.

You mean it’s worse going into the stshow? I get confused when it gets into so many influencing factors.

In 2008 I was confident we’d collectively get through it but different times and I see several further steps down ahead.

yes, my gut feeling is, things have a lot less potential for upside than post GFC. Small businesses, the engine room of any economy, especially the UK, is wrecked.

The economy never recovered form 2008. Govt papered over the cracks.

Doing business as a small business, and actually making money is much, much more difficult now than it ever was post 2008.

By many orders of magnitude.

[Digga]

monkfish1 said:

Doing business as a small business, and actually making money is much, much more difficult now than it ever was post 2008.

By many orders of magnitude.

I agree totally. It doesn’t matter the industry or sector, the magnitude of bureaucracy has crushed SMEs. Just take road haulage as an example.

There is far, far less reward for risk now. Every perk thrown to workers in each budget has come at some sort of cost to the employer. Every pension change administered by them.

Business rates though, are what’s killing the smallest firms. That and parking, or lack of, for high street ventures. The mad thing with rates, big firms have the muscle to get deals when, in fact, rates should be tiered to favour businesses generation, not helping MNCs.

[surveyor]

Digga said:

monkfish1 said:

Doing business as a small business, and actually making money is much, much more difficult now than it ever was post 2008.

By many orders of magnitude.

I agree totally. It doesn’t matter the industry or sector, the magnitude of bureaucracy has crushed SMEs. Just take road haulage as an example.

There is far, far less reward for risk now. Every perk thrown to workers in each budget has come at some sort of cost to the employer. Every pension change administered by them.

Business rates though, are what’s killing the smallest firms. That and parking, or lack of, for high street ventures. The mad thing with rates, big firms have the muscle to get deals when, in fact, rates should be tiered to favour businesses generation, not helping MNCs.

Less convinced that business rates are the problem. So many discount schemes for the most challenged industries

[Puzzles]

Yes bureaucracy has gotten much worse for us and the risks are higher, don’t do it right and the fines are eye watering.

We didn’t realise how good we had it etc etc.

It feels like a different world.

[monkfish1]

surveyor said:

Digga said:

monkfish1 said:

Doing business as a small business, and actually making money is much, much more difficult now than it ever was post 2008.

By many orders of magnitude.

I agree totally. It doesn’t matter the industry or sector, the magnitude of bureaucracy has crushed SMEs. Just take road haulage as an example.

There is far, far less reward for risk now. Every perk thrown to workers in each budget has come at some sort of cost to the employer. Every pension change administered by them.

Business rates though, are what’s killing the smallest firms. That and parking, or lack of, for high street ventures. The mad thing with rates, big firms have the muscle to get deals when, in fact, rates should be tiered to favour businesses generation, not helping MNCs.

Less convinced that business rates are the problem. So many discount schemes for the most challenged industries

Fo me the reasons are wide ranging. Its literally from every possible angle. Not only is it much more difficult, its clearly been angled in favour of large businesses.

It makes very little sense to run a small business now.

And then to cap it off, if you sell it, because, heaven forbid, you have managed to do well, they will have another 40% of the proceees, rather than 10% as was. Thus killing any long term incentive completely.

Go PAYE

[DSLiverpool]

Puzzles said:

Yes bureaucracy has gotten much worse for us and the risks are higher, don’t do it right and the fines are eye watering.

We didn’t realise how good we had it etc etc.

It feels like a different world.

Wait till Labour get in and realise they can’t fund their promises with a few tax tweaks.

[urquattroGus]

One of the frustrating things for me is the assertion from a number of angles that ALL businesses are Evil and Greedy and we are all just on the take and wanting to rip off staff.

Maybe some big business and big tech are Evil and Greedy, but many of us are just SME businesses trying to make a living and want to do the right thing and keep people in employment and look after employees.

As others have said, there really isn't much more that SME's can give now, especially without getting further into an inflationary cycle.

The constant legislation to make business do the right thing often seems to mean that the responsible people pay for those who are not, eg the Pension PPE Levy, Apprenticeship Levy, FCA Levy, etc etc

[Portia5]

monkfish1 said:

Doing business as a small business, and actually making money is much, much more difficult now than it ever was post 2008.

By many orders of magnitude.

Don't agree at all. It's definitely different, but not "many orders of magnitude" more difficult. In fact, in some spheres of activity it's easier.

[Digga]

Portia5 said:

monkfish1 said:

Doing business as a small business, and actually making money is much, much more difficult now than it ever was post 2008.

By many orders of magnitude.

Don't agree at all. It's definitely different, but not "many orders of magnitude" more difficult. In fact, in some spheres of activity it's easier.

It really is, in many sectors.
Sure, some are easier, but just look at the SME attrition rate in many business categories, it’s above levels seen in the GFC.

[Portia5]

Digga said:

It really is, in many sectors.
Sure, some are easier, but just look at the SME attrition rate in many business categories, it’s above levels seen in the GFC.

'Many' is less than 'all' and may also be less than 'most'.

There are SOME categories that no-one can profit from anymore, but that's nothing new. They've run their cycle. They're done.

There are MANY that some people can't profit from anymore (btl for example) but their exit creates a void which is very quickly filled by others who CAN make profit, and indeed benefit even more if the void created by exiters isn't matched by incoming replacements.

There are many reasons for higher attrition rates, failure to adapt to changing conditions probably being primary, closely followed by unwillingness or inability to apply evolving technology, the main selling point of which is usually 'increased profitability'. Outdated business plans are probably another very big contributor to profit drop or total failure too.

Edited by Portia5 on Sunday 7th April 15:39

[monkfish1]

Portia5 said:

monkfish1 said:

Doing business as a small business, and actually making money is much, much more difficult now than it ever was post 2008.

By many orders of magnitude.

Don't agree at all. It's definitely different, but not "many orders of magnitude" more difficult. In fact, in some spheres of activity it's easier.

I can only speak as i find as someone who has run three businesses and sold one over the last 20 years.. Im sure, some sector, somewhere is having an easy time of it. Love to know what that is.

Of course, i could just be st at it.

[Portia5]

monkfish1 said:

I can only speak as i find as someone who has run three businesses and sold one over the last 20 years.. Im sure, some sector, somewhere is having an easy time of it. Love to know what that is.

Of course, i could just be st at it.

Do you have any idea how easy it is to make more profit than ever before from
1) let property both residential and commercial (because of massive demand v supply)? or
2) private hire taxis (because massive reduction in staff costs now replaced by technology)? or
3) manufacture of a product with never-reducing demand and zero local competing producers?

Is 3 enough?

O and unless you're going to chuck it, or get content with a reducing profit, you aren't going to have any choice other than asking yourself how you could do better, are you?

Edited by Portia5 on Sunday 7th April 16:49

[monkfish1]

Portia5 said:

monkfish1 said:

I can only speak as i find as someone who has run three businesses and sold one over the last 20 years.. Im sure, some sector, somewhere is having an easy time of it. Love to know what that is.

Of course, i could just be st at it.

Do you have any idea how easy it is to make more profit than ever before from
1) let property both residential and commercial (because of massive demand v supply)? or
2) private hire taxis (because massive reduction in staff costs now replaced by technology)? or
3) manufacture of a product with never-reducing demand and zero local competing producers?

Is 3 enough?

Wonderful. Im not in those sectors. Well, i did have a BTL, but that was turning into a hiding to nothing. So i bailed.

Still doesnt change that the tax at the point you choose to exit is now punitive. Which would be the single biggest reason i would never start another business. Because at some point, you will need to exit, for whatever reason.

The messages from government to me have been VERY clear. I have responded accordingly, because, im happy to admit, i cant "win" against the government. You might want to call that defeatist, i call it realisim. The signals from the next government dont look disimilar.

Edited by monkfish1 on Sunday 7th April 16:51