Gone very quiet
Discussion
r3g said:
gotoPzero said:
Not easily and honestly its not really worth a great deal. Owner operated makes it worth less. Plus we have a lot of competition and the last few years profits have been way down.
Seems that you know the answer already, GTPZ. Retire now with your head held high and some money in your pocket, or keep throwing money into the fire and come away with nothing and potentially a load of debt.r3g said:
gotoPzero said:
Not easily and honestly its not really worth a great deal. Owner operated makes it worth less. Plus we have a lot of competition and the last few years profits have been way down.
Seems that you know the answer already, GTPZ. Retire now with your head held high and some money in your pocket, or keep throwing money into the fire and come away with nothing and potentially a load of debt.Or, as said, no shame in retiring
gotoPzero said:
The real looming problem, IMHO, is this winter. If people are cutting back now and just buying on payday then what happens in December? (FWIW we are seeing similar, busy for a few days around the end / start of the month the v quiet the rest of the month)
We have always operated with a reasonable buffer but the last 3-4 months have eroded that to the point where when we get into the winter we wont have that buffer built back up again. I would say in years gone by we would have been able to survive 1-2 years if a major recession. However COVID has caused this to be reduced to pretty much nil as we lost the best part of 2 years of trade.
We are now left with a choice, pump more money in - which we are never likely to see back or call it a day now and retire a bit earlier than planned.
The standing costs of the business are around £20k a month, so its a case of find £100k+ personally to get us to March next year in the hope we might make that back next summer or call it a day now and not take that risk.
Its not how I wanted to end things but frankly I don't think that's a gamble I am willing to take.
We are in a similar predicament, luckily the years prior were good and it allowed us to build up a good buffer however like most industries sales are not what they were and there is no sign of them getting better, we specialise in higher value products too which are not a necessity so people are now pulling back. We could go in to 2023 but then I feel it would need a cash injection unless there was a big uplift in sales (unlikely) or withdraw what we have and walk away. Fortunately we have few overheads and no staff so we can move the money on to other projects we have on the go.We have always operated with a reasonable buffer but the last 3-4 months have eroded that to the point where when we get into the winter we wont have that buffer built back up again. I would say in years gone by we would have been able to survive 1-2 years if a major recession. However COVID has caused this to be reduced to pretty much nil as we lost the best part of 2 years of trade.
We are now left with a choice, pump more money in - which we are never likely to see back or call it a day now and retire a bit earlier than planned.
The standing costs of the business are around £20k a month, so its a case of find £100k+ personally to get us to March next year in the hope we might make that back next summer or call it a day now and not take that risk.
Its not how I wanted to end things but frankly I don't think that's a gamble I am willing to take.
We were also lucky with the property market and made more than planned which has give us a lump sum (selling a couple of BTL), we will be reinvesting back in to the property market with the proceeds.
I feel quite lucky we can do this but I have friends in a similar predicament who have various company cars/vans, bigger units, staff etc and IMO they wont see it through and there savings are disappearing quickly. Sad times.
We will take a step back from running a business for a few years until things settle down, in the mean time we will aim to supplement our income with some property investments which to be honest have always been our most lucrative projects (and the less stress!), after working day after day with very very little holidays since 2012 I am looking forward to taking a step back and getting some pressure off my shoulders!
Just having a look at our first two quarters in Motorsport retail and there’s become a definite pattern.
For the last three years we were busy across each month with a dip during the summer. What I’ve seen this year is sales spike last week / first week of each month which coincides with payday fir lots of people.
April was an utter disaster as it seems it was for so many, however May/ June have been ok.
I think it’s showing people are now only buying just about what they can afford rather than the scatter gun approach we e seen for 2-3 years.
We always felt Motorsport would start to see money related issues once grants / furlough had been spent , I just didn’t think it would be an economy wide issue.
For the last three years we were busy across each month with a dip during the summer. What I’ve seen this year is sales spike last week / first week of each month which coincides with payday fir lots of people.
April was an utter disaster as it seems it was for so many, however May/ June have been ok.
I think it’s showing people are now only buying just about what they can afford rather than the scatter gun approach we e seen for 2-3 years.
We always felt Motorsport would start to see money related issues once grants / furlough had been spent , I just didn’t think it would be an economy wide issue.
coyft said:
Demand for commercial property still seems very strong, which seems at odds with the economic outlook.
May I ask what part of the country are you referring to, and what types of commercial properties?Around here High Street type properties are going for next to nowt, (if they’re going at all !).
The smaller 2500-3000sq/ft light industrial still seem to be getting snapped up quickly though.
DSLiverpool said:
Just been in TGI Fridays Cheshire Oakes - 6pm it was 75% full. Had a deal on 2 courses £18
Yet I've recently had the pick of the single private dining room for Friday nights in June/July at a local Michelin star place. Just getting any old table has been rather tough the last few years.Bicester village is like a ghost town today, apparently.
It seems that people are cutting back in very specific ways. They still want to go on holiday, still want to eat out. But will economise slightly in those and in other areas like clothes, cut back completely. That's my feeling anyhow.
105.4 said:
May I ask what part of the country are you referring to, and what types of commercial properties?
Around here High Street type properties are going for next to nowt, (if they’re going at all !).
The smaller 2500-3000sq/ft light industrial still seem to be getting snapped up quickly though.
I’m in the East of England and yes I meant light industrial units, not the high street! I wonder if some of the demand is driven by companies moving to a just in case type model rather than just in time, hence needing more storage.Around here High Street type properties are going for next to nowt, (if they’re going at all !).
The smaller 2500-3000sq/ft light industrial still seem to be getting snapped up quickly though.
coyft said:
I’m in the East of England and yes I meant light industrial units, not the high street! I wonder if some of the demand is driven by companies moving to a just in case type model rather than just in time, hence needing more storage.
Good point actually.I’ve been only window shopping with a modest amount of intent, so haven’t bothered chasing up any units I’ve missed out on to see who’s in there.
I’ll endeavour to try that tack and report back.
C722 said:
Hospitality seems flat out! The people of Bristol certainly aren’t feeling the pinch yet in bars and restaurants around here.
I was in Bristol the other week and we found it hard to find a restaurant with free tables for dinner.The brewery we went to was heaving as well.
It was good to see people out in such numbers.
JCKST1 said:
gotoPzero said:
The real looming problem, IMHO, is this winter. If people are cutting back now and just buying on payday then what happens in December? (FWIW we are seeing similar, busy for a few days around the end / start of the month the v quiet the rest of the month)
We have always operated with a reasonable buffer but the last 3-4 months have eroded that to the point where when we get into the winter we wont have that buffer built back up again. I would say in years gone by we would have been able to survive 1-2 years if a major recession. However COVID has caused this to be reduced to pretty much nil as we lost the best part of 2 years of trade.
We are now left with a choice, pump more money in - which we are never likely to see back or call it a day now and retire a bit earlier than planned.
The standing costs of the business are around £20k a month, so its a case of find £100k+ personally to get us to March next year in the hope we might make that back next summer or call it a day now and not take that risk.
Its not how I wanted to end things but frankly I don't think that's a gamble I am willing to take.
We are in a similar predicament, luckily the years prior were good and it allowed us to build up a good buffer however like most industries sales are not what they were and there is no sign of them getting better, we specialise in higher value products too which are not a necessity so people are now pulling back. We could go in to 2023 but then I feel it would need a cash injection unless there was a big uplift in sales (unlikely) or withdraw what we have and walk away. Fortunately we have few overheads and no staff so we can move the money on to other projects we have on the go.We have always operated with a reasonable buffer but the last 3-4 months have eroded that to the point where when we get into the winter we wont have that buffer built back up again. I would say in years gone by we would have been able to survive 1-2 years if a major recession. However COVID has caused this to be reduced to pretty much nil as we lost the best part of 2 years of trade.
We are now left with a choice, pump more money in - which we are never likely to see back or call it a day now and retire a bit earlier than planned.
The standing costs of the business are around £20k a month, so its a case of find £100k+ personally to get us to March next year in the hope we might make that back next summer or call it a day now and not take that risk.
Its not how I wanted to end things but frankly I don't think that's a gamble I am willing to take.
We were also lucky with the property market and made more than planned which has give us a lump sum (selling a couple of BTL), we will be reinvesting back in to the property market with the proceeds.
I feel quite lucky we can do this but I have friends in a similar predicament who have various company cars/vans, bigger units, staff etc and IMO they wont see it through and there savings are disappearing quickly. Sad times.
We will take a step back from running a business for a few years until things settle down, in the mean time we will aim to supplement our income with some property investments which to be honest have always been our most lucrative projects (and the less stress!), after working day after day with very very little holidays since 2012 I am looking forward to taking a step back and getting some pressure off my shoulders!
I am sure I could sell the business for small lump sum and it can be built back up fairly swiftlyby someone new, I just don't have the energy. Maybe I am burnt out, maybe I just don't want to, maybe I want a fresh start. I can't quite put my finger on it but having pondered for over 18 months now its probably time to take a direction and move in it sharpish.
I wonder if its the directors and business owners that can see a little further than the employed workers who just think the party will keep going and the government will just bail them out again as in Covid.
PH does have a fair number of directors (obviously powerfully built and stair dominating!) and are we ahead of the curve slightly?
PH does have a fair number of directors (obviously powerfully built and stair dominating!) and are we ahead of the curve slightly?
Indeed, while you get some business owners who just act reactively to everything, almost by definition the type of person who starts a business usually does so because they can see an opportunity, so almost by definition they are more long-sighted than the average.
And if your business is of any scale, or even if it isn't, you have to be able to plan, budget and forecast. Even the local ice cream van needs to look at the weather forecast to know whether to order extra lollies or leave the van at home.
Plus, worth remembering that as a business owner you "see" everything. Sales staff may notice the pipeline is empty, but won't necessarily see that the production operatives are also just doing maintenance tasks or building for stock. Similarly the delivery staff may notice they aren't as busy, but won't necessarily connect the dots. The business owner is the one who can see that marketing are getting no responses, sales have nothing in the pipeline, production are doing make-work, nobody has bought anything for months and those who did have defaulted on their debts.
And if your business is of any scale, or even if it isn't, you have to be able to plan, budget and forecast. Even the local ice cream van needs to look at the weather forecast to know whether to order extra lollies or leave the van at home.
Plus, worth remembering that as a business owner you "see" everything. Sales staff may notice the pipeline is empty, but won't necessarily see that the production operatives are also just doing maintenance tasks or building for stock. Similarly the delivery staff may notice they aren't as busy, but won't necessarily connect the dots. The business owner is the one who can see that marketing are getting no responses, sales have nothing in the pipeline, production are doing make-work, nobody has bought anything for months and those who did have defaulted on their debts.
Also, depending on what business you run you might get the opportunity to see how other businesses are doing across quite a range of different sectors. For instance I run a digital agency and often speak with other digital agency owners. Not only do I get to hear about how those agencies are doing, but also how their clients are doing operating in a very wide range of different markets, and businesses of all different sizes too.
Most reported a very quiet March, April, May, but a slight uptick in business in the last 4-6 weeks (same as what we've seen). How long this slight uptick in business goes on for is anyone's guess.
Most reported a very quiet March, April, May, but a slight uptick in business in the last 4-6 weeks (same as what we've seen). How long this slight uptick in business goes on for is anyone's guess.
jammy-git said:
Also, depending on what business you run you might get the opportunity to see how other businesses are doing across quite a range of different sectors. For instance I run a digital agency and often speak with other digital agency owners. Not only do I get to hear about how those agencies are doing, but also how their clients are doing operating in a very wide range of different markets, and businesses of all different sizes too.
Most reported a very quiet March, April, May, but a slight uptick in business in the last 4-6 weeks (same as what we've seen). How long this slight uptick in business goes on for is anyone's guess.
As an accountant, I'd say it's very mixed. Much of our client base is manufacturing and are likely to see a slowdown later on than retail etc.Most reported a very quiet March, April, May, but a slight uptick in business in the last 4-6 weeks (same as what we've seen). How long this slight uptick in business goes on for is anyone's guess.
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