Gone very quiet
Discussion
Chamon_Lee said:
It is actually nice to read these various perspectives as I find myself in a similar situation. Having worked my tail off since 2011 on a non stop grind I find myself pondering what to do with the next 10 years. Covid really hit us hard and with that it completely and utterly destroyed my motivation to build it back up after various attempts but external issues getting in the way. I find myself questioning if its even worth doing or is it better to just let it go and have a fresh start in anything else. I am very fortunate that I have no debt, have surplus cash and keep minimal overheads.
I am sure I could sell the business for small lump sum and it can be built back up fairly swiftlyby someone new, I just don't have the energy. Maybe I am burnt out, maybe I just don't want to, maybe I want a fresh start. I can't quite put my finger on it but having pondered for over 18 months now its probably time to take a direction and move in it sharpish.
You are in a very very similar predicament to me however we had a very busy covid boom, I knew this was a temp blip and maintained my overheads when competitors were taking on staff, moving units, showing off their new company vans etc, all of which are struggling now.I am sure I could sell the business for small lump sum and it can be built back up fairly swiftlyby someone new, I just don't have the energy. Maybe I am burnt out, maybe I just don't want to, maybe I want a fresh start. I can't quite put my finger on it but having pondered for over 18 months now its probably time to take a direction and move in it sharpish.
We used the extra profits to increase our dividends and clear all our personal debt, we have nothing on finance, credit card etc and luckily all most all of our mortgage and usual bills are covered by rental income on other properties so I am very fortunate to have this opportunity.
Its something I have been toying with for a while and I think unless this dip in the market happened I would have plodded on year after year so in some ways its a blessing in disguise and like yourself I am struggling to even get the motivation to see me through the coming months, having dealt with customers and the usual retail issues daily I just cant bring my self to care any more!
I did consider selling and spoke to some brokers but being realistic looking at the coming months and years it would be hard to find a buyer, it might take 6/12/18 months of me keeping up the numbers (or trying) and in reality its not going to be a life changing amount. I will keep in contact with some suppliers for possible deals later down the line but I wont be working in a sense.
For most people its going to be now or never and I think if you are in a position to do it and have a similar mindset to me then take the jump. Maybe it wont work out and I will want to get back to it or maybe it will be the best thing I have done, I am sure the latter after 10 years of pressure!
r3g said:
Any used car sales people here? How's things for you?
I met up with some friends over the weekend and 2 of them are salesmen for Ford ad VW main dealers respectively. Got talking about the state of the economy as you do, and both reported that since early May the market has basically evaporated, particularly for used stuff. Phones were ringing off the hook in the months prior as the brand new order lead times are so long, and so they were selling used cars at inflated prices before they'd even prepped them and listed them on their website. But since then the buyers have just vanished and the phone hardly rings now.
Both now having to make big cuts to their prices, 15-20%, to get even a slight interest and even that's not enough. The market is crashing hard as it seems people are tightening their belts and not spending.
And yet ... https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/used-car-s...I met up with some friends over the weekend and 2 of them are salesmen for Ford ad VW main dealers respectively. Got talking about the state of the economy as you do, and both reported that since early May the market has basically evaporated, particularly for used stuff. Phones were ringing off the hook in the months prior as the brand new order lead times are so long, and so they were selling used cars at inflated prices before they'd even prepped them and listed them on their website. But since then the buyers have just vanished and the phone hardly rings now.
Both now having to make big cuts to their prices, 15-20%, to get even a slight interest and even that's not enough. The market is crashing hard as it seems people are tightening their belts and not spending.
Frimley111R said:
r3g said:
Any used car sales people here? How's things for you?
I met up with some friends over the weekend and 2 of them are salesmen for Ford ad VW main dealers respectively. Got talking about the state of the economy as you do, and both reported that since early May the market has basically evaporated, particularly for used stuff. Phones were ringing off the hook in the months prior as the brand new order lead times are so long, and so they were selling used cars at inflated prices before they'd even prepped them and listed them on their website. But since then the buyers have just vanished and the phone hardly rings now.
Both now having to make big cuts to their prices, 15-20%, to get even a slight interest and even that's not enough. The market is crashing hard as it seems people are tightening their belts and not spending.
And yet ... https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/used-car-s...I met up with some friends over the weekend and 2 of them are salesmen for Ford ad VW main dealers respectively. Got talking about the state of the economy as you do, and both reported that since early May the market has basically evaporated, particularly for used stuff. Phones were ringing off the hook in the months prior as the brand new order lead times are so long, and so they were selling used cars at inflated prices before they'd even prepped them and listed them on their website. But since then the buyers have just vanished and the phone hardly rings now.
Both now having to make big cuts to their prices, 15-20%, to get even a slight interest and even that's not enough. The market is crashing hard as it seems people are tightening their belts and not spending.
Frimley111R said:
Which shows (a) volume up but revenue up more slowly, ie on average a lower price per vehicle; and (b) still markedly down on March.Frimley111R said:
I wonder how much of that is due to people changing to more economic motors?Still dead as a dodo for me, I'm giving it until the end of the year and then it will be back to employment (hard after 20 years!) or somethong new (deffo NOT online again, unless the Google monopoly to broken).
s
tty times 
If thats where you are then just remember if you leave it till the last minute its possible a lot of other people might be doing the same things. Thats not said to teach you to suck eggs as I am also in the same position and I have come to the conclusion its better to get out now than in 6 months.....
I work for a posh garden maintenance company. Nice houses with decently wealthy customers including some FTSE big wigs and similar. I'm like a personal concierge service at HQ so often chat to customers although "how's business?" might not present me with audited or sanctioned responses 
Bits of info from polite chitchat rather than a full picture.
A few from the top of my head....
Owner of chain of hotels. 2022 a really good year for weddings etc (still covid backlog), but bookings for next year very thin on the ground as people get "nervous" - way down on what they'd expect to have in the diary by now.
Founding director of global travel brand. Multi £billion swing in covid, but incredible demand at the moment. I think I saw somewhere else (poss this thread) people seemingly happy to have a holiday and save elsewhere.
Owner of chain of insurance brokers (not a household name). Just sold to a venture capital company and seems to think he's dodged a bullet - although not sure where he thinks struggles lie ahead.
Owner of chain of old people's homes. Just put all suppliers (thankfully not us) on 90 day terms - maybe just big enough to call the shots.
Director at mobile network. Thinks people will start to resist the "inflation PLUS 3.7%" etc increases although then adds he doubts there will be cracking deals elsewhere.
Probably not that useful
Bits of info from polite chitchat rather than a full picture. A few from the top of my head....
Owner of chain of hotels. 2022 a really good year for weddings etc (still covid backlog), but bookings for next year very thin on the ground as people get "nervous" - way down on what they'd expect to have in the diary by now.
Founding director of global travel brand. Multi £billion swing in covid, but incredible demand at the moment. I think I saw somewhere else (poss this thread) people seemingly happy to have a holiday and save elsewhere.
Owner of chain of insurance brokers (not a household name). Just sold to a venture capital company and seems to think he's dodged a bullet - although not sure where he thinks struggles lie ahead.
Owner of chain of old people's homes. Just put all suppliers (thankfully not us) on 90 day terms - maybe just big enough to call the shots.
Director at mobile network. Thinks people will start to resist the "inflation PLUS 3.7%" etc increases although then adds he doubts there will be cracking deals elsewhere.
Probably not that useful
POORCARDEALER said:
Frimley111R said:
r3g said:
Any used car sales people here? How's things for you?
I met up with some friends over the weekend and 2 of them are salesmen for Ford ad VW main dealers respectively. Got talking about the state of the economy as you do, and both reported that since early May the market has basically evaporated, particularly for used stuff. Phones were ringing off the hook in the months prior as the brand new order lead times are so long, and so they were selling used cars at inflated prices before they'd even prepped them and listed them on their website. But since then the buyers have just vanished and the phone hardly rings now.
Both now having to make big cuts to their prices, 15-20%, to get even a slight interest and even that's not enough. The market is crashing hard as it seems people are tightening their belts and not spending.
And yet ... https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/used-car-s...I met up with some friends over the weekend and 2 of them are salesmen for Ford ad VW main dealers respectively. Got talking about the state of the economy as you do, and both reported that since early May the market has basically evaporated, particularly for used stuff. Phones were ringing off the hook in the months prior as the brand new order lead times are so long, and so they were selling used cars at inflated prices before they'd even prepped them and listed them on their website. But since then the buyers have just vanished and the phone hardly rings now.
Both now having to make big cuts to their prices, 15-20%, to get even a slight interest and even that's not enough. The market is crashing hard as it seems people are tightening their belts and not spending.
There seem to be 2 market forces pulling in different directions - 1. the parts/supply chain shortages for new-builds causing impatient people with money in their pocket/credit lines available to plunk for nearly-new stuff on the second hand market, hence inflating the prices and demand, and 2. the rapid rise in living costs/fears of deep recession causing "average" people to sit tight and see how things pan out in the economy before shelling out £5-10k to upgrade their 10 year old Focus. I also think the pool of "average" people who have thousands sitting in the bank to actually fund it outright is likely to be quite small, and with credit having become more expensive recently with stricter lending criteria, that is only going to add to the market weakness.
gotoPzero said:
If thats where you are then just remember if you leave it till the last minute its possible a lot of other people might be doing the same things. Thats not said to teach you to suck eggs as I am also in the same position and I have come to the conclusion its better to get out now than in 6 months.....
You have decided to sell now? That was quick! 
r3g said:
It's quite interesting. Further to my earlier post, I was out with my mate yesterday as he was going around the local dealers getting prices for his car. A couple of main dealers and the rest were indy's. There was a consistent theme of 1-2.5 year old cars were selling fast at strong premiums, presumably due to the long lead times on new-builds, and the £1-2k snotter market was also very strong with them selling like hot cakes and several dealers saying if they could get decent stock they could easily sell 10-20 cars a day at this price range. But the market for everything in between, ie. £2k to around 2 years old, is very weak. A bit of a different story from the 2 old friends of mine, but they are from Derby and Bristol respectively so the markets could be different in other parts of the country.
There seem to be 2 market forces pulling in different directions - 1. the parts/supply chain shortages for new-builds causing impatient people with money in their pocket/credit lines available to plunk for nearly-new stuff on the second hand market, hence inflating the prices and demand, and 2. the rapid rise in living costs/fears of deep recession causing "average" people to sit tight and see how things pan out in the economy before shelling out £5-10k to upgrade their 10 year old Focus. I also think the pool of "average" people who have thousands sitting in the bank to actually fund it outright is likely to be quite small, and with credit having become more expensive recently with stricter lending criteria, that is only going to add to the market weakness.
That's the real danger with this recession: the middle-earners have been squeezed hard by rising housing costs, rising cost of living, expensive dentistry (can't find an NHS dentist any longer), and so on and so forth, with no real help from Govt. If you squeeze too hard, the entire retail economy starts to collapse - and we don't have a lot else to fall back on There seem to be 2 market forces pulling in different directions - 1. the parts/supply chain shortages for new-builds causing impatient people with money in their pocket/credit lines available to plunk for nearly-new stuff on the second hand market, hence inflating the prices and demand, and 2. the rapid rise in living costs/fears of deep recession causing "average" people to sit tight and see how things pan out in the economy before shelling out £5-10k to upgrade their 10 year old Focus. I also think the pool of "average" people who have thousands sitting in the bank to actually fund it outright is likely to be quite small, and with credit having become more expensive recently with stricter lending criteria, that is only going to add to the market weakness.
We supply to the construction industry. This week a Local Building Control Officer said inspections of small domestic extensions had fallen off a cliff.
Most of our business is to high end builds in the Cotswolds. These tend to be multi years builds and there's no sign of slowing down or mothballing.
But, we are nervous and not investing.
Most of our business is to high end builds in the Cotswolds. These tend to be multi years builds and there's no sign of slowing down or mothballing.
But, we are nervous and not investing.
I’ve noticed a slowdown during this month. Some days have been very quiet, others slightly below average, and others randomly pretty busy.
I have a set amount of volume that I need to do in order to earn a sufficient amount not to worry about paying the bills.
For the first time ever my beautiful young accountant, (my Wife ) suggested that I try and pick up any extra rounds as I was slightly behind target.
The problem I’m currently finding is that traditional forecasts for how busy I’m likely to be, (day of the week, time of the month, school holidays or not), which are usually pretty accurate, all of that has gone out of the window. During the last 5-6 weeks there’s been no rhyme or reason as to how busy or quiet I’ve been.
I can’t remember if I mentioned this earlier in the thread, but I had an interesting conversation with the Area Manager of a well known High Street firm about his forecasts for the coming months.
He was saying that they’re seeing the same footfall into their stores, but spending is well down. This is then balanced out by online sales remaining strong, but they’ve got to do constant promotions and sudden price drops. They’re also desperately chucking new product lines into their stores, (away from their core products), in the hope that something will stick and become a big seller.
I wouldn’t say he was panicking, but there was certainly an element of gloom and concern in his forecast.
As a subby, I invoice every four weeks, so I’m a little out of sync with the calendar months. The next four week block is going to take me up to when the schools break up, and the four week block after that will take me almost up to when schools return.
It will be interesting to see how those next 2x four week periods work out. The firm I’m contracted to hasn’t altered their forecasts for the remainder of the year, which is surprising as we don’t do very much B2B. We’re pretty reliant on what the average Joe Bloggs is buying online.
I have a set amount of volume that I need to do in order to earn a sufficient amount not to worry about paying the bills.
For the first time ever my beautiful young accountant, (my Wife
) suggested that I try and pick up any extra rounds as I was slightly behind target.The problem I’m currently finding is that traditional forecasts for how busy I’m likely to be, (day of the week, time of the month, school holidays or not), which are usually pretty accurate, all of that has gone out of the window. During the last 5-6 weeks there’s been no rhyme or reason as to how busy or quiet I’ve been.
I can’t remember if I mentioned this earlier in the thread, but I had an interesting conversation with the Area Manager of a well known High Street firm about his forecasts for the coming months.
He was saying that they’re seeing the same footfall into their stores, but spending is well down. This is then balanced out by online sales remaining strong, but they’ve got to do constant promotions and sudden price drops. They’re also desperately chucking new product lines into their stores, (away from their core products), in the hope that something will stick and become a big seller.
I wouldn’t say he was panicking, but there was certainly an element of gloom and concern in his forecast.
As a subby, I invoice every four weeks, so I’m a little out of sync with the calendar months. The next four week block is going to take me up to when the schools break up, and the four week block after that will take me almost up to when schools return.
It will be interesting to see how those next 2x four week periods work out. The firm I’m contracted to hasn’t altered their forecasts for the remainder of the year, which is surprising as we don’t do very much B2B. We’re pretty reliant on what the average Joe Bloggs is buying online.
22 said:
I work for a posh garden maintenance company. Nice houses with decently wealthy customers including some FTSE big wigs and similar. I'm like a personal concierge service at HQ so often chat to customers although "how's business?" might not present me with audited or sanctioned responses Bits of info from polite chitchat rather than a full picture.
A few from the top of my head....
Owner of chain of hotels. 2022 a really good year for weddings etc (still covid backlog), but bookings for next year very thin on the ground as people get "nervous" - way down on what they'd expect to have in the diary by now.
Founding director of global travel brand. Multi £billion swing in covid, but incredible demand at the moment. I think I saw somewhere else (poss this thread) people seemingly happy to have a holiday and save elsewhere.
Owner of chain of insurance brokers (not a household name). Just sold to a venture capital company and seems to think he's dodged a bullet - although not sure where he thinks struggles lie ahead.
Owner of chain of old people's homes. Just put all suppliers (thankfully not us) on 90 day terms - maybe just big enough to call the shots.
Director at mobile network. Thinks people will start to resist the "inflation PLUS 3.7%" etc increases although then adds he doubts there will be cracking deals elsewhere.
Probably not that useful
I’d disagree. Very useful I thought. Bits of info from polite chitchat rather than a full picture. A few from the top of my head....
Owner of chain of hotels. 2022 a really good year for weddings etc (still covid backlog), but bookings for next year very thin on the ground as people get "nervous" - way down on what they'd expect to have in the diary by now.
Founding director of global travel brand. Multi £billion swing in covid, but incredible demand at the moment. I think I saw somewhere else (poss this thread) people seemingly happy to have a holiday and save elsewhere.
Owner of chain of insurance brokers (not a household name). Just sold to a venture capital company and seems to think he's dodged a bullet - although not sure where he thinks struggles lie ahead.
Owner of chain of old people's homes. Just put all suppliers (thankfully not us) on 90 day terms - maybe just big enough to call the shots.
Director at mobile network. Thinks people will start to resist the "inflation PLUS 3.7%" etc increases although then adds he doubts there will be cracking deals elsewhere.
Probably not that useful
Sheepshanks said:
C Lee Farquar said:
We supply to the construction industry. This week a Local Building Control Officer said inspections of small domestic extensions had fallen off a cliff.
You could easily imagine activity slowly petering out, but seems unlikely it would fall off a cliff.In most recessions in the past there’s been a ripple effect. But GFC, Brexit, Covid, Ukraine, now global inflation, all are visible to everyone at the same time. They all react together, through fear or circumspection or just uncertainty.
This means there’s now far more volatility than hitherto in demand from those who aren’t very secure financially. That means most people these days.
We all see the same things, all react in the same way at the same time. We’re sheep
In addition, there was a big uptick in extensions due to WFH, a bulge in demand that was inevitably going to have a natural life.
So, yes, I’d expect to see what the BCO above is reported as seeing.
skwdenyer said:
Why?
The comment was about inspections by a BCO - there’s a number of those for each build, and there’s quite a long lead time into the build, and it takes a while to complete.Unless large numbers of people are putting work on hold mid-way through then it doesn’t make sense that inspections would suddenly stop.
My revenues are down by more than 30%.
The morning emails which tell me the previous days stats are a horror show.
I have access to the stats for others in the same industry and it is the same story.
After 2 years of record revenues and profits throughout the pandemic the situation is very sobering.
Unfortunately this is only the preamble. Consumers cutting non essential spending in preparation for tough times.
In my opinion the real pain of the perfect storm is yet to come. Winter is coming.
The morning emails which tell me the previous days stats are a horror show.
I have access to the stats for others in the same industry and it is the same story.
After 2 years of record revenues and profits throughout the pandemic the situation is very sobering.
Unfortunately this is only the preamble. Consumers cutting non essential spending in preparation for tough times.
In my opinion the real pain of the perfect storm is yet to come. Winter is coming.
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