Gone very quiet

[DSLiverpool]

If you stopped exporting after Brexit tax & doc complexity then it’s worth reconsidering as many solutions are now in place.

[loafer123]

DSLiverpool said:

If you stopped exporting after Brexit tax & doc complexity then it’s worth reconsidering as many solutions are now in place.

Are any cheap enough, though?

We’ve decided to dump smaller EU sales countries as the fixed costs are too great.

[ben5575]

Phooey said:

It's seems people are just prioritising what they spend their money on - rather than fill their shelves full of tat they are simply putting it all on high-ticket stuff.

I think this is an important observation/part of what we’re seeing atm. There is a chunk of people in the middle that can cope with an extra £500 in bills/petrol/food etc and will just reprioritise

This thinking bleeds into the housing market (to provide thoughts on question above). The more mature buyer with equity/cash will either sit tight or choose what they want to buy carefully

It will hit ftb, single people and people on the edges - the leased white Audi to use that loathsome PH cliche, who will be forced to stay put. Principally because higher bills and interest rates hits affordability calcs and reduces borrowing capacity.

That in and of itself doesn’t suggest a crash but certainly a cooling/slowdown of the mania. We’re still building and selling houses in the north east and Scotland. Interestingly we’re around 80% cash buyers (£300-450k). It will be interesting to see how/if this changes.

[DSLiverpool]

loafer123 said:

DSLiverpool said:

If you stopped exporting after Brexit tax & doc complexity then it’s worth reconsidering as many solutions are now in place.

Are any cheap enough, though?

We’ve decided to dump smaller EU sales countries as the fixed costs are too great.

Yes - I was amazed at what’s available and the prices but I’m reticent to post it here as I’m getting reported a lot for advertising !

[loafer123]

DSLiverpool said:

loafer123 said:

DSLiverpool said:

If you stopped exporting after Brexit tax & doc complexity then it’s worth reconsidering as many solutions are now in place.

Are any cheap enough, though?

We’ve decided to dump smaller EU sales countries as the fixed costs are too great.

Yes - I was amazed at what’s available and the prices but I’m reticent to post it here as I’m getting reported a lot for advertising !

You have always been very generous with your expertise to me and others, so I personally wouldn’t see it as advertising.

If you are more comfortable DMing, it would be great to hear from you, but I think posting for the wider PH audience would be preferable, and if the mods want to blame me instead of you, I’m willing to take the heat!

[105.4]

ben5575 said:

We’re still building and selling houses in the north east and Scotland. Interestingly we’re around 80% cash buyers (£300-450k). It will be interesting to see how/if this changes.

Thanks for answering my question Ben

Cash buyers at £350-£400k ? That’s insane !

Are these private individuals buying these properties, or larger investment firms? Are they paying ‘overs’ to secure and are they buying in bulk, or singular dwellings?

[105.4]

Phooey said:

Amazon driver on Friday said it's quieter than usual - no overspill in distribution centres.

I reckon I do some of that Amazon overspill. The average for me would be around 20-30 Amazon per day on top of my usual stuff.

There was quite a lot of Amazon stuff a week or so ago, spread over several days, (Amazon stuff is distinctive for me because my scanner gets fussy about their barcodes).

This last week I actually cannot recall doing any Amazon parcels at all, although my overall numbers have remained ‘ok’ (ish).

[ClaphamGT3]

We provide advice and professional services related to built assets across a range of market sectors which fit broadly into three buckets - buildings & places, transport & mobility and energy, utilities & the environment.

It is a really mixed bag at the moment with a very fragmented picture between sectors.

Even within housing, it varies from sub sector to sub sector;

Housebuilders & private resi developers: noticeably slowing. Absorption rates well down from - admittedly historic highs - 6 months ago and viability an increasing challenge as construction input costs rise. No shortage of capital availability but clients watching carefully where the market is going and unwilling to roll over and have the supply chain p*ss up the back of their shirt on construction costs

BTR/Student Acc/Assisted Living providers. Demand steady with clients confident about occupancy and prepared to take a long term view on return. Key issue is availability of sites

Registered Providers. Increasingly occupied with the twin spectres of retrofitting existing stock to meet NZC targets and post-Grenfell cladding remediation, which are tying up capital. This will create spend but will not lead to new homes, either for sale to generate profit for reinvestment or to rent to provide more affordable homes to support economic growth

Local Authorities. Activity continuing at pace here with many major LAs bringing forward housing-led urban regeneration schemes with LAs either JVing with private sector developers or self developing and, in either case, availing themselves of PWLB capital to advance schemes and, in some cases, aiming to time their schemes to be counter cyclical with delivery on site taking place during relative slow-down in the private for sale market

That's just the variety in one sub sector. Transport currently seeing demand undiminished but pipeline very dependent on ongoing commitment to infra spending. Energy transition growing exponentially and regulated utilities currently a little quiet but with a strong pipeline as we approach the beginning of the next AMP period.

TL:DR its febrile at the moment; be ready to be agile

[DSLiverpool]

loafer123 said:

DSLiverpool said:

loafer123 said:

DSLiverpool said:

If you stopped exporting after Brexit tax & doc complexity then it’s worth reconsidering as many solutions are now in place.

Are any cheap enough, though?

We’ve decided to dump smaller EU sales countries as the fixed costs are too great.

Yes - I was amazed at what’s available and the prices but I’m reticent to post it here as I’m getting reported a lot for advertising !

You have always been very generous with your expertise to me and others, so I personally wouldn’t see it as advertising.

If you are more comfortable DMing, it would be great to hear from you, but I think posting for the wider PH audience would be preferable, and if the mods want to blame me instead of you, I’m willing to take the heat!

Ok here goes

Avalara for euro entity and all legal compliance docs and accounting. Feeds into xero / sage costs buttons - I was amazed. Also with Euro VAT you may be able to get it paid in arrears using them as typically Dutch tax are asking for deposits.

Fulfilment Crowd for euro hub distribution with an option for UK manufactured goods to be delivered to Chorley for bulk combined shipping to Holland. If importing avoid the UK send straight to Holland.

Dangerous / hazardous goods like perfume - this above solution negates the £50 HG charge shipping from the UK.

Mods if this isn’t allowed what’s PH coming to.

Edited by DSLiverpool on Sunday 26th June 14:07

[loafer123]

DSLiverpool said:

Ok here goes

Avalara for euro entity and all legal compliance docs and accounting. Feeds into xero / sage costs buttons - I was amazed. Also with Euro VAT you may be able to get it paid in arrears using them as typically Dutch tax are asking for deposits.

Fulfilment Crowd for euro hub distribution with an option for UK manufactured goods to be delivered to Chorley for bulk combined shipping to Holland. If importing avoid the UK send straight to Holland.

Dangerous / hazardous goods like perfume - this above solution negates the £50 HG charge shipping from the UK.

Mods if this isn’t allowed what’s PH coming to.

Edited by DSLiverpool on Sunday 26th June 14:07

Thanks - could be useful for some.

[ben5575]

105.4 said:

Thanks for answering my question Ben

Cash buyers at £350-£400k ? That’s insane !

Are these private individuals buying these properties, or larger investment firms? Are they paying ‘overs’ to secure and are they buying in bulk, or singular dwellings?

Individuals or rather couples. No overs or bulk. Just people in their late 40’s etc who’ve paid off their mortgages or older people downsizing who might take a large property for themselves and maybe a second smaller one to rent out/for their kids.

And all of what CGT3 said. I’m a housing/btr developer. It is cost, not need, demand or money that is the issue as I said earlier.

And it’s not true cost/inflation, it’s profiteering. Which is why I’m not as pessimistic as some other threads.

[105.4]

ben5575 said:

Individuals or rather couples. No overs or bulk. Just people in their late 40’s etc who’ve paid off their mortgages or older people downsizing who might take a large property for themselves and maybe a second smaller one to rent out/for their kids.

And all of what CGT3 said. I’m a housing/btr developer. It is cost, not need, demand or money that is the issue as I said earlier.

And it’s not true cost/inflation, it’s profiteering. Which is why I’m not as pessimistic as some other threads.

Many thanks Ben

[Phooey]

DSLiverpool said:

Ref Amazon are you on 360? Have you got deals scheduled?

It dropped off as soon as Prime day was announced right across the board from my view, sadly many sellers will ramp up marketing to unsustainable levels because it’s prime day and not see a tangible benefit.

No, just simple FBM. I'm not tech-savvy at all.

[DSLiverpool]

Phooey said:

No, just simple FBM. I'm not tech-savvy at all.

Probably a lot of low hanging fruit you can pick to boost sales.

[anonymous-user]

ClaphamGT3 said:

We provide advice and professional services related to built assets across a range of market sectors which fit broadly into three buckets - buildings & places, transport & mobility and energy, utilities & the environment.

It is a really mixed bag at the moment with a very fragmented picture between sectors.

Even within housing, it varies from sub sector to sub sector;

Housebuilders & private resi developers: noticeably slowing. Absorption rates well down from - admittedly historic highs - 6 months ago and viability an increasing challenge as construction input costs rise. No shortage of capital availability but clients watching carefully where the market is going and unwilling to roll over and have the supply chain p*ss up the back of their shirt on construction costs

BTR/Student Acc/Assisted Living providers. Demand steady with clients confident about occupancy and prepared to take a long term view on return. Key issue is availability of sites

Registered Providers. Increasingly occupied with the twin spectres of retrofitting existing stock to meet NZC targets and post-Grenfell cladding remediation, which are tying up capital. This will create spend but will not lead to new homes, either for sale to generate profit for reinvestment or to rent to provide more affordable homes to support economic growth

Local Authorities. Activity continuing at pace here with many major LAs bringing forward housing-led urban regeneration schemes with LAs either JVing with private sector developers or self developing and, in either case, availing themselves of PWLB capital to advance schemes and, in some cases, aiming to time their schemes to be counter cyclical with delivery on site taking place during relative slow-down in the private for sale market

That's just the variety in one sub sector. Transport currently seeing demand undiminished but pipeline very dependent on ongoing commitment to infra spending. Energy transition growing exponentially and regulated utilities currently a little quiet but with a strong pipeline as we approach the beginning of the next AMP period.

TL:DR its febrile at the moment; be ready to be agile

As some of you may, but probably don't know, from my other posts, I'm a consultant within social housing, and what Clapham is saying about RP's/Social Landlords is absolutely correct.

Many of them have almost completely abandoned development and stock investment programmes for this year and the next, because they are absolutely tied up in knots over building safety, cladding, and NCZ. They are like a rabbit in the headlights at the moment over the costs and challenges of NCZ/energy/insulation.

[105.4]

What is ‘NCZ’ please Lord M ?

[ben5575]

Net carbon zero

[anonymous-user]

105.4 said:

What is ‘NCZ’ please Lord M ?

ben5575 said:

Net carbon zero

As Ben correctly says.


Housing associations are now faced with the challenge of upgrading the EPC levels of all their stock, insulation programmes, installation of non-fossil fuel heating systems, cladding issues, building safety, the housing 'white paper' and other such things.

Regeneration and new building has taken a back seat at the moment. Some are still pressing ahead with decent development programmes, but many are stalled while they figure out how to pay for all the above. The Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund won't be enough.

[105.4]

Lord Marylebone said:

As Ben correctly says.


Housing associations are now faced with the challenge of upgrading the EPC levels of all their stock, insulation programmes, installation of non-fossil fuel heating systems, cladding issues, building safety, the housing 'white paper' and other such things.

Regeneration and new building has taken a back seat at the moment. Some are still pressing ahead with decent development programmes, but many are stalled while they figure out how to pay for all the above. The Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund won't be enough.

Thank you both, (you and Ben).

Sounds like nightmare of playing catch-up.

[skwdenyer]

DSLiverpool said:

Ok here goes

Avalara for euro entity and all legal compliance docs and accounting. Feeds into xero / sage costs buttons - I was amazed. Also with Euro VAT you may be able to get it paid in arrears using them as typically Dutch tax are asking for deposits.

Fulfilment Crowd for euro hub distribution with an option for UK manufactured goods to be delivered to Chorley for bulk combined shipping to Holland. If importing avoid the UK send straight to Holland.

Dangerous / hazardous goods like perfume - this above solution negates the £50 HG charge shipping from the UK.

Mods if this isn’t allowed what’s PH coming to.

Edited by DSLiverpool on Sunday 26th June 14:07

Good advice. We went rather early, so we set up our own NL entity and found local tax / accounting providers. If doing this, you need to rent an actual office (not just a nameplate like the UK) as your registered office - our accountant rents us a "desk" to get around this. We didn't require a deposit for VAT. Register in NL for VAT OSS. Dutch bank account needs a personal visit to NL, but we've found no problem using a Wise account (even Shopify Payments accepted that) - so that was set up remotely. We had a really good Dutch lawyer and accountant

If you're selling B2B, Dutch VAT is reverse-charge, so you never charge and never receive VAT. If importing, apply for an Article 23 Licence - that will allow you to defer VAT on imports. Or you can use a fiscal representative who will have this in place already (but will charge some additional money along the way).

Watch for different rules on imports depending upon whether you're selling on to trade (wholesale) or direct (ecom / retail).

The benefit of a local entity is that (if you, say, use Shopify) you can use local payment options - in our case we get quite a lot of sales from NL customers using iDEAL which is support by Shopify (but only if your site is properly established in NL).

We're in fashion, so opted for a fashion-specific fulfilment specialist in NL. We're not shipping from UK-EU regularly, instead importing direct into NL. It isn't really cost-effective to move (say) India-produced fashion IN-UK-NL because you'll get hit for duties twice (unless you're running bonded warehousing in the UK and can generate replacement certificates of origin - unlikely to be worth it at the scale of most). That's going to be true for a lot of people (UK being "a nation of shopkeepers" as once said), so quickly you're not going to want to bother with importing via UK.

Also watch out for transferring UK-NL (say) with UK VAT if you don't have a subsidiary and are just going to hold stock in NL. An "export" (where you can get back the import VAT) is only an export if to a 3rd party. If you shift goods to your NL fulfilment hub, you may not in fact have exported the goods for UK VAT purposes - you've just moved them to another location that you own. So you may not be able to reclaim the import VAT on the export, but you'll still have to pay NL VAT on the way in. This requires a little thought about the transaction flow.

The other gotcha to watch for is if you move goods UK-NL via FR (say) then you'll have a different headache - because the VAT may be due at the FR border - so unless you're going to organise a T1 document for movement FR-NL and do customs clearance in NL (which we do via our partner) then you're going to get stung. It is one of the reasons why you should import direct to NL if you can for NL stock-holding. If you are shipping UK-NL you'll need to think carefully about the carrier and the route (or use a 3rd party like Fulfilment Crowd who I'm guessing will make all these problems go away).

In case it's useful, we've used Heebink (dutch haulier with UK operations) to move goods UK-NL when we can't avoid it (pallet loads), and then our NL partner to do the inward clearance (so the goods move from Rotterdam to the warehouse under a T1 document). But that's all a level of complexity above what I think DSL is talking about

What else? Shipping declarations (export and import) tend to get charged by the line. So think about whether you can aggregate your goods on your shipping documents to minimise the number of lines. We group by HS code and country of origin, and by doing so frequently save quite large amounts.

+1 for Avalara, they're good and can handle a bunch of scenarios.

Finally, assume that NL customs are going to be a lot stricter than UK. We've had trouble moving shipments in that would have posed no problems in the UK, due to the rather less-than-flexible approach to some aspects of paperwork. But then we're importing from rural India, so the paperwork quality's often not what it might be.

If all of the above's too much to think about, and you're in fashion, and DSL's approach won't work for you, I'm open to talking about introducing people who can make it all rather easier (but PH Mods please note, I'm not in the consulting business, so this isn't an advertisement of my services).