Gone very quiet
Discussion
Medium term (2023/24) it looks like the recession is in now. We will see at the next major rate meetings for the US and UK (16th and 15th dec) and if we see a slow down in rate rises (as expected) then we are in stage 1 of the pivot.
Also deep diving into latest US job data its interesting to see that the market is being propped up by part time job numbers, full time actually taking a bit of a hammering. In addition retail taking big hits, where as F&B is filling the gap on the thanks giving / xmas run up.
I think the soft landing the banks have been aiming for is getting closer. If they can just continue as they are into maybe Q2 23 they are probably going to keep a lid on things. Which in turn will make things a lot easier for businesses in the UK we will hopefully see the £ grow a bit and then probably rates start to top off into mid 23 and then fall into late 23.
I have a feeling the main losers in the UK will be small businesses. I think big business and the self employed sole traders will all be ok. I think we may see a lot of small businesses that employ 5-10 people gone in 2 years.
Also deep diving into latest US job data its interesting to see that the market is being propped up by part time job numbers, full time actually taking a bit of a hammering. In addition retail taking big hits, where as F&B is filling the gap on the thanks giving / xmas run up.
I think the soft landing the banks have been aiming for is getting closer. If they can just continue as they are into maybe Q2 23 they are probably going to keep a lid on things. Which in turn will make things a lot easier for businesses in the UK we will hopefully see the £ grow a bit and then probably rates start to top off into mid 23 and then fall into late 23.
I have a feeling the main losers in the UK will be small businesses. I think big business and the self employed sole traders will all be ok. I think we may see a lot of small businesses that employ 5-10 people gone in 2 years.
hmg said:
These constant monthly sales are just a race to the bottom for most retailers who can do no more than follow the market. Chasing turnover rather than profit until the house of cards eventually falls down.
What happened to the good old fashioned concept buying a product and selling with enough margin that you actually turn a profit.
A lot of firms in survival mode. What happened to the good old fashioned concept buying a product and selling with enough margin that you actually turn a profit.
The economy is being crashed (semi controlled) by the banks in order to get inflation under control.
Until that happens expect more of the same.
Looking at the stock market it does seem we are looking at max pain in q4 and q1 of 24.
The rate rises are slowing down and as soon as they stop the rises you know they probably went too far.
The key numbers to watch are fhe employment rate .
On the plus side the last couple of months have been ok for the economy despite conditions and that means we might be heading for a soft landing. Which would be good outcome.
The rate rises are slowing down and as soon as they stop the rises you know they probably went too far.
The key numbers to watch are fhe employment rate .
On the plus side the last couple of months have been ok for the economy despite conditions and that means we might be heading for a soft landing. Which would be good outcome.
There are going to be a lot of businesses just feeling the cost to open the doors given the cost of utilities now.
When I ran my company it was about £1000 a day just to open the doors, excluding wages. We were not a big business, less than 10 people.
I remember sitting down with the staff to discuss pay rises and someone said that I should consider a 4 day week.
I tried to explain that the vast majority of the costs were fixed and it didnt matter if we only opened 4 or 3 days a week and then there was the lost opportunity of that 5th day.
No one seemed to get it - it was around that time I lost the drive to run the business!!
When I ran my company it was about £1000 a day just to open the doors, excluding wages. We were not a big business, less than 10 people.
I remember sitting down with the staff to discuss pay rises and someone said that I should consider a 4 day week.
I tried to explain that the vast majority of the costs were fixed and it didnt matter if we only opened 4 or 3 days a week and then there was the lost opportunity of that 5th day.
No one seemed to get it - it was around that time I lost the drive to run the business!!
Keep it civil guys, we are all just trying to help each other out.
Single, best of luck with it mate. The thing is I think people are just trying to help as right now things in the economy are well, fragile. They dont want to see you end up in a bad spot.
But, the next 12-18 months might actually be a good time to open a shop.
I can see rents falling, landlords might get desperate. You might be able to get a cheap deal plus possibility of favourable terms due to the slow down. That said there is still a shortage of good retail units in good locations, the stuff thats left is the dregs from 2019.
If I were to look for a shop for a business for me the key things these days are good parking, ideally free parking with no restrictions, good security, plenty of space for admin and cheap heating!! (if thats possible these days)
I do think tough times are ahead though. We (I) have been saying that for years though. But it is looking more and more like we will see the economy take a bit of a dive at the back end of this year. The only thing keeping things afloat right now is that the jobs numbers are strong and that inflation is under control (ish). If inflation spikes or if lots of people start to lose their jobs then its game over IMHO.
Back on topic, I had a call last night at 930pm from an old employee. He had just been let go from is job and was ringing round in a panic to try and get work. I felt bad telling him we had shut up shop but its just another data point I guess.
Single, best of luck with it mate. The thing is I think people are just trying to help as right now things in the economy are well, fragile. They dont want to see you end up in a bad spot.
But, the next 12-18 months might actually be a good time to open a shop.
I can see rents falling, landlords might get desperate. You might be able to get a cheap deal plus possibility of favourable terms due to the slow down. That said there is still a shortage of good retail units in good locations, the stuff thats left is the dregs from 2019.
If I were to look for a shop for a business for me the key things these days are good parking, ideally free parking with no restrictions, good security, plenty of space for admin and cheap heating!! (if thats possible these days)
I do think tough times are ahead though. We (I) have been saying that for years though. But it is looking more and more like we will see the economy take a bit of a dive at the back end of this year. The only thing keeping things afloat right now is that the jobs numbers are strong and that inflation is under control (ish). If inflation spikes or if lots of people start to lose their jobs then its game over IMHO.
Back on topic, I had a call last night at 930pm from an old employee. He had just been let go from is job and was ringing round in a panic to try and get work. I felt bad telling him we had shut up shop but its just another data point I guess.
Fusion777 said:
jammy-git said:
Man doesn't take advice he didn't ask for. Not that shocking and I think everyone has been quite civil so far.
Anyway. I was very shocked to hear we've avoided a recession. I do wonder whether those ONS numbers are going to get revised later down the line to show we did actually enter a recession. I think Q1 this year is going to be brutal on the economy.
Have said on another thread that performance over the last 4 quarters has been very poor. I still think it’s likely that we’ll slip into recession this year, or if we’re lucky it will be a flat line situation like we had after the financial crash. Anyway. I was very shocked to hear we've avoided a recession. I do wonder whether those ONS numbers are going to get revised later down the line to show we did actually enter a recession. I think Q1 this year is going to be brutal on the economy.
Other companies are on their @rse.
So one is cancelling out the other.
IMHO.
We wont see the real wobble till the BOE/FED pivot and reduce interest rates, thats when the real damage has been done and we are likely to see 6-12 months of real issues. Then hopefully a recovery.
They are still aiming for a soft landing though, and TBH at the moment thats exactly what it looks like.
(Big) Businesses making good profits still.
Many people had decent pay rises.
Many people still WFH meaning outgoings are still lower due to lower travel costs etc.
Winter is over so utilities costs are falling.
Employment is at an all time high plus jobs are easy to find.
It all looks fairly good.
But in the background there is a lot of trouble,
Small businesses struggling.
Inflation still high and could get sticky around 6-7%.
Interest rates climbing still and may have to go higher than planned.
Banks less keen to lend.
Savings starting to dry up.
Higher utility bills on the horizon.
As soon as people start to default (businesses and personally) its going to be a car crash.
I think thats all the government is trying to avoid right now. If they can get people to scrape through the next 2 years by the skin of their teeth then its a job well done.
Because its going to be a close one. I think with the way things are going we might just scrape it and avoid a major recession but I also think if we do have problems its going to be really serious, I could see a lot of repossessions and a lot of people out of work. 2009 all over again, but worse.
Many people had decent pay rises.
Many people still WFH meaning outgoings are still lower due to lower travel costs etc.
Winter is over so utilities costs are falling.
Employment is at an all time high plus jobs are easy to find.
It all looks fairly good.
But in the background there is a lot of trouble,
Small businesses struggling.
Inflation still high and could get sticky around 6-7%.
Interest rates climbing still and may have to go higher than planned.
Banks less keen to lend.
Savings starting to dry up.
Higher utility bills on the horizon.
As soon as people start to default (businesses and personally) its going to be a car crash.
I think thats all the government is trying to avoid right now. If they can get people to scrape through the next 2 years by the skin of their teeth then its a job well done.
Because its going to be a close one. I think with the way things are going we might just scrape it and avoid a major recession but I also think if we do have problems its going to be really serious, I could see a lot of repossessions and a lot of people out of work. 2009 all over again, but worse.
skwdenyer said:
M1AGM said:
Mr Whippy said:
Given what we’re seeing, I think supply issues are causing increased uk demand and pushing prices higher.
Thus farmers are a bit flush with cash.
How this’ll pan out when import supplies find their feet again, and uk prices can’t come back down due to sticky inflation and higher labour costs…
Hmmmm
I always seem to hear stories about farmers being almost broke or going bust.Thus farmers are a bit flush with cash.
How this’ll pan out when import supplies find their feet again, and uk prices can’t come back down due to sticky inflation and higher labour costs…
Hmmmm
A local indicator I use is once we get into the warmer months is how busy my local pub beer garden is at 5pm on a Friday.
I have noticed during the good times its always rammed and during the times when money is tight its less busy.
You have to watch for false positives though, weather, football and funerals!!
I would use this as an economic indicator for my business and on the whole it was pretty reliable.
Last couple of weeks I think things have stabilised a bit. I think we are going to be ok for the next few months.
Looks like rate rises are slowing or might even stop. Warmer weather brings less pressure from utilities costs.
Central banks have clearly indicated they will bail out smaller banks at the first sign of trouble.
I dont want to count my chickens but I would be pretty confident we wont see any further wobbles now for 5-6 months.
Its when the pivot comes and the few months after that I would worry.
I have noticed during the good times its always rammed and during the times when money is tight its less busy.
You have to watch for false positives though, weather, football and funerals!!
I would use this as an economic indicator for my business and on the whole it was pretty reliable.
Last couple of weeks I think things have stabilised a bit. I think we are going to be ok for the next few months.
Looks like rate rises are slowing or might even stop. Warmer weather brings less pressure from utilities costs.
Central banks have clearly indicated they will bail out smaller banks at the first sign of trouble.
I dont want to count my chickens but I would be pretty confident we wont see any further wobbles now for 5-6 months.
Its when the pivot comes and the few months after that I would worry.
clockworks said:
I've never understood the "returns culture". If I order something online, I'll only return it if it's damaged or faulty (for replacement), or if it's junk (not as described, not fit for purpose).
Returning items because the buyer has changed their mind, or ordered several and just picked one to keep, seems like a massive waste of time and money for everyone concerned.
Just go to your local post office in the morning, its mostly 25-30 year old females with 3 or 4 packets all to be returned. I used to go to the post office nearly every day (business banking) and it was crazy to see it like that every day. Returning items because the buyer has changed their mind, or ordered several and just picked one to keep, seems like a massive waste of time and money for everyone concerned.
I have been catching up with a few old business associates recently and they are all reporting very quiet. The one I know the best is calling it a day in the next few weeks. Already let all the staff go and just sorting out things before he sells his premises. Thats changed very quickly as last time I spoke with him about 3 months ago it was fairly busy.
The 2 big grounds maintenance companies I know are busy but profit margins have reduced to near zero so they are letting staff go and thats putting more pressure on the existing staff who are then finding other work. So its a chicken and egg situation - they are both doing very similar jobs for very similar clients and both describe this as 2008/9/10 all over again.
The 2 big grounds maintenance companies I know are busy but profit margins have reduced to near zero so they are letting staff go and thats putting more pressure on the existing staff who are then finding other work. So its a chicken and egg situation - they are both doing very similar jobs for very similar clients and both describe this as 2008/9/10 all over again.
youngsyr said:
gotoPzero said:
Slow.Patrol said:
So glad I am now retired.
Same.I am sure things will bounce back. But I have a feeling we are still 12 months out from start of max pain. New year 2025 for the dust to have settled and hopefully back on the up.
The banks are aiming for a soft landing.
We will see, and no one knows for sure - but if the banks / governments get it right we should glide for a nice soft landing and then its all going to be good. But if unemployment spikes and people start to default we may see trouble.
The big issue at the moment is the wage price spiral. It cant go on forever and the government knows this and at some point they will hit the big red button and swerve the economy into a tree... not too hard... just enough to take some time to fix!!
So we need to see things cool off, not because I am a doom monger but because thats what we actually need to happen to avoid any sort of major upset. The longer we carry on as we are the more the chance is of that upset.
IMVHO!!!
GardeningEcomm said:
But last year when sales slowed dramatically we increased to bi-weekly.
Especially when the weather was very good.
It felt like we had to maximise our 'levers' in a very tough market.
Its a very weird industry!! We were trading just over 60 years and I had data going back 30 of those and its very fickle!!Especially when the weather was very good.
It felt like we had to maximise our 'levers' in a very tough market.
The slightest thing can throw sales off, or cause a boom.
The hardest part is finding customers in Nov - March. We also found that the season would get slightly shorter. When I joined the business the season kicked off mid March and ran right through till early October. By the time we closed the season was really only May and June. The other months were not much to write home about. I am sure costs caused a lot of that though, but buying habits were defo changing over time.
It took us years to find an e-commerce management company who could actually understand the business. Even then it took them probably 2 years to get the idea that its not like a normal business.
Best of luck, the one thing I used to track religiously was the sea surface temps. Use NOAA.
Its incredible how closely linked they are. I think you will have had a busy March, April and May.
The SSTs have been high. The ENSO alert is active so its possible we may have a bad Jan - Feb next year.
El Nino Advisory is in full swing!
HTH!
Sorry for late reply, missed it.
The data is all here
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWli...
Scroll down to Expert Discussions/Assessments
Open the weekly report
Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction Presentation
You will need to learn how to read the charts - but its easy once you figure it out.
The maps that look like a giant smudge you read from top to bottom.
The very last page on the report is your straight answer.
The data is all here
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWli...
Scroll down to Expert Discussions/Assessments
Open the weekly report
Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction Presentation
You will need to learn how to read the charts - but its easy once you figure it out.
The maps that look like a giant smudge you read from top to bottom.
The very last page on the report is your straight answer.
Peak time for gardening stuff is May and June. I think the wet weather will have put the brakes on the June run. July just as bad.
An old business friend who was in the same line as me went on holiday for 2 weeks at the start of July as it wasn't worth being in work (unheard of really) and then came back for a few days, was just as quiet so has flown off for another week.
Looking at the charts I cant see it improving much even into August. In fact I think it might get worse, could get cooler.
I think we will be lucky to go more than 3 days without rain too. This will be hurting the pubs and garden centres etc.
Indoor play areas, cinemas and shopping centres might do better.
An old business friend who was in the same line as me went on holiday for 2 weeks at the start of July as it wasn't worth being in work (unheard of really) and then came back for a few days, was just as quiet so has flown off for another week.
Looking at the charts I cant see it improving much even into August. In fact I think it might get worse, could get cooler.
I think we will be lucky to go more than 3 days without rain too. This will be hurting the pubs and garden centres etc.
Indoor play areas, cinemas and shopping centres might do better.
The tiktok and shorts thing really is at saturation now.
I would say the vast majority of my old customers do it now. We were on the cusp before we retired, but I resisted!!
Having been through a business that advertised quite heavily from yellow pages then to radio then to website with links, then website with organic google then finally CPC and FB its all just the next 5 year cycle IMHO. We started a youtube channel and it was ok but in reality it was just content for FB.
When you have Kevin the brickie doing tiktoks of here is another wall I built... and here is a pallet of bricks being delivered.... today I am at the dentist... its all just noise but it keeps the SM companies and the likes in a job I guess!
I think a lot of it is a way for blokes to keep up with their mrs on instagram!! Yep sounds pathetic but I think its true.
At least back in the day it was easy (and free) for us to know how our 20k of yellow pages advertising was going. Set up a dedicated phone number for each book and every time that phone rings put a mark on the daily sales chart, every sale a star. And off you go. End of each week within 5 minutes you knew how it was going in each area.
These days its all analytics and guess what that needs.... ££££....
I would say the vast majority of my old customers do it now. We were on the cusp before we retired, but I resisted!!
Having been through a business that advertised quite heavily from yellow pages then to radio then to website with links, then website with organic google then finally CPC and FB its all just the next 5 year cycle IMHO. We started a youtube channel and it was ok but in reality it was just content for FB.
When you have Kevin the brickie doing tiktoks of here is another wall I built... and here is a pallet of bricks being delivered.... today I am at the dentist... its all just noise but it keeps the SM companies and the likes in a job I guess!
I think a lot of it is a way for blokes to keep up with their mrs on instagram!! Yep sounds pathetic but I think its true.
At least back in the day it was easy (and free) for us to know how our 20k of yellow pages advertising was going. Set up a dedicated phone number for each book and every time that phone rings put a mark on the daily sales chart, every sale a star. And off you go. End of each week within 5 minutes you knew how it was going in each area.
These days its all analytics and guess what that needs.... ££££....
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