Gone very quiet
Discussion
I'm on the flip side of most of what everyone does - in as much as my job is buying development land (land, offices, industrial estates, brownfield sites etc etc). My patch is Reading to Swansea, Oxford to Newbury for one particular firm (I run my own little Ltd company and contract my services to different clients - currently have 6 clients, 3 private developers whom pay me regularly, the other 3 are a charity and 2 affordable housing companies that are in disarray at the moment).
I write to 100 sites a week. Since early May I've found and written to 2,572 sites (over 3,000 letters when you take into account that sometimes land has more than one owner).
I usually get a 3 to 4% response (in the old days, as it were) and although the response rate is slightly up to 5 or 6% overall, the two key differences have been the motivation of the respondees (they really want to sell, it's not a phone call to try and get me to value their land for development and then radio silence....) to date and the last 3 weeks has been worryingly busy - it's nearer 18-20% in responses.
As far as I'm concerned this is just the start - a big date is 25th December (rent day if you're on a 1954 Lease typically) for me - we've got the ending of the furlough scheme, lockdowns here, there, and everywhere and then Brexit on 31st December. I get the feeling that March/April next year is when things are really, really going to bite - and that we're in for some serious s
t over the next 2 to 4 years.
The number of people I'm speaking to whom have lost businesses, or are ill or have divorced or have lost members of their family or right hand men/women from work or have hit financial meltdown or have just had enough, in the last 6 months has been awful - my job is to negotiate to buy land but you can't do an effective job at that unless you understand the background to the vendor, in my view - to understand what they want, what their timeframes are etc etc - in order to try and flex the deal terms and price etc to come to an equitable deal (sometimes it's simply not possible of course) but I find myself being confided in by alot of people - perhaps I'm one of the first people they've been able to speak to that isn't family or an employee perhaps; sometimes once the floodgates open I've not been able to stop them or wanted to - it's clearly needed by them and if that helps them then i see it as a good deed done.
Perhaps I should be more mercenary and just dictate terms and move on but I can't - I think other companies just ride roughshod over people and although I'd love the money that attitude brings, I can't do it myself. I try to build up trust this way (ultimately I'm being selfish of course - I want them to do the deal with me/company I work for).
When the initial lockdown finished, the response rate dropped (people were too busy with their businesses etc) but things started to get busy about 6 weeks ago and as I say, the last 3 weeks have been overwhelming. I've started to write to land that charities own (I usually don't because they typically have to go to the market, because of european law, the OJEU rules, dictate they have to achieve best value for their land ie they can't usually sell on a one-to-one basis) but with a charity client telling me how much financial hardship they are in have just started writing to them too - and I've been given over 100 acres by charities to assess in the last 3 weeks. Offered on 27 of that 100 so far. What's really surprising is how much of that land was bequeathed to them too - hundreds and hundreds of acres bequeathed to them. But I digress.
I write to 100 sites a week. Since early May I've found and written to 2,572 sites (over 3,000 letters when you take into account that sometimes land has more than one owner).
I usually get a 3 to 4% response (in the old days, as it were) and although the response rate is slightly up to 5 or 6% overall, the two key differences have been the motivation of the respondees (they really want to sell, it's not a phone call to try and get me to value their land for development and then radio silence....) to date and the last 3 weeks has been worryingly busy - it's nearer 18-20% in responses.
As far as I'm concerned this is just the start - a big date is 25th December (rent day if you're on a 1954 Lease typically) for me - we've got the ending of the furlough scheme, lockdowns here, there, and everywhere and then Brexit on 31st December. I get the feeling that March/April next year is when things are really, really going to bite - and that we're in for some serious s
t over the next 2 to 4 years.The number of people I'm speaking to whom have lost businesses, or are ill or have divorced or have lost members of their family or right hand men/women from work or have hit financial meltdown or have just had enough, in the last 6 months has been awful - my job is to negotiate to buy land but you can't do an effective job at that unless you understand the background to the vendor, in my view - to understand what they want, what their timeframes are etc etc - in order to try and flex the deal terms and price etc to come to an equitable deal (sometimes it's simply not possible of course) but I find myself being confided in by alot of people - perhaps I'm one of the first people they've been able to speak to that isn't family or an employee perhaps; sometimes once the floodgates open I've not been able to stop them or wanted to - it's clearly needed by them and if that helps them then i see it as a good deed done.
Perhaps I should be more mercenary and just dictate terms and move on but I can't - I think other companies just ride roughshod over people and although I'd love the money that attitude brings, I can't do it myself. I try to build up trust this way (ultimately I'm being selfish of course - I want them to do the deal with me/company I work for).
When the initial lockdown finished, the response rate dropped (people were too busy with their businesses etc) but things started to get busy about 6 weeks ago and as I say, the last 3 weeks have been overwhelming. I've started to write to land that charities own (I usually don't because they typically have to go to the market, because of european law, the OJEU rules, dictate they have to achieve best value for their land ie they can't usually sell on a one-to-one basis) but with a charity client telling me how much financial hardship they are in have just started writing to them too - and I've been given over 100 acres by charities to assess in the last 3 weeks. Offered on 27 of that 100 so far. What's really surprising is how much of that land was bequeathed to them too - hundreds and hundreds of acres bequeathed to them. But I digress.
Edited by Oi_Oi_Savaloy on Wednesday 21st October 07:49
Oi_Oi_Savaloy said:
I'm on the flip side of most of what everyone does - in as much as my job is buying development land (land, offices, industrial estates, brownfield sites etc etc). My patch is Reading to Swansea, Oxford to Newbury for one particular firm (I run my own little Ltd company and contract my services to different clients - currently have 6 clients, 3 private developers whom pay me regularly, the other 3 are a charity and 2 affordable housing companies that are in disarray at the moment).
I write to 100 sites a week. Since early May I've found and written to 2,572 sites (over 3,000 letters when you take into account that sometimes land has more than one owner).
I usually get a 3 to 4% response (in the old days, as it were) and although the response rate is slightly up to 5 or 6% overall, the two key differences have been the motivation of the respondees (they really want to sell, it's not a phone call to try and get me to value their land for development and then radio silence....) to date and the last 3 weeks has been worryingly busy - it's nearer 18-20% in responses.
As far as I'm concerned this is just the start - a big date is 25th December (rent day if you're on a 1954 Lease typically) for me - we've got the ending of the furlough scheme, lockdowns here, there, and everywhere and then Brexit on 31st December. I get the feeling that March/April next year is when things are really, really going to bite - and that we're in for some serious st over the next 2 to 4 years.
The number of people I'm speaking to whom have lost businesses, or are ill or have divorced or have lost members of their family or right hand men/women from work or have hit financial meltdown or have just had enough, in the last 6 months has been awful - my job is to negotiate to buy land but you can't do an effective job at that unless you understand the background to the vendor, in my view - to understand what they want, what their timeframes are etc etc - in order to try and flex the deal terms and price etc to come to an equitable deal (sometimes it's simply not possible of course) but I find myself being confided in by alot of people - perhaps I'm one of the first people they've been able to speak to that isn't family or an employee perhaps; sometimes once the floodgates open I've not been able to stop them or wanted to - it's clearly needed by them and if that helps them then i see it as a good deed done.
Perhaps I should be more mercenary and just dictate terms and move on but I can't - I think other companies just ride roughshod over people and although I'd love the money that attitude brings, I can't do it myself. I try to build up trust this way (ultimately I'm being selfish of course - I want them to do the deal with me/company I work for).
When the initial lockdown finished, the response rate dropped (people were too busy with their businesses etc) but things started to get busy about 6 weeks ago and as I say, the last 3 weeks have been overwhelming. I've started to write to land that charities own (I usually don't because they typically have to go to the market, because of european law, the OJEU rules, dictate they have to achieve best value for their land ie they can't usually sell on a one-to-one basis) but with a charity client telling me how much financial hardship they are in have just started writing to them too - and I've been given over 100 acres by charities to assess in the last 3 weeks. Offered on 27 of that 100 so far. What's really surprising is how much of that land was bequeathed to them too - hundreds and hundreds of acres bequeathed to them. But I digress.
Really very, very interesting!I write to 100 sites a week. Since early May I've found and written to 2,572 sites (over 3,000 letters when you take into account that sometimes land has more than one owner).
I usually get a 3 to 4% response (in the old days, as it were) and although the response rate is slightly up to 5 or 6% overall, the two key differences have been the motivation of the respondees (they really want to sell, it's not a phone call to try and get me to value their land for development and then radio silence....) to date and the last 3 weeks has been worryingly busy - it's nearer 18-20% in responses.
As far as I'm concerned this is just the start - a big date is 25th December (rent day if you're on a 1954 Lease typically) for me - we've got the ending of the furlough scheme, lockdowns here, there, and everywhere and then Brexit on 31st December. I get the feeling that March/April next year is when things are really, really going to bite - and that we're in for some serious s
t over the next 2 to 4 years.The number of people I'm speaking to whom have lost businesses, or are ill or have divorced or have lost members of their family or right hand men/women from work or have hit financial meltdown or have just had enough, in the last 6 months has been awful - my job is to negotiate to buy land but you can't do an effective job at that unless you understand the background to the vendor, in my view - to understand what they want, what their timeframes are etc etc - in order to try and flex the deal terms and price etc to come to an equitable deal (sometimes it's simply not possible of course) but I find myself being confided in by alot of people - perhaps I'm one of the first people they've been able to speak to that isn't family or an employee perhaps; sometimes once the floodgates open I've not been able to stop them or wanted to - it's clearly needed by them and if that helps them then i see it as a good deed done.
Perhaps I should be more mercenary and just dictate terms and move on but I can't - I think other companies just ride roughshod over people and although I'd love the money that attitude brings, I can't do it myself. I try to build up trust this way (ultimately I'm being selfish of course - I want them to do the deal with me/company I work for).
When the initial lockdown finished, the response rate dropped (people were too busy with their businesses etc) but things started to get busy about 6 weeks ago and as I say, the last 3 weeks have been overwhelming. I've started to write to land that charities own (I usually don't because they typically have to go to the market, because of european law, the OJEU rules, dictate they have to achieve best value for their land ie they can't usually sell on a one-to-one basis) but with a charity client telling me how much financial hardship they are in have just started writing to them too - and I've been given over 100 acres by charities to assess in the last 3 weeks. Offered on 27 of that 100 so far. What's really surprising is how much of that land was bequeathed to them too - hundreds and hundreds of acres bequeathed to them. But I digress.
Edited by Oi_Oi_Savaloy on Wednesday 21st October 07:49
Just out of curiosity, do you deal much with smaller parcels of land for development? I'm thinking big enough for one or two medium sized houses - and if you do, how does this differ, in terms of ease of discovery, purchase and development, compared to larger plots?
Jammy
Not usually but that's simply because I'm given a set of parameters by the companies I work for, and it just so happens that they want larger sites (in excess of 0.5 of an acre) at the moment. I'm also looking for air-rights opportunities but that's a totally different ball game.
I'm not the only one buying sites on ph of course - there are alot of extremely knowledgeable people out here (as it were) but from my perspective they can be as hard work to do a deal on, as a bigger site and far more emotive in negotiation (and I have to tread extremely lightly because I'm typically dealing with mums and dads - not property people as such).
Planning rules (particularly backland development where it's just gardens being converted into residential) can be onerous too. If, however, the land has been used for something other than playing with the kids on - perhaps there's an existing workshop or office, or commercial use for example, then things can sometimes go better at planning. But planning aint easy for 1 for 1's or 1 or 2's.
Often access is tough; not so much width of the access but splay distances.
There are hundreds and hundreds of opportunities out there - I see loads when I'm trawling for sites (I usually get up at 6am and use the two hours til 8 for trawling - no distractions and you need to be disciplined) - I try to find 25 sites a day - it doesn't feel so onerous as 100 sites a week.
Planning authorities are very cute - they are trying to do everything they can to maximise their affordable housing delivery - so there are myriad planning policies designed to capture affordable. Affordable housing, from a societal back drop is no bad thing but it usually has a detrimental impact on land values. As does CIL/S106 payments, remediation costs etc etc. Basically anything that drags a cost into the equation will affect the land value first and foremost.
I hope that gives a bit of help?
Not usually but that's simply because I'm given a set of parameters by the companies I work for, and it just so happens that they want larger sites (in excess of 0.5 of an acre) at the moment. I'm also looking for air-rights opportunities but that's a totally different ball game.
I'm not the only one buying sites on ph of course - there are alot of extremely knowledgeable people out here (as it were) but from my perspective they can be as hard work to do a deal on, as a bigger site and far more emotive in negotiation (and I have to tread extremely lightly because I'm typically dealing with mums and dads - not property people as such).
Planning rules (particularly backland development where it's just gardens being converted into residential) can be onerous too. If, however, the land has been used for something other than playing with the kids on - perhaps there's an existing workshop or office, or commercial use for example, then things can sometimes go better at planning. But planning aint easy for 1 for 1's or 1 or 2's.
Often access is tough; not so much width of the access but splay distances.
There are hundreds and hundreds of opportunities out there - I see loads when I'm trawling for sites (I usually get up at 6am and use the two hours til 8 for trawling - no distractions and you need to be disciplined) - I try to find 25 sites a day - it doesn't feel so onerous as 100 sites a week.
Planning authorities are very cute - they are trying to do everything they can to maximise their affordable housing delivery - so there are myriad planning policies designed to capture affordable. Affordable housing, from a societal back drop is no bad thing but it usually has a detrimental impact on land values. As does CIL/S106 payments, remediation costs etc etc. Basically anything that drags a cost into the equation will affect the land value first and foremost.
I hope that gives a bit of help?
Edited by Oi_Oi_Savaloy on Wednesday 21st October 11:58
Thank you for the in-depth reply!
Regarding the bit about affordable housing; if someone was looking to to find a small parcel of land and build a couple of cheaper, sustainable self-builds - do you think planning departments might look on that slightly more favourably as it would count towards an affordable housing quota?
Regarding the bit about affordable housing; if someone was looking to to find a small parcel of land and build a couple of cheaper, sustainable self-builds - do you think planning departments might look on that slightly more favourably as it would count towards an affordable housing quota?
Potentially - but you'd have to sell the site (or the completed units) to an RSL (registered social landlord) and it then comes down to whether an RSL could effectively manage those properties (depends on location and other parameters). Please bear in mind I have no idea where this land is, what it's location is to other HA sites/units etc etc.
What I'm trying to say is yes it could well mean that planning permission is won, but you could be left with a consent that you can't implement.
There's a reason you're asking - there's a problem with the site you know about /own?
What I'm trying to say is yes it could well mean that planning permission is won, but you could be left with a consent that you can't implement.
There's a reason you're asking - there's a problem with the site you know about /own?
Ahhh, OK, didn't realise the whole thing about RSLs!
No particular reason for asking, other than it being my long term goal to buy a parcel of land and do a sustainable self-build. I've spoke to a number of people and it seems to be very, very difficult to get plots around here in Kent, especially if you don't have a high six figure budget, let alone planning.
No particular reason for asking, other than it being my long term goal to buy a parcel of land and do a sustainable self-build. I've spoke to a number of people and it seems to be very, very difficult to get plots around here in Kent, especially if you don't have a high six figure budget, let alone planning.
singlecoil said:
I get that people are naturally shy, and maybe wary of web detectives, but not posting what business they are in means that nothing can be learned from their posts.
fair enough.I'm in Enterprise and medium sized business software development. Again, at the moment really busy, with more work than normal and pipeline until March and hopefully beyond then, but the general outlook is dire in my opinion.
All tradesmen I know are busy and the retail parks I've been visiting all appear to be busy on the weekends.
Think back to the credit crunch, restaurants and business were still booming, but it took about 6-9 months after the first headlines before you saw shops boarded up and it starting to effect the man on the street.
What's different about this economic mess we're in is that every country is in a comparable mess? Who knows what's going to happen to the financial system at the end of this. Will the whole thing be treated as a war debt?
Think back to the credit crunch, restaurants and business were still booming, but it took about 6-9 months after the first headlines before you saw shops boarded up and it starting to effect the man on the street.
What's different about this economic mess we're in is that every country is in a comparable mess? Who knows what's going to happen to the financial system at the end of this. Will the whole thing be treated as a war debt?
cheekymeerkat said:
What's different about this economic mess we're in is that every country is in a comparable mess? Who knows what's going to happen to the financial system at the end of this. Will the whole thing be treated as a war debt?
There is a big "solution" to the financial system just lying around waiting to be implemented...https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/06/03/sp...
We're going to love it.
cheekymeerkat said:
What's different about this economic mess we're in is that every country is in a comparable mess? Who knows what's going to happen to the financial system at the end of this. Will the whole thing be treated as a war debt?
I think the other thing to note, it's not really a recession we are facing (even if, the longer things drag-on, that will be the actual outcome) The economy was in relatively good condition prior to this with low-unemployment, the housing market a little overheated perhaps. But the economy was essentially put into hibernation by the lockdowns rather than some financial screw-ups. The high-street has been on borrowed time for a decade, this is just the nail in the coffin.
Some legacy industries will fade away, new ones will pop-up and it's really a matter of riding out this storm until we get things sorted, hopefully before next summer!
Canute said:
I think the other thing to note, it's not really a recession we are facing (even if, the longer things drag-on, that will be the actual outcome) The economy was in relatively good condition prior to this with low-unemployment, the housing market a little overheated perhaps. But the economy was essentially put into hibernation by the lockdowns rather than some financial screw-ups.
Only half the economy was put in hibernation. The income side. The debt side ticks on. The result is going to be about the same as putting half a person in cryogenic storage.
Oi_Oi_Savaloy said:
I'm on the flip side of most of what everyone does - in as much as my job is buying development land (land, offices, industrial estates, brownfield sites etc etc). My patch is Reading to Swansea, Oxford to Newbury for one particular firm (I run my own little Ltd company and contract my services to different clients - currently have 6 clients, 3 private developers whom pay me regularly, the other 3 are a charity and 2 affordable housing companies that are in disarray at the moment).
I write to 100 sites a week. Since early May I've found and written to 2,572 sites (over 3,000 letters when you take into account that sometimes land has more than one owner).
I usually get a 3 to 4% response (in the old days, as it were) and although the response rate is slightly up to 5 or 6% overall, the two key differences have been the motivation of the respondees (they really want to sell, it's not a phone call to try and get me to value their land for development and then radio silence....) to date and the last 3 weeks has been worryingly busy - it's nearer 18-20% in responses.
As far as I'm concerned this is just the start - a big date is 25th December (rent day if you're on a 1954 Lease typically) for me - we've got the ending of the furlough scheme, lockdowns here, there, and everywhere and then Brexit on 31st December. I get the feeling that March/April next year is when things are really, really going to bite - and that we're in for some serious st over the next 2 to 4 years.
The number of people I'm speaking to whom have lost businesses, or are ill or have divorced or have lost members of their family or right hand men/women from work or have hit financial meltdown or have just had enough, in the last 6 months has been awful - my job is to negotiate to buy land but you can't do an effective job at that unless you understand the background to the vendor, in my view - to understand what they want, what their timeframes are etc etc - in order to try and flex the deal terms and price etc to come to an equitable deal (sometimes it's simply not possible of course) but I find myself being confided in by alot of people - perhaps I'm one of the first people they've been able to speak to that isn't family or an employee perhaps; sometimes once the floodgates open I've not been able to stop them or wanted to - it's clearly needed by them and if that helps them then i see it as a good deed done.
Perhaps I should be more mercenary and just dictate terms and move on but I can't - I think other companies just ride roughshod over people and although I'd love the money that attitude brings, I can't do it myself. I try to build up trust this way (ultimately I'm being selfish of course - I want them to do the deal with me/company I work for).
When the initial lockdown finished, the response rate dropped (people were too busy with their businesses etc) but things started to get busy about 6 weeks ago and as I say, the last 3 weeks have been overwhelming. I've started to write to land that charities own (I usually don't because they typically have to go to the market, because of european law, the OJEU rules, dictate they have to achieve best value for their land ie they can't usually sell on a one-to-one basis) but with a charity client telling me how much financial hardship they are in have just started writing to them too - and I've been given over 100 acres by charities to assess in the last 3 weeks. Offered on 27 of that 100 so far. What's really surprising is how much of that land was bequeathed to them too - hundreds and hundreds of acres bequeathed to them. But I digress.
A very interesting insight there not to forget for each distressed seller you'll have multiple buyers lining up that will benefit. I write to 100 sites a week. Since early May I've found and written to 2,572 sites (over 3,000 letters when you take into account that sometimes land has more than one owner).
I usually get a 3 to 4% response (in the old days, as it were) and although the response rate is slightly up to 5 or 6% overall, the two key differences have been the motivation of the respondees (they really want to sell, it's not a phone call to try and get me to value their land for development and then radio silence....) to date and the last 3 weeks has been worryingly busy - it's nearer 18-20% in responses.
As far as I'm concerned this is just the start - a big date is 25th December (rent day if you're on a 1954 Lease typically) for me - we've got the ending of the furlough scheme, lockdowns here, there, and everywhere and then Brexit on 31st December. I get the feeling that March/April next year is when things are really, really going to bite - and that we're in for some serious s
t over the next 2 to 4 years.The number of people I'm speaking to whom have lost businesses, or are ill or have divorced or have lost members of their family or right hand men/women from work or have hit financial meltdown or have just had enough, in the last 6 months has been awful - my job is to negotiate to buy land but you can't do an effective job at that unless you understand the background to the vendor, in my view - to understand what they want, what their timeframes are etc etc - in order to try and flex the deal terms and price etc to come to an equitable deal (sometimes it's simply not possible of course) but I find myself being confided in by alot of people - perhaps I'm one of the first people they've been able to speak to that isn't family or an employee perhaps; sometimes once the floodgates open I've not been able to stop them or wanted to - it's clearly needed by them and if that helps them then i see it as a good deed done.
Perhaps I should be more mercenary and just dictate terms and move on but I can't - I think other companies just ride roughshod over people and although I'd love the money that attitude brings, I can't do it myself. I try to build up trust this way (ultimately I'm being selfish of course - I want them to do the deal with me/company I work for).
When the initial lockdown finished, the response rate dropped (people were too busy with their businesses etc) but things started to get busy about 6 weeks ago and as I say, the last 3 weeks have been overwhelming. I've started to write to land that charities own (I usually don't because they typically have to go to the market, because of european law, the OJEU rules, dictate they have to achieve best value for their land ie they can't usually sell on a one-to-one basis) but with a charity client telling me how much financial hardship they are in have just started writing to them too - and I've been given over 100 acres by charities to assess in the last 3 weeks. Offered on 27 of that 100 so far. What's really surprising is how much of that land was bequeathed to them too - hundreds and hundreds of acres bequeathed to them. But I digress.
Edited by Oi_Oi_Savaloy on Wednesday 21st October 07:49
I think any predictions will be wrong that's just the nature of how this whole thing has panned out so far.
Here's an interesting statement I think is correct regarding Brexit though. Assuming they do actually press on with it the pandemic has masked most of of not almost all of impact. Certainly in my business we had two years of reading through treacle prior to the election last year and now right at the point when we would have been in complete financial meltdown people are out there spending. Maybe covid has given people a much needed sense of perspective.
Canute said:
I think the other thing to note, it's not really a recession we are facing (even if, the longer things drag-on, that will be the actual outcome) The economy was in relatively good condition prior to this with low-unemployment, the housing market a little overheated perhaps. But the economy was essentially put into hibernation by the lockdowns rather than some financial screw-ups.
The high-street has been on borrowed time for a decade, this is just the nail in the coffin.
Some legacy industries will fade away, new ones will pop-up and it's really a matter of riding out this storm until we get things sorted, hopefully before next summer!
Wages compared to living costs and housing have been really skewed for a long time now.The high-street has been on borrowed time for a decade, this is just the nail in the coffin.
Some legacy industries will fade away, new ones will pop-up and it's really a matter of riding out this storm until we get things sorted, hopefully before next summer!
High streets have been in trouble for a long time. Lots of businesses never really, properly recovered from the last recession. Many industries have been changed forever as a result of this pandemic.
You can't just turn an economy back on like a tap. It's going to take a long time to get things going again.
jammy-git said:
You can't just turn an economy back on like a tap. It's going to take a long time to get things going again.
Also, let's not forget that we're a long way from turning it back on. The 2nd wave is locking countries down again, left right and centre. A lot of businesses that are working are doing so with few staff/skeleton staff. A few are flying but in any situation like this there's always winners. Gassing Station | Business | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff