Gone very quiet
Discussion
I think that sort of money (3k+) high end anything will struggle over the next 12 months.
The outflow of peoples saved covid money is drying up, IMHO. If inflation remains sticky we might well have another tough winter but this time people will have spent their reserves.
Just my 2ps worth, might be totally wrong!
The outflow of peoples saved covid money is drying up, IMHO. If inflation remains sticky we might well have another tough winter but this time people will have spent their reserves.
Just my 2ps worth, might be totally wrong!
IMHO..
We are basically just starting to see the impact of the base rates going up.
So long as people can keep up with their mortgages I think we will be ok.
The down side is I can see the discretionary and motor sectors suffering whilst people tighten their belts.
I personally think the next 12 months is going to be toughest for the middle classes. Your average couple, late 30s with house hold income of £60-80k and 2 kids, 2 cars on PCP and 70%LTV mortgage.
IF the property market was to be hit (i.e defaults), well - I think its going to be chaos. But I dont think that will happen. The government is all about protecting the property market.
Things could change very quickly now though. If unemployment starts to go up its also not going to be good. It usually only takes 12 months for unemployment to spike and we are already trending up.
We are basically just starting to see the impact of the base rates going up.
So long as people can keep up with their mortgages I think we will be ok.
The down side is I can see the discretionary and motor sectors suffering whilst people tighten their belts.
I personally think the next 12 months is going to be toughest for the middle classes. Your average couple, late 30s with house hold income of £60-80k and 2 kids, 2 cars on PCP and 70%LTV mortgage.
IF the property market was to be hit (i.e defaults), well - I think its going to be chaos. But I dont think that will happen. The government is all about protecting the property market.
Things could change very quickly now though. If unemployment starts to go up its also not going to be good. It usually only takes 12 months for unemployment to spike and we are already trending up.
My regular kebab place is now £9.50 for a donner and top end is £14.50 for a mix.
Went in last night for 2 chicken kebabs and was £24!! Would have been cheaper to get the mix and share it tbh.
Known the owner for years and said to him everything getting expensive and he said costs are up again but also trade is down so he had no choice to put prices up again.
I was quite surprised he said trade was down as the uni students are back and he is basically surrounded by them.
Went in last night for 2 chicken kebabs and was £24!! Would have been cheaper to get the mix and share it tbh.
Known the owner for years and said to him everything getting expensive and he said costs are up again but also trade is down so he had no choice to put prices up again.
I was quite surprised he said trade was down as the uni students are back and he is basically surrounded by them.
US starting to wobble a bit more.
Jobs openings up today, which shows the economy might actually be getting stronger - which is a bad sign right now in a high inflation high interest rate environment. The economy (in the US) should be weakening which would bring inflation down.
Hopefully things stabilise a bit because if we get a correction it will probably shock Europe too.
Jobs openings up today, which shows the economy might actually be getting stronger - which is a bad sign right now in a high inflation high interest rate environment. The economy (in the US) should be weakening which would bring inflation down.
Hopefully things stabilise a bit because if we get a correction it will probably shock Europe too.
GardeningEcomm said:
WOW!
USA jobs report just out.
336k new jobs created last month versus forecast of 170k.
This has caught out all of the analysts/experts and suggests USA interest rates may have to rise again.
American economy 'seems' to be growing fast.
But take a look on business forums on social media such as Reddit and small businesses are seeing a drop in demand just like UK.
Very weird.
I suspect big firms perhaps looking towards better times ahead whereas smaller companies struggling in the 'here and now'???
Election in 2024.. they are going to prop it up if they can. I think rates will top out at 6% but they will try and keep out of recession by injecting more $$$ at the same time. Sounds nuts but its exactly what they did with SVB.USA jobs report just out.
336k new jobs created last month versus forecast of 170k.
This has caught out all of the analysts/experts and suggests USA interest rates may have to rise again.
American economy 'seems' to be growing fast.
But take a look on business forums on social media such as Reddit and small businesses are seeing a drop in demand just like UK.
Very weird.
I suspect big firms perhaps looking towards better times ahead whereas smaller companies struggling in the 'here and now'???
We are defo on a knife edge.
Needed a colour photo copy doing so nipped down to my local printer that I used to use when I ran my business..
They are on a small industrial estate of maybe 30 units and I have not been for 18 months now. I was shocked to see lots of vacant units.
I would say 70% were closed up, signage gone, car park spaces with weeds growing etc. Tried the door to the printers... locked... rang them up - he only does 3 days a week now as they are quiet.
Pretty shocking tbh. In the last 20 years I would say it was rare to see any empty units, maybe one or two but they would not stay empty for long. Sign of the times?
They are on a small industrial estate of maybe 30 units and I have not been for 18 months now. I was shocked to see lots of vacant units.
I would say 70% were closed up, signage gone, car park spaces with weeds growing etc. Tried the door to the printers... locked... rang them up - he only does 3 days a week now as they are quiet.
Pretty shocking tbh. In the last 20 years I would say it was rare to see any empty units, maybe one or two but they would not stay empty for long. Sign of the times?
I think the chances of a recession are increasing now. I thought we were going to get away with it but now it seems we are starting to see a lot more pressure on the economy.
There have been a lot of positive reports the last few weeks that the economy is doing better than expected and I dont like that, I dont like it at all.
Its been seen time and time again that recessions often come out of nowhere on the back of strong economic results. I would have much rather seen a bit of a wobble already.
The government are still quietly paying cost of living to a lot of people.
BoE rate decision due and I doubt its going to be a cut!!
There have been a lot of positive reports the last few weeks that the economy is doing better than expected and I dont like that, I dont like it at all.
Its been seen time and time again that recessions often come out of nowhere on the back of strong economic results. I would have much rather seen a bit of a wobble already.
The government are still quietly paying cost of living to a lot of people.
BoE rate decision due and I doubt its going to be a cut!!
MisanoPayments said:
Foreign exchange service:
Private clients - Quiet for ad-hoc transfers. Regular payments (pensions, bank account top ups) ongoing. Not unusual for time of year.
You have any clients in Thailand? Change in tax laws coming very soon just in case you didnt know about it.Private clients - Quiet for ad-hoc transfers. Regular payments (pensions, bank account top ups) ongoing. Not unusual for time of year.
Regy53 said:
albeit its not a one man band.
I think the sweet spot for a good indicator of how things are is to listen to businesses with more than 3 employees but less than 20.That 5 to 20 employee business, IME, feels the market situation a lot sooner than most.
A plumber with his sidekick can keep himself busy. Even if its sorting tools, cleaning the van etc on a slow day you can always find work. That tap that needed changing at your mates house. Etc.
A plumbers firm with 5 vans, someone in accounts, the parts buyer, website / phone bod, the 5 plumbers and their mates.... you quickly run into trouble if you dont have work. There is no hiding from it, you have to run at 80% or above.
Just my 2ps worth.
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