Property values?

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aceparts_com

3,724 posts

242 months

Monday 29th January 2007
quotequote all
victormeldrew said:
aceparts_com said:
victormeldrew said:

Can't help thinking of the couple of Math teachers that were in the papers the other week, with 700+ buy to lets and expanding on with their sights set on 1,000 properties. Their view was that as prices have always doubled every 7 years and demand will outstrip supply by a considerable margin for the forseeable future, it would be daft not to buy property.
Maybe they're talking the market up before dumping 700 properties on it? Dot.com all over again i say.
Oh sweet irony. You realize that dot.com is the polar opposite of "bricks and mortar", yes?




I do realise that it's a bubble. The beauty of bubbles is that you're never in one until it pops! You're always in new fundamentals supporting the new high plataeu of prices

aceparts_com

3,724 posts

242 months

Monday 29th January 2007
quotequote all
Let's not forget the amateur buy to let landlords taking the place of the traditional first time buyers.... www.pistonheads.co.uk/gassing/topic.asp?t=350392&f=92&h=0

aceparts_com

3,724 posts

242 months

Monday 29th January 2007
quotequote all
victormeldrew said:
aceparts_com said:
nothing to do with supply and demand as outside London there is plenty of supply otheriwse people would be living on the streets
Just today on the Rugby local news the local council were being taken to task for the homeless lists being at an all time high. You're just not talking from an informed viewpoint IHMO (and I'm being charitable there).

Rugby Advertiser said:
Storm brewing over homeless shelter plan

A STORM is brewing over proposals to convert a disused church into a homeless shelter.

As the Advertiser reported last week, plans are being launched to convert St. Philip's Church, in Wood Street, into a shelter for young homeless people.


You should tell them; they seem to think people are living in the streets!



Edited by victormeldrew on Monday 29th January 21:55


And if there were another 10,000 £200K luxury flats the situation would be the same. There's no property shortage, just a shortage of property at affordable prices.

victormeldrew

8,293 posts

278 months

Monday 29th January 2007
quotequote all
aceparts_com said:
And if there were another 10,000 £200K luxury flats the situation would be the same. There's no property shortage, just a shortage of property at affordable prices.
They built some flats in Rugby that sold for £47k last year. There are proposals to build 7,000-23,000 new homes in Rugby, just to meet government targets - and that's unlikely to happen. I don't know about other areas, but here there is a marked shortage. Houses are popping up on any scrap of land, they're packing new developments in like sardines, but demand is still outstripping supply. Sounds like a shortage of property to me.


Edited by victormeldrew on Monday 29th January 22:27

Egbert Nobacon

2,835 posts

244 months

Monday 29th January 2007
quotequote all
aceparts_com said:
Let's not forget the amateur buy to let landlords taking the place of the traditional first time buyers


This is one of the risks in the current market, especially outside of the Cities. Many of these new "landlords" are very highly geared and may panic and dump the property on to the market at the first sign of a slowdown, with consequences to the supply/demand/prices balance.

I was getting some valuations from an agent the other day and he mentioned that in certain roads 80% of the houses changing hands were being bought by amateur landlords.

As a landlord for the last 20 years I am wary of investing at the moment, the supply of empty rental properties is growing where I am based.

There will eventually be a re-adjustment - the question is how quickly it will happen and how far they will fall.






theboss

6,918 posts

220 months

Tuesday 30th January 2007
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victormeldrew said:
I find it hard to belive that rents are not at least "loosly coupled" to interest rates. They will eventually go up too, as part of the cost base for landlords which needs to be recovered.


This appears to be a common misconception amongst buy-to-let folk (I'm not talking about you specifically) - that rising costs can just be passed on to the 'tenant bitches'.

There's generally a good supply of rental homes and whatsmore rents are linked to or limited by what people actually take home each month, unlike house prices which are set by how much people can borrow. You don't (generally) see people borrowing to pay the rent.

Therefore if my landlord increases my rent this year I will simply fail to renew the tenancy. I already have an alternative and much nicer property lined up, for which I have negotiated a circa 20% discount on the advertised rent.

victormeldrew

8,293 posts

278 months

Tuesday 30th January 2007
quotequote all
theboss said:
victormeldrew said:
I find it hard to belive that rents are not at least "loosely coupled" to interest rates. They will eventually go up too, as part of the cost base for landlords which needs to be recovered.


This appears to be a common misconception amongst buy-to-let folk (I'm not talking about you specifically) - that rising costs can just be passed on to the 'tenant bitches'.

There's generally a good supply of rental homes and whatsmore rents are linked to or limited by what people actually take home each month, unlike house prices which are set by how much people can borrow. You don't (generally) see people borrowing to pay the rent.

Therefore if my landlord increases my rent this year I will simply fail to renew the tenancy. I already have an alternative and much nicer property lined up, for which I have negotiated a circa 20% discount on the advertised rent.
I think you misunderstand what I mean by "loosely coupled". It's an IT term used in systems integration. There probably isn't a direct link - that would be "tightly coupled" - but ultimately there is a link. Rental and mortgage costs ten or twenty years ago would have roughly the same relation as they do now. There is almost certainly a lag, where movements in mortgage costs will be tempered by rental market forces, but in the end rents will be influenced by mortgage costs. A greater proportion of "amateur landlords" will only increase the degree of influence and reduce the lag.

If house prices and/or mortgage rates increased significantly then renting out will become less attractive, houses will be sold, rental stock will go down, rents will go up, renting out will become more attractive.

IMHO.

superkartracer

8,959 posts

223 months

Wednesday 31st January 2007
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MGYoung said:
Hi there,

What is the general opinion of the PH massive on house prices over the next 12 months? Not looking to move house just interested in what people think. Decrease? 2% increase? 5% increase?

I know different places will change by different amounts but just thinking about the UK as a whole.

Thanks and all the best.



8% up again this year!, this time last year people said they will fall!! people I know sold, I stayed and hey another 10% up!! 35k thank's :-)

Ave house prise in 2010 will be 220k

aceparts_com

3,724 posts

242 months

Wednesday 31st January 2007
quotequote all
So are you going to get another £35K in debt to withdrawl the equity or just be happy to pay 10% more when you move up the ladder? Dun a dun a dun.... it's just an illusion (sorry, can't sing)

superkartracer

8,959 posts

223 months

Wednesday 31st January 2007
quotequote all
aceparts_com said:
So are you going to get another £35K in debt to withdrawl the equity or just be happy to pay 10% more when you move up the ladder? Dun a dun a dun.... it's just an illusion (sorry, can't sing)


No I'll sell it the end of the year and pocket the cash! as I have another house :-), point IS they won't go down this year. Easy money baby!


Edited by superkartracer on Wednesday 31st January 16:04

zed sump

3,140 posts

238 months

Wednesday 31st January 2007
quotequote all
news today: repossesssssssions up 70% in 2006 . . . against 2005!

victormeldrew

8,293 posts

278 months

Thursday 1st February 2007
quotequote all
aceparts_com said:
So are you going to get another £35K in debt to withdrawl the equity or just be happy to pay 10% more when you move up the ladder? Dun a dun a dun.... it's just an illusion (sorry, can't sing)
Neither could they, allegedly.

Smartie

2,604 posts

274 months

Thursday 1st February 2007
quotequote all
zed sump said:
news today: repossesssssssions up 70% in 2006 . . . against 2005!


Very much connected to the change in bankruptcy laws I should think!

superkartracer

8,959 posts

223 months

Thursday 1st February 2007
quotequote all
aceparts_com said:
So are you going to get another £35K in debt to withdrawl the equity or just be happy to pay 10% more when you move up the ladder? Dun a dun a dun.... it's just an illusion (sorry, can't sing)


Anyway!! why would I want to move ;-)

www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?p=1&f=99&t=326119&h=0


Edited by superkartracer on Thursday 1st February 12:14

aceparts_com

3,724 posts

242 months

Thursday 1st February 2007
quotequote all
superkartracer said:
aceparts_com said:
So are you going to get another £35K in debt to withdrawl the equity or just be happy to pay 10% more when you move up the ladder? Dun a dun a dun.... it's just an illusion (sorry, can't sing)


Anyway!! why would I want to move ;-)

www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?p=1&f=99&t=326119&h=0


Edited by superkartracer on Thursday 1st February 12:14


maybe to live somewhere more upmarket?

www.pistonheads.com/sales/list.asp?s=258

ha ha ha

superkartracer

8,959 posts

223 months

Thursday 1st February 2007
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Yes mate....

stevieb

5,252 posts

268 months

Thursday 1st February 2007
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I am a bit late to this discussion but as i have just purchased my new house, i am shocked at the demand that is out there at the moment. We purchased for a reasonable price and only a £10k more than the property was purchased for in 2004 around a 3% increase over the 2.5 years. Needless to say a property 3 doors away on the same identical to our has just been put on the market for 45k more and was sold within 24hours of going on the market.

The market is still boyant even with the possible increases with the interest rate people are still looking to get on the housing ladder and get out of the rental trap.

The rent where i am at the moment is around £1000 for a small 2 bed terrace, or £1100 for a average size family home (3-bed with garage) Even with the current risk involved with a housing market crash i would still buy, as the general trend for house prices is up over time and if you are buying for the longer term then all the market fluctuations should even out.

Steve

zed sump

3,140 posts

238 months

Thursday 1st February 2007
quotequote all
stevieb said:
... as the general trend for house prices is up over time and if you are buying for the longer term then all the market fluctuations should even out.

Steve


...just as long as you're not on a tracker if the interest soars in the next 2-5 years.

stevieb

5,252 posts

268 months

Friday 2nd February 2007
quotequote all
zed sump said:
stevieb said:
... as the general trend for house prices is up over time and if you are buying for the longer term then all the market fluctuations should even out.

Steve


...just as long as you're not on a tracker if the interest soars in the next 2-5 years.


No Fixed at 4.99 for 5 year